Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Away | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Pass | Team Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LA Rams | Houston | -12 | 46 | 29 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
Detroit | Cleveland | -12.5 | 43.5 | 28 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
New England | Denver | -7.5 | 47 | 27.25 | ++ | ++ | + |
Pittsburgh | Indianapolis | -10 | 44 | 27 | +++ | ++ | ++ |
Atlanta | Dallas | -3 | 50.5 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
Carolina | Miami | -9 | 40 | 24.5 | ++ | + | +++ |
New Orleans | Buffalo | -2.5 | 46.5 | 24.5 | + | + | |
Dallas | Atlanta | 3 | 50.5 | 23.75 | |||
Seattle | Arizona | -6 | 41.5 | 23.75 | ++ | ||
Tennessee | Cincinnati | -5 | 40.5 | 22.75 | ++ | ||
Jacksonville | LA Chargers | -4 | 41 | 22.5 | + | ||
Buffalo | New Orleans | 2.5 | 46.5 | 22 | |||
NY Jets | Tampa Bay | -2.5 | 41.5 | 22 | |||
Minnesota | Washington | -1 | 42.5 | 21.75 | |||
Chicago | Green Bay | -5 | 38 | 21.5 | ++ | ||
NY Giants | San Francisco | -1 | 42 | 21.5 | |||
Washington | Minnesota | 1 | 42.5 | 20.75 | |||
San Francisco | NY Giants | 1 | 42 | 20.5 | |||
Denver | New England | 7.5 | 47 | 19.75 | |||
Tampa Bay | NY Jets | 2.5 | 41.5 | 19.5 | + | ||
LA Chargers | Jacksonville | 4 | 41 | 18.5 | |||
Arizona | Seattle | 6 | 41.5 | 17.75 | |||
Cincinnati | Tennessee | 5 | 40.5 | 17.75 | |||
Houston | LA Rams | 12 | 46 | 17 | |||
Indianapolis | Pittsburgh | 10 | 44 | 17 | |||
Green Bay | Chicago | 5 | 38 | 16.5 | |||
Cleveland | Detroit | 12.5 | 43.5 | 15.5 | |||
Miami | Carolina | 9 | 40 | 15.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Jared Goff (Rams), Matthew Stafford (Lions)
- Running Back: Todd Gurley (Rams), Ameer Abdullah (Lions), LeVeon Bell (Steelers)
- Receivers: Sammy Watkins/Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Tyler Higbee (Rams), Golden Tate/Marvin Jones/Eric Ebron (Lions),
- Defense: Panthers, Lions
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: Dion Lewis/James White (Patriots), DeVonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Jonathan Stewart/Christian McCaffrey (Panthers)
- Receivers: Brandin Cooks/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster/Martavis Bryant (Steelers), Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons)
- Defense: Bears, Steelers, Rams, Titans, Seahawks
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Cam Newton (Panthers), Drew Brees (Saints)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints)
- Receivers: Devin Funchess/Curtis Samuel/Russell Shepard (Panthers), Michael Thomas/Willie Snead/Ted Ginn Jr/Coby Fleener (Saints)
- Defense: Jaguars, Jets, Patriots