Dynasty Trade Value Chart: March - Footballguys

Quantifying Long-Term Player Value in Dynasty Leagues

With the NFL Scouting Combine complete, rookie values are starting to come into focus. In the March edition of the Dynasty Trade Value Chart, we will go into some depth on the conclusions we can draw from the combine and the trade value of each of the rookie picks. With many leagues moving to the Superflex format, the Dynasty Trade Value Chart for the quarterback position has been updated this month to include a new column for Superflex value. The Superflex format raises the dynasty trade value of some quarterbacks more than others and we will take a look at why that is the case and highlight some quarterbacks who see the biggest value boosts.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering.

Rookie Pick Value

The combine results confirmed the overall strengths and weaknesses of this rookie dynasty class. In terms of weaknesses, it is not a deep class at quarterback or running back and lacks a slam-dunk superstar at wide receiver. The class does have some real strengths, however. This is a deep group of prospects at both wide receiver and tight end, with at least a half dozen pass catchers likely to go in the first round and a big group who should go in the second and third round. The top wide receivers almost all tested really well and bolstered their dynasty stock. Plus, while quarterback and running back aren’t deep, at the top of the position groups, Kyler Murray and Josh Jacobs both have massive fantasy upside.

Pick Player, Position, and School Trade Value
1.01 Josh Jacobs, RB Alabama 22
1.02 D.K. Metcalf, WR Mississippi 20
1.03 A.J. Brown, WR Mississippi 18
1.04 Hakeem Butler, WR Iowa State 17
1.05 N'Keal Harry, WR Arizona State 16
1.06 Darrell Henderson, RB Memphis 14
1.07 David Montgomery, RB Iowa State 13
1.08 TJ Hockenson, TE Iowa 12
1.09 Noah Fant, TE Iowa 11
1.1 Kelvin Harmon, WR North Carolina State 10
1.11 Marquise Brown, WR Oklahoma 8
1.12 Parris Campbell, WR Ohio State 7
2.01 Deebo Samuel, WR South Carolina 7
2.02 Emanuel Hall, WR Missouri 6
2.03 Damien Harris, RB Alabama 6
2.04 Rodney Anderson, RB Oklahoma 6
2.05 Miles Sanders, RB Penn State 6
2.06 Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma 6
2.07 Trayveon Williams, RB Texas A&M 5
2.08 Devin Singletary, RB Florida Atlantic 5
2.09 JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR Stanford 5
2.1 Riley Ridley, WR Georgia 5
2.11 Irv Smith Jr., TE Alabama 5
2.12 Miles Boykin, WR Notre Dame 5

Let’s quickly look at what the tiers might look like after the NFL Draft:

Top running back tier

Unfortunately, Josh Jacobs didn’t do anything at the combine. He’s not a guy with huge speed concerns (probably 4.55 or so), so it’s not a big red flag that a minor injury kept him out. However, his lack of participation slows down the hype train a bit and should keep his startup draft ADP depressed for the time being. Jacobs’ landing spot will be huge but if he goes in the first round as expected, there might be a lot of debate this spring and summer whether Jacobs or one of the top wide receivers deserves to go 1.01.

Top wide receiver tier

Saturday at the NFL Combine was a good day for most of the top wide receiver prospects. While thing still seem much more up in the air than normal in terms of how these guys all stack up, there seems to be at least some consensus in the dynasty community as to who the top four fantasy wide receiver prospects are in some order: D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Hakeem Butler, and N’Keal Harry.

Draft twitter freaked out over D.K. Metcalf’s poor times in the short shuttle and 3-cone almost as much as it did over his blazing 4.33 40-time. The college injury history, mediocre production, and unique physical traits (both good and bad) all combine to make Metcalf a polarizing prospect with a huge ceiling but higher-than-normal risk of busting. Despite the risk factors, Metcalf is the favorite to be the first receiver off of the board in April.

Metcalf’s teammate A.J. Brown was quietly one of the bigger winners at the combine. His 4.49 time at 226 pounds was a pleasant surprise and should solidify him as a top-50 NFL Draft pick. He also has a PPR-friendly game and is a potential volume receiver in the right offense.

