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Dynasty Trade Value Chart: February - Footballguys

Long-Term Player Values for Dynasty Leagues

February is when you can tell who the real dynasty diehards are. Early startups are fun and challenging because you have to take calculated risks based on how you envision free agency and the draft playing out. It is also a time where it is possible to get some nice value in trades if you can get ahead of the pack on player value before everything really settles in early in the summer. This article will feature our first deeper dive into the 2019 rookie class and the trade value associated with each pick.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering.

Timing Note: New Dynasty Trade Value Chart articles will appear on the first Tuesday of every month.

Rookie Pick Value

The chart below comes with a few caveats worth keeping in mind:

  1. The trade values are attached to the picks themselves and not the players named. The only reason player names are listed is to add some context of the players potentially available with these selections.
  2. It is way too early in the process (especially for me) to have strong opinions on how these guys match up against each other. This is especially true at a position like wide receiver where it would not be at all surprising to see any of the top six or seven guys eventually emerge as the consensus #1.
  3. Similarly, it must be noted that the value comps in the far right column are comparisons only to dynasty trade value and not playing style.

Pick

Player, Position, and School

Trade Value

Dynasty Value Comps

1.01

Josh Jacobs, RB Alabama

24

Dalvin Cook, Kerryon Johnson

1.02

Hakeem Butler, WR Iowa State

20

T.Y. Hilton, Corey Davis

1.03

D.K. Metcalf, WR Mississippi

18

Robert Woods, D.J. Moore

1.04

N'Keal Harry, WR Arizona State

17

D.J. Moore, A.J. Green

1.05

Kelvin Harmon, WR North Carolina State

16

Allen Robinson, Calvin Ridley

1.06

David Montgomery, RB Iowa State

15

Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack

1.07

Devin Singletary, RB Florida Atlantic

14

Phillip Lindsay, Derrick Henry

1.08

A.J. Brown, WR Mississippi

13

Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett

1.09

Marquise Brown, WR Oklahoma

11

Christian Kirk, Dante Pettis

1.10

TJ Hockenson, TE Iowa

10

O.J. Howard, David Njoku

1.11

Noah Fant, TE Iowa

9

David Njoku, Hunter Henry

1.12

Darrell Henderson, RB Memphis

8

Tarik Cohen, Rashaad Penny

2.01

JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR Stanford

7

Anthony Miller, Will Fuller V

2.02

Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma

6

Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson

2.03

Damien Harris, RB Alabama

6

Mark Ingram II, Royce Freeman

2.04

Deebo Samuel, WR South Carolina

6

Curtis Samuel, Marvin Jones Jr

2.05

Riley Ridley, WR Georgia

5

Daesean Hamilton, Robby Anderson

2.06

Irv Smith Jr., TE Alabama

5

Dallas Goedert, Trey Burton

2.07

Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio State

4

Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Darnold

2.08

Rodney Anderson, RB Oklahoma

4

Matt Breida, Kenyan Drake

2.09

Trayveon Williams, RB Texas A&M

4

Ronald Jones, Nyheim Hines

2.10

Parris Campbell, WR Ohio State

4

Zay Jones, Nelson Agholor

2.11

Emanuel Hall, WR Missouri

4

Deon Cain, Robert Foster

2.12

Mecole Hardman, WR Georgia

4

Deon Cain, Robert Foster

Is there a 1.01 Premium and could Josh Jacobs emerge as the top guy?

The consensus top rookies in the last four draft classes (Todd Gurley (2015), Ezekiel Elliott (2016), Leonard Fournette (2017), and Saquon Barkley (2018)) were all running backs. It is possible the streak could end this year — especially because it is a very down class at the position. Plus, nearly every early rookie mock draft has one of the wide receivers going 1.01. However, the bet here is at least one running back generates enough excitement over once we see where everyone lands to emerge as the consensus 1.01. The immediate fantasy impact the 2017 and 2018 running backs have had has dramatically swung the pendulum from “RB Zero” to the point where young running backs now dominate the early rounds of dynasty startup drafts. While we almost certainly won’t see the huge 1.01 values we saw in 2016 or 2018, if a top back lands in an exciting spot, we could see the dynasty trade value of the 1.01 rocket up by April.

