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Dynasty Trade Value Chart: August - Footballguys

Quantifying Long-Term Player Value for Dynasty Leagues

August is the month when we see the most movement in terms of dynasty values. Preseason performances and the seemingly constant stream of information coming out of training camp cause the value of some young guys to skyrocket while the offseason hype of others slowly fades.

It is also perhaps the most challenging time of year in dynasty. The goal is to thread the needle between taking into account every relevant report and adjusting prior opinions to take into account new information while not overreacting unnecessarily. Easier said than done. Further complicating matters is the often contradictory nature of training camp reports from day-to-day (and from reporter to reporter) and the prevalence of confirmation bias from analysts.

August is also a great time to take advantage of all that Footballguys offers. The weekly training camp reports are invaluable for dynasty owners and help you take in all of the relevant camp news while filtering out some of the noise. Subscribers should also feel free to contact me directly with any dynasty trade or valuation questions via twitter (@hindery), email (hindery@footballguys.com) or in the forums.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade should be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, it is a trade offer worth strongly considering.

The August update will go in-depth on the return of Andrew Luck, the changing age curves at quarterback, how to value Le'Veon Bell and LeSean McCoy, the death of the Zero-RB strategy, early risers at wide receiver, and the top trade target at tight end.

Quarterbacks

Rank
Quarterback
2018 Value Future Value Total Value
1
4
10
14
2
4
10
14
3
4
9
13
4
4
8
12
5
3
5
8
6
2
6
8
7
2
5
7
8
2
5
7
9
2
4
6
10
2
4
6
11
1
5
6
12
1
5
6
13
1
5
6
14
0
6
6
15
3
2
5
16
2
3
5
17
2
3
5
18
1
4
5
19
1
4
5
20
1
3
4
21
1
3
4
22
1
3
4
23
0
4
4
24
0
4
4
25
0
4
4
26
1
2
3
27
0
3
3
28
1
1
2
29
1
1
2
30
1
1
2
31
1
1
2
32
1
0
1
33
1
0
1
34
1
0
1
35
0
1
1
36
0
1
1

Buy-Low Window on Andrew Luck Still Open?

Perhaps the biggest early training camp news at the quarterback position is the fact that Andrew Luck has been able to get out there every day and throw without any setbacks. Not too long ago, Luck was the consensus choice as the top dynasty quarterback. His dynasty ADP slid all the way to QB10 a few months ago. It has rebounded to QB6, so the window to buy low is starting to close. However, in startups Luck is still going at least a few rounds below the top passers and he is quite a bit cheaper to acquire in trade than the top-4 passers are. With what looks to be a successful return to action, expect Luck’s value to quickly rebound and for him to regain his status as a top-five dynasty passer sooner than later.

The positive early returns on Luck’s health are also a boost for the top weapons in the Colts passing offense. T.Y. Hilton should see a similar upward trend in his trade value. If Hilton rises into the second round of redraft leagues (as he should), his dynasty value will increase accordingly. Hilton is under contract in Indianapolis for the next three seasons and is in line for strong production over the medium term. Training camp reports about the progress of Deon Cain also take on added significance due to Luck’s return. If the talented rookie can win a starting job (better than even chance), he could be one of the biggest value movers in all of dynasty in the month of August.

Changing Dynamics of Age Curves

One of the interesting storylines this summer is the increasingly ageless nature of the quarterback position. Aaron Rodgers recently explained how he wants to be like Tom Brady and play into his 40s. He is not alone. Ben Roethlisberger has made similar comments this offseason. Plus, early camp reports on Tom Brady and Drew Brees are that they are showing no signs of slowing down. There have been a number of factors in recent years which have allowed quarterbacks to play at an elite level for much longer than previous generations at the position. First, the rules have evolved to protect quarterbacks and lessen the number of big hits they take. Second, as noted in the linked article, quarterbacks have become much more rigorous in their diet and exercise regimens. We are seeing quarterbacks actually continue to improve and put up bigger fantasy numbers in their mid-30s than they did in their 20s.

The increased longevity has major impacts on dynasty valuation and strategy. It depresses quarterback values across the board in both standard and Superflex leagues. For example, Ben Roethlisberger is the current QB24 in dynasty ADP. He will likely play at a high level for at least the next three years (possibly longer) and there is no sense of urgency or panic if he is your QB2 in a Superflex league. Almost every dynasty team currently has multiple talented quarterbacks rostered so getting a decent trade return for a quarterback is nearly impossible. Late-round quarterback is becoming a more profitable strategy in all formats. We need to take this longevity into account in wide receiver valuations as well. For example, Michael Thomas (Drew Brees), Chris Hogan (Tom Brady), Keenan Allen (Philip Rivers), and others similarly attached to aging passers would have been discounted a bit more in past seasons.

