DFS Roundtable: Week 12 - Turkey Day Edition

Photo: Steve Roberts, USA Today Sports

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Turkey Time
• Holiday DFS
• Cincinnati Shifting (coming later this week)
• Weather Watching (coming later this week)

The staffers we talked to this week are Chris Feery, Andrew Garda, Will Grant, John Mamula, Alex Miglio, Chad Parsons, and BJ VanderWoude. And we had a cameo appearance from Jeff Pasquino!

Turkey Time

Hester: Give us your thoughts on strategy for the three Thanksgiving Day games.

Parsons: With small slates, the "room for error" factor on game scripts, stacks, etc. shrinks considerably. Considering the lack of options and combinations, I prefer GPP action for Thanksgiving as the odds are lower of cashing already. Pick a game script for a team or game and stack multiple options as the core of the rosters aligning with the outcome.

For this year's Turkey Day slate, the chalk is the high Vegas total for the featured night game of Pittsburgh at Indianapolis, specifically on the Steelers side with Andrew Luck looking doubtful with a concussion to make the game. While I would certainly have some action on lineups from each of the first two games, a stack from Washington or Detroit (strong passing games of the non-Pittsburgh-Indianapolis variety) are less likely to populate stock lineups. After a tough matchup for Dallas' run game in Week 11 with Baltimore, I like using Ezekiel Elliott paired with Washington pass game options like Kirk Cousins and DeSean Jackson. Dallas has allowed quality games to Antonio Brown and Steve Smith in recent weeks as downfield options. Jackson had a somewhat of a warm-up game (six targets, found the end zone) in Week 11 as he returned from a shoulder injury and sports his lowest price tag of the season.

Mamula: I typically avoid playing cash games on small slates. The overlap of ownership percentage with the key players is usually very high. Often, cash lineups are decided by only a couple of roster spots. This takes the skill out of DFS and creates more of a luck factor. For the Thanksgiving Day games, I recommend playing 100% GPP and scaling back your bankroll allotment. With only three games, you can't totally avoid the Steelers-Colts game. Both of these defenses have struggled this season, and this is likely to be the highest scoring game on the day.

Rather than build a Steelers-Colts stack with Ben Roethlisberger, Brown, LeVeon Bell, T.Y. Hilton, or Donte Moncrief, try to differentiate your lineup by adding one or two under the radar plays to the stack. Consider Eli Rogers, Ladarius Green, Jack Doyle, or Phillip Dorsett. You will leapfrog a significant percentage of the GPP field if any of these players scores a touchdown. I also recommend adding one or two players from the earlier games that have either multi-touchdown upside or the ability to break off a long touchdown. Consider adding Elliott, Jordan Reed, Jackson or Stefon Diggs to your Steelers-Colts stack. The key is trying to build a unique lineup without removing the top overall plays on the slate.

Garda: I'm with Chad and John; the smaller the slate, the less inclined I am for a cash game. For GPPs, you're looking for that one or two player combo which is going to differentiate you from anyone else. As John pointed out, everyone has a strong stack with Bell, Elliott or Dez Bryant.

Differentiate yourself with some players whose matchups are good but who are less likely to be owned - Frank Gore or Robert Kelley. Mind you, there is still a need for some of the studs in your lineup. That comes with the territory of these small slates. Unless you're trying to play a real longshot, you can't go with a complete contrarian lineup, and you certainly shouldn't go heavy with anything like that because chances are you're just setting your bankroll on fire.

And as said above I would throttle back my bankroll this week, since we have a smaller slate on Thursday, as well as a smaller one on Sunday as well.

Pasquino: I totally agree that this is a GPP week far more than a cash week; unless there are clear cash plays that scream "put me in", but I think this is a week to concentrate on stacking two or three teams and permutating those together.

Now, as a heads up for the weekend, the smaller slate will lead towards a more reasonable size since all 32 teams are back in action, so the Sunday slate is still in the 12-game range.

Feery: I’m with the majority on how to approach this small slate. When you’re dealing with such a small pool of available players, there’s going to be a ton of overlap. Combine that with the fact that a single miss will likely tank your lineup, and cash games are not particularly appealing for a three-game slate. My play will be geared towards GPPs entirely, but I’ll also scale back my amount in play in comparison to a larger slate.

