Dynasty Trade Value Chart: November - Footballguys

Long-Term Player Values for Dynasty Leagues

November is the best time of year to put together win-win trades. Contending teams should be looking to add the last few pieces to try to maximize their chances of playoff success. Rebuilding teams should be trying to buy low on injured players, unproductive rookies, and future picks. We will focus on some trade targets for rebuilding teams at each position.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering.

Timing Note: New Dynasty Trade Value Chart articles will appear on the first Tuesday of every month.

Valuing Draft Picks

The first task in trying to accurately value rookie picks is to figure out what kind of rookie class we are looking at. Unfortunately, it is hard to get excited about the 2019 class.

The lone bright spot is the wide receiver position, which is slightly above average. It lacks a standout star and, like last year, we probably don’t see the first wide receiver go off the board in the NFL Draft until later in the first round. However, it is a deeper than normal group. Players like N’Keal Harry, A.J. Brown, and Kelvin Harmon should be top-50 picks and are relatively comparable to somebody like Courtland Sutton at the same stage. The big difference between 2018 and 2019 is that you could get Sutton (and most of the other top receiver prospects like Calvin Ridley, Anthony Miller, James Washington, and Christian Kirk) in the late-1st or early-2nd of your rookie drafts. Similar receiver prospects this year are going to go off the board early in the first round of rookie drafts because the other skill positions are much weaker.

The inflated rookie draft stock of the wide receivers is due to an especially down year at running back. We could certainly see a couple guys go in the second or third round of the NFL Draft and emerge later in the process as premium fantasy assets (like Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara in 2017) but there aren’t any obvious first-round talents like we’ve seen in recent years with Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, and Todd Gurley.

It looks pretty ugly at quarterback too, especially with Justin Herbert of Oregon strongly considering sticking around for another season. This will especially devalue rookie picks in Superflex leagues.

Within that context, here is a rough value of 2019 rookie picks:

Tip for the patient: The 2020 rookie class looks absolutely loaded. All things being equal, the savvy move is to stock up on 2020 picks in deals now and throughout the offseason instead of targeting 2019 picks.

Rookie Pick

Value

Early 1st

18

Mid 1st

13

Late 1st

8

Early 2nd

5

Mid-Late 2nd

4

3rd

2

4th

1

Quarterback

Rank
Player
2018 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
5
15
20
2
3
9
12
3
3
7
10
4
2
8
10
5
2
8
10
6
2
7
9
7
2
6
8
8
2
4
6
9
2
4
6
10
1
5
6
11
2
3
5
12
1
4
5
13
0
5
5
14
2
2
4
15
1
3
4
16
1
2
3
17
1
2
3
18
1
2
3
19
0
3
3
20
0
3
3
21
1
1
2
22
0
2
2
23
0
2
2
24
0
2
2
25
0
2
2
26
0
1
1
27
0
1
1
28
0
1
1
29
0
1
1
30
0
1
1
31
0
1
1
32
0
1
1

All About Mahomes

It feels like the only big story at the quarterback position right now is the emergence of Mahomes as a superstar. We’ve mentioned often how the quarterback position has been devalued across the board in fantasy due to the depth at the position. Mahomes is the exception to this trend and the lone quarterback worth a real premium haul in a dynasty trade.

Trade Targets

Mitch Trubisky has been middling as a real NFL quarterback and that keeps his dynasty value relatively low. However, the fantasy upside is real. Trubisky averaged nearly 60 rushing yards and 3.25 passing touchdowns per game in October. In an offense that is still young, there is some real long-term upside here.

Speaking of upside, Lamar Jackson could be a fantasy game-changer in future seasons if his passing develops. He is going to put up huge rushing numbers when he has the ball in his hands every snap.

Running Back

Rank
Player
2018 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
13
51
64
2
11
47
58
3
11
43
54
4
10
37
47
5
9
29
38
6
9
29
38
7
8
27
35
8
9
23
32
9
7
21
28
10
6
22
28
11
3
25
28
12
Le'Veon Bell
3
25
28
13
4
20
24
14
3
16
19
15
3
16
19
16
3
15
18
17
0
18
18
18
4
12
16
19
3
11
14
20
2
11
13
21
0
12
12
22
4
6
10
23
2
8
10
24
2
7
9
25
3
5
8
26
2
6
8
27
2
6
8
28
0
8
8
29
2
5
7
30
2
5
7
31
2
5
7
32
2
5
7
33
2
5
7
34
1
6
7
35
1
6
7
36
1
5
6
37
1
5
6
38
1
5
6
39
0
6
6
40
Ronald Jones
0
6
6
41
2
3
5
42
1
4
5
43
0
5
5
44
1
3
4
45
1
3
4
46
1
3
4
47
0
4
4
48
1
2
3
49
1
2
3
50
1
2
3
51
1
2
3
52
D'Onta Foreman
0
3
3
53
0
3
3
54
0
3
3
55
0
3
3
56
1
1
2
57
1
1
2
58
1
1
2
59
0
2
2

Impossible to Get?