There are a few backs with the potential to emerge as the 1.01 but the most likely looks to be Josh Jacobs. He has the type of well-rounded skillset (power, speed, receiving ability, and elusiveness) that could make him a fantasy star in PPR leagues. Jacobs has started to generate plenty of first-round hype as well from some of the top names in the scouting industry. Daniel Jeremiah (NFL Network) has Jacobs listed as the #6 overall prospect in his initial Top 50 and tabbed him as a Top-5 pick in his first mock draft. Matt Waldman is a fan and provides a great breakdown in this short video scouting report. Dane Brugler (The Athletic) ranks Jacobs as his top back and concludes his scouting report ($) by saying Jacobs has “the explosive and versatile traits to be a three-down feature weapon in the NFL with Pro Bowl upside.”

Based upon the ADP in startups and some recent trades involving the 1.01, dynasty players aren’t putting a big premium on the 1.01. Maybe they should be. If so, there is a potential buy-low window in early startups and leagues with active pre-draft trading.

The Strength of the 2019 Rookie Class

There is an understandable lack of excitement over the 2019 rookie class in general. It comes sandwiched between a loaded 2018 class and a potentially loaded 2020 class. That being said, there are still some very good prospects in this class.

The sheer number of wide receivers with first-round or early second-round hype stands out. This depth should make the mid-late first-round rookie picks just as valuable as they were in last season’s excellent class.

Know your league settings and adjust accordingly

One of the main reasons for the inclusion of some dynasty value comps in the rookie pick value chart above was to hopefully make it easier to adjust the general values to the specifics of your own dynasty league format.

For example, there should be even more of a premium on late first round picks in Tight End-Premium scoring leagues. It is easy to get excited about some of the top tight end prospects. Comparisons between TJ Hockenson and George Kittle are going to be ubiquitous and there are enough real similarities to make the comparison valid. With Kittle’s dynasty value way up, Hockenson is likely to emerge as a first-round rookie pick and maybe even a popular mid-1st round rookie pick in tight-end premium leagues. Noah Fant and Irv Smith also have the potential to emerge as coveted rookies in tight-end premium leagues.

Similarly, there are three or four quarterbacks consistently being mocked in the first round of the NFL Draft (Dwayne Haskins, Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, and Daniel Jones). Murray is especially interesting for fantasy purposes if he makes his intentions to pursue the NFL over baseball clear. He has legitimate-4.40 speed that gives him massive fantasy upside.

Quarterback

Rank

Pos

Player

Value

1

QB

Patrick Mahomes II II

25

2

QB

Deshaun Watson

10

3

QB

Andrew Luck

10

4

QB

Baker Mayfield

8

5

QB

Aaron Rodgers

7

6

QB

Russell Wilson

6

7

QB

Lamar Jackson

6

8

QB

Carson Wentz

6

9

QB

Cam Newton

5

10

QB

Jared Goff

4

11

QB

Mitchell Trubisky

4

12

QB

Kirk Cousins

4

13

QB

Matt Ryan

4

14

QB

Jimmy Garoppolo

4

15

QB

Dak Prescott

4

16

QB

Sam Darnold

4

17

QB

Josh Allen

3

18

QB

Drew Brees

3

19

QB

Philip Rivers

3

20

QB

Ben Roethlisberger

3

21

QB

Jameis Winston

3

22

QB

Tom Brady

3

23

QB

Marcus Mariota

2

24

QB

Josh Rosen

2

25

QB

Matthew Stafford

2

26

QB

Derek Carr

2

27

QB

Nick Foles

2

28

QB

Case Keenum

1

29

QB

Andy Dalton

1

30

QB

Ryan Tannehill

1

31

QB

Joe Flacco

1

32

QB

Nick Mullens

1

Value Notes

-Patrick Mahomes II is lapping the field in terms of his overall dynasty value. He is the only quarterback right now who can command significant trade value in one-quarterback leagues.

-Aside from Mahomes, Baker Mayfield may be the hottest commodity at the position currently. Especially in two-quarterback leagues, Mayfield’s youth and potential are extremely attractive. If the Cleveland Browns add a talented WR1 over the offseason, it could push Mayfield’s value even higher. Possibly all the way to QB2.

