Dynasty Trade Value Chart: November

Quantifying long-term player values in dynasty leagues

It is November, which means we need to be making final decisions about whether to make a run at the championship or to sell off some older players for draft picks. Nobody is giving away those 2020 picks but they aren’t going to get any cheaper between now and the spring, so get them while you can.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Between monthly updates, you can check out our staff dynasty rankings. You can also always ask me questions on twitter or email to see how much player’s values have changed since this update or even just to bounce around trade ideas.

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Quarterback

Rank
Player
2019 Value
Future Value
Total Value
Superflex
1
6
24
30
70
2
5
21
26
60
3
4
14
18
50
4
5
9
14
40
5
3
7
10
36
6
2
6
8
30
7
3
4
7
25
8
2
4
6
24
9
3
3
6
18
10
2
3
5
23
11
2
3
5
23
12
2
3
5
20
13
2
3
5
18
14
1
3
4
20
15
1
3
4
18
16
1
3
4
18
17
1
3
4
18
18
0
4
4
16
19
2
2
4
10
20
0
3
3
16
21
0
3
3
15
22
1
2
3
15
23
1
2
3
10
24
1
1
2
12
25
0
2
2
10
26
0
2
2
8
27
1
1
2
7
28
0
1
1
8
29
0
1
1
8
30
0
1
1
8
31
0
1
1
6
32
0
1
1
6
33
0
1
1
6
34
0
0
0
6
35
0
0
0
5
36
0
0
0
5
37
0
0
0
4
38
0
0
0
4
39
0
0
0
4
40
0
0
0
3

Quick Thoughts

-Young quarterbacks in Supeflex leagues are such boom or bust investments. Lamar Jackson and Mitch Trubisky had similar startup ADPs this summer. So too did Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield.

-We are seeing some amazing quarterback performances this season. Russell Wilson’s 22-1 touchdown to interception ratio is pretty spectacular.

-Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr saw their dynasty stock fall precipitously last year. Both have bounced back strongly, especially Stafford. His 8.59 yards per attempt without much of a running game to keep defenses honest is an eye-opening number.

-We should get an extended look at rookie quarterback Ryan Finley this season. Drew Lock might get his shot soon too. Small window for these guys to convince ownership not to look for an upgrade at the position in April.

Four Separate from the pack

During the offseason, it felt like quarterback was a very deep position and there wasn’t a ton of separation between the top (not including Mahomes) and the guys ranked 10-15. That doesn’t feel like the case anymore. Injuries and mediocre play from most of the older quarterbacks has thinned the herd. The serious struggles of Mitch Trubisky, Sam Darnold, and Baker Mayfield has thinned things further.

More than the struggles of others, it has been the tremendous play of the top quarterbacks that has created the separation. At the midway point of the season, the stats for our top four quarterbacks are absurd. Patrick Mahomes II is averaging over 9.0 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns and 1 interception. Russell Wilson has 25 total touchdowns and 1 interception. Deshaun Watson has 23 total touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Lamar Jackson has 17 total touchdowns and 5 interceptions (and is on pace for over 1,200 rushing yards). These four provide enough of a weekly advantage that they have significant dynasty trade value even in single quarterback leagues. Good luck trying to trade for one of them in Superflex.

Behind the top four, a couple of guys are knocking on the door of that elite tier. Dak Prescott has been very productive despite turning it over a bit too much. He is in a great situation in Dallas but there is also some real uncertainty about the future with both Prescott and Amari Cooper set to hit free agency. Prescott’s contract (or the franchise tag) could cause him to lose his top receiver. Kyler Murray also has a ways to go to join the top group but there is reason to believe he could make that leap in the next year. He has thrown the 5th most passes in the NFL and is 3rd amongst all quarterbacks in rushing attempts as well. If Arizona adds some pieces around him and he becomes more efficient in his second season, the volume is already where it needs to be for him to emerge as a fantasy star.

