Cracking FanDuel: Week 6

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 6 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 6 Price
  • The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher value the better.
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches the price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • ETP = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
  • In the 2017 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of Ratio, H-Value, and Expected Team Points at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most of these players meet the criteria factors. These selections generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow represent other selections that I rate slightly worse than the top plays at their position.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • Nearly the entire field will be playing QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins in cash games. Unfortunately, I think the crowd is right. It doesn't help that these two have exploded the last two weeks and now draw the Browns at home. It's a perfect storm for yet another solid performance for the two players and both are still priced a smidge too low this week. In cash games, I am not going to overthink it and will be playing Watson at a minimum. Watson has such a great floor because of his running prowess and we know the Cleveland Browns will be allowing touchdowns to this offense. In GPPs, I think this is a situation I am avoiding. According to Steve Buzzard's newest ownership data, Watson (20%) and Hopkins (31%) will be massively owned in GPPs. I don't expect Watson to completely bomb in this game, but it's possible they use a bit more RB Lamar Miller who makes a very good multi-player fade since he should be approximately 8% owned.

  • With Stefon Diggs scratching and the GB/MIN game having some shootout potential, I am going to have massive exposure to WR Adam Thielen ($6,500). He is a non-CRITERIA player but is in a great situation (Vikings need to pass to match Green Bay's production and have little else). Similarly, I like RB Jerick McKinnon, who at just $5,600, could see a lot of looks in the passing game if the Vikings are playing from behind.

  • The New York Giants best pass catcher this week will likely be rookie TE Evan Engram. They won't have wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall, Sterling Shepard, or Dwayne Harris. Facing one of the best defenses at home, an erratic Eli Manning looks to have no chance. The Giants also can't run so it's a level of ineptitude that makes paying up for Denver's defense an easy decision this week. They should end the day with multiple sacks and multiple turnovers and have a real shot to shut out the Giants at home.

  • There are many running backs with extremely favorable matchups this week. Kareem Hunt and CJ Anderson top my list as CRITERIA players going against teams that are extremely vulnerable to the run and have suggested game scripts to compliment their style. I expect the field to have a lot of ownership to Leonard Fournette and Todd Gurley and although I do not hate those plays, I am not in love with them because of the low implied team totals for the Jaguars (22.5) and Rams (20.0). In my opinion, neither of these players offer a good enough discount for game scripts that could be unfavorable to a massive workload.

  • The tight end position is really tough this week. Because there are significant punts at wide receiver and running back I like this week, I will be using a lot of Rob Gronkowski. He remains the best tight end to score each week, and many of the other tight ends are touchdown dependent because of their limited snaps/targets. Punts I am warming up to at the position include Austin Sefarian-Jenkins ($5,600), Hunter Henry ($5,400), Kyle Rudolph ($5,300) and Ryan Griffin ($4,500). I will be fading Evan Engram ($5,300) as I don't think he is likely to score a touchdown.

  • GPP Play-Of-The-Week: Vegas did not have an over/under total on the LAC/OAK game until late this week, but it is now listed at 50.5 points (highest projected total of the week). QB Derek Carr is estimated at just 2% owned in GPPs. It's rare the favorite in the projected high game of the week would have such low ownership. Pairing him with WR Michael Crabtree (9%), Amari Cooper (7%), or TE Jared Cook (2%) all create very low-owned stacks that could deliver.

  • Kickers playing against San Francisco have great games. Adam Vinatieri, Phil Dawson, Greg Zuerlein, and Graham Gano have all topped 10+ fantasy points against the 49ers. Queue up PK Dustin Hopkins, WAS ($4,700) in all formats.

Cash+ Stacks I am targeting

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Cash+ - Projected Points = 128.6

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Cash+ (Studs at RB, and full punt at TE) - Projected Points = 127.1

Sample Roster 3 ($60K) - Cash (Fading Hopkins and naked Watson) - Projected Points = 126.3