How do we value Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara at this point? It seems almost impossible to add any of these three in dynasty leagues—assuming one of the three isn’t on the other side of the offer. We’ve talked here often how the elite pass-catching running backs are like a cheat code in PPR scoring. These three provide such a massive advantage in the short-term and should be elite for a long time. In terms of dynasty trade value, there is some separation between this group and the top wide receivers (and the rest of the pack at running back).

Dice Roll at 28

The four running backs all tied with a trade value of 28 are amongst the toughest players to value in all of dynasty right now. The values of these four backs are highly volatile. Any of the four could move significantly higher or lower depending upon how the next six months play out. We have a couple very talented guys who were very recently in the elite tier in David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell. Johnson has been the victim of questionable coaching and poor surrounding talent. Bell shot himself in the foot with the ill-advised holdout and we have to weigh the possibilities of his ending up in just as bad a situation next season as Johnson finds himself in now. James Conner continues to see his value rise. How high is too high? Conner is talented, if not quite elite. However, the starting job in Pittsburgh is such a plum spot he could put up elite fantasy numbers in 2019 and beyond if Bell leaves and Conner remains in the same role. Fournette is missing time due to injuries for the third straight season. He also finds himself in an offense that is regressing. Even if he does get healthy for the stretch run, he may still struggle to make a big fantasy impact behind a beat-up offensive line. He’s also an extremely talented back who may be the rare 25-touch workhorse when he returns.

Quick Look at Biggest Movers Since October

Kareem Hunt had a slow finish to 2017 and averaged just 12 fantasy points per game in September. His value had dipped a bit. Over the last month, it has rebounded in a big way. Hunt has posted four games of 25+ fantasy points since October 1st and is pushing towards the elite tier at the top of the rankings.

Marlon Mack returned from injury and put together back-to-back monster fantasy games to end the month of October. All of a sudden the Indianapolis offensive line looks outstanding and the lead role in the backfield next to Andrew Luck looks like one of the best running back jobs in the NFL. We have a small sample size with Mack behind this rebuilt line and it was against weak competition in recent weeks. So we don’t want to get carried away and overvalue Mack. On the other hand, the upside here looks huge. Any fair trade offer for Mack should reflect the realistic upside of this emerging Indianapolis offense.

Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen The Chicago backfield has been tough to predict from week to week. However, we now have a big enough sample size now to see which back has the most value in PPR leagues—Tarik Cohen is RB14 and Jordan Howard is RB27. Howard is further proof that a back that isn’t much involved as a pass catcher has an uphill battle to make a fantasy impact in PPR leagues. On the other hand, Cohen is on pace for 60+ receptions. That works in our lineups.

Trade Targets

Derrius Guice isn’t going to be dirt cheap but this is probably the best time to buy at a slight discount. It is worth remembering how good the Washington rushing offense looked before the slew of offensive line injuries. When this offense struggles down the stretch, keep the injuries in mind.

Dalvin Cook’s speed on that long run in his first game back may have slammed the buy-low window shut a bit. However, Cook has been out of sight and out of mind for so long, he still sees his dynasty value on a low ebb.

Ito Smith has carved out a real role in Atlanta with Devonta Freeman out. He should make Tevin Coleman expendable next offseason and continue in the same role behind Freeman, which gives him some low-end flex appeal. However, Freeman hasn’t shown much ability to stay healthy so Smith will also have some serious value as a handcuff. He is exactly the type of cheap youth to target as a rebuilding team if moving an aging veteran like Larry Fitzgerald or Tom Brady.

Wide Receiver

Rank
Player
2018 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
9
41
50
2
9
38
47
3
8
37
45
4
10
25
35
5
7
27
34
6
7
24
32
7
7
25
32
8
9
21
30
9
6
24
30
10
6
24
30
11
8
20
28
12
5
21
26
13
4
18
22
14
2
18
20
15
2
17
19
16
2
17
19
17
4
14
18
18
2
16
18
19
4
14
18
20
2
14
16
21
2
14
16
22
3
13
16
23
3
11
14
24
4
10
14
25
2
12
14
26
0
14
14
27
3
9
12
28
3
9
12
29
1
9
10
30
Tre'Quan Smith
1
9
10
31
2
8
10
32
2
8
10
33
3
7
10
34
1
8
9
35
3
6
9
36
0
8
8
37
2
6
8
38
1
6
7
39
1
6
7
40
2
5
7
41
3
4
7
42
1
6
7
43
2
4
6
44
1
5
6
45
1
5
6
46
2
4
6
47
1
4
5
48
0
5
5
49
Desean Jackson
2
3
5
50
2
3
5
51
0
5
5
52
1
4
5
53
1
4
5
54
1
4
5
55
1
4
5
56
0
4
4
57
0
4
4
58
1
3
4
59
1
3
4
60
1
3
4
61
1
3
4
62
1
3
4
63
1
3
4
64
1
3
4
65
1
2
3
66
1
2
3
67
0
3
3
68
1
1
2
69
0
2
2
70
1
1
2
71
0
2
2
72
1
1
2
73
0
2
2
74
1
1
2
75
1
1
2
76
0
2
2
77
1
1
2