Running Back

Rank
Player
2019 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
14
61
75
2
9
59
68
3
10
44
54
4
10
40
50
5
10
35
45
6
8
34
42
7
6
29
35
8
7
21
28
9
3
19
22
10
4
18
22
11
4
16
20
12
5
15
20
13
5
15
20
14
6
13
19
15
2
17
19
16
4
14
18
17
0
17
17
18
4
13
17
19
4
12
16
20
5
10
15
21
5
10
15
22
3
11
14
23
4
10
14
24
3
9
12
25
3
9
12
26
5
6
11
27
2
9
11
28
0
10
10
29
2
8
10
30
2
8
10
31
2
6
8
32
2
6
8
33
2
6
8
34
2
6
8
35
2
6
8
36
1
7
8
37
1
6
7
38
0
7
7
39
0
7
7
40
2
5
7
41
3
4
7
42
1
5
6
43
2
4
6
44
1
5
6
45
2
4
6
46
2
4
6
47
2
4
6
48
2
3
5
49
0
5
5
50
0
5
5
51
0
4
4
52
0
4
4
53
1
3
4
54
1
2
3
55
1
2
3
56
0
2
2
57
0
2
2
58
0
2
2
59
0
2
2
60
1
1
2
61
1
1
2
62
0
2
2
63
0
2
2
64
0
2
2
65
0
2
2
66
0
2
2
67
0
2
2
68
0
2
2
69
0
2
2
70
J.D McKissic
1
1
2

Quick Thoughts

-The trade value of veterans like Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, Devonta Freeman, Melvin Gordon III, and Todd Gurley has fallen off a cliff. We know this happens as running backs hit the tail end of their prime, but it still always come as a shock to some extent.

-David Montgomery and Miles Sanders have had up and down rookie seasons. Both are still solid bets to see a spike in value this offseason. We talk ourselves into taking the risk on young upside players, which isn’t actually a bad thing when the alternative is taking the age-related risk on older, proven backs.

-We could be talking about Devin Singletary in the same tier as Montgomery and Sanders soon. Feels like a breakout might be coming.

-Recent weeks have been a reminder that it is smart to stock the bottom of our rosters with as many decent running backs (including backups) as possible. Big games from Latavius Murray, Chase Edmonds, Jaylen Samuels, Carlos Hyde, etc. are proving their value.

The 2017 class

The story of the year at the running back position has been just how deep and talented the 2017 class now looks. In my most recent dynasty rankings update, I was astounded at how many members of the 2017 class ranked highly at the position. Here are the top backs from that class listed in order of their dynasty running back ranking:

That is 9 of the top 16 all from the same class…

We also have Marlon Mack, Tarik Cohen, Kareem Hunt, Jamaal Williams, and Matt Breida from that class who are also fantasy relevant.

For dynasty owners, this is more than just interesting trivia. All of these backs are going to be eligible for contract extensions in a few months, which leads to some questions:

  1. How many of these backs are going to holdout for new deals?
  2. How many are going to hit free agency in a year or two and land on a new roster?
  3. Of those hitting free agency, how many are going to be attractive enough targets that another team is going to want to make serious investments in them?
  4. With a lot of cheap, young, talented college backs set to hit the NFL in the next couple years, how does that impact the NFL roles and dynasty values of these backs?

If you are looking at your roster from a big picture, long-term perspective, these are some of the questions you should be asking yourself. Some of the above backs are going to have real staying power over the medium or long-term. Others from the list are likely to see their value take a major hit in the next year or two.

“Buy low, sell high” is easier said than done and requires taking some risk and making some tough choices. I suspect many of these 2017 backs are at or near the peak of their values. Hopefully, this at least provides some food for thought.

Wide Receiver

Rank
Player
2019 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
8
36
44
2
7
33
40
3
8
32
40
4
7
33
40
5
6
33
39
6
6
32
38
7
7
31
38
8
6
31
37
9
4
32
36
10
6
29
35
11
4
26
30
12
5
25
30
13
5
22
27
14
3
24
27
15
3
21
24
16
1
23
24
17
6
16
22
18
4
18
22
19
4
14
18
20
4
12
16
21
4
12
16
22
2
14
16
23
3
13
16
24
DJ Chark
2
14
16
25
3
13
16
26
4
11
15
27
3
12
15
28
4
10
14
29
3
11
14
30
2
12
14
31
4
9
13
32
4
9
13
33
1
11
12
34
2
10
12
35
1
11
12
36
1
11
12
37
2
10
12
38
2
9
11
39
3
7
10
40
1
9
10
41
0
10
10
42
3
6
9
43
1
8
9
44
1
8
9
45
1
8
9
46
1
7
8
47
1
7
8
48
4
4
8
49
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
0
7
7
50
2
5
7
51
3
4
7
52
1
6
7
53
3
4
7
54
2
5
7
55
2
5
7
56
1
6
7
57
2
4
6
58
3
3
6
59
1
5
6
60
0
6
6
61
0
6
6
62
Zack Pascal
2
4
6
63
4
1
5
64
1
4
5
65
2
3
5
66
2
2
4
67
1
3
4
68
Desean Jackson
0
4
4
69
1
3
4
70
0
4
4
71
0
4
4
72
2
1
3
73
1
2
3
74
0
3
3
75
Jakobi Myers
0
3
3
76
0
3
3
77
0
3
3
78
0
2
2
79
0
2
2
80
0
2
2

Quick Notes

-We discussed last week how the idea of an elite dynasty tier at the position was becoming a tougher concept to rationalize. The last month has only strengthened that view. DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Davante Adams, and Odell Beckham Jr were first-round picks in startups last offseason. None of them are putting up top-12 numbers at the position. In fact, Beckham and Smith-Schuster are fantasy WR3s at the midway point of the season.