As for a lineup building approach for a short slate, I view it as especially imperative to find a pair of contrarian selections that have a reasonable chance of finding the end zone. That being said, you don’t want to look too far outside the box either. At running back, Bell and Elliott are the clear-cut chalk, and you’ll likely be dead in the water if you fade one or both and they happen to go off. I’ll be going with the herd at running back, and look to find some uniqueness at wide receiver or tight end.

We can safely assume that the top passing game targets of all of the teams in play will have their fair share of supporters, so I’ll dig into the second and third options to see if I can find some appealing targets. A few of the intriguing options that are sticking out on that end are Jamison Crowder, Cole Beasley, and Anquan Boldin. All three players are seeing their fair share of targets, but they won’t be the first options from their respective teams that pop to mind for most DFS players. Securing your stud of choice at wide receiver in the form of Brown or Bryant and adding in a pair of these contrarian options could really help set your lineup apart from the pack if everything breaks just right.

Grant: To me, this week is a "lottery ticket" week, meaning I'm going to toss out a handfull of Thanksgiving GPPs, with minimal entry fees and fully expect that if I lose them all, it's no big deal. Obviously, I want to try to win, but given the short slate and heavy competition, you really have to come to grips that it's hard to win a GPP without some luck.

I'm absolutely off of Indianapolis passing game this week now that it looks like Luck will be out. I remember a couple years ago when Matt Flynn was named the starter for Green Bay, and it seemed like the smart play to put him in for minimum pricing and build GPP lineups around him. He flamed out completely and it was a very rough day (see lottery ticket comment above). I might toss in Hilton here or there just in case he goes off, but I won't be expecting much from it. Scott Tolzein hasn't had much time to prepare, and I think the playbook is going to be pretty basic. Gore might be the smart play from the Colts.

Dallas and Washington will probably be a shootout, and Vegas seems to agree with the highest implied point total of the week at 51. These teams absolutely hate each other, and I think it's going to be a lot closer than the seven-point line indicates. Guys on both sides of this game should make up at least a portion of your lineup.

For Detroit and Minnesota, this is where you're going to win your GPP, just cash or flat out lose. There won't be a lot of scoring on either side of the ball, and if you can pick the player that scores correctly, you'll probably do very well. Kyle Rudolph is a player I'm going to look at, just because Detroit doesn't defend tight ends very well, and the Vikings look to him a lot.

One sneaky play is Minnesota defense. They have six total return touchdowns this season and could be the team to have this week against the Lions.

Miglio: Thanksgiving slates are craps shoots, as are most short slates. The aforementioned chalkiness of the Steelers-Colts tilt could provide an opportunity for contrarian success elsewhere if we see huge ownership percentages out of that matchup, but there are only two other games from which to choose players. I'll throw some darts, but short slates don't get a lot of my action.

That said, my two favorite cash plays for this week outside the chalky matchup are Elliott and the Minnesota defense, which has gotten its groove back. Dallas is favored by a touchdown over Washington, and that means a big day for the eventual Rookie of the Year. As for quality GPP darts, look back to Indianapolis and Pittsburgh for guys like Rogers or Dorsett to fill out your lineups with some upside.

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Holiday DFS

Hester: Using the holidays listed below and their corresponding prices, create the best DFS-style "roster" of holidays using the following criteria.

• Roster Size: 6
• Salary Cap: $30,000

Hester: I'm actually going to participate in this topic because it sounds like fun (of course it does to me, I created it). I'll show my final roster and then the thoughts I had on how I put it together:

The best value on the board is Thanksgiving. Pricing a glorious day centered around family, football, and food that also provides most of America a four-day weekend $600 below New Year's Eve and Halloween is akin to David Johnson being priced below DeMarco Murray on the major DFS sites last week. Sure, Murray is a talented workhorse, but Johnson is the most talented workhorse. All due respect to champagne and costumes, food, football, and vacation days win the day.

