Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Pass | Run | Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Green Bay | Indianapolis | -7 | 54 | 30.5 | +++ | +++ | |
Dallas | Cleveland | -7.5 | 48.5 | 28 | +++ | +++ | |
New Orleans | San Francisco | -4 | 52 | 28 | +++ | ++ | |
Atlanta | Tampa Bay | -3.5 | 51.5 | 27.5 | ++ | ++ | |
Kansas City | Jacksonville | -9 | 46 | 27.5 | ++ | +++ | + |
San Diego | Tennessee | -5.5 | 47 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
Seattle | Buffalo | -6.5 | 44 | 25.25 | + | + | + |
Carolina | Los Angeles | -3 | 45 | 24 | + | + | |
Tampa Bay | Atlanta | 3.5 | 51.5 | 24 | + | + | |
San Francisco | New Orleans | 4 | 52 | 24 | + | + | |
Miami | NY Jets | -3.5 | 44 | 23.75 | |||
Indianapolis | Green Bay | 7 | 54 | 23.5 | + | ||
Minnesota | Detroit | -6 | 41 | 23.5 | + | ++ | |
Baltimore | Pittsburgh | -2.5 | 43.5 | 23 | |||
NY Giants | Philadelphia | -2 | 43 | 22.5 | |||
Denver | Oakland | 0 | 43.5 | 21.75 | |||
Oakland | Denver | 0 | 43.5 | 21.75 | |||
Los Angeles | Carolina | 3 | 45 | 21 | |||
Tennessee | San Diego | 5.5 | 47 | 20.75 | |||
Pittsburgh | Baltimore | 2.5 | 43.5 | 20.5 | |||
Philadelphia | NY Giants | 2 | 43 | 20.5 | |||
Cleveland | Dallas | 7.5 | 48.5 | 20.5 | |||
NY Jets | Miami | 3.5 | 44 | 20.25 | |||
Buffalo | Seattle | 6.5 | 44 | 18.75 | |||
Jacksonville | Kansas City | 9 | 46 | 18.5 | |||
Detroit | Minnesota | 6 | 41 | 17.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Drew Brees (Saints)
- Running Back: Ty Montgomery/Don Jackson (Packers), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Charcandrick West (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/Davante Adams (Packers), Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Cole Beasley/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Brandin Cooks/Michael Thomas/Willie Snead/Coby Fleener (Saints)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Nick Foles (Chiefs), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
- Running Back: Tim Hightower/Mark Ingram (Saints), Devonta Freeman (Falcons), Melvin Gordon (Chargers)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Jacob Tamme (Falcons), Jeremy Maclin/Chris Conley/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Travis Benjamin/Tyrell Williams/Dontrelle Inman/Antonio Gates (Chargers)
- Defense: Vikings
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Cam Newton (Panthers), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Colin Kaepernick (49'ers), Andrew Luck (Colts)
- Running Back: Christine Michael (Seahawks), Jonathan Stewart (Panthers), Antone Smith/Peyton Barber (Buccaneers), DuJuan Harris/Mike Davis (49'ers), Jerick McKinnon (Vikings)
- Receivers: Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Kelvin Benjamin/Corey Brown/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Mike Evans/Adam Humphries/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), Torrey Smith/Jeremy Kerley/Quinton Patton (49'ers),
- Defense: Chiefs, Seahawks