Running Back

Rank
Running Back
2018 Value Future Value Total Value
1
10
42
52
3
8
42
50
2
10
40
50
4
Le'Veon Bell
10
28
38
5
10
28
38
6
8
28
36
7
6
26
32
8
7
25
32
9
7
25
32
10
4
20
24
11
4
18
22
12
6
16
22
13
3
17
20
14
2
16
18
15
2
15
17
16
2
14
16
17
4
12
16
18
1
14
15
19
3
12
15
20
4
11
15
21
Ronald Jones II
2
12
14
22
2
12
14
23
2
8
10
24
3
7
10
25
2
7
9
26
2
7
9
27
2
6
8
28
2
6
8
29
3
4
7
30
2
4
6
31
1
4
5
32
1
4
5
33
2
3
5
34
3
2
5
35
4
1
5
36
1
3
4
37
D'Onta Foreman
1
3
4
38
1
3
4
39
1
3
4
40
1
3
4
41
1
3
4
42
1
3
4
43
2
2
4
44
0
3
3
45
0
3
3
46
1
2
3
47
1
2
3
48
1
2
3
49
1
2
3
50
1
2
3
51
1
2
3
52
2
1
3
53
0
2
2
54
0
2
2
55
0
2
2
56
1
1
2
57
1
1
2
58
1
1
2
59
1
1
2
60
1
1
2

Should Le'Veon Bell be Discounted?

The Steelers were not able to come to terms with Bell on a contract extension. It now seems more likely than not that Bell will be in a different uniform in 2019. With uncertainty comes risk and Bell’s future is more uncertain than the other elite running backs. Pittsburgh is an ideal situation for a running back. The Steelers have one of the league’s best offensive lines and future Hall of Famers at quarterback and wide receiver to take the pressure off of the running game. It is hard to imagine Bell stepping into a better situation if he leaves as a free agent next spring.

Bell is still a massive difference-maker for 2018. Plus, whoever signs Bell for 2019 and beyond will have to make a major financial investment to do so. Thus, he is nearly assured of being an offensive centerpiece for as many years as he can stay healthy. All that being said, when also factoring in Bell’s heavy workload and injury history on top of the uncertainty about the future, maybe we see some of the class of 2017 running backs surpass Bell in dynasty value soon.

What to do with LeSean McCoy?

The allegations of McCoy’s involvement in setting up an armed robbery at a property he owned place a major cloud over his NFL future. The police statements that this was a “targeted robbery” and that the items stolen were the exact items McCoy had asked his ex-girlfriend to return to him are ominous. However, the justice system moves slowly and a financial settlement from McCoy could make witness cooperation an issue.

From a short-term perspective, McCoy is most likely going to stay on the field in 2018 while everything plays out. As such, he is an intriguing buy-low target for contenders in need of an immediate impact running back. It is worth offering a future 2nd-round pick and seeing if it is accepted or leads to a reasonable counter.

From a longer-term perspective, McCoy’s dynasty value takes a real hit. He was probably nearing the end anyway, but his status for 2019 and beyond is in serious doubt. Not only is there the cloud of a possible NFL suspension (or even a prison sentence), but it will also make it harder for NFL teams to justify signing him from a public relations standpoint when he loses a step. If you aren’t a contender, the best course of action is to wait until the season starts and see if McCoy’s value rebounds enough to where you can finagle a late-1st or the equivalent out of a contender.

The Volatile Value of the Rookies

Which of the seven rookie running backs taken between pick #27 (Rashaad Penny) and pick #71 (Royce Freeman) end up hitting will make or break a lot of dynasty teams. For every highly-drafted running back that exceeds expectations (Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara), there are more that don’t pan out (T.J. Yeldon and Ameer Abdullah). The 2018 class will be no different. Expect at least a couple of players from this cohort to quickly emerge as top-20 dynasty assets while at least a couple others never emerge as starters. The positive to rostering these backs is that there are always opportunities in the first year to get solid value if you decide you are no longer a believer in their talents and want to move them.

