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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | San Francisco | -13.5 | 48.5 | 31 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
New England | Seattle | -8 | 49 | 28.5 | +++ | +++ | |
Baltimore | Cleveland | -10 | 45 | 27.5 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
Pittsburgh | Dallas | -3 | 50 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
San Diego | Miami | -4 | 48.5 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
Green Bay | Tennessee | -3 | 49 | 26 | + | + | |
New Orleans | Denver | -2.5 | 49 | 25.75 | + | + | |
Atlanta | Philadelphia | 0 | 50 | 25 | + | + | |
Philadelphia | Atlanta | 0 | 50 | 25 | + | + | |
NY Giants | Cincinnati | -2 | 47 | 24.5 | + | + | |
Dallas | Pittsburgh | 3 | 50 | 23.5 | |||
Chicago | Tampa Bay | -1.5 | 45.5 | 23.5 | |||
Carolina | Kansas City | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||
Denver | New Orleans | 2.5 | 49 | 23.25 | |||
Tennessee | Green Bay | 3 | 49 | 23 | |||
Cincinnati | NY Giants | 2 | 47 | 22.5 | |||
Miami | San Diego | 4 | 48.5 | 22.25 | |||
Washington | Minnesota | -3 | 41.5 | 22.25 | + | ||
Tampa Bay | Chicago | 1.5 | 45.5 | 22 | |||
Houston | Jacksonville | -1.5 | 42.5 | 22 | |||
NY Jets | Los Angeles | -2 | 39.5 | 20.75 | ++ | ||
Seattle | New England | 8 | 49 | 20.5 | |||
Kansas City | Carolina | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Houston | 1.5 | 42.5 | 20.5 | |||
Minnesota | Washington | 3 | 41.5 | 19.25 | |||
Los Angeles | NY Jets | 2 | 39.5 | 18.75 | |||
San Francisco | Arizona | 13.5 | 48.5 | 17.5 | |||
Cleveland | Baltimore | 10 | 45 | 17.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: David Johnson (Cardinals), LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), Terrance West/Kenneth Dixon (Ravens)
- Receivers: Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/J.J. Nelson (Cardinals), Julian Edelman/Rob Gronkowski/Martellus Bennett (Patriots)
- Defense: Cardinals, Ravens
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Joe Flacco (Ravens), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
- Running Back: LeVeon Bell (Steelers), Melvin Gordon (Chargers)
- Receivers: Steve Smith/Mike Wallace/Dennis Pitta (Ravens), Antonio Brown/Eli Rogers/Sammie Coates Jr (Steelers), Travis Benjamin/Tyrell Williams/Dontrelle Inman/Antonio Gates (Chargers)
- Defense: Jets
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Drew Brees (Saints), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Eli Manning (Giants)
- Running Back: Ty Montgomery (Packers, WR Eligibility), Mark Ingram/Tim Hightower (Saints), Devonta Freeman (Falcons), Darren Sproles/Ryan Mathews (Eagles), Rashad Jennings (Giants)
- Receivers: Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/Davante Adams (Packers), Brandin Cooks/Michael Thomas/Willie Snead (Saints), Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Jacob Tamme (Falcons), Jordan Matthews/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Odell Beckham Jr/Sterling Shepard/Will Tye (Giants)
- Defense: Redskins