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Thursday Night Football should be viewed as an island unto itself in the scope of the DFS NFL scene. With the Thursday Night game being nationally televised, representing the beginning of each week’s action, and being separated from the slate’s other games by multiple days, ownership of these players tends to be greater than it would be otherwise. As a result, the rostering decisions you make with respect to the Thursday Night game are far more binary than normal.
Each week, we’ll be previewing this game with the intention of finding cash game and GPP plays. However, because of the higher ownership that comes with Thursday Night players, there are generally fewer contrarian options to target from this game, relative to the other games contained in a weekly slate. It follows that since top options from the Thursday Night game are going to have a greater rate of ownership than similarly valued pieces from other games, we will often recommend such players as cash game plays, as a means of preventing an early deficit across the majority of your cash games.
Concerning GPPs, you will notice that we tend to highlight few players from the Thursday Night game as ideal tournament options. Our Steve Buzzard wrote a great article on the importance and impact of selecting tournament plays that have are likely to have lower ownership. Applying that logic in practice, the decision to fade the popular players from Thursday night games, that we know are likely to be more heavily owned than they should be, can enhance your standing relative to the field far more than if this game was being played in a different timeslot.
GAME SCRIPT
It’s apparent from the point spread that has Arizona as (only) four point road favorites against the lowly 49ers, that Vegas is begging you to take the Cardinals. That relatively small point spread can be largely attributed to the status of Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer, who suffered a concussion in last week’s game and is unlikely to play in this game, as he has yet to be medically cleared. Though the coaching staff still holds out hope that Palmer suits up, it’s not realistic, especially on such a short turnaround that he will dress, even in a backup role, for Thursday’s affair.
If you took a cursory glance at the number of plays run or time of possession, the 49ers would not jump out to you as a wildly attractive matchup, game script wise, ranking 24th in plays run so far in 2016, and 31st in Time of Possession. However, if we look at the ‘pace of play’ we can see that these 49ers are still playing in line with the reputation that Chip Kelly has long established, running a play every 25 seconds that they have the ball, quickest in the NFL. The Cardinals are not exactly stuck in molasses either, coming in 7th, at a play every 26.52 seconds. What this should mean is that even if we do not see a bevy of points scored in this game – as a result of incompetence at the quarterback position – there still should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy points in the form of yards. The over/under of 43 points seems fair, as Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton are not likely to set the world on fire, but do not approach this game with cold feet and hesitancy. Even without Carson Palmer, I cannot see the Cardinals falling to this 49ers team, and I see the road team prevailing 30-17.
RUNNING GAME
This game offers us one of the first truly chalky Thursday Night plays of the 2016 season, as the masses are bound to be in on David Johnson. The 49ers have proven exceptionally incompetent against the run so far this year, giving up 100 yards on the ground to an individual runner each of the last three weeks. The floodgates really opened though this past Sunday against the Cowboys when linebacker Navorro Bowman tore his ACL midway through the game, directly leading to Ezekiel Elliot’s best day as a professional. Arizona’s Johnson is a great cash game building this week, and if nothing else I want to roster him and block my opponent from potentially getting out to an insurmountable early advantage.
Carlos Hyde is also in an attractive spot this Thursday. Despite falling behind early in two of their games, and averaging only 3.6 yards per game as a team, the 49ers have remained committed to the run and are 10th in the league in yards per game, averaging 114 per contest. Carlos Hyde has been the beneficiary of that run-oriented gameplan, scoring five touchdowns so far, and seeing at least 16 touches in every game. I do not think the Cardinals will be able to steer the stubborn 49ers away from their run oriented approach, especially with Carson Palmer sidelined, and I see Hyde as a lock for 20 touches this week. A multiple touchdown, volume driven performance could be in the cards here, and I like Hyde as a tournament play to compliment my David Johnson cash game investment.
PASSING GAME
Both quarterbacks in this game have the upside to potentially offer you a serviceable fantasy output, but I cannot say that I find either intriguing enough to actually roster. Drew Stanton performed adequately at times when filling in for Carson Palmer in 2014, but he did not look particularly good in limited duty last year, and put forth a horrific performance last week after Palmer left with a concussion. Bruce Arians has showed that he will continue to take deep shots even when his starting quarterback is on the sidelines, and while that is commendable of him, I still expect a gameplan that revolves around David Johnson. Similarly, though Blaine Gabbert does have the 49ers fast paced offense working in his favor, his own deficiencies as well as the obvious limitations of the pass catchers around him severely curb his upside. Additionally, though the 49ers do play at a breakneck pace, Chip Kelly obviously recognizes what he is working with, which is why the team is only throwing the ball 48 percent of the time on offense. Despite reasonable prices, I’m staying clear of these quarterbacks, as I’m not seeing enough potential reward to accompany the serious risk associated with them.
Drew Stanton’s presence in the Cardinals huddle of course downgrades their receivers, but not to the point where we can entirely dismiss them as options. Larry Fitzgerald has been the most solid of the starting trio, catching at least five passes in every game this year. Unfortunately, as a player whose game has become more driven by volume as he has (elegantly) aged, a run-centric gameplan probably isn’t an ideal scenario for Fitzgerald to thrive in. Michael Floyd has been scarily inefficient so far in 2016, only hauling in 12 of 31 targets. Though that can partially be ascribed to lackluster performances by his quarterback, Floyd does not exactly gain appeal this week, in light of the team’s quarterback situation. John Brown is coming off of a pair of double digit target games, which is particularly comforting given his tandem of ghost-like performances in weeks one and two. Interestingly, Brown has historically been more of a home run hitter than possession receiver, I am interpreting the recent change in events more to the team’s commitment to integrating him into the offense, than changing his defined role within the gameplan. Brown still of course has the jets to take the top off of a defense, and he will likely need to account for a big play or two in order to return value this week. Of the three Cardinals receivers, Brown is my favorite option, though I prefer to use him in tournaments over cash games.
The pass catcher that “excites” me the most from the 49ers is Garrett Celek. He delivered the line of five catches for 79 yards last week, and while that can be mostly attributed to Vance McDonald being inactive, McDonald’s status once again is unclear. Now, I am only looking at Celek if McDonald is inactive, but you would effectively be getting a team’s number two receiving target a near minimum price. If you are looking to save at the Tight End position, Celek should be on your radar. Jeremy Kerley does look to be establishing himself as the 49ers’ top receiver, but even at bargain pricing, I am not willing to commit one of my Receiver slots to a player with such limited upside.
SUMMARY
David Johnson is a rock solid cash game play this week, and I’ll be building lineups around him. The 49ers usage of Carlos Hyde, even in games in which they fall behind, is very comforting, and I’ll be crafting tournament lineups with him in mind. The passing options are far less appealing in this game, as I’ll be avoiding the quarterbacks entirely. John Brown is the lone receiver likely to make my lineups, and only in GPPs, while Garrett Celek makes sense as a minimum priced tight end – assuming Vance McDonald is ruled out.