-The No.1 and No. 2 fantasy wide receivers are on the same team (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) and it is impossible to predict which one is going to have a big game that given week. It is also hard to figure out how sustainable this type of production is for two guys sharing targets.

-Two months ago, I wrote about how slot wide receivers might be systematically undervalued in dynasty leagues. At the midway point of the season, three of the top five fantasy wide receivers operate largely from the slot (Godwin, Tyler Lockett, and Cooper Kupp). Michael Thomas is also top five and does a lot of his damage from the slot.

-Keep in mind the upside slot receivers can have in today’s NFL next spring in rookie drafts. Plus, don’t sleep on guys like Hunter Renfrow, who has been emerging in Oakland, or Mohamed Sanu, who could blow up after his move to New England.

The Rookie Class

There was a lot of discussion on Twitter this offseason about the rookie wide receiver class. Some smart analysts argued it was a horribly overrated group and a very below average class. Other smart analysts argued it was an above-average class.

It is still very early to be making any grand pronouncements but the early results point to the class being average at the very least. We have two rookies already putting up Top-20 numbers at the position: DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin. We have seen some serious flashes and had some big fantasy games from Preston Williams, Marquise Brown, A.J. Brown, Diontae Johnson, and Mecole Hardman. Parris Campbell and Andy Isabella showed some things last week, also. Expect the dynasty value of most of these rookie receivers to rise in the coming months.

Tight End

Rank
Player
2019 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
5
20
25
2
6
16
22
3
5
13
18
4
5
13
18
5
5
11
16
6
5
11
16
7
2
10
12
8
3
9
12
9
2
10
12
10
4
8
12
11
1
7
8
12
1
6
7
13
1
5
6
14
1
5
6
15
1
4
5
16
1
4
5
17
0
5
5
18
1
3
4
19
1
3
4
20
0
4
4
21
1
3
4
22
0
4
4
23
1
2
3
24
1
2
3
25
1
2
3
26
1
1
2
27
0
2
2
28
0
2
2
29
0
2
2
30
1
1
2
31
0
2
2
32
1
1
2
33
1
1
2
34
1
0
1

Quick Thoughts

-The four year age difference between George Kittle and Travis Kelce makes it hard to justify having Kelce on top anymore.

-Hunter Henry missed four games and still ranks as the TE9. He has been as consistently productive as any tight end this season. It is coming in under the radar due to the missed games but Henry is breaking out and looks like he could be a top player at the position for the next decade.

-Darren Fells has come out of nowhere to be the TE8 at the midway point of the season. You can stream tight ends and be just fine if you are vigilant and quick to pounce in waivers. Fells is proof.

Future rookie picks

Draft Pick
Value
Superflex
Early 1st
22
24
Mid 1st
16
18
Late 1st
12
14
2nd
8
9
3rd
4
5

Not too much has changed in the last month with regard to the value of 2020 picks. Early-round rookie picks are still on track to be more valuable than they would be for a normal class. Here are a few quick notes on the class that may prove helpful when deciding on draft pick trades:

  1. The top quarterback prospects like Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert are playing up to expectations and Joe Burrow has joined them as a likely top-10 selection.
  2. The top running backs are all playing really well. Travis Etienne and Jonathan Taylor are never likely to be top pass-catching threats but they’ve made big strides to where they don’t look like they will be liabilities in that area, which should cement them as top-40 overall selections.
  3. J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers were great as freshmen and then struggled through sophomore slumps. Both have been fantastic as juniors and once again look like 2nd-round backs who could be fantasy stars in the right landing spot.
  4. Chuba Hubbard emerged late last year as a player to watch and has exceeded expectations in a breakout season and should also be in the early-round mix if he leaves early.
  5. The wide receiver class has a great mix of top-end talent (like Jerry Jeudy) and a ton of depth. NFL teams are thirsty for playmaking speedsters and this class is going to go a long way towards quenching that thirst. We should see 10+ wide receivers go off the board in the top 75.

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