Cracking FanDuel: Week 9

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 9 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 9 Price
  • The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher value the better.
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • ExpPts = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
  • In the 2016 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of Ratio, H-Value, and Expect Team Points at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most meet the Criteria and have the best average criteria score. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow are additional players that I like this week.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • RB Charcandrick West is grossly mispriced at $5,600. He has a plus matchup at home against the Jaguars and will see an increase in workload with the injuries to Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles. He will be in 100% of my lineups this week.
  • Following the theme in this game, I expect the Chiefs defense to be able to harass the Jaguars in Arrowhead stadium. Bortles has been averaging over an interception a game for the season. The Chiefs have averaged 4 sacks a game over the last 4 weeks. Vegas is predicting a 7 point win for the Chiefs, so this could translate into the Jaguars passing a lot from behind. In one of the loudest stadiums, I like the Chiefs chances to get sacks, interceptions, and fumble recoveries.
  • Vegas has The IND/GB game at 54.5 points and with the Packers winning by 7 at home. The key news to watch for is WR Randall Cobb. He is a game-time decision for the 4pm NFL slate, but we should have more information Sunday morning. I think he will scratch (or be extremely limited). The Packers are already down multiple bodies at RB, so the offense is likely going to go through the air to WRs Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, and Ty Montgomery (who will also play snaps at RB). You are going to want a piece of the Packers no matter what. The easiest way to get exposure to the Packers is to just roster Aaron Rodgers, but I suspect many lineups will have multiple Packers on them. Because the game is expected to be a shootout, WR TY Hilton could see a lot of action with the Colts trying to play catchup and the Packers having one of the better run-stopping defenses. This is the first week (in a long time that Hilton does not enter the game with a questionable tag). PK Mason Crosby checks all the boxes for me (playing in a shootout, at home, where his team is the heavy favorite.
  • In a game where the Saints are expected to score 28.5 points, I like punting at WR with Michael Thomas at $5,800. He has participated in 393 snaps (in just 7 games) and has just 1 target less that their WR1 Brandin Cooks. Each week, Thomas is being asked to do a bit more. His breakout game is coming soon.
  • The Tight End situation is a bit odd with the Patriots on bye. Their 2 TE base set always puts both of those guys in play each week. By punting at TE with a player like Kyle Rudolph ($5,000), you can generally afford an all-star level roster. Rudolph's opponent (Detroit) is giving up 6 receptions, 65 yards and a TD per game to the TE position. It's the worst in the league at stopping the TE.

Sample Roster #1 (Heavy on GB) - Projected Points = 133.2

Sample Roster #2 - (IND throwing to catch up) - Projected Points = 134.2

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