Thursday Night Football should be viewed as an island unto itself in the scope of the DFS NFL scene. With the Thursday Night game being nationally televised, representing the beginning of each week’s action, and being separated from the slate’s other games by multiple days, ownership of these players tends to be greater than it would be otherwise. As a result, the rostering decisions you make with respect to the Thursday Night game are far more binary than normal.
Each week, we’ll be previewing this game with the intention of finding cash game and GPP plays. However, because of the higher ownership that comes with Thursday Night players, there are generally fewer contrarian options to target from this game, relative to the other games contained in a weekly slate. It follows that since top options from the Thursday Night game are going to have a greater rate of ownership than similarly valued pieces from other games, we will often recommend such players as cash game plays, as a means of preventing an early deficit across the majority of your cash games.
Concerning GPPs, you will notice that we tend to highlight few players from the Thursday Night game as ideal tournament options. Our Steve Buzzard wrote a great article on the importance and impact of selecting tournament plays that have are likely to have lower ownership. Applying that logic in practice, the decision to fade the popular players from Thursday night games, that we know are likely to be more heavily owned than they should be, can enhance your standing relative to the field far more than if this game was being played in a different timeslot.
GAME SCRIPT
The first thing that jumped out to me from this game with respect to projected ‘game script’ was the likelihood that both teams are pressed into a pass-heavy approach on Offense. Though the Bears have enjoyed success on the ground recently running the ball, the Packers boast the statistically best run defense in football – even after getting gashed by the Cowboys and Ezekiel Elliot this past weekend. While the Bears are not exactly stout against the run, the Packers are reeling at running back. James Starks is set to miss extended time with a knee injury and Eddie Lacy was just reported on Tuesday as being out indefinitely. It would not be surprising to see 80 pass attempts between these two teams on Thursday.
Though the potentially large quantity of pass attempts should translate to fantasy points in some respect, it’s difficult to expect too much in the department of actual points. Both teams have struggled executing in the red zone, with the Packers and Bears ranking 20th and 25th, respectively, in Red Zone Scoring Percentage (Touchdown Only). The impact of that statistic is especially with the Bears, as they are averaging the seventh most yards per game in the league, but have only topped 20 points on one occasion.
The Packers being 7.5 point favorites is likely more of an ode to their history, reputation, and home field advantage than the team’s actual performance in 2016. That being said, I do see them pulling out a win, and the game going over the set total of 46 points, by a score of 27-24.
RUNNING GAME
In the traditional sense, the running game outlook looks pretty bleak this week. The Packers are only allowing 3.0 yards per carry and 72 yards per game - best in the league in both categories. Take out last week’s gashing at the hands of the Cowboys and those numbers become even more imposing at 1.99 yards per carry and 43 yards per game. With Jordan Howard’s reduction in snap percentage from 95% in week five to 69% in week 6, and his price still hovering at the higher end for running backs, he is an easy fade for me in this matchup. If the matchup were better, I could get behind rostering minimum priced KaDeem Carey – whose return to health and competence has resulted in Howard’s lessening role, but I just don’t see material upside here, even if he continues to creep toward an almost even split with Howard (in terms of snaps).
With Eddie Lacy and James Starks ruled out, the Packers are in full desperation mode at the running back position. Though they traded for Knile Davis earlier this week, it is difficult to imagine that he will have a material role on a short week with such a limited knowledge of the offense in conjunction with minimal actual practice time with the team. When Don Jackson receives a carry on Thursday it will be his first in the NFL – but it is possible, if not probable that he will lead the backfield in carries this week. However, I do not feel confident that he will post a useful stat line, unless he finds the end zone, as he has yet to demonstrate any sort of receiving capability, and the Packers are likely to be very pass-heavy this week. Ty Montgomery saw 12 targets this past week, turning them into 10 catches and 98 yards. He largely operated out of the backfield after Lacy went down with an ankle injury. The expectation this week is that once again Montgomery will see a large role in the Packers backfield. I expect him to be heavily owned, as players look to take advantage of a “running back” that has wide receiver eligibility. While I do not love his ceiling, on sites where he is at or near minimum salary, Montgomery is someone to look at as a cash game play – if only as a theoretical “block.” I will be fading him in tournaments all together.
PASSING GAME
Brian Hoyer has attempted at least 36 passes in each of the four games he has started this year, thrown for over 300 yards in each of them, and amazingly has yet to throw an interception. It is easy to write him off based on his middling history, but during the 2016 season Hoyer has been a stud. This week he faces a Packers defense that has been carved up on multiple occasions to start the season, and will be without their top three cornerbacks this week. Couple this with the Packers dominance against opponents’ running games, and Hoyer should be expected to throw often on Thursday. He is priced in the same tier as relatively undesirable options, and overall shapes up as a solid cash game play this week.
Hoyers’ top two targets, Cameron Meredith and Alshon Jeffery, combined to be targeted on 28 of his 49 pass attempts, with Meredith seeing 15 to Jeffery’s 13. I actually like both of these receivers this week as the matchup and projected target count should work in their favor. Meredith is my preference in cash games, due to his reduced price (relative to Jeffrey) and relatively easy path he should have to hitting value even if he does not score a touchdown. Though Jeffrey is undoubtedly the superior talent, the team does not make a conscious effort to feed Jeffery targets at Meredith’s expense – and the talent advantage and red zone fortitude that Jeffery possesses does not make him a shoe in to an acceptable fantasy output. That being said, Jeffery saw a season high in targets last week, and could easily go off for a big game in this plum matchup – making him one of my favorite tournament plays at receiver, at the outset of this week.
Aaron Rodgers continues to be priced as an elite quarterback option even though he has not performed as such this season. This game is definitely shaping up in his favor, with the Packers missing their top two running backs, but I do not see this as a reason by itself why Rodgers will suddenly play better. The projected volume should lend itself to a relatively high floor, but Rodgers will have to ascend to the level of play better associated with his prior campaigns in order to really return value. Given his price, he is not in play for me in cash games, though I can get behind him as a tournament option. In years past we have seen Randall Cobb take on a sizeable backfield role when the Packers have been short of running back options, but with Ty Montgomery proving capable in that capacity, the uptick in usage that Cobb is slated to receive in the Packers backfield is minimal. Cobb has been seeing a solid allotment of targets in recent weeks though and I believe does have a fairly high floor this week. However, even in a vacuum against Cameron Meredith, who is priced much more affordably and should see a comparable amount of targets, Cobb does not have real appeal to me. If I am using Aaron Rodgers in a tournament lineup, I am likely tying him to Jordy Nelson, who is the Packers only real downfield target – especially now with Davante Adams looking possible to miss this game due to a concussion. Simply put, an elite Rodgers performance would directly correlate to a big Jordy Nelson game, as Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb are far more likely to be involved in close proximity to the line of scrimmage.
SUMMARY
This game is probably the most intriguing from a fantasy perspective that we have seen so far this season. Even though minimal damage should be done via the running game, both teams could have big games throwing the ball. Whether or not the quarterbacks are efficient with their pass attempts and effective in the red zone will determine if the pass-heavy game flow actually translates to actual points. I feel comfortable rolling with Brian Hoyer and Cameron Merdeith in cash games given their relatively affordable prices, while I am looking at the tandem of Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson more in tournaments. Though I do not love Ty Montgomery, his projected involvement in the passing game makes him someone I am looking at as a potential “block” in cash games on sites where his price is at or near the minimum.