Dynasty Trade Value Chart: October - Footballguys

Quantifying Long-Term Player Values for Dynasty Leagues

The October version of the Dynasty Trade Value Chart focuses in on the big-picture trends and storylines of the first month of the NFL season. Understanding the direction of the league overall is a prerequisite to properly valuing individual players and formulating a winning dynasty strategy. Specifically, we will focus in on how to adapt to a changing environment where passing productivity has exploded, running backs are catching more passes than ever, and most top offenses are spreading the ball around more.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering.

Timing Note: New Dynasty Trade Value Chart articles will appear on the first Tuesday of every month.

Quarterback

Rank
Player
2018 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
3
10
13
2
2
9
11
3
1.5
8.5
10
4
1.5
8.5
10
5
2
7
9
6
1.5
6.5
8
7
1
6
7
8
1
5
6
9
0.5
5.5
6
10
1
4
5
11
1
4
5
12
1.5
3
4.5
13
1.5
2.5
4
14
1
3
4
15
0
4
4
16
1.5
2
3.5
17
1
2
3
18
0.5
2.5
3
19
0.5
2.5
3
20
0.5
2.5
3
21
0
3
3
22
0.5
2
2.5
23
0.5
1.5
2
24
0.5
1.5
2
25
0.5
1.5
2
26
0.5
1.5
2
27
0
2
2
28
0
2
2
29
0
1.5
1.5
30
0
1
1
31
0
1
1
32
0
1
1
33
0
1
1

Rising Tide Lowers All Ships

Easily the top storyline for the month of September was the explosion of passing productivity across the entire NFL. Chase Stuart has been all over this storyline with articles detailing the explosion in passing yardage and touchdowns. The stats are incredible. For example, in Week 4 starting NFL quarterbacks averaged 304 passing yards. What was once considered elite is now becoming the norm. Players like Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Blake Bortles are putting up fantasy numbers we typically expect only out of future Hall of Famers.

It was a theme here all offseason how the fantasy depth at the position has expanded in recent years. In part, the increased depth is due to veteran quarterbacks remaining productive well past the age once considered to be their prime years. We have also seen a major influx of exciting new talents to the NFL over just the last three seasons. Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes II, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, and others have given us a new generation of stars at the position.

The result is the replacement value (QB12 numbers) in one-quarterback leagues is rising to the point where very few quarterbacks provide any significant weekly advantage. Plus, every fantasy team seems to have at least one or two strong options at the position. Thus, values are down across the board.

Value Movers

Jared Goff In the short-term, defensive injuries for the Rams boost Goff’s fantasy prospects. With the defense allowing just 6.5 points per game in the first two games, Goff threw just 3 touchdowns. In the two games since, with the Rams defense allowing 27 points per game, Goff has thrown 8 touchdown passes. Goff’s prospects also look brighter long-term. He may have the best weapons in the game and none of them are going anywhere. Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks are both signed until 2024, Cooper Kupp is signed until 2021, and Robert Woods until 2022. He also has the best young coach in the NFL drawing up plays. When considering current productivity and age, Goff is worth more than veterans like Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson.

Baker Mayfield Mayfield looks like the cream of the crop in the rookie class. It is easy to be excited about his long-term upside, which makes him one of the hottest commodities at the position in dynasty leagues. In his first two games, Mayfield has passed the eye test with flying colors. There are going to be some growing pains and he could be limited somewhat by his supporting cast, but it is hard to bet against Mayfield at this point. Plus, the Browns have the draft picks and cap space to add a true #1 wide receiver in the near future.

Russell Wilson Wilson slides to QB8 and is in danger of falling further with exciting prospects like Mayfield right behind him. Wilson has played okay this season but it is impossible to dismiss concerns about the coaching and surrounding talent on the Seattle offense both short and long-term. The offensive line is terrible, play-calling unimaginative, and the receiving talent is mediocre. Through four games Wilson sits at QB20 and doesn’t look like a real fantasy difference-maker in an environment when so many other quarterbacks are putting up video-game passing numbers. Wilson is just one example of the collapsing value at the position. Once valued at a premium, players like Wilson should be available on the cheap for anyone looking to bolster their rosters at quarterback.