Rise of the Rookies

October was a good month for the value of many of the rookie wide receivers. Let’s run down some of the biggest movers:

  • Calvin Ridley keeps catching touchdowns. Another trip to the end zone in Week 9 gives him seven touchdowns in his last seven games. There are some obvious parallels between Ridley and JuJu Smith-Schuster. The latter has become a top-20 dynasty asset despite the presence of Antonio Brown. Ridley might not be too far behind him.
  • Courtland Sutton still hasn’t had his big breakout game but his stock is on fire due to the flashes he has shown. It feels like just a matter of time. The trade of Demaryius Thomas added further fuel to the fire.
  • D.J. Moore did have his breakout game, with 129 total yards in Week 8. He is a prime candidate to make another big jump up in value this month if he is able to start establishing himself as the clear top receiver in Carolina.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling is one of the hottest dynasty names after putting up 100+ yards in two-of-three games. He is a 24-year old rookie with elite measurables and could be the next big thing. Or he could be a flash in the pan. Time will tell.
  • Christian Kirk is quietly starting to get it rolling in Arizona. He’s now on pace for a 61-820-4 line in his rookie season. Not bad at all considering he’s a 21-year old rookie in an awful offense.
  • Tre’Quan Smith has become the clear #2 receiver in New Orleans. Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara still dominate targets but Smith could carve out enough of a role to make a fantasy impact going forward.

What is Adam Thielen Worth?

In the early years of the dynasty trade value chart, the question was often why Antonio Brown wasn’t valued more highly. Perhaps because of the lack of NFL draft pedigree, It took time for the dynasty community to fully catch on to Brown’s true value despite the big numbers he was putting up. We may be seeing a similar phenomenon with Thielen. His ADP in midseason mock drafts and the returns in most recent trades I’ve seen don’t fully reflect Thielen’s emergence as an elite fantasy asset.

Trade Targets

Will Fuller V has a hard time staying healthy and the recent trade for Demaryius may cloud perception about Fuller’s long-term value. However, Fuller should be right back in the WR2 role in Houston as soon as he is healthy.

It may never happen for John Ross but the price is right to roll the dice and find out. It took Tyler Boyd and Nelson Agholor until their third seasons to escape the bust label and Ross may be on the same delayed trajectory.

T.Y. Hilton had been injured and has been surprisingly quiet upon his return. His trade value is definitely down. It could bounce back in a big way if he gets healthy, though. The Indianapolis offense could be excellent next season and Hilton still has a few more prime seasons.

Speaking of the surprisingly good Indianapolis offense, don’t forget about Deon Cain. He looked like a potential impact rookie prior to his ACL injury. Cain is exactly the type of IR player to target when moving an aging veteran to a contender.

Tight End

Rank
Player
2018 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
6
18
24
2
5
15
20
3
3
12
15
4
3
12
15
5
3
5
8
6
2
6
8
7
1
7
8
8
0
8
8
9
1
6
7
10
0
6
6
11
2
3
5
12
2
3
5
13
2
3
5
14
1
4
5
15
1
4
5
16
0
5
5
17
1
3
4
18
1
3
4
19
1
2
3
20
1
2
3
21
1
2
3
22
0
3
3
23
0
3
3
24
0
3
3
25
2
0
2
26
CJ Uzomah
1
1
2
27
1
1
2
28
1
1
2
29
0
2
2
30
0
2
2
31
0
2
2
32
0
2
2
33
0
1
1
34
0
1
1
35
0
1
1
36
0
1
1

Stick a Fork In Gronk?

Gronkowski’s stock was way down in the offseason when he nearly retired. But it rebounded in a big way when he showed up with a restructured contract and went right back to being a popular second-round redraft pick and top-3 dynasty tight end. Now he is injured yet again and looks like a shell of his former self when he is on the field. Is it the end? There are probably enough believers out there to still get some value in return if you have Gronkowski and think retirement is seriously on the table in the near future.

The Rise of George Kittle and O.J. Howard

The two biggest winners at the tight end position this season have been George Kittle and O.J. Howard. Kittle is the clear top weapon in the San Francisco passing offense. He has a bright future under the tutelage of Kyle Shanahan, especially if Jimmy Garoppolo can recapture some of the 2017 magic when he returns next season. Howard is becoming one of the go-to weapons in Tampa Bay. The production is starting to match the measurables and we don’t know what the ceiling could be. The only negative is the future of the Tampa Bay offense is very much in flux due to the struggles of Jameis Winston.

Injury Buy-Low Opportunities

Non-contenders should be targeting Hunter Henry in trades. He is very young and a talented pass catcher who should put up TE1 numbers for a long time.

Tyler Eifert, Delanie Walker, and Will Dissly might not be worth pursuing as standalone targets but at least make nice throw-in options in trade. You can never have too much depth at the position.

We know it almost always takes rookies a few seasons to emerge but that doesn’t stop impatient dynasty players from cutting bait too early on young tight ends. Hayden Hurst has the first-round pedigree and is at least seeing the field a good amount after returning from injury.