-Sam Darnold is another player who will see his value impacted by offseason player movement. Darnold showed enough flashes as a 21-year old rookie that excitement will build about his future if the New York Jets can add some pieces around him. An early-round wide receiver and a top pass-catching running back (Le’Veon Bell perhaps) would provide a significant value boost for Darnold.

Running Back

Rank

Pos

Player

Value

1

RB

Saquon Barkley

62

2

RB

Christian McCaffrey

55

3

RB

Ezekiel Elliott

55

4

RB

Todd Gurley

52

5

RB

Alvin Kamara

50

6

RB

Nick Chubb

33

7

RB

Joe Mixon

32

8

RB

Melvin Gordon III

32

9

RB

David Johnson

24

10

RB

Le'Veon Bell

24

11

RB

Dalvin Cook

24

12

RB

Kerryon Johnson

24

13

RB

James Conner

24

14

RB

Leonard Fournette

20

15

RB

Derrius Guice

19

16

RB

Sony Michel

18

17

RB

Aaron Jones

16

18

RB

Marlon Mack

14

19

RB

Damien Williams

14

20

RB

Kareem Hunt

13

21

RB

Phillip Lindsay

12

22

RB

Derrick Henry

12

23

RB

Devonta Freeman

11

24

RB

Tarik Cohen

10

25

RB

Rashaad Penny

9

26

RB

Chris Carson

8

27

RB

James White

8

28

RB

Tevin Coleman

8

29

RB

Jordan Howard

7

30

RB

Royce Freeman

7

31

RB

Jerick McKinnon

7

32

RB

Mark Ingram II

6

33

RB

Kenyan Drake

6

34

RB

Matt Breida

5

35

RB

Austin Ekeler

5

36

RB

Nyheim Hines

4

37

RB

Ronald Jones

4

38

RB

Jay Ajayi

4

39

RB

Gus Edwards

3

40

RB

Jaylen Samuels

3

41

RB

Chris Thompson

3

42

RB

Duke Johnson Jr

3

43

RB

Peyton Barber

3

44

RB

Josh Adams

3

45

RB

Lamar Miller

3

46

RB

Ito Smith

3

47

RB

LeSean McCoy

3

48

RB

Spencer Ware

3

49

RB

D'Onta Foreman

3

50

RB

Carlos Hyde

2

51

RB

Kalen Ballage

2

52

RB

Isaiah Crowell

2

53

RB

Rex Burkhead

2

54

RB

Elijah McGuire

2

55

RB

Kenneth Dixon

2

56

RB

C.J. Anderson

2

57

RB

Dion Lewis

2

58

RB

Theo Riddick

2

59

RB

Alex Collins

2

60

RB

Giovani Bernard

2

61

RB

Latavius Murray

2

62

RB

Chase Edmonds

2

63

RB

Jordan Wilkins

2

64

RB

Malcolm Brown

2

65

RB

Jamaal Williams

2

66

RB

Bilal Powell

2

67

RB

Corey Clement

1

68

RB

T.J. Yeldon

1

69

RB

Adrian Peterson

1

70

RB

Jeff Wilson Jr.

1

71

RB

Marshawn Lynch

1

72

RB

Doug Martin

1

73

RB

Mike Davis

1

74

RB

Corey Grant

1

75

RB

John Kelly

1

Value Notes

-The gap between Saquon Barkley and #2 has widened with Todd Gurley’s late-season struggles. It makes sense when you consider the fact Barkley is the early 1.01 in 2019 best ball drafts and that he doesn’t turn 22-years old until later in February. Barkley (or the 1.01 pick in startups) costs a king’s ransom to trade for.

-Speaking of Todd Gurley, his dynasty trade values feels like it is in a bit of limbo. His postseason swoon would have made sense if reports came out after the Super Bowl that he was playing through a knee injury. Instead, Gurley and Rams coaches insisted he was healthy. If true, the 50/50 timeshare throughout the playoffs with street free agent C.J. Anderson makes no sense whatsoever. The weird situation adds uncertainty, which negatively impacts his value. In short, if you want to trade Todd Gurley today, you will get a weaker return than you would have a few weeks ago.