Running Back

Rank
Player
2018 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
13
45
58
2
12
43
55
3
11
39
50
4
9
39
48
5
10
28
38
6
8
28
36
7
10
26
36
8
7
21
28
9
4
24
28
10
Le'Veon Bell
4
24
28
11
8
18
26
12
4
16
20
13
3
15
18
14
3
15
18
15
0
18
18
16
3
13
16
17
2
14
16
18
4
10
14
19
1
13
14
20
4
8
12
21
2
9
11
22
2
7
9
23
2
7
9
24
0.5
8.5
9
25
4
4
8
26
4
4
8
27
2
6
8
28
2
6
8
29
1.5
6.5
8
30
3
4
7
31
1
5
6
32
1
5
6
33
2
4
6
34
1.5
4.5
6
35
1
5
6
35
Phillip Lindsay
1
5
6
36
0
6
6
37
Ronald Jones
0
6
6
38
3
2
5
39
2
3
5
40
1
4
5
41
1
4
5
42
1
4
5
43
3
1
4
44
2
2
4
45
1
3
4
46
1
3
4
47
1
3
4
48
D'Onta Foreman
0
4
4
49
0
4
4
50
1
2
3
51
1
2
3
52
1
2
3
53
1
2
3
54
0.5
2.5
3
55
0.5
2.5
3
56
0
3
3
57
0
3
3
58
0
3
3
59
1
1
2
60
1
1
2
61
0.5
1.5
2

Breaking the Game

Going back to offseason themes, one of the major ones was the rising importance of running backs who excel as both pass catchers and runners. The key stat we kept going back to was that each of the running backs in the Top 9 of PPR scoring in 2017 had 53 or more receptions.

The pass-catching running back continues to break the game in PPR scoring and the trend seems to be intensifying early in 2018. Some of the early stats are mind-blowing:

If it was just one or two running backs putting up crazy receiving stats, it would be easy to chalk it up to a small sample size. But that is 11 running backs on pace for 72+ catches. Our list also does not include Le'Veon Bell, Joe Mixon, and David Johnson, each of whom will probably end up putting up big catch per game numbers before all is said and done. It also doesn’t include backs like Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott, who are on pace for just 60 receptions.

Future dynasty startups may look to change the scoring settings but for all existing leagues with full-PPR, we have to dramatically adjust our strategy and player valuations for the new reality of so many running backs putting up WR-like receiving numbers in addition to all of their production on the ground.

What will happen in Pittsburgh?

The RB1 job for the Steelers is a plum job. Whoever is in the position is a near-lock for RB1 fantasy stats considering how dominant the Pittsburgh offense has been and the way the scheme uses the running back in the passing game. Reports have Le'Veon Bell returning by Week 7, which just adds to the questions:

  • How will Bell and Conner be used this season?
  • Will Bell be traded?
  • If Bell leaves, how productive will he be in a lesser offense?
  • Is Conner in line to be the top guy long-term or will Pittsburgh be looking to upgrade in the draft?

There are a lot of moving parts here, which means the value of both Bell and Conner is highly volatile. It is easy to imagine a scenario where both are top-7 dynasty backs at this time next season and we wish we had bought low on the uncertainty. It is also easy to imagine Bell in a bad offense having problems similar to David Johnson and Conner stuck in a committee with a talented rookie and we wish we had sold high when we had the chance. Forming your own opinion on situations like this is half the fun of dynasty. Think about how you see thing playing out and do not be afraid to test the waters in your league with offers for either of these backs.

Value Movers

Alvin Kamara It will be interesting to see how the return of Mark Ingram II impacts Kamara’s production. However, it is clear Kamara is a special talent and he is Exhibit A in making the case for the way running back production the receiving game is changing the fantasy football.

Christian McCaffrey If Kamara is Exhibit A, McCaffrey is Exhibit B. We knew he might flirt with 100 receptions, but the question was his workload as a running back. The first three weeks should put those to rest. With 46 carries and 22 receptions, McCaffrey is averaging 22.8 touches per game this season.

Sony Michel The rookie running back class has mostly disappointed. However, we are seeing signs of improvement for Michel. Royce Freeman, Derrius Guice, Kerryon Johnson, and Nick Chubb have also shown enough for real hope going forward

Aaron Jones Jones moves up to RB26. After serving his two-game suspension, he has clearly been the Packers top back in the two games since he returned. The big question will be how large his slice of the pie will be. It may be that we see something like a 40/30/30 split with Jones, Jamaal Williams, and Ty Montgomery. Or it could be Jones is able to handle 60% of the touches. If the Packers decide to give him a solid workload, the offense is explosive enough and Jones talented enough to move up the rankings further.

