Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Thursday Night Football should be viewed as an island unto itself in the scope of the DFS NFL scene. With the Thursday Night game being nationally televised, representing the beginning of each week’s action, and being separated from the slate’s other games by multiple days, ownership of these players tends to be greater than it would be otherwise. As a result, the rostering decisions you make with respect to the Thursday Night game are far more binary than normal.
Each week, we’ll be previewing this game with the intention of finding cash game and GPP plays. However, because of the higher ownership that comes with Thursday Night players, there are generally fewer contrarian options to target from this game, relative to the other games contained in a weekly slate. It follows that since top options from the Thursday Night game are going to have a greater rate of ownership than similarly valued pieces from other games, we will often recommend such players as cash game plays, as a means of preventing an early deficit across the majority of your cash games.
Concerning GPPs, you will notice that we tend to highlight few players from the Thursday Night game as ideal tournament options. Our Steve Buzzard wrote a great article on the importance and impact of selecting tournament plays that have are likely to have lower ownership. Applying that logic in practice, the decision to fade the popular players from Thursday night games, that we know are likely to be more heavily owned than they should be, can enhance your standing relative to the field far more than if this game was being played in a different timeslot.
GAME SCRIPT
Thursday will mark the third consecutive year that we have been subjected to a Thursday night showdown featuring the Jaguars and Titans. To say the least, the previous two Thursday meetings have produced less than satisfactory offensive performances, with the Jaguars winning both matchups, by the score of 19-13 in 2015 and 21-13 in 2014. While a sample size of two games does not necessarily hold predictive value, it does re-emphasize a key point that we try to be mindful of when assessing Thursday night games: that teams on short weeks tend to perform worse offensively - and this is even more magnified with these two middling clubs playing under the lights this week.
The Jaguars’ overall ineptitude on offense is likely to be the biggest contributor to the outcome of this game. Blake Bortles has struggled mightily, especially in recent weeks, and on a short turnaround after botching a prime opportunity to inspire confidence against the Raiders, it’s difficult to expect that the light switch will suddenly go on. I fully expect the Titans to cover the 3.5 spread in this game, and feel that the 43 point total in this game will only be hit if the Jaguars manage to get it together when they have the ball. A prediction of a 24-17 Titans victory conveys how I feel about the likelihood of that happening.
RUNNING GAME
The Jaguars’ run game has essentially been non-existent this year. Even early on in the 2016 season when Chris Ivory was missing time, the team did not run enough (or block effectively enough) for T.J. Yeldon to churn out viable fantasy performances. Now, the committee of Yeldon and Ivory have been splitting the touches allocated to the running back position, with neither approaching weekly relevance. Considering that neither back amassed over 75 yards on the ground in 2016, and that the Titans come in allowing only 3.9 yards per carry and a stout 87 yards per game (6th best in the league), we can safely exclude the Jaguars running backs from the playability radar.
At the outset of the 2016 season, we laughed at the commitment that the Titans expressed to the run and the ridiculous term of ‘Exotic Smash Mouth’ that they used to describe their offensive philosophy. Seven games in however, the Titans have stuck to their mantra, relying heavily on their talented backfield and minimizing the burden placed on Marcus Mariota. The main benefactor of this approach has been running back Demarco Murray , who has produced double digit fantasy points in every game thus far this season. Murray has been especially leaned of late, receiving at least 20 carries in each of the team’s last three games, and averaging 98 yards rushing in that span. In the ever changing and evolving world that is the running back landscape, Murray has been a constant as the season’s first half winds down. The Jaguars’ run defense has had the benefit of late of facing some of the least effective running units in the NFL – the Colts, Raiders, Bears in their last three games – which has certainly contributed to the impressive 3.9 yards per carry that they are allowing. The Titans however, should be committed to running the ball all four quarters on Thursday, resulting in Murray once again seeing at least 20 touches. With volume not being a question, and facing a unit that is allowing a score per game on the ground, Demarco Murray is your best cash game option from this game.