N’Keal Harry was also a pleasant surprise with a 4.53 forty time. He also solidified his spot as a top-50 prospect and has upside as a possession receiver and red zone weapon.

Hakeem Butler and his 4.48 time at 6’5, 227 pounds would have been a much bigger story if Metcalf’s 4.33 didn’t steal all of the headlines. Unlike Metcalf, Butler didn’t perform all the drills and thus we don’t have short shuttle or 3-cone times. Those will be key indicators if he performs at his pro day. Butler is a physical freak in his own right and his college production and more well-rounded game give him almost as much upside as Metcalf with perhaps a bit less risk.

Running Back Second-Tier in Good Spots

The combine was a mixed bag for the top running backs at the combine. There were not a lot of standout performances and many of the top testing results came from lower-ranked prospects. It is a group with just a handful of guys likely to go in the second or third round. The second tier after the combine probably includes Darrell Henderson, David Montgomery, Damien Harris, Miles Sanders, Trayveon Williams, Justice Hill , and Rodney Anderson.

Odds say that only two or three of the running backs in this tier are likely to land on teams with a major opportunity at the position given their mid-round draft stock. Teams like the Panthers, Rams, Cowboys, Saints, and Jaguars are all in the market for backups and could use 3rd or 4th round picks on the position. Let’s assume we have two of these top running backs land in spots with a clear path to being the top back while the rest fall into murkier committee situations (or clear backups). If so, the guys in attractive spots should be hot dynasty commodities while most of the rest of the group would slide into the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

Darrell Henderson (4.49) was able to put to bed any concerns about his long speed and looks like a strong Day 2 prospect. He should be a mid-1st round rookie draft target if he lands in a good spot.

David Montgomery (4.63) tested as a below-average athlete, which was expected. It doesn’t hurt his dynasty stock too much but it certainly didn’t help. The mediocre testing also increases the chances of him sliding into the 3rd round of the NFL draft, where he could be drafted as a top backup behind an established starter.

Wide Receiver Second Tier

The biggest strength of this rookie class is how deep and talented the wide receiver class is and we saw that Saturday at the NFL Combine. There are so many wide receivers who should go in the top-75 overall, which is going to make late-1st and 2nd-round rookie picks valuable.

Even when adjusted for size, Kelvin Harmon tested as a below-average athlete overall. He’s still an intriguing dynasty prospect but might belong at the top of the second tier instead of ranked alongside the top guys.

Marquise Brown couldn’t participate due to injury but his weigh-in (5’0, 166) was disappointing. He is still appearing in the first round of media mocks, which is mildly surprising.

Miles Boykin, Parris Campbell, and Emanuel Hall were huge winners in the testing, earning the top three SPARQ scores at the position. These were productive college players at big programs and can’t be written off as just “workout warriors.”

Deebo Samuel, Andy Isabella, and Riley Ridley each put in solid performances as well.

The Top Tight Ends

Noah Fant dominated the combine with one of the best overall performances we’ve seen in the last decade. Running 4.50 at 249 pounds drew all of the attention but he also was outstanding in the change of direction drills and measures of explosiveness. His 6.81 3-cone and 39.5” vertical jump were easily the best at the position. Fant is going to be a first rounder in the NFL draft and should also go in the first round of rookie drafts.

T.J. Hockenson also put in a strong overall showing at the combine. While none of his numbers leap off of the page, he had the 3rd-highest SPARQ score at the position. Combined with his excellent college performance, he too looks like a first-round prospect for both the NFL and dynasty leagues.

The Top Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray didn’t participate in on-field testing but still was a big winner after weighing in at 207 pounds. Plus, the big news coming out of the combine is Murray looks to be the heavy favorite to go #1 overall. His elite athleticism makes him a strong fantasy prospect as well. He could emerge as the 1.01 in Superflex leagues and has enough upside to justify a second-round selection in one-quarterback leagues.

Dwayne Haskins and Drew Lock don’t have much fantasy appeal in single quarterback leagues but should be first rounders in Superflex.

