Vegas Value Chart: Week 12

An early Vegas-based snapshot of the teams and positions to target in this week's DFS game slate.

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

TeamOpponentAwayGame TotalTeam TotalRunningPassTeam Defense
New England Miami -16.5 48 32.25 +++ +++ ++
Atlanta Tampa Bay -9.5 48.5 29 +++ +++  
Philadelphia Chicago -13.5 44 28.75 +++ +++ ++
LA Rams New Orleans -3 53.5 28.25 +++ +++  
Pittsburgh Green Bay -14 41.5 27.75 +++ ++ +++
Kansas City Buffalo -10 45 27.5 +++ ++ +
Washington NY Giants -7.5 45 26.25 ++ ++  
New Orleans LA Rams 3 53.5 25.25 + ++  
Seattle San Francisco -7 42.5 24.75 + + +
Oakland Denver -5 43.5 24.25 + +  
LA Chargers Dallas 0 48 24 + +  
Dallas LA Chargers 0 48 24 + +  
Minnesota Detroit -3 44.5 23.75      
Tennessee Indianapolis -3 44 23.5      
Cincinnati Cleveland -8.5 38 23.25     ++
Baltimore Houston -7 38 22.5     ++
Carolina NY Jets -4.5 40 22.25     +
Jacksonville Arizona -4.5 38 21.25     +
Detroit Minnesota 3 44.5 20.75      
Indianapolis Tennessee 3 44 20.5      
Tampa Bay Atlanta 9.5 48.5 19.5      
Denver Oakland 5 43.5 19.25      
NY Giants Washington 7.5 45 18.75      
NY Jets Carolina 4.5 40 17.75      
San Francisco Seattle 7 42.5 17.75      
Buffalo Kansas City 10 45 17.5      
Arizona Jacksonville 4.5 38 16.75      
Miami New England 16.5 48 15.75      
Houston Baltimore 7 38 15.5      
Chicago Philadelphia 13.5 44 15.25      
Cleveland Cincinnati 8.5 38 14.75      
Green Bay Pittsburgh 14 41.5 13.75      

SUMMARY

3-STARS

2-STARS

1-STAR