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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay | New Orleans | -3 | 51 | 27 | ++ | ++ | |
Indianapolis | Houston | -5.5 | 47 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
New England | Baltimore | -7 | 45.5 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | + |
Atlanta | Los Angeles | -6 | 45 | 25.5 | + | ++ | + |
Dallas | NY Giants | -3.5 | 47.5 | 25.5 | + | + | |
Detroit | Chicago | -7.5 | 43.5 | 25.5 | + | ++ | ++ |
Seattle | Green Bay | -3 | 46.5 | 24.75 | + | + | |
Kansas City | Oakland | -4 | 45.5 | 24.75 | + | + | |
Carolina | San Diego | -1 | 48.5 | 24.75 | + | + | |
Cincinnati | Cleveland | -5.5 | 43 | 24.25 | + | + | + |
Pittsburgh | Buffalo | -1.5 | 47 | 24.25 | + | + | |
New Orleans | Tampa Bay | 3 | 51 | 24 | + | + | |
San Diego | Carolina | 1 | 48.5 | 23.75 | |||
San Francisco | NY Jets | -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | |||
Washington | Philadelphia | 0 | 46.5 | 23.25 | |||
Philadelphia | Washington | 0 | 46.5 | 23.25 | |||
Buffalo | Pittsburgh | 1.5 | 47 | 22.75 | |||
Tennessee | Denver | -1 | 43.5 | 22.25 | |||
Miami | Arizona | -1 | 43.5 | 22.25 | |||
NY Giants | Dallas | 3.5 | 47.5 | 22 | |||
Green Bay | Seattle | 3 | 46.5 | 21.75 | |||
Denver | Tennessee | 1 | 43.5 | 21.25 | |||
Arizona | Miami | 1 | 43.5 | 21.25 | |||
Minnesota | Jacksonville | -3.5 | 39 | 21.25 | +++ | ||
Oakland | Kansas City | 4 | 45.5 | 20.75 | |||
Houston | Indianapolis | 5.5 | 47 | 20.75 | |||
NY Jets | San Francisco | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||
Los Angeles | Atlanta | 6 | 45 | 19.5 | |||
Baltimore | New England | 7 | 45.5 | 19.25 | |||
Cleveland | Cincinnati | 5.5 | 43 | 18.75 | |||
Chicago | Detroit | 7.5 | 43.5 | 18 | |||
Jacksonville | Minnesota | 3.5 | 39 | 17.75 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: None
- Receivers: None
- Defense: Vikings
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Andrew Luck (Colts), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Doug Martin (Buccaneers), Frank Gore (Colts), LeGarrette Blount/James White/Dion Lewis (Patriots), Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Theo Riddick/Dwayne Washington/Zach Zenner (Lions)
- Receivers: Mike Evans/Russell Shepard/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief/Phillip Dorsett/Dwayne Allen/Jack Doyle (Colts), Julian Edelman/Malcolm Mitchell/Chris Hogan/Martellus Bennett (Patriots)
- Defense: Lions
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Cam Newton (Panthers), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Drew Brees (Saints)
- Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Thomas Rawls (Seahawks), Spencer Ware (Chiefs), Jonathan Stewart (Panthers), Jeremy Hill (Bengals), LeVeon Bell (Steelers), Mark Ingram/Tim Hightower (Saints)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Taylor Gabriel (Falcons), Dez Bryant/Cole Beasley/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Golden Tate/Marvin Jones/Anquan Boldin/Eric Ebron (Lions), Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Tyler Lockett/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Jeremy Maclin/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Kelvin Benjamin/Ted Ginn Jr/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Brandon LaFell/Tyler Boyd/Tyler Eifert (Bengals), Antonio Brown/Eli Rogers/Ladarius Green (Steelers), Michael Thomas/Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead/Coby Fleener (Saints)
- Defense: Patriots, Falcons, Bengals