As a side note, yes, "fringe benefits" such as days off work count towards the evaluation of these holidays. Not counting them would be like rostering Theo Riddick but not being given credit for his receiving stats just because he's a running back. The full package counts. Days off, weather, associated traditions (even if they're just personal to your own family) all count towards your decision-making process.

I went with Christmas because it's the obvious traditional holiday. Decorating the tree, cookies, parties, Christmas movies, and – again – days off of work all contribute towards the decision. If Christmas were a DFS asset, it would be a player priced $9,000 or higher at FanDuel. Sure, you might not all the way to the 2x or 3x value marker, but the raw points will be there to anchor the lineup.

Memorial Day and Labor Day are staples for me. Growing up in the north, Memorial Day signaled the beginning of summer. Pools opened, barbecues happened, and we got a day off school. Now living in Florida, Labor Day is another season-signaler – the end of the oppressively hot summer months. It's also the beginning of football season. And my wife's birthday always falls near it, so the family takes a vacation that weekend, which always brings fond memories.

Father's Day is a quality value play. I'm a father now, and even before I was, I enjoyed watching the final round of the U.S. Open on Father's Day with my dad every year. Veteran's Day was chosen despite others fitting under the cap too. But Veteran's Day is very special as my grandfather was a veteran, and so is my father-in-law. Hats off to the vets.

Parsons: The traditional holidays are definitely my least favorite. I do not even celebrate my own birthday. That makes using the entire cap a challenge as a result.

My view on Memorial Day and Veteran's Day is so much more meaningful now that I am out of active duty military service after my 12 active years. My wife loves the fireworks on 4th of July, so it was an easy choice for my lineup. My parents live 3,000 miles away, so a Mother's Day and Father's Day call is an annual tradition. Halloween takes up most of the remaining cap without completely caving on commercialism.

Super Bowl Sunday was not a consideration for me as a) I rarely watch a football game live with avenues to watch games in an hour or less these days; b) the Super Bowl is my least favorite game of the season; I would rather watch Cleveland-Tennessee midseason; and c) when I watch a game, I like to sit and consume with strong attention for that 30-60 minutes. Super Bowl gatherings are too casual for my taste.

Moderator's note: Cleveland-Tennessee? Whew boy, Chad is a glutton for punishment!

Miglio: I went with some studs and duds here.

With a Mother's Day exception – my wife deserves this, trust me – I tend to go for holidays that require the least amount of work. Now, you might say that I picked some labor intensive holidays, but everything is relative. Halloween costumes are as easy as you need them to be. Thanksgiving is for watching football while letting everyone else cook. Christmas is only stressful before the holiday itself, and that's if you do it wrong. Who does anything on President's Day?

Think about it: Labor Day, Memorial Day, and 4th of July are all for barbecuing. Don't get me wrong – there's absolutely nothing wrong with cookouts, and I love just about any holiday. But aren't you just wiped out after hosting a party for 30 or walking three miles to the nearest fireworks display?

Incidentally, I mainly put President's Day in my lineup because it's the last real holiday we get for a while in the beginning of the year. After that, it's a barren wasteland until Memorial Day unless you take a sick day on St. Patrick's Day or head to New Orleans for Mardi Gras.

On a more serious note, though, I grew up in the church and am still active in it today, albeit in a far different setting. Christmas has always been important to me, and not because of the gifts. I love giving things to people, but Christmas has always been a special time for me and my huge extended family. It's nice to know we'll all get together at least once on Noche Buena.

On that note, Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

Garda: My roster is as follows:

I went heavy on the "Big Holidays" because I like the pomp and circumstance. In which case you may ask why I chose New Year's Day, not Eve. Simple - I have kids, and we don't do anything on New Year's Eve but hang out and play video or board games. Which, while lovely, isn't as unique as it seems.

But New Year's Day has some of the best college football around, and I spent a large portion of my 20s and onward being very invested in the Rose Bowl and the game on New Years. So to me, that always makes that day work better for me.

Halloween is less fun now that the kids are older, though my youngest is still young enough to get wrapped up in it (he and his friends had a theme this year: Little Red Riding Hood - he was the Grandma). I suspect in a few years it will fall off this list, especially since my house doesn't get many Trick or Treaters anymore.

