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Thursday Night Football should be viewed as an island unto itself in the scope of the DFS NFL scene. With the Thursday Night game being nationally televised, representing the beginning of each week’s action, and being separated from the slate’s other games by multiple days, ownership of these players tends to be greater than it would be otherwise. As a result, the rostering decisions you make with respect to the Thursday Night game are far more binary than normal.
Each week, we’ll be previewing this game with the intention of finding cash game and GPP plays. However, because of the higher ownership that comes with Thursday Night players, there are generally fewer contrarian options to target from this game, relative to the other games contained in a weekly slate. It follows that since top options from the Thursday Night game are going to have a greater rate of ownership than similarly valued pieces from other games, we will often recommend such players as cash game plays, as a means of preventing an early deficit across the majority of your cash games.
Concerning GPPs, you will notice that we tend to highlight few players from the Thursday Night game as ideal tournament options. Our Steve Buzzard wrote a great article on the importance and impact of selecting tournament plays that have are likely to have lower ownership. Applying that logic in practice, the decision to fade the popular players from Thursday night games, that we know are likely to be more heavily owned than they should be, can enhance your standing relative to the field far more than if this game was being played in a different timeslot.
GAME SCRIPT
The Over/Under of 45 points in this game admittedly seems high to me. The offensive weakenesses of these teams appear to be setting up to clash the defenses’s strengths, and both teams’ offenses are not geared to attack the weak points of their opponents. The Chargers come in having thrown for the third most yards in the league so far, but now face a Broncos defense that has shut down opposing quarterbacks all season. Meanwhile, the Broncos have been succeptible to strong running games, but the Chargers really seem to only lean on the run once they get close to the goal line. The Broncos would certainly love to establish a strong running game, as they have looked to do all season, coming in with the sixth most rush attempts in 2016. However, the Chargers have shut down opponents on the ground this year, only allowing 3.6 yards per carry. The Chargers have in fact been very succeptible to being beaten through the air, allowing the third most passing yards in the league. Coming off of a shoulder injury though, it is very questionable if Trevor Siemian can take advantage of that deficiency.
San Diego to this point has not faced a defense of nearly the quality of the Broncos, and I feel that that will be the difference in this game. So far the Chargers’ opponents have ranked (in yards per game allowed): 7th, 21st, 30th, 31st, and 32nd. This game should be a rude awakening for what has so far been smooth ride for the Chargers offense. The spread is currently set at Denver as a 3 point favorite, and I can get behind that, but not nearly at the 45 point game total. I see the Broncos prevailing by a score of 20-14.
RUNNING GAME
Melvin Gordon has been a fantasy asset this year, largely as a result of his seven total touchdowns in the season’s first five weeks. While that amassing of touchdowns has been borderline extraordinary, Gordon has done little else, as he’s averaged only 3.4 yards per carry. My takeaway from this, is that Gordon can cross the finish line, but he relies on Phillip Rivers to get him to the home stretch. That sets up as a problematic success plan, as Rivers is very likely to struggle against Denver’s elite pass defense. I do not see him as an attractive play this week, as I think his upside is severely capped and his floor is very limited, as well.
C.J. Anderson showed early in the season that he was a capable of serviceable performances in a high-volume role, churning out nice fantasy efforts in the first two games, while receiving 25 touches in each. Anderson’s allotment has been eroded in recent weeks, as the team has made a concerted effort to work in rookie Devontae Booker. As a result, Anderson has only averaged 17.67 touches over the past three weeks. Going up against a defense that has not allowed more than 82 yards on the ground to a player this season, Anderson is a player I feel comfortable having no part of. Additionally, even thought Booker’s role is steadily increasing, he still feels best classified as a nuisance to Anderson than a potential asset to DFS players.
PASSING GAME
The Broncos’ pass defense has been an absolute nightmare for opposing offenses so far in 2016, allowing only 186 yards per game. They’ve given up all of three touchdowns through the air, and only one to a non-running back – Kelvin Benjamin scored on the first possession of the first game of the season. The Chargers seem ill-equipped to challenge this juggernaut. With their best receiver Keenan Allen sidelined for the remainder of the campaign, and Dexter McCluster doing a poor impersonation of injured Danny Woodhead, I do not see success for Phillip Rivers and company this week. Even with a potentially pass heavy gameplan, Rivers does not seem set up for a big day here, as the Broncos recently shut down the Colts and Buccaneers who both came with similarly unbalanced, pass heavy offenses. Up until this point, the Chargers have faced mostly poor pass defenses, which along with game script, has a contributed to a strong early season performance for this unit, even as they’ve battled injury. Tyrell Williams in particular has had a string of nice games to start 2016, but he and the unit as a whole have yet to face a test remotely close to what they will be in for this Thursday. I’m fading the Chargers passing game entirely.
Trevor Siemian is back for the Broncos at quarterback, after missing last week’s game against the Falcons. While that may not sound like much of a cause for relief, after Paxton Lynch torpedoed the Broncos’ offensive productictivity, Siemian will be welcomed with open arms. Siemian missed last week’s game due to an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, and while he’s going to suit up, I do have concern over his ability to drive the ball from hash to hash. Throwing a football effectively requires full use of your body: even pain in your non-throwing shoulder can severely impact your effectiveness. Additionally, he’s one serious hit from re-injury. Even in a good matchup, I do not see substantial enough reward to warrant throwing Siemian in your lineups. The Broncos passing offense is not necessarily predicated throwing down the field, as evidenced by this statistic: among the top 40 receiving yardage leaders in 2016, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders rank 25th and 27th respectively in air yardage per catch. Because of this, I am not overly concerned about Siemian being able to execute a well-balanced game plan. Since complaining about his role in the offense in mid-September, Sanders has seen an average of 11.67 targets in the three games that followed, in contrast to the 7 targets per game that Thomas has averaged in that time frame. Sanders has been extremely effective in that window – scoring three touchdowns and averaging 95 yards per game. He is my pick to have the best fantasy performance of any one player in this game, and I am looking to use him in both cash and tournament lineups. I will probably have some exposure to Thomas in GPPs as a hedge to my Sanders exposure, but overall I feel far more confident in Sanders this week.
SUMMARY
I do not envision this as being the most exciting game from a fantasy perspective. My main play will be Emmanuel Sanders and I’ll be incorporating some exposure to Demaryius Thomas, mostly as a hedge. I am steering clear of the Chargers as a team, as I think that expecting anything near the output that they have been producing so far in 2016 would be foolish, in light of their soft early season schedule and the tremendous test the Broncos defense represents.