-People are really excited about Nick Chubb. Based upon very early draft results, it looks like he is going to be a first-round pick in both redraft leagues and dynasty startups this offseason. It is easy to get excited about the future of the Browns offense and Chubb was excellent down the stretch, so his ascension makes sense. It feels like Chubb, Melvin Gordon III, and Joe Mixon have separated into their own three-man tier. There is still a gap between Chubb/Gordon/Mixon and Alvin Kamara at RB5, but there is now also a gap between that trio and the next tier (David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, etc.).

-Damien Williams and Kareem Hunt are the two biggest wild cards at the running back position. Williams is being drafted in the 2nd round of early best ball drafts and looks like the odds-on favorite to bet the go-to guy for the Chiefs next year. There have been some positive reports about Hunt being picked up by someone for 2019 (the Bears?) and being eligible to play sometime early next season. His value has rebounded since the January update, though it is still far below where it was last offseason.

Wide Receiver

Rank

Pos

Player

Value

1

WR

DeAndre Hopkins

46

2

WR

JuJu Smith-Schuster

42

3

WR

Tyreek Hill

40

4

WR

Michael Thomas

40

5

WR

Odell Beckham Jr

39

6

WR

Davante Adams

38

7

WR

Mike Evans

33

8

WR

Keenan Allen

28

9

WR

Julio Jones

26

10

WR

Antonio Brown

26

11

WR

Stefon Diggs

25

12

WR

Amari Cooper

24

13

WR

Kenny Golladay

23

14

WR

Brandin Cooks

22

15

WR

T.Y. Hilton

21

16

WR

Adam Thielen

21

17

WR

Corey Davis

19

18

WR

A.J. Green

18

19

WR

Robert Woods

18

20

WR

D.J. Moore

17

21

WR

Allen Robinson

15

22

WR

Calvin Ridley

15

23

WR

Courtland Sutton

15

24

WR

Tyler Boyd

14

25

WR

Cooper Kupp

14

26

WR

Jarvis Landry

14

27

WR

Chris Godwin

13

28

WR

Tyler Lockett

12

29

WR

Christian Kirk

11

30

WR

Dante Pettis

11

31

WR

Mike Williams

11

32

WR

James Washington

9

33

WR

Alshon Jeffery

8

34

WR

Anthony Miller

7

35

WR

Sammy Watkins

7

36

WR

Will Fuller V

7

37

WR

Doug Baldwin

6

38

WR

Keke Coutee

6

39

WR

Marvin Jones Jr

6

40

WR

Curtis Samuel

6

41

WR

Daesean Hamilton

5

42

WR

Antonio Callaway

5

43

WR

Julian Edelman

5

44

WR

Michael Gallup

5

45

WR

Robby Anderson

5

46

WR

Deon Cain

4

47

Zay Jones

4

48

WR

Tre'Quan Smith

4

49

WR

Sterling Shepard

4

50

WR

Robert Foster

4

51

WR

Rashard Higgins

3

52

WR

John Ross

3

53

WR

Dede Westbrook

3

54

WR

Golden Tate

3

55

WR

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

3

56

Adam Humphries

3

57

WR

Nelson Agholor

3

58

WR

Larry Fitzgerald

2

59

WR

Keith Kirkwood

2

60

WR

Albert Wilson

2

61

WR

Josh Doctson

2

62

WR

Geronimo Allison

2

63

WR

Donte Moncrief

2

64

WR

Equanimeous St. Brown

2

65

WR

David Moore

2

66

WR

Devin Funchess

2

67

WR

Kenny Stills

2

68

WR

Demaryius Thomas

2

69

WR

Jamison Crowder

2

70

WR

Quincy Enunwa

2

71

WR

Josh Reynolds

2

72

WR

Emmanuel Sanders

2

73

WR

DeVante Parker

2

74

WR

Taywan Taylor

1

75

WR

Chris Conley

1

76

WR

Jordy Nelson

1

77

WR

D.J. Chark Jr

1

78

WR

Paul Richardson Jr

1

79

WR

Keelan Cole

1

80

WR

Marquise Goodwin

1

81

WR

Ted Ginn Jr Jr.