Wide Receiver

Rank
Wide Receiver
2018 Value Future Value Total Value
1
Odell Beckham Jr
8
40
48
2
8
40
48
3
9
27
36
4
7
27
34
5
7
25
32
6
7
24
30
7
7
23
30
8
5
25
30
9
7
17
24
10
4
18
22
11
5
15
20
12
3
17
20
13
3
16
19
14
5
13
18
15
3
15
18
16
3
15
18
17
3
14
17
18
4
12
16
19
3
12
15
20
2
12
14
21
5
7
12
22
1
11
12
23
3
8
11
24
3
7
10
25
2
8
10
26
1
9
10
27
1
9
10
28
3
6
9
29
1
8
9
30
2
6
8
31
2
6
8
32
2
6
8
33
2
6
8
34
1
7
8
35
1
7
8
36
5
2
7
37
3
4
7
38
3
4
7
39
2
5
7
40
2
5
7
41
1
6
7
42
1
6
7
43
1
6
7
44
1
6
7
45
2
4
6
46
2
4
6
47
1
5
6
48
1
5
6
49
Dante Pettis
1
5
6
50
1
5
6
51
1
5
6
52
2
3
5
53
2
3
5
54
2
3
5
55
2
3
5
56
1
4
5
57
1
4
5
58
1
4
5
59
Tre'Quan Smith
0
5
5
60
0
5
5
61
0
5
5
62
1
3
4
63
Cameron Meredith
1
3
4
64
0
4
4
65
0
4
4
66
1
2
3
67
1
2
3
68
1
2
3
69
1
2
3
70
1
2
3
71
1
2
3
72
0
3
3
73
J'Mon Moore
0
3
3
74
1
0
1
75
0
1
1
76
0
1
1

Mike Evans and the Death of Zero-RB

Perhaps no player personifies the quick decline in the popularity of the Zero-RB dynasty strategy than Mike Evans. In one year, he has gone from a consensus top-5 pick (and popular 1.01) in startups to a point where it is not uncommon to see him slide to the mid-2nd round in startup drafts. While his 2017 season was a slight disappointment, it wasn’t such a negative that his value should decline so significantly when he is still just 24-years old.

The most interesting strategical question in dynasty right now is whether the pendulum has now swung too far in favor of running backs. A market correction due to the overvaluing of wide receivers was in store, but we may be reaching a point where the market has over-corrected. It is undeniable that it is easier than ever to build a strong roster around talented young wide receivers (in a way that would have been inconceivable a couple years ago).

Young Wide Receivers Making Their Moves

For those following training camp reports in 2016, it was obvious early that Michael Thomas was exceeding expectations and an undervalued dynasty asset. Last year, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kenny Golladay showed signs of outplaying their draft position quickly as well. You don’t want to overreact to a single highlight play or one glowing camp report. However, when there is universal praise of a rookie receiver and it becomes obvious that an immediate impact is expected, you have to take note and adjust your valuations quickly. One early candidate to be a major mover in 2018 is Anthony Miller in Chicago. He has already locked down a starting job and the reports on his play have been universally glowing. In a wide receiver class in which so many of the top guys went within the same range of the draft, you want to adjust quickly and it is not premature to bump Miller up to WR2 in the rookie class if you believe in the early hype. Courtland Sutton is another rookie who is building early hype and increasing his trade value.

We are also seeing some second-year wide receivers making their moves as well. Corey Davis seems to be establishing himself as the clear go-to guy in Tennessee. John Ross has been an early star of Bengals camp and should see his dynasty stock rebound nicely. Kenny Golladay, Taywan Taylor, and Chris Godwin look poised to build on solid rookie campaigns and are locking down major roles in their offenses. Be aggressive in targeting some of these young guys in August before their dynasty values shoot up if they start hot in the regular season.

Tight End

Rank
Tight End
2018 Value Future Value Total Value
1
6
14
20
2
5
15
20
3
4
11
15
4
2
12
14
5
0
9
9
6
1
7
8
7
2
4
6
8
0
6
6
9
3
2
5
10
3
2
5
11
2
3
5
12
1
4
5
13
1
4
5
14
2
2
4
15
1
3
4
16
1
3
4
17
1
3
4
18
0
4
4
19
1
2
3
20
1
2
3
21
0
3
3
22
1
1
2
23
0
2
2
24
0
2
2
25
1
0
1
26
1
0
1
27
1
0
1
28
0
1
1
29
0
1
1
30
0
1
1
31
0
1
1

Hunter Henry is an Extreme Value

Low-ball offers in the immediate aftermath of Hunter Henry’s torn ACL were likely declined unceremoniously. However, as the season nears the inevitable decline in Henry’s trade value starts to kick into gear. Henry is sliding deep into the mid-rounds in July and August startups and we are starting to see some trades go through in which Henry is going for pennies on the dollar compared to his price a few months ago. We are talking about arguably the top young tight end in the game and a guy who will only be 24-years old next season. Anyone willing to take the short-term hit to trade for and stash Henry for a year will probably be feeling very good about themselves at this time next year.