Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Pass | Run | Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New England | San Francisco | -13 | 50.5 | 31.75 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
Pittsburgh | Cleveland | -9 | 49 | 29 | +++ | +++ | |
Carolina | New Orleans | -4 | 51.5 | 27.75 | ++ | ++ | |
Indianapolis | Tennessee | -3 | 52.5 | 27.75 | ++ | ++ | |
Detroit | Jacksonville | -6.5 | 47 | 26.75 | ++ | +++ | |
Washington | Green Bay | -3 | 50.5 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
Dallas | Baltimore | -7.5 | 45 | 26.25 | + | +++ | ++ |
NY Giants | Chicago | -6.5 | 45.5 | 26 | + | ++ | + |
Oakland | Houston | -5.5 | 46 | 25.75 | + | ++ | |
Kansas City | Tampa Bay | -7 | 44 | 25.5 | + | ++ | ++ |
Cincinnati | Buffalo | -4.5 | 46.5 | 25.5 | + | + | |
Seattle | Philadelphia | -6.5 | 44.5 | 25.5 | + | ++ | + |
Tennessee | Indianapolis | 3 | 52.5 | 24.75 | |||
New Orleans | Carolina | 4 | 51.5 | 23.75 | |||
Green Bay | Washington | 3 | 50.5 | 23.75 | |||
Buffalo | Cincinnati | 4.5 | 46.5 | 21 | |||
Los Angeles | Miami | -1 | 40.5 | 20.75 | + | ||
Arizona | Minnesota | 0 | 41 | 20.5 | |||
Minnesota | Arizona | 0 | 41 | 20.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Detroit | 6.5 | 47 | 20.25 | |||
Houston | Oakland | 5.5 | 46 | 20.25 | |||
Cleveland | Pittsburgh | 9 | 49 | 20 | |||
Miami | Los Angeles | 1 | 40.5 | 19.75 | |||
Chicago | NY Giants | 6.5 | 45.5 | 19.5 | |||
Philadelphia | Seattle | 6.5 | 44.5 | 19 | |||
Baltimore | Dallas | 7.5 | 45 | 18.75 | |||
San Francisco | New England | 13 | 50.5 | 18.75 | |||
Tampa Bay | Kansas City | 7 | 44 | 18.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), LeVeon Bell (Steelers), Theo Riddick/Dwayne Washington (Lions), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Martellus Bennett (Patriots), Antonio Brown/Eli Rogers/Ladarius Green (Steelers)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Cam Newton (Panthers), Andrew Luck (Colts), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Kirk Cousins (Redskins)
- Running Back: Jonathan Stewart (Panthers), Frank Gore (Colts), Rob Kelley (Redskins), Rashad Jennings/Paul Perkins (Giants), Latavius Murray (Raiders), Spencer Ware (Chiefs), Thomas Rawls/C.J. Prosise (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Kelvin Benjamin/Ted Ginn Jr/Greg Olsen (Panthers), T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief/Jack Doyle/Dwayne Allen (Colts), Marvin Jones/Golden Tate/Anquan Boldin/Eric Ebron (Lions), Pierre Garcon/Jamison Crowder/Jordan Reed (Redskins)
- Defense: Patriots, Cowboys, Chiefs
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Eli Manning (Giants), Derek Carr (Raiders), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard (Bengals)
- Receivers: Dez Bryant/Cole Beasley/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Odell Beckham Jr/Sterling Shepard/Will Tye (Giants), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Seth Roberts (Raiders), Jeremy Maclin/Chris Conley/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), A.J. Green/Brandon LaFell/Tyler Eifert (Bengals), Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks)
- Defense: Giants, Seahawks, Rams