Quarterback

Pos Rank Pos Player Value Superflex
1 QB Patrick Mahomes II II 25 55
2 QB Deshaun Watson 10 30
3 QB Andrew Luck 10 30
4 QB Baker Mayfield 8 28
5 QB Russell Wilson 8 25
6 QB Aaron Rodgers 7 20
7 QB Lamar Jackson 5 16
8 QB Carson Wentz 5 18
9 QB Cam Newton 5 16
10 QB Jared Goff 5 18
11 QB Mitchell Trubisky 4 15
12 QB Jimmy Garoppolo 4 15
13 QB Kirk Cousins 4 13
14 QB Matt Ryan 4 12
15 QB Dak Prescott 4 12
16 QB Sam Darnold 4 12
17 QB Jameis Winston 4 12
18 QB Josh Allen 3 12
19 QB Drew Brees 3 9
20 QB Philip Rivers 3 9
21 QB Ben Roethlisberger 3 9
22 QB Tom Brady 3 8
23 QB Andy Dalton 2 8
24 QB Marcus Mariota 2 7
25 QB Matthew Stafford 2 7
26 QB Derek Carr 2 7
27 QB Nick Foles 2 7
28 QB Josh Rosen 1 5
29 QB Joe Flacco 1 4
30 QB Ryan Tannehill 1 3

Superflex Value

Most new dynasty leagues are the Superflex format, which allows you to start a second quarterback in a special flex spot. Moving forward, the dynasty trade value chart will always include an extra column for the quarterback with Superflex trade values.

Since this is a new feature, let’s look at an analogy to explain why we don’t just use a simple multiplier to move from single quarterback league dynasty values to super flex values. If you are offered the choice of either (A) $400 per year for three years or (B) $100 per year for eight years, it is an easy choice to take option A. Now, imagine if $300 is added to both offers. Now your choice is (A) $700 per year for three years or (B) $400 per year for eight years. It is now an easy choice to take option B.

In the exact same way, longer-term starters at the quarterback position get a bigger relative boost than older quarterbacks do because they benefit more from the lowered fantasy bar each year going forward.

News and Notes

The news that the Cardinals are willing to sell low after one year with Josh Rosen means his value takes a real hit. Even if he lands as a starter elsewhere (Washington?), Rosen has a lot to prove and may face an uphill battle to lock down a long-term role as a starter.

Nick Foles looks like he is going to land a relatively lucrative deal to be a starter, possibly in Jacksonville. He has solid Superflex league value but if Jacksonville is the landing spot, it is hard to get excited about his chances of putting up QB1 numbers in the single quarterback format.

Running Back

Pos Rank Pos Player Value
1 RB Saquon Barkley 62
2 RB Christian McCaffrey 55
3 RB Ezekiel Elliott 55
4 RB Alvin Kamara 50
5 RB Todd Gurley 46
6 RB Joe Mixon 32
7 RB Melvin Gordon III 32
8 RB Nick Chubb 30
9 RB David Johnson 26
10 RB Dalvin Cook 26
11 RB Le'Veon Bell 25
12 RB James Conner 24
13 RB Derrius Guice 21
14 RB Kerryon Johnson 20
15 RB Leonard Fournette 20
16 RB Sony Michel 20
17 RB Aaron Jones 16
18 RB Kareem Hunt 15
19 RB Marlon Mack 14
20 RB Damien Williams 14
21 RB Phillip Lindsay 13
22 RB Derrick Henry 12
23 RB Devonta Freeman 11
24 RB Tarik Cohen 10
25 RB Chris Carson 10
26 RB Rashaad Penny 9
27 RB Tevin Coleman 8
28 RB Jerick McKinnon 8
29 RB James White 7
30 RB Jordan Howard 7
31 RB Royce Freeman 6
32 RB Mark Ingram II 6
33 RB Kenyan Drake 6
34 RB Matt Breida 6
35 RB Austin Ekeler 4
36 RB Nyheim Hines 4
37 RB Ronald Jones 4
38 RB Lamar Miller 4
39 RB Ito Smith 4
40 RB Jay Ajayi 3
41 RB Duke Johnson Jr 3
42 RB Peyton Barber 3
43 RB LeSean McCoy 3
44 RB D'Onta Foreman 3
45 RB Chase Edmonds 3
46 RB T.J. Yeldon 3
47 RB Gus Edwards 2
48 RB Jaylen Samuels 2
49 RB Chris Thompson 2
50 RB Josh Adams 2
51 RB Spencer Ware 2
52 RB Carlos Hyde 2
53 RB Kalen Ballage 2
54 RB Isaiah Crowell 2
55 RB Rex Burkhead 2
56 RB Elijah McGuire 2
57 RB Kenneth Dixon 2
58 RB C.J. Anderson 2
59 RB Dion Lewis 2
60 RB Theo Riddick 2
61 RB Alex Collins 2
62 RB Giovani Bernard 2
63 RB Latavius Murray 2
64 RB Jordan Wilkins 2
65 RB Malcolm Brown 2
66 RB Jamaal Williams 2
67 RB Bilal Powell 2
68 RB Corey Clement 1
69 RB Adrian Peterson 1
70 RB Marshawn Lynch 1
71 RB Doug Martin 1
72 RB Mike Davis 1
73 RB Corey Grant 1
74 RB John Kelly 1
75 RB Jalen Richard 1

