Vegas Value Chart: Week 16

An early Vegas-based snapshot of the teams and positions to target in this week's DFS game slate.

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

Updated Thursday 12/21 @ 9 PM (EST)

TeamOpponentAwayGame TotalTeam TotalRunningPassTeam Defense
New England Buffalo -12 47 29.5 +++ +++ +
New Orleans Atlanta -5.5 52.5 29 +++ +++  
Carolina Tampa Bay -10 46.5 28.25 +++ +++  
Philadelphia Oakland -9 47.5 28.25 +++ +++  
Balitmore Indianapolis -13.5 41 27.25 +++ ++ +++
LA Rams Tennessee -6.5 47.5 27 ++ ++  
Kansas City Miami -10.5 43.5 27 +++ ++ +
Pittsburgh Houston -9 45 27 +++ ++ +
Dallas Seattle -5 47.5 26.25 ++ ++  
Minnesota Green Bay -9 41 25 + + ++
LA Chargers NY Jets -7 42.5 24.75 + + +
Detroit Cincinnati -4 44 24 + +  
Atlanta New Orleans 5.5 52.5 23.5      
Jacksonville San Francisco -4 42 23      
Chicago Cleveland -6.5 38 22.25     ++
Washington Denver -3.5 40.5 22      
Arizona NY Giants -3.5 40 21.75      
Seattle Dallas 5 47.5 21.25      
Tennessee LA Rams 6.5 47.5 20.5      
Cincinnati Detroit 4 44 20      
Oakland Philadelphia 9 47.5 19.25      
San Francisco Jacksonville 4 42 19      
Denver Washington 3.5 40.5 18.5      
Tampa Bay Carolina 10 46.5 18.25      
NY Giants Arizona 3.5 40 18.25      
Houston Pittsburgh 9 45 18      
NY Jets LA Chargers 7 42.5 17.75      
Buffalo New England 12 47 17.5      
Miami Kansas City 10.5 43.5 16.5      
Green Bay Minnesota 9 41 16      
Cleveland Chicago 6.5 38 15.75      
Indianapolis Baltimore 13.5 41 13.75      

SUMMARY

3-STARS

2-STARS

1-STAR