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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Away | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Pass | Team Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New England | Miami | -16.5 | 48 | 32.25 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
Atlanta | Tampa Bay | -9.5 | 48.5 | 29 | +++ | +++ | |
Philadelphia | Chicago | -13.5 | 44 | 28.75 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
LA Rams | New Orleans | -3 | 53.5 | 28.25 | +++ | +++ | |
Pittsburgh | Green Bay | -14 | 41.5 | 27.75 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
Kansas City | Buffalo | -10 | 45 | 27.5 | +++ | ++ | + |
Washington | NY Giants | -7.5 | 45 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
New Orleans | LA Rams | 3 | 53.5 | 25.25 | + | ++ | |
Seattle | San Francisco | -7 | 42.5 | 24.75 | + | + | + |
Oakland | Denver | -5 | 43.5 | 24.25 | + | + | |
LA Chargers | Dallas | 0 | 48 | 24 | + | + | |
Dallas | LA Chargers | 0 | 48 | 24 | + | + | |
Minnesota | Detroit | -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | |||
Tennessee | Indianapolis | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||
Cincinnati | Cleveland | -8.5 | 38 | 23.25 | ++ | ||
Baltimore | Houston | -7 | 38 | 22.5 | ++ | ||
Carolina | NY Jets | -4.5 | 40 | 22.25 | + | ||
Jacksonville | Arizona | -4.5 | 38 | 21.25 | + | ||
Detroit | Minnesota | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||
Indianapolis | Tennessee | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||
Tampa Bay | Atlanta | 9.5 | 48.5 | 19.5 | |||
Denver | Oakland | 5 | 43.5 | 19.25 | |||
NY Giants | Washington | 7.5 | 45 | 18.75 | |||
NY Jets | Carolina | 4.5 | 40 | 17.75 | |||
San Francisco | Seattle | 7 | 42.5 | 17.75 | |||
Buffalo | Kansas City | 10 | 45 | 17.5 | |||
Arizona | Jacksonville | 4.5 | 38 | 16.75 | |||
Miami | New England | 16.5 | 48 | 15.75 | |||
Houston | Baltimore | 7 | 38 | 15.5 | |||
Chicago | Philadelphia | 13.5 | 44 | 15.25 | |||
Cleveland | Cincinnati | 8.5 | 38 | 14.75 | |||
Green Bay | Pittsburgh | 14 | 41.5 | 13.75 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Jared Goff (Rams)
- Running Back: Dion Lewis/James White/Rex Burkhead (Patriots), Tevin Coleman (Falcons), LeGarrette Blount/Jay Ajayi (Eagles), Todd Gurley (Rams), LeVeon Bell (Steelers), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Brandin Cooks/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Sammy Watkins/Cooper Kupp/Tyler Higbee (Rams)
- Defense: Steelers
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Kirk Cousins (Redskins), Drew Brees (Saints)
- Running Back: Samaje Perine/Byron Marshall (Redskins)
- Receivers: Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Martavis Bryant (Steelers), Tyreek Hill/Demarcus Robinson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Josh Doctson/Jamison Crowder/Vernon Davis (Redskins), Michael Thomas/Willie Snead/Ted Ginn Jr/Coby Fleener (Saints)
- Defense: Bengals, Eagles, Ravens, Patriots
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Derek Carr (Raiders), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Thomas Rawls/J.D. McKissic (Seahawks), Marshawn Lynch (Raiders), Melvin Gordon (Chargers), Alfred Morris/Rod Smith (Cowboys)
- Receivers: Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett/Paul Richardson Jr/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Jared Cook (Raiders), Tyrell Williams/Travis Benjamin/Keenan Allen/Hunter Henry (Chargers), Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Jason Witten (Cowboys)
- Defense: Jaguars, Chiefs, Seahawks, Panthers