Wide Receiver

Rank
Player
2018 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
8
37
45
2
Odell Beckham
8
37
45
3
8
37
45
4
7
30
37
5
7
28
35
6
6
25
31
7
9
21
30
8
8
21
29
9
6
23
29
10
7
21
28
11
7
24
27
12
6
21
27
13
7
18
25
14
5
20
25
15
4
18
22
16
3
18
21
17
3
18
21
18
4
16
20
19
2
18
20
20
5
13
18
21
4
12
16
22
2
12
14
23
2
12
14
24
4
9
13
25
1
12
13
26
4
8
12
27
3
7
10
28
1
9
10
29
2
7
9
30
2
7
9
31
2
7
9
32
2
7
9
33
3
5
8
34
3
5
8
35
2
6
8
36
2
6
8
37
2
6
8
38
1
7
8
39
1
7
8
40
0
8
8
41
1
6
7
42
1
6
7
43
1
6
7
44
2
4
6
45
1
5
6
46
1
5
6
47
0
6
6
48
2
3
5
49
2
3
5
50
2
3
5
51
Desean Jackson
2
3
5
52
1
4
5
53
1
4
5
54
1
4
5
55
1
4
5
56
0
5
5
57
Donte Pettis
0
5
5
58
2
2
4
59
2
2
4
60
1
3
4
61
1
3
4
62
1
3
4
63
1
3
4
64
1
3
4
65
1
3
4
66
0
4
4
67
0
4
4
68
0
4
4
69
1
2
3
70
1
2
3
71
1
2
3
72
1
2
3
73
1
2
3
74
1
2
3
75
0
3
3
76
Cam Meredith
0
3
3
77
0
3
3
78
0
3
3
79
1
1
2
80
1
1
2
81
0
2
2
82
1
0
1
83
0
1
1
84
0
1
1

The Rising Tide Lifts WR2s but Sinks WR1s

We have seen a massive rise in passing yardage and passing touchdowns early this season. However, we aren’t seeing an explosion in production for the elite wide receivers. So what is happening?

The trend in the top offenses is the increased yardage and touchdowns are mostly going to secondary targets and true WR1s in elite offenses are increasingly rare. The examples are numerous:

Overall, the trend towards top teams being less reliant on one pass catcher means less separation between fantasy WR1s and WR2s. It also produces a deeper pool of strong options each week and means we don’t necessarily have to have an elite wide receiver to win our weekly matchups.

Value Movers

Cooper Kupp After a big Week 4, Kupp is now WR6 through four weeks and is a player who you feel great about having in your lineup every week. He could be Exhibit A in our case for the changing value landscape at the receiver position. We do not need to have a roster full of physical freaks like Julio Jones with elite size and speed to put up big fantasy points.

Calvin Ridley Ridley is off to a monster start with six touchdowns in his first four games. If we redrafted 2018 rookie drafts today, Ridley would be the 1.02.

Will Fuller V The Fuller-Watson connection continues to be incredible, and if he can stay healthy can put up numbers to rival DeAndre Hopkins. Fuller will be a rich man soon as hisspeed is one of the most valuable commodities in today’s NFL.

Tight End

Rank
Player
2018 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
6
18
24
2
5
15
20
3
5
12
17
4
3
5
8
5
2
6
8
6
1
7
8
7
1
6
7
8
0
7
7
9
3
3
6
10
2
4
6
11
1
5
6
12
0
6
6
13
3
2
5
14
2
3
5
15
2
3
5
16
0
5
5
17
1
3
4
18
0
4
4
19
1
2
3
20
1
2
3
21
1
2
3
22
1
2
3
23
1
2
3
24
1
2
3
25
0
3
3
26
0
3
3
27
0
3
3
28
2
0
2
29
1
1
2
30
CJ Uzomah
1
1
2
31
1
1
2
32
1
1
2
33
0
2
2
34
0
1
1
35
0
1
1
36
0
1
1
37
0
1
1
38
0
1
1

A collapsing second tier

The top storyline at the tight end position is the disappearance of a true second-tier at the tight end position behind the three guys at the top.

Hunter Henry is out for the season. Evan Engram is out short-term but hasn’t been overly productive when on the field. David Njoku isn’t having the breakout season many expected.

There simply isn’t anyone to feel great about as the TE4 in dynasty. If you don’t have one of the Top 3, it probably makes sense to rely on depth to get yourself through the season and to give yourself the ability to play matchups and ride the hot hand.

Value Movers

Jared Cook Through four games, Cook is the fantasy TE1. He has a great connection with Derek Carr and has a massive role in John Gruden’s Oakland offense. Plus, one of the early fantasy takeaways from this season has been the wisdom of focusing on short-term production at the tight end position. Injuries are a major problem for tight ends and, outside of the top few guys, we see major variations from year-to-year in the size of the role these tight ends have.

Tyler Eifert Eifert was looking fantastic in recent weeks but suffered yet another season-ending injury in Week 4. It is especially tough for him because he was playing on a one-year deal trying to improve his stock for free agency next offseason. While the injury doesn’t look to be career-ending, it will continue to be tough for teams to count on Eifert as a prime piece of their offensive systems. It does present a potential buy-low window for non-contending teams on a talented player still in his prime years.