Dynasty Trade Value Chart: January - Footballguys

Long-Term Player Values for Dynasty Leagues

The January version of the dynasty trade value chart will take a closer look at some of the most interesting players and story lines to follow as we enter the offseason. With early dynasty startups (and dispersal drafts) kicking off in the coming months, a new consensus on player values will slowly emerge. However, the process usually takes some time and makes participating in an early startup much more challenging and rewarding than waiting until late in the summer when things are much more settled.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering.

Quarterback

Rank
Player
Value
1
25
2
11
3
10
4
9
5
8
6
8
7
8
8
7
9
7
10
7
11
7
12
7
13
5
14
4
15
4
16
4
17
4
18
4
19
4
20
3
21
3
22
3
23
3
24
2
25
2
26
2
27
2
28
1
29
1
30
1
31
1
32
1

Rookie Fever?

The most interesting dynasty storyline of the offseason will be how much the stock of the rookie quarterbacks will rise. The early returns on the 2018 class were positive. Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen both showed flashes but the real intrigue from a dynasty perspective is the trio of Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. Mayfield set the all-time rookie record for touchdown passes in a season. Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to a 5-1 finish and showed off his elite athleticism that could make him a fantasy star. Last but not least, Josh Allen showed off some ridiculous physical tools and looked even more athletic than expected.

From a fantasy perspective, the finishes were even more impressive. Over the final six weeks of the season, Josh Allen was QB1, Baker Mayfield was QB5, and Lamar Jackson was QB8. Last offseason, it felt like I bumped Patrick Mahomes II up a couple spots each update as the fantasy hype slowly but steadily grew. We could see a similar phenomenon play out this offseason.

Musical Chairs

We will see over the next few months how many 2019 quarterback prospects emerge from the draft process as franchise guys. Probably not very many, which means there should be a more robust market for veteran quarterbacks who go on the market. Guys like Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, and potentially Jameis Winston have a great chance to be sitting in the driver’s seat for starting jobs once the music stops. In super flex leagues, there may be a buy-low window before free agency kicks off.

Running Back

Rank
Player
Value
1
60
2
58
3
56
4
54
5
48
6
36
7
32
8
30
9
28
10
Le'Veon Bell
26
11
24
12
22
13
18
14
18
15
18
16
17
17
17
18
16
19
15
20
14
21
12
22
12
23
10
24
9
25
9
26
9
27
9
28
8
29
8
30
7
31
7
32
7
33
7
34
6
35
6
36
6
37
Ronald Jones
6
38
6
39
6
40
6
41
6
42
5
43
5
44
5
45
5
46
4
47
4
48
4
49
4
50
4
51
4
52
4
53
4
54
4
55
4
56
4
57
3
58
3
59
3
60
3
61
3
62
D'Onta Foreman
3
63
3
64
3
65
3
66
2
67
2
68
1
69
1
70
Jeff Wilson Jr.
1
71
1
72
1
73
1
74
1
75
1

Can’t Go Wrong

You can confidently build your dynasty roster around any of the top five backs— Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara. However, it is still crucial for anyone entering a dynasty startup to figure out how the top group ranks for them. It is extremely close between these guys but the above order is how I see it. Barkley is the youngest of the group and such a special talent, he has to be the 1.01. Gurley has had two incredible seasons playing in Sean McVay’s offense and, after signing a lucrative extension, is locked into this starting job over the medium term. McCaffrey has a strong case for the top two due to being a bit younger than Gurley and his massive pass-game role. However, the health issues of Cam Newton and some general uncertainty about the Panthers offense compared to the dream situation in Los Angeles for Gurley breaks the tie. The one thing keeping Elliott behind the top few guys was his average production as a pass catcher. Then he went out and caught 77 passes in 15 games and is clearly an elite PPR back. Kamara falls to the bottom of this top tier because the Saints seem to like him in more of a committee role. However, his future is incredibly bight as well.

The Kansas City Situation

It will be fascinating to see where Damien Williams and Kareem Hunt go off the board in early 2019 startup drafts. More than any other position, fantasy production at running back is hugely influenced by situation. The Chiefs offense is going to be a major force going forward, racking up yardage and touchdowns. Andy Reed has traditionally given his lead back a relatively healthy workload. By May, we should know who the starting back will be and we will see his value skyrocket no matter who it is.

Buying on Williams as long as his value doesn’t rise too much too fast is a smart calculated risk. His skill set is similar to Hunt’s and Williams looks like a pretty talented guy in his own right. We know the upside in this offense and the role a back like Williams could play but also can’t go too overboard here because the risk is very high as well. I was buying on Rex Burkhead early last offseason and then saw his value plummet when the Patriots took a first-round running back. Alex Collins also saw his value shoot way up last offseason but he never really had a firm grip on the lead role. We could see something similar with Williams.

The dynasty stock of Hunt will be also be interesting to watch. He may never get back into the NFL given the PR fallout for franchises that sign players with domestic violence allegations, especially if the incident was caught on video. However, he is a talented young back and could eventually make a return if he can rehabilitate himself and his image.

Love of the Game?

How much should we discount Leonard Fournette based upon both his problems staying healthy and reportedly lackadaisical approach in general. The Jacksonville front office is clearly frustrated with Fournette. His response will be key. If the 2018 debacle serves as a wakeup call, Fournette has a special skill set and could settle in as a long-term RB1. If Fournette instead responds in an immature manner, the risks of him turning into a bust increase further. It all adds up to make Fournette one of the most extreme boom or bust players options in the first few rounds of dynasty startup drafts.

