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Thursday Night Football should be viewed as an island unto itself in the scope of the DFS NFL scene. With the Thursday Night game being nationally televised, representing the beginning of each week’s action, and being separated from the slate’s other games by multiple days, ownership of these players tends to be greater than it would be otherwise. As a result, the rostering decisions you make with respect to the Thursday Night game are far more binary than normal.
Each week, we’ll be previewing this game with the intention of finding cash game and GPP plays. However, because of the higher ownership that comes with Thursday Night players, there are generally fewer contrarian options to target from this game, relative to the other games contained in a weekly slate. It follows that since top options from the Thursday Night game are going to have a greater rate of ownership than similarly valued pieces from other games, we will often recommend such players as cash game plays, as a means of preventing an early deficit across the majority of your cash games.
Concerning GPPs, you will notice that we tend to highlight few players from the Thursday Night game as ideal tournament options. Our Steve Buzzard wrote a great article on the importance and impact of selecting tournament plays that have are likely to have lower ownership. Applying that logic in practice, the decision to fade the popular players from Thursday night games, that we know are likely to be more heavily owned than they should be, can enhance your standing relative to the field far more than if this game was being played in a different timeslot.
GAME SCRIPT
This Thursday’s game certainly is not setting up to be one of the higher scoring matchups of the weekend. An over/under of 40 points establishes a reasonable baseline for expected offensive output, and the recent history between these teams - identical 22-17 Bills victories in both 2015 meetings – corroborates this expectation.
With the Jets being one point favorites, the implied score has the Jets edging the Bills 20.5-19.5. Both teams’ offensive strengths play into the teeth of their opposition’s defense. The Jets’ receiving duo will be going up against one of the best cornerback combos in the NFL, while the Bills’ desire to run the ball will be tested by a perennially tough Jets run defense. The 40 point game total may seem low, but factoring in how these teams looked last week, and the glove-like fit of these defenses on the offenses, we don’t even see that paltry amount of points being hit. Touchdowns, and even field goals will be tough to come by this week, as the Jets sneak by on the road, 17-13.
RUNNING GAME
The primary running backs in this game, Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy were two of only nine at the position to play more than 75 percent of their teams snaps in week one. While that certainly establishes a strong baseline for how we can expect them to be integrated into what should be a very close game this week, the matchups that the two are facing are quite polarizing.
Though we tend to associate a strong overall defense, and high-impact defense fronts, with Buffalo coach Rex Ryan, the Bills have been vulnerable against the run during his tenure. Discount last week’s stellar performance against a Ravens team that lacks any real threat on the ground, and look back to last year when the Bills allowed 4.47 yards per carry – good for 25th in the league. Not to say that all things are equal from 2015 to 2016, but two of the pieces that the Bills brought in to try and address their defensive shortcomings – Shaq Lawson and Reggie Raglund – have yet to see the field due to injury and will miss this week as well. Additionally, working in Matt Forte’s favor is the quality of Buffalo’s secondary. With Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby set to blanket the Jets’ top two weapons in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, Forte should have ample opportunity to put his superior pass catching skills on display. Game script, snap count, and offensive role are all working in Matt Forte’s favor this week. Priced as the every down player, but not elite option, that he is, Matt Forte should be considered a solid option for cash games.
Forte’s counterpart, LeSean McCoy, in addition to having a dominant role in his team’s gameplan, produced decently in week one, totaling 70 yards on 16 rushes and 4 catches, with a touchdown. Considering the (lack of) depth behind him, McCoy’s role is by no means in question – he should once again be a near lock for close to 20 touches. The problem here though, is that he’s going up against one of the best run defenses in the NFL: the Jets allowed only 57 yards rushing in week one, and gave up an average of 3.58 yards per carry in 2015, 3rd best in the league. This Jets defense is of course also keen on the fact that Buffalo’s best weapon in the passing game will either be on the sidelines, or severely hobbled. Factor in Tyrod Taylor’s ineffectiveness this past week, only throwing for 111 yards against Baltimore, and it’s fair to expect the Jets to stack the box early and often against McCoy. Guaranteed touches at the running back position are always coveted, especially in today’s pass happy NFL, but paying a premium percentage of your salary for a player in this bad of a matchup is not recommended.
PASSING GAME
The Jets passing game worries me this week. If we take a look back at the two matchups between these two teams from 2015, they seem to tell two very different stories. In the first meeting, the Jets’ top two receivers, Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall were largely contained, only amassing 108 yards and a touchdown. However in the week 17 rematch, the dup combined for 176 yards and 2 scores. What changed? Well, in that week 17 matchup, the Bills top two cover corners, Ronald Darby and Stephon Gilmore, played a total of 20 snaps, with Gilmore sitting out all together and Darby playing sparingly. Stunningly, even in that week 17 matchup against a banged up Bills secondary, Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, failed to throw for 200 yards, reaching only 181 on the day – a poignant follow up to his 193 yard performance the first time the two teams squared off in 2015. Fitzpatrick was shaky to say the least this past week as well, only throwing for 189 yards against the Bengals. It’s possible he’s still shaking off some rust after an offseason that he spent away from the team as a result of contract talks, but this likely isn’t the matchup that he reverts back to the form that saw him put up numerous quality fantasy efforts in 2015. Fitzpatrick is not an ideal target this week. Similarly, I am not overly eager to target either Decker or Marshall this Thursday. Fitzpatrick’s poor form, even going back to the preseason, in conjunction with the Bills’ quality of cornerback, and porous run defense, paints a picture of limited upside for the Jets’ outside receivers.
Quincy Enunwa saw a staggeringly high snap count in week one, playing 66 of the team’s offensive plays – in comparison to the 68 and 70 that Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker played, respectively. Enunwa has flashed talent going back to his days at Nebraska, as well as during the preseason, but it was still surprising to see the team suddenly commit so fully to a player that has a well-known history of drops at this point. That being said, Enunwa did not disappoint in his first real opportunity to shine, catching seven of eight targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. There is certainly potential that he rolls over the new found chemistry with Ryan Fitzpatrick to week two, but trusting what could just end up being “week one lightning” in cash games seems far too risky here. However, in the scope of all of the receivers in this game, Enunwa is my favorite GPP target, due to his expected lofty snap count and the low bar he needs to reach in order to triple or quadruple his salary in fantasy points.
While you can likely allocate a material amount of blame for the Bills’ abysmal passing performance in week one to Sammy Watkins’ injured foot, 111 yards through the air in an NFL game is very difficult to justify in just about any context. Watkins is officially questionable this week, and it’s entirely possible that he does not see the field. Even if he does, Watkins should expect to see a lot of the (less than dominant but still very good) Darrelle Revis. If Watkins does sit, that will leave the Bills’ top three receivers as Greg Salas, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin. Simply put, in that scenario, unless Tyrod Taylor picks up chunk yardage via the ground, he’s not going to deliver anything close to the value that fantasy owners would be looking for. Outside of a potential dart throw at the duo of Taylor and Watkins – assuming Watkins is healthy – I am staying away from the Bills’ passing game all together.
SUMMARY
This game has the makings of a low scoring, defensive battle. Between injuries, ineffectiveness, and quality defenders matching up what would otherwise be intriguing offensive players, there aren’t many interesting targets here. Matt Forte has the look of the safest play while Quincy Enunwa has the potential to realistically deliver a performance worthy of a well-constructed tournament lineup.