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Thursday Night Football should be viewed as an island unto itself in the scope of the DFS NFL scene. With the Thursday Night game being nationally televised, representing the beginning of each week’s action, and being separated from the slate’s other games by multiple days, ownership of these players tends to be greater than it would be otherwise. As a result, the rostering decisions you make with respect to the Thursday Night game are far more binary than normal.
Each week, we’ll be previewing this game with the intention of finding cash game and GPP plays. However, because of the higher ownership that comes with Thursday Night players, there are generally fewer contrarian options to target from this game, relative to the other games contained in a weekly slate. It follows that since top options from the Thursday Night game are going to have a greater rate of ownership than similarly valued pieces from other games, we will often recommend such players as cash game plays, as a means of preventing an early deficit across the majority of your cash games.
Concerning GPPs, you will notice that we tend to highlight few players from the Thursday Night game as ideal tournament options. Our Steve Buzzard wrote a great article on the importance and impact of selecting tournament plays that have are likely to have lower ownership. Applying that logic in practice, the decision to fade the popular players from Thursday night games, that we know are likely to be more heavily owned than they should be, can enhance your standing relative to the field far more than if this game was being played in a different timeslot.
GAME SCRIPT
We understand – it’s the first game of the season, and you want action on it. But considering the Over/Under of 41.5 points set by Vegas, it’s probably best to find other ways to get your fix rather than lock in material DFS ownership in this game. Expect the Broncos offense to play at a slow tempo as they look to enforce a conservative gameplan in an effort to ease in first year starter Trevor Siemian. Carolina, on the other hand, will certainly be looking to feature Cam Newton, but we’re not expecting the Panthers’ offense to find an overwhelming amount of success.
The implied score is Carolina winning 22.5-19, and we see both teams’ totals likely falling within a few points of those point totals. A result in Denver’s favor would likely occur due to a dominant defensive effort combined with a stellar running game, while we expect that Carolina scoring an opening win would be just as attributable to Cam Newton as it would be a stalwart effort from the Panthers defense. Even though I was a firm believer in Carolina in last year Super Bowl, and was proven very wrong, I do once again think the Panthers can sneak by in this significantly less meaningful rematch, by a score of 20-17.
RUNNING GAME
This game features two of seven best run defenses from 2015, with the Broncos allowing the fewest yards per carry (3.28) by a wide margin (of 0.17 yards per carry, with the Buccaneers finishing second.) The sledding figures to be particularly tough for Jonathan Stewart who would have to reach the end zone at least once to have any shot of reaching value, and realistically doesn’t have the upside we’d look for in a tournament play. In the opposing backfield, C.J. Anderson figures to be leaned on heavily as the clear cut number one back for the Broncos. Last year’s Super Bowl (102 total yards, 1 touchdown) serves as a barometer for what kind of day Anderson could be in for on Thursday, but banking on 25+ touches as a means to barely achieving an acceptable DFS performance isn’t what we’re looking for in a cash game play. There are paths to less resistance available at running back this weekend.
PASSING GAME
Cam Newton is undeniably an elite cash game play most weeks, but with many other marquee quarterbacks having much softer matchups than Denver’s defense, there’s little reason to lock in shares of the Panthers quarterback. Despite the difficult matchup, you’re not getting much of a pricing discount, as he’s still costing in the realm of what you’d expect to pay for him against weaker competition. The copious amount of value plays in week one make him an easy pass.
Kelvin Benjamin is an interesting case study this week. News broke on Monday that Benjamin will be limited to around 35 snaps against the Broncos. The obvious conclusion that we can reach is that factoring in this piece of information in conjunction with the tall task of taking on a tough Denver secondary, Benjamin is not a recommended cash game play this week. However, with news of Benjamin’s snap count having more than 3 days to disperse, we’re expecting that a large share of players will write him off all together, giving way for the possibility that his ownership rate may be far lower in GPPs than a player of his caliber would normally come in at (on a Thursday night). While 35 snaps would be only slightly more than half of the 67 snaps per game that Carolina averaged on offense in 2015, a fair expectation would be that the Panthers look to maximize Benjamin’s utility on those snaps, featuring him on passing downs and in the red zone. For a team that only averaged 31 pass attempts a game last year, it shouldn’t be overly difficult to accomplish this, while not pushing Benjamin past his snap limit. Add it all up, and getting a piece of him in GPPs makes sense.
A cursory glance at Tight End reveals that the position is flush with value this week, while a deeper dive only reinforces this sentiment. As Cam Newton’s favorite target, Greg Olsen should push for 10 targets, but a modest output should be expected, in line with the 7-10 fantasy points that our projections team forecasts for him. Facing a struggle to hit 10 fantasy points, a number that the Broncos only allowed 4 of 16 weeks to opposing tight ends last season, Olsen can be faded.
Seeking a value play at quarterback is often a desired route when building lineups. Trevor Siemian, however, does not inspire confidence as a player that can offer the upside necessary to land you in the upper echelon of tournaments. Siemian won the Broncos starting job because he showed the ability to get the ball out quickly, minimize mistakes, and manage a gameplan in line with the coaching staff’s expectations. In other words, choosing Siemian was an effort in risk mitigation. Even if Siemian does fall into multiple short touchdowns, he isn’t going to contribute the yardage through the air or on the ground to set you apart from the pack.
Because we expect Siemian to be mostly handcuffed by the team’s gameplan, we’re largely bearish on Denver receivers in this week one matchup. Despite a solid preseason from Demaryius Thomas and lockdown cornerback Josh Norman no longer occupying a spot in the Panthers’ secondary, we’re not recommending paying his hefty price tag in cash games. Historically however, we’ve seen Thomas blow up for big games largely buoyed by a gameplan filled with screen passes. With the Broncos likely to be focus their passing attack around the line of scrimmage in an effort to ease in Siemian, pushing double digit catches is not out of the question. For this reason, we feel that there’s a real payoff potential, and Thomas is worth allocating a percentage of your GPP shares to. Emmanuel Sanders has generally run more intermediate and deep routes than Thomas, making him an easy fade in an offense that will almost certainly be vertically challenged.
summary
This is not a game that you want to tie your cash game chess pieces to. Likely to be a low scoring affair, yet at the same time not devoid of star power, this game should mark a great opportunity to gain on competition by simply sitting on the sidelines. Steer clear of the quarterbacks, pray for touchdowns if you roster running backs, and tie a few tournament shares to receivers. Week one is finally here, good luck!