News and Notes

Le’Veon Bell is by far the biggest name to watch in free agency. Rumors have the New York Jets as the likeliest landing spot. While the Jets offense isn’t one that will inspire much confidence, this would be a sneaky strong landing spot for Bell. Sam Darnold showed enough flashes to believe he can be a true franchise quarterback and he is badly in need of weapons. Bell would instantly be the top option in the passing attack in addition to being heavily involved as a runner. Bell will not turn 30 years old until 2022 and the year off should help his longevity. He might be undervalued and if his landing spot doesn’t inspire immediate excitement in the dynasty community, Bell could be a strong buy-low candidate.

Tevin Coleman is the only other free agent who has a decent shot at landing a lead back role in free agency. He is a candidate to see his value shoot up in the same way Jerick McKinnon’s did last spring.

Comments from Lions and Packers coaches at the Combine media sessions about sticking with more of a committee approach will not boost the dynasty values of Kerryon Johnson or Aaron Jones. The reality next fall may not match what we are hearing now but it might be best to approach these two backfields with some caution.

Wide Receiver

Pos Rank Pos Player Value
1 WR DeAndre Hopkins 46
2 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster 40
3 WR Michael Thomas 40
4 WR Odell Beckham Jr 40
5 WR Tyreek Hill 38
6 WR Davante Adams 38
7 WR Mike Evans 34
8 WR Keenan Allen 27
9 WR Julio Jones 27
10 WR Stefon Diggs 25
11 WR Amari Cooper 25
12 WR Antonio Brown 24
13 WR Kenny Golladay 23
14 WR Brandin Cooks 22
15 WR T.Y. Hilton 21
16 WR Adam Thielen 21
17 WR A.J. Green 20
18 WR Corey Davis 18
19 WR Robert Woods 18
20 WR D.J. Moore 18
21 WR Jarvis Landry 17
22 WR Allen Robinson 16
23 WR Calvin Ridley 15
24 WR Tyler Boyd 15
25 WR Chris Godwin 15
26 WR Cooper Kupp 14
27 WR Courtland Sutton 13
28 WR Tyler Lockett 13
29 WR Mike Williams 13
30 WR Christian Kirk 11
31 WR Dante Pettis 11
32 WR James Washington 9
33 WR Alshon Jeffery 9
34 WR Will Fuller V 9
35 WR Sammy Watkins 8
36 WR Anthony Miller 7
37 WR Doug Baldwin 6
38 WR Keke Coutee 6
39 WR Marvin Jones Jr 6
40 WR Curtis Samuel 6
41 WR Julian Edelman 6
42 WR Antonio Callaway 5
43 WR Michael Gallup 5
44 WR Robby Anderson 5
45 WR Daesean Hamilton 4
46 WR Deon Cain 4
47 WR Zay Jones 4
48 WR Tre'Quan Smith 4
49 WR Sterling Shepard 4
50 WR Robert Foster 4
51 WR Golden Tate 4
52 WR Albert Wilson 4
53 WR Rashard Higgins 3
54 WR John Ross 3
55 WR Dede Westbrook 3
56 WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling 3
57 WR Adam Humphries 3
58 WR Nelson Agholor 3
59 WR Larry Fitzgerald 3
60 WR Kenny Stills 3
61 WR Emmanuel Sanders 3
62 WR Keith Kirkwood 2
63 WR Geronimo Allison 2
64 WR Donte Moncrief 2
65 WR Equanimeous St. Brown 2
66 WR David Moore 2
67 WR Devin Funchess 2
68 WR Jamison Crowder 2
69 WR Quincy Enunwa 2
70 WR Josh Reynolds 2
71 WR DeVante Parker 2
72 WR Taywan Taylor 2
73 WR D.J. Chark Jr 2
74 WR Josh Doctson 1
75 WR Demaryius Thomas 1
76 WR Chris Conley 1
77 WR Jordy Nelson 1
78 WR Paul Richardson Jr 1
79 WR Keelan Cole 1
80 WR Marquise Goodwin 1
81 WR Ted Ginn Jr Jr. 1
82 WR John Brown 1
83 WR Chris Hogan 1
84 WR Randall Cobb 1
85 WR Desean Jackson 1