1

82

WR

John Brown

1

83

WR

Chris Hogan

1

84

WR

Randall Cobb

1

85

WR

Desean Jackson

1

Value Notes

-JuJu Smith-Schuster is the biggest riser in the early part of the offseason. This is partially due to the expectation Antonio Brown will be traded and Smith-Schuster will see even more targets in the Pittsburgh offense. It is also due to the offseason providing more time for everyone to really focus in on the importance of youth, which will contribute to Smith-Schuster’s rise. He is four years younger than Odell Beckham Jr, Davante Adams and a majority of the guys from the loaded 2014 wide receiver class that have dominated the top tier in recent years. Smith-Schuster is also going off the board in early 2019 best ball drafts in the same range as Beckham. Thus, it shouldn’t be a shock Smith-Schuster is a hot dynasty commodity. In fact, don’t be shocked if he emerges as the dynasty WR1 by the summer.

-Odell Beckham Jr, Jr. has seen his dynasty value slide of late. We all know Beckham is a special talent but he hasn’t been a huge fantasy difference-maker over the past two seasons (WR15 in 2018 and WR84 in 2017). Injuries were the biggest issue but Beckham’s down numbers have also been due to Eli Manning’s lack of aggressiveness and the addition of a star pass-catching running back. It would be a lot easier to get excited about Beckham’s fantasy prospects if the Giants finally land their long-term franchise quarterback (perhaps Dwayne Haskins?). It may make Beckham a little bit of a “buy-low” (his value isn’t low overall but is lower than it has been at compared to each of the last three offseasons) in the lead up to the draft. On the other hand, if the Giants head into 2019 with Manning and not much else, Beckham’s value could continue to slide.

-How much does Allen Robinson’s star turn in the playoffs boost his dynasty value? In the regular season, Robinson topped 85 receiving yards just once. He also had only one game with more six receptions. Robinson finished WR39 and even adjusting for the few games he missed, he was basically a replacement-level WR3 for fantasy purposes. Then Robinson went out and caught 10 passes for 143 yards and a touchdown in the Bears 16-15 loss to Philadelphia and reminded everyone how great he can be.

Tight End

Rank

Pos

Player

Value

1

TE

Travis Kelce

28

2

TE

George Kittle

26

3

TE

Zach Ertz

24

4

TE

O.J. Howard

11

5

TE

David Njoku

10

6

TE

Hunter Henry

9

7

TE

Eric Ebron

9

8

TE

Evan Engram

8

9

TE

Austin Hooper

5

10

TE

Dallas Goedert

5

11

TE

Chris Herndon

5

12

TE

Trey Burton

5

13

TE

Ian Thomas

5

14

TE

Kyle Rudolph

4

15

TE

Mark Andrews

4

16

TE

Rob Gronkowski

3

17

TE

Greg Olsen

3

18

TE

Jack Doyle

3

19

TE

Gerald Everett

3

20

TE

Delanie Walker

3

21

TE

Jared Cook

3

22

TE

Mike Gesicki

3

23

TE

Jordan Reed

2

24

TE

Vance McDonald

2

25

TE

Tyler Eifert

2

26

TE

CJ Uzomah

2

27

TE

Hayden Hurst

2

28

TE

Jordan Thomas

1

29

TE

Will Dissly

1

30

TE

Jonnu Smith

1

31

TE

Jimmy Graham

1

32

TE

Jeff Heuerman

1

33

TE

Ricky Seals-Jones

1

34

TE

Jesse James

1

35

TE

Cameron Brate

1

36

TE

Austin Seferian-Jenkins

1

37

TE

Adam Shaheen

1

38

TE

Jake Butt

1

Value Notes

-One of the most interesting storylines to follow at the position this offseason will be how some of the mid-round 2018 rookies are valued. Chris Herndon, Ian Thomas, and Mark Andrews each put together productive rookies seasons. The learning curve is so steep at the position, even the modest rookie impacts made by these three are impressive given historical contest. On the one hand, we can chalk up the early production to these guys being amongst the best of bad options (especially Herndon and Andrews) and assume we won’t see a big boost in targets going forward. On the other hand, the typical production curve at the position would point to each of these guys making a leap in year two.

-O.J. Howard’s potential usage in the new Bruce Arians offense will be another key storyline to follow this offseason. Any hints we get from OTAs and the preseason will bear close watching because Howard looked like a big-time playmaker before injury in 2018. If Arians can adjust his offense to give some of the deep ball opportunities to Howard, he could have a breakout season.