PASSING GAME
There is little reason to expect a positive outcome from Blake Bortles this Thursday. The Jaguars’ quarterback has had plum matchups two of the past three weeks, against the Colts and Raiders, and has failed to throw for more than 250 yards in either of them. This past week’s effort, at home against Oakland’s last ranked pass defense, was especially un-encouraging. It took a 96 yard fourth quarter drive - entirely navigated through the air - for Bortles to amass a ‘passable’ 246 yards passing. Though in 2015, Bortles and the Jaguars were uninspiring as a team, the quarterback was at least able to take advantage of ‘garbage time’ and compile fantasy stats late in games as he attempted to lead the team back from large deficits. This year, however, Bortles has been unable to even take advantage of such accommodating circumstances, as the Jaguars continue to fall behind in games, but the offense has generally shown a lack of life as a whole. I’ll be resisting the temptation of searching for a contrarian bounce back game from Bortles this Thursday, as his incompetency has inspired that little confidence.
Bortles’ poor play has directly impacted the fantasy viability of his once-dynamic receiving tandem of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. Both have had largely ineffective 2016 campaigns, and while regression was widely expected from Hurns – as he turned in an extremely touchdown-dependent 2015 campaign – Robinson has received weekly scrutiny for his repeated disappointing efforts. There is no doubting his talent, but with his price remaining in the elite wide receiver range, and his production unfortunately tied directly to Bortles’ ability to get him the ball, I recommend passing on him until he starts to show signs of reverting to 2015 form. Marqise Lee has surprisingly shown signs of life in recent weeks, including a seven catch, 107 yard turnout on Sunday. His intermediate route running usage is a fine compliment to Hurns and Robinson who excel on downfield routes, and even though he has been mostly disappointing (and injured) in his time in the NFL, it was not too long ago that he was a dominating presence at USC. His recent uptick in targets and production could just be a flash in the pan, but at bottom barrel pricing, investing a GPP share or two in a quest for 3-4x value could be a rewarding way to start out this slate.
Looking exclusively at Marcus Mariota’s fantasy totals from recent weeks would instill confidence in his ability to consistently put up usable outputs, but I feel that there is some cause for caution here. Mariota has accounted for eight touchdowns through the air in the last three weeks, but has only thrown for an average of 226 yards per game in that time. Touchdowns do of course buoy and contribute greatly to the strongest of statistical performances but I would be hesitant using them as a basis for future projection, as touchdowns are a stat is subject to regression. I become ever more hesitant to invest in Mariota when considering that the Jaguars pass defense is only allowing 215 yards per game. Given the Titans’ offensive identity of run first (second, and third) I feel comfortable avoiding Mariota in this matchup.
The Titans options at the wide receiver position looked bleak at the outset of the year, but as the season began a potential hero emerged in the form of rookie Tajae Sharpe. Unfortunately, after a promising opening to the season, Sharpe’s game has regressed and additionally he has battled a hamstring injury of late. Even though he, fortunately, qualifies at tight end, Delanie Walker has been the Titans’ best pass catcher, leading the team in receptions, receiving yards and receiving scores. He has been especially effective of late, compiling a 7-84-1 line last week, and an output of 5-66-1 three weeks ago. Even in an offense that does not want to throw the ball an exceedingly high amount of times, as the team’s only real threat in the passing game, I’ll be looking to allocate a portion of tournament shares in his direction.
SUMMARY
On the whole, this will likely be a less than watchable game, but there should be some usable fantasy production. The Titans’ weekly commitment to Demarco Murray has him firmly in play for cash games, while I also like Delanie Walker, in tournaments, as he has been proven to be the team’s only real threat in the passing game. I am largely avoiding the Jaguars as a unit, given the downward trajectory their season has been on thanks to poor play from Blake Bortles. Sneaking Marquise Lee into a tournament lineup or two is the one point of exposure I am considering, given his recent performance and modest price.