I like Veteran's Day because it's one of those small forgotten holidays we sort of ignore, and I like the idea of a day to say thank you to those who has served. I used to call my Grandfather on every Veteran's Day, so that will always hold a special place in my heart.

Moderator's Note: Andrew only picked five holidays, which should disqualify him. But since this isn't measurable in any way, we'll leave him in!

Pasquino: With all due respect to those that observe these holidays for a particular purpose or reason, I went in my own direction (as I so often do).

This was a little more challenging than I thought, but I like the concept. For me, it is all about sports as my kids are nearly raised and I have the time to enjoy the games – and DFS, of course. So while I enter into my “empty nest” phase of my life, I get to enjoy more time for myself and less family oriented traditional choices. So, my criteria for choosing my lineup surrounded (A) a strong lineup of sports to watch and play DFS against, (B) an excuse to have a party and/or big food celebration, and (C) the excuse to either go to Las Vegas, have a few drinks or both. With that solid checklist, I went to work:

Thanksgiving Day is my favorite holiday, and it gets all three checkmarks with three NFL games, food, DFS, and some hockey and NBA as well. It’s also very close to my birthday (11/21), so it is usually my top week of the year with the long weekend.

Christmas Day (and the Hannukah season, if you will) hits the checklist well. Food? Check. Football? Check. NBA? Check. Gifts? You bet. Plus, if we are expanding beyond just “Christmas Day” with Hannukah, we also get extra days. Sign me up. It's a solid number two choice.

With New Year’s Eve, yes, I am taking the top-three most expensive choices for my roster, but there’s a reason to love New Year’s Eve. Parties, food and noisemakers, and everyone enjoying the night, and of course there’s college bowl games as well (including the College Football Playoff now). This is usually a weekend I try and get away after a long NFL season as a Footballguy, so I have some personal attachment to it. It doesn’t hurt that three major sports are all in play as well.

I’ve spent a lot on three holidays ($21,600 – over 70% of my cap), so I need to dig a little deeper for three value picks.

How can you go wrong with Super Bowl Sunday? Football, halftime shows, food, a great game (in recent years), and virtually a national holiday. Sure, there is just one game, but if you aren’t in some kind of Super Bowl Pool, well, you aren’t trying hard enough. Plus (again), NBA and NHL games are usually in play on a reduced slate and finish before the big game. It's a great day to celebrate the end of the football season and wrap up the year.

St. Patrick’s Day provides an excuse to party as everyone wears green and thinks that they are Irish. Plus this is usually right around the start of March Madness (Moderator's Note: finally, Pasquino gets to the second-best sport). There isn't much love for DFS here (aside from some NBA and NHL), but here is another holiday that checks all the boxes (aside from Irish food, I’ll pass on that). It's another strong value option.

This leaves me with $2,700 left to spend and one more holiday to pick. I am down to four options – Veteran’s Day, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, President’s Day, and Columbus Day. While the last one is a great excuse to watch Gremlins, Goonies and Young Frankenstein, I am actually going with some of the process of elimination here and zeroing in on the two fall holidays.

While both the NBA and NHL have slates for Martin Luther King Jr. and President’s Day, I can’t really find a reason to hang my hat on either holiday. It just seems like a day off without a planned holiday activity to me. No disrespect to others that celebrate either one, I just do not have any personal attachment.

That leaves either Veteran’s Day or Columbus Day. I could make a case for either one and be happy with it. Veteran’s Day is just days before my birthday, but the weather is colder, and I am not a fan of winter. While all three major winter sports are in session in November, I think that the Columbus Day choice is the better option as it marks the week (and sometimes the day) when both the NBA and the NHL are starting. Plus, we still have playoff baseball in action, and October is awesome as the month with all four sports at once.

So there you have it – my DFS holiday roster. I’ll take my chances with this lineup any year!

VanderWoude: If only this were a real, measurable contest, I think we'd all be shipping something this week! Here's my DFS Holiday roster.

