Cracking FanDuel: Week 12

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 12 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 12 Price
  • The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher value the better.
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • ExpPts = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
  • In the 2016 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of Ratio, H-Value, and Expect Team Points at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most meet the Criteria and have the best average criteria score. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow are additional players that I like this week.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • No QB is hotter than Russell Wilson who has logged 24.78, 26.52, and 26.28 fantasy points the last three weeks. His multiple injuries seem to be behind him as he logged 8 rushing attempts last week. He draws a plus matchup against the Bucs and is grossly underpriced at $7,500. I think he is generally unfadable in cash games this week. I will have 100% exposure to him in that format. His elevated game also puts TE Jimmy Graham and WR Doug Baldwin solidly into play. Both are priced below recent output levels.
  • I am going to keep going back to the well that is the SF run defense. Over the last 4 weeks they have given up 36.2 fantasy points to RBs. Just pencil in Jay Ajayi ($8,400) to continue the trend this week. Adding to the 49ers woes this week is the fact they will be forced to travel to the East Coast game for a 1pm ET start.
  • At the other RB spot, a strong case can be made to just pay up and lock into RB David Johnson, ARI. He should be actively involved regardless of game script. I like the play, but think I will be taking a shot with RB Thomas Rawls ($7,000) who should have an elevated role due to the injury of CJ Prosise. My Game Predictor simulations predict more points for the Seahawks so I don't worry about rostering both Wilson and Rawls. Playing them both actually minimizes their combined downside considerably and locks a lot of value up at a great floor.
  • Watch the news carefully regarding the New England Patriots. TE Rob Gronkowski made the short flight, but could still scratch on Sunday. If he scratches, my top WR play will be Julian Edelman. If Gronkowski plays, that does shuffle the targets considerably for the Patriots. I will have exposure to Edelman, but he will not be in all of my lineups.
  • As bad as the 49ers are against stopping the run, they are equally awful against the pass. They are yielding 41.4 FPs to WRs over the last 4 weeks and are susceptible to physical receivers. This sets up well for Devante Parker ($6,300) to have a break-through game. I have him conservatively projected at 11.6 FPs, but I am likely going to increase that number on Sunday.
  • The Green Packers defense now features a bunch of awful players after injuries have taken out nearly all of their starters. If you are playing the MNF slate, pencil in WR Jordan Matthews ($5,600). He is the best WR value on the board for the extended slate. Over the last 4 weeks, the Packers are yielding 39.4 FPs to WRs.
  • In rosters where you choose not to play David Johnson, I think you should strongly consider WR Larry Fitzgerald ($7,200). Atlanta is giving up 40.8 FP to WRs over the last 4 weeks as teams attempt to match the Falcons dynamic offensive output.
  • Fool's Gold: Matt Barkley is AWFUL. Even though it seems like there should be value on the Bears at WR/TE to take advantage of Tennessee's porous pass defense, that conversation ends when it requires an accurate pass from Matt Barkley.
  • GPP thought: At least one of WR Tyler Boyd ($5,600) and/or Brandon LaFell ($5,100) should reach 2-3X value this week. To maximize studs elsewhere, these guys make great punt plays in GPPs. I will be avoiding both in my cash lineups though.
  • At kicker, I am warming up to PK Dan Carpenter, BUF ($4,500). The Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed 8+ FPs to kickers in every one of their games. And in 6 of their 10 contests, the PK managed 10+ FPs.
  • It's hard to even talk about the Browns without laughing. Last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers scored 22 FP against them while managing 8 sacks, 1 FR, 1 int, and def TD. The Baltimore Ravens scored 14 points with 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, and a fumble recovery. At $4,800, the Giants are the no-brainer play on defense this week.

Sample Roster #1 (Gronkowski scratches) - Projected Points = 134.0

Sample Roster #2 (Gronkowski plays)- Projected Points = 132.4

Sample Roster #3 (includes MNF) - Projected Points = 132.8

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