Projection Spectrum: Odell Beckham Jr.

Deep dive into the range of outcomes for Odell Beckham Jr. in Cleveland.

The goal of this series is to provide fantasy owners with a sense of what a player’s reasonable floor and ceiling are. Knowing this information can be key when making roster construction decisions.

There are three primary components in this analysis: Volume quantity, volume quality, and player talent. These three components are the lifeblood of a strong projection model.

Let’s jump into the first player – Odell Beckham

Beckham has seen an elite share of targets on a per game basis during his five-year career (between 26% and 28%). He has enjoyed 90 plus catch seasons in three of four years he played at least 12 games. Amazingly he has scored ten or more touchdowns in three of those four years.

Now he finds himself in a new offense with a new quarterback in Cleveland. How will that impact Beckham?

Read on.

Volume Quantity

Head coach Freddie Kitchens and offensive coordinator Todd Monken favor a high-volume offense, and both have shown a propensity to favor the pass. Their teams over the past three years have all outpaced the league average in both areas (1015 and 56%).

Kitchens and Monken Three Year Volumes and Percentages

Coach
Year
Team
Role
Plays
Pass%
Tied Pass%
Attempts
Pass%
Kitchens
2016
ARI
QBs
1086
63
57
1043
62
Kitchens
2017
ARI
RBs
1060
61
61
1010
59
Kitchens
2018
CLE
HC/OC
1023
60
61
983
58
Monken
2016
TB
OC
1066
58
51
976
59
Monken
2017
TB
OC
1035
62
53
997
61
Monken
2018
TB
OC
1055
63
56
1013
62

The percentage of passes when tied provides a hint on how these coaches want to play when the game script isn’t factoring in as heavily. Attempts include passes and rushes but exclude sacks.

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