Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Away | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Pass | Team Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta | Miami | -11 | 47 | 29 | +++ | +++ | + |
New England | NY Jets | -9.5 | 47.5 | 28.5 | +++ | +++ | + |
Houston | Cleveland | -9.5 | 47 | 28.25 | +++ | +++ | + |
Washington | San Francisco | -9.5 | 46.5 | 28 | +++ | +++ | + |
New Orleans | Detroit | -5 | 50.5 | 27.75 | ++ | ++ | |
Denver | NY Giants | -12 | 40 | 26 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
Oakland | LA Chargers | -3 | 48.5 | 25.75 | + | + | |
Green Bay | Minnesota | -3.5 | 47 | 25.25 | + | + | |
Kansas City | Pittsburgh | -4.5 | 46 | 25.25 | + | + | |
Carolina | Philadelphia | -3.5 | 46 | 24.75 | + | + | |
Tampa Bay | Arizona | -2.5 | 44.5 | 23.5 | |||
Baltimore | Chicago | -6.5 | 40 | 23.25 | + | ++ | |
Detroit | New Orleans | 5 | 50.5 | 22.75 | |||
LA Chargers | Oakland | 3 | 48.5 | 22.75 | |||
Jacksonville | LA Rams | -2.5 | 43 | 22.75 | |||
Minnesota | Green Bay | 3.5 | 47 | 21.75 | |||
Philadelphia | Carolina | 3.5 | 46 | 21.25 | |||
Arizona | Tampa Bay | 2.5 | 44.5 | 21 | |||
Pittsburgh | Kansas City | 4.5 | 46 | 20.75 | |||
LA Rams | Jacksonville | 2.5 | 43 | 20.25 | |||
NY Jets | New England | 9.5 | 47.5 | 19 | |||
Cleveland | Houston | 9.5 | 47 | 18.75 | |||
San Francisco | Washington | 9.5 | 46.5 | 18.5 | |||
Miami | Atlanta | 11 | 47 | 18 | |||
Chicago | Baltimore | 6.5 | 40 | 16.75 | |||
NY Giants | Denver | 12 | 40 | 14 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Tom Brady (Patriots), Deshaun Watson (Texans), Kirk Cousins (Redskins)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Mike Gillislee (Patriots), Lamar Miller (Texans), Rob Kelley/Samaje Perine/Chris Thompson (Redskins), C.J. Anderson (Broncos)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Justin Hardy/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Brandin Cooks/Chris Hogan/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller/Ryan Griffin (Texans), Terrelle Pryor/Jamison Crowder/Jordan Reed (Redskins)
- Defense: Broncos
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Trevor Siemian (Broncos)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Willie Snead/Ted Ginn Jr/Coby Fleener (Saints), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (Broncos)
- Defense: Ravens
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Derek Carr (Raiders), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Cam Newton (Panthers)
- Running Back: Marshawn Lynch (Raiders), Ty Montgomery/Aaron Jones (Packers), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs), Jonathan Stewart/Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Javorius Allen/Alex Collins (Ravens)
- Receivers: Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Jared Cook (Raiders), Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams/Randall Cobb/Martellus Bennett (Packers), Tyreek Hill/Albert Wilson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Kelvin Benjamin/Devin Funchess/Ed Dickson (Panthers)
- Defense: Falcons, Redskins, Texans, Patriots