Sorting through the rookie backs

Nick Chubb is the rookie back it is easiest to feel good about (aside from Barkley). Even without knowing who the next coaching staff will be, we can be confident this Cleveland offense with Baker Mayfield at the helm is going to be dangerous. We can also feel good about Chubb being the lead back for the next few years at least. Whether he is a low-end RB1 or an elite producer will largely hinge upon his pass-catching role. Chubb caught 20 passes as a rookie, whereas the top-5 fantasy backs this season averaged 83 receptions.

Kerryon Johnson looks the next most likely to enjoy a true workhorse role next season. He missed time with injury but if he can stay healthy should emerge in Detroit.

Derrius Guice could be a first-round startup pick at this time next year if he is able to fully recover from the knee injury suffered last season and Washington can find a quarterback capable of keeping teams from stacking the box. Guice has that kind of talent. However, health and the situation in Washington are both real concerns and it makes sense to price both of those risk factors into

The big attraction with Sony Michel in New England was the combination of touchdown opportunities and the potential for big receiving totals. Neither fully materialized. Michel scored just 6 times and, even more concerning, caught just 7 passes. If his role doesn’t expand moving forward, it will be nearly impossible for Michel to be a fantasy RB1.

Jalen Lindsay faded a little bit down the stretch and it was enough to at least give some pause as to just how bright his long-term prospects are. Lindsay was RB13 as a rookie and could produce similar numbers moving forward. It also shouldn’t be a shock if Denver goes with even more of a committee approach and Lindsay is more of a low-end RB2 in 2019.

Rashaad Penny, Royce Freeman, and Ronald Jones all disappointed as rookies. In part because other backs on their teams exceeded expectations and in part due to some deficiencies in their games. Penny needs to shed a few pounds and reports have been negative regarding his work ethic and maturity. Freeman wasn’t as explosive as his competition in the Denver backfield and didn’t show any truly special traits. Jones really struggled catching the ball and with his confidence in general. There is still time for these guys to turn it around but the clock is ticking.

Wide Receiver

Rank
Player
Value
1
50
2
46
3
42
4
40
5
40
6
36
7
34
8
28
9
26
10
26
11
26
12
26
13
22
14
22
15
22
16
21
17
21
18
18
19
18
20
18
21
15
22
15
23
15
24
15
25
15
26
15
27
14
28
14
29
14
30
12
31
12
32
11
33
10
34
9
35
9
36
8
37
8
38
8
39
7
40
7
41
7
42
7
43
7
44
7
45
7
46
7
47
6
48
6
49
6
50
5
51
5
52
5
53
5
54
5
55
4
56
4
57
4
58
4
59
4
60
4
61
4
62
4
63
Daesean Hamilton
4
64
4
65
4
66
3
67
3
68
Desean Jackson
3
69
3
70
3
71
3
72
2
73
2
74
2
75
2
76
Keith Kirkwood
2
77
2
78
1
79
1
80
1
81
1
82
1
83
1
84
1
85
1
86
1

Drama in the Steel City

There is a real chance Antonio Brown could end up on the trading block after a bizarre end to the 2018 season. If he is moved, his dynasty value could take a real hit depending upon landing spot. Brown will turn 31 this offseason and is at the age where his dynasty value would continue to plummet even without the off-field drama.

The possible departure of Brown would be a mixed blessing for JuJu Smith-Schuster. He would see more targets but also face a lot more double teams and matchups against the opponents’ best corners. Regardless, Smith-Schuster’s dynasty stock should continue to climb this offseason if his ascent to WR1 in Pittsburgh comes faster than expected. Don’t be surprised if Smith-Schuster emerges as a popular late-1st round pick in dynasty startups by the summer.

Robert Foster worth targeting?

Over the final six weeks, Robert Foster was WR18 in PPR leagues. He outscored Tyreek Hill and Adam Thielen over that stretch. Foster has always been an enigma, which makes his completely unexpected emergence in Buffalo even tougher to figure out. He was a 5-star recruit and made multiple appearances in my Devy Top 100 articles because his measurables were so impressive and there were always stories of him dominating Alabama’s talented defensive backs when he was on the scout team. However, he Foster almost nothing in college (35-389-3 over his entire career) and was undrafted into the NFL. It is entirely possible Foster’s late-season production ends up being the highlight of his career. On the other hand, we’ve seen undrafted or late round receivers (like Hill and Thielen) who were surprisingly productive when given a chance continue to build and eventually emerge as fantasy stars. It is worth trying to figure out which path is most likely for Foster.

Tight End

Rank
Player
Value
1
28
2
24
3
22
4
12
5
9
6
9
7
8
8
8
9
7
10
6
11
6
12
6
13
5
14
5
15
5
16
4
17
3
18
3
19
3
20
3
21
3
22
3
23
3
24
3
25
2
26
C.J. Uzomah
2
27
2
28
2
29
2
30
2
31
2
32
1
33
1
34
1
35
1
36
1
37
1
38
1
39
1

How high does Kittle Rise?

George Kittle just broke the all-time record for most receiving yards by a tight end and did it as a 25-year old in just his second season. The guess here is Kittle will emerge as the consensus top guy at the position in dynasty startup drafts. While Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz also had spectacular 2018 seasons and boast longer track records, the four year age difference between the two and Kittle is enough to tip the scales in the favor of Kittle.

Upside Down Rookie Class

In terms of potential to make an early fantasy impact, it was a pair of mid-round rookies who emerged from the pack and not the early round tight ends. Chris Herndon’s numbers (39-502-4) are modest in general but not within the context of how difficult the transition to the pros typically is for rookie tight ends. Herndon also showed a nice rapport with Sam Darnold and should be one of the prime beneficiaries if Darnold makes a year two leap like we have seen from a number of other young quarterbacks. Mark Andrews (34-552-3) put up similar numbers and is also tied to a rookie quarterback (Lamar Jackson) moving forward.