News and Notes

A weak crop of free agent wide receivers could make for very little dynasty value movement at the position in March. Most wide receiver-needy teams will most likely to just wait until April to take advantage of the deepest rookie class at the position in five years. While there aren’t any free agent who are likely to be impact fantasy players in new spots, a few could at least see decent value boosts after changing teams.

Tyrell Williams is probably never going to be an impact fantasy option but he has some similarities in situation to Marvin Jones Jr, who saw a solid value boost after escaping from A.J. Green’s shadow in Cincinnati. Williams could be a 1,000-yard receiver in the right offense. He has a shot at landing a contract of $10M+ per season.

Adam Humphries might be the top slot receiver on the market. If he lands in a high-powered passing offense, there is some modest PPR upside. New Orleans would be a best-case scenario.

Aside from free agency, Antonio Brown’s situation is the news to follow in March. It will be interesting to see if any team is willing to give up a first rounder for his services. If so, it would bode well for his chances of rolling right along at 10-12 targets per game even in a new offense.

While Brown burning all of his bridges on the way out of Pittsburgh doesn’t have any direct impact on his fantasy numbers, it still causes a slight drag on his fantasy value. He is 31 years old and is going to lose a step or two soon. Great teammates (like Larry Fitzgerald) are more likely to retain a spot on an NFL roster as they age than are guys who are negative locker room presences. The juice may not be worth the squeeze as far as Brown is concerned in the coming years.

Tight End

Pos Rank Pos Player Value
1 TE Travis Kelce 28
2 TE George Kittle 25
3 TE Zach Ertz 25
4 TE O.J. Howard 12
5 TE David Njoku 10
6 TE Evan Engram 10
7 TE Hunter Henry 9
8 TE Eric Ebron 9
9 TE Austin Hooper 6
10 TE Dallas Goedert 5
11 TE Chris Herndon 5
12 TE Trey Burton 5
13 TE Ian Thomas 4
14 TE Rob Gronkowski 4
15 TE Kyle Rudolph 4
16 TE Mark Andrews 4
17 TE Mike Gesicki 4
18 TE Jack Doyle 3
19 TE Jared Cook 3
20 TE Jordan Reed 3
21 TE Vance McDonald 3
22 TE Greg Olsen 2
23 TE Gerald Everett 2
24 TE Delanie Walker 2
25 TE Tyler Eifert 2
26 TE CJ Uzomah 2
27 TE Hayden Hurst 2
28 TE Jimmy Graham 2
29 TE Jordan Thomas 1
30 TE Will Dissly 1
31 TE Jonnu Smith 1
32 TE Jeff Heuerman 1
33 TE Ricky Seals-Jones 1
34 TE Jesse James 1
35 TE Cameron Brate 1
36 TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins 1
37 TE Adam Shaheen 1
38 TE Jake Butt 1

News and Notes

Jared Cook and Tyler Eifert are the two most interesting free agents. Cook is aging but is still one of the most athletic tight ends in the NFL. Eifert looked to be well on his way to a productive 2019 before an ugly ankle injury ended yet another season prematurely. The injury risk is obvious but don’t forget about Eifert’s upside if he is ever able to put together another mostly healthy season.

March may provide some answers on Rob Gronwkowski’s future. The working assumption for many is that he is leaning toward retirement. He has been traded for late-round rookie picks in more than one of my leagues in recent weeks.