Christmas/Hannukah is the David Johnson of all Holidays, this one is a no-brainer. Who doesn't like giving and receiving presents? And if you are like me, you still get a mix of candy, batteries, fruit and nerf hoops in your stocking. It comes at the perfect time of year when seasonal depression is real and your car takes too long to warm up (at least in the northeast). My memories of Christmas morning growing up are ones that will last a lifetime.

The most DFS of all Holidays, Super Bowl Sunday is the one time I can watch a football game and not have to worry about my fantasy teams – well, at least not my season long fantasy teams. I enjoy it because there is such an eclectic group of people who watch the Super Bowl, from all walks of life, and many who are not traditional sports fans. And let us not forget the commercials, which serve as the great unifier of all Super Bowl watchers.

New Years Day is one of the most underrated holidays. It represents hope for the upcoming year, a way to leave everything that happened in the past 365 days behind. I think of it as a battery recharger, and although Bowl Games do not have the same type of meaning, a day that features football as the main course can never be anything but awesome.

The LeVeon Bell to Christmas' David Johnson, Thanksgiving has it all: football, basketball, food, dessert, family, and the special liquor with all the dust on the bottle. My mother famously prepares a feast for 50 men, despite there being only 12 of us at the table, which brings me to the best part of Thanksgiving – LEFTOVERS!

I've always loved Easter as a Holiday; my family has a fierce easter egg hunt, usually won by my over-aggressive sister who has delivered J.J. Watt-esque tackles to newcomers who don't know better than to look under the lamp shade. Easter is the holiday that you love as a kid, grow out of as a young adult, and then love it even more when you have kids, nieces, nephews etc. I would call it a punt play, but that would not be giving PEEPS their due.

My college-self picked this one, and what a fine pick it is indeed. St. Patrick's Day is the rare holiday where food is not your first and last choice of the day. I have very good memories of soda bread, corned beef and cabbage, and Irish Car Bombs. Those were the good ole days, and although I do not celebrate like I used to, watching others have their St. Patrick's Day fun is good enough for me these days.

Happy Holidays!

Mamula: No need for a holiday lineup optimizer with this slate! Just like building a NFL cash lineup, let's start it off with the chalk.

'Tis the season to be jolly! I did not truly appreciate the Christmas season until I had a child. This will be my daughter's second Christmas, and I can not wait to see the joy on her face while she is opening her presents! Christmas/Hannukah is more than just a day; it is a season. Most of us have some time off to spend with family and friends. Plus, on Christmas Day this year, we have my two favorite sports, NFL and NBA!

Growing up, the 4th of July was always my favorite holiday. This was probably because my birthday is on July 5th. I always thought that everyone shot off fireworks cause it was my birthday! We can only dream. 4th of July is now about spending time with family and friends. It is usually a great day to spend at the pool and cooking out.

Since I am definitely rostering Christmas and 4th of July, I need to look for some holiday value. Super Bowl Sunday stands out as my first value pick. It is simply underpriced at $3,000. Super Bowl Sunday is all about the four F's: family, friends, food, and football! Plus, all of the commercials are a great bonus.

We have another value pick with Mother's Day, which is underpriced at $3,000. Who set this pricing? It seems definitely too soft! In all seriousness, Mother's Day is a time when we get to give back to our moms and/or wives. We usually take my Mom out to dinner to show our appreciation for everything that she has provided. Now with having a young daughter, it makes this holiday even more special.

You can't roster Mother's Day and leave out Father's Day, right? Again, this day is all about spending time with family. We typically spend this day either cooking out or at the pool. And don't forget to throw in some U.S. Open Golf or MLB DFS rosters!

OK, I am left with $6,900. Let's see what options we have available to round out our holiday roster. Thanksgiving is a perfect fit! Thanksgiving is all too often thought of as just food, family, and football. While I appreciate all of these things, Thanksgiving is a time to look back and truly give thanks for what we have. Whether it is our family, freedom or anything else of significance, this is the time when we should give thanks, for there are those that are not as fortunate.

Feery: While I've used a stars and scrubs approach in terms of salary cap allotment, all six of these choices are winners in my book. Family is the backbone of everything in my eyes, and all six of these days help to reinforce that concept.

Christmas/Hannukah is my favorite time of the year by far, so you can be certain that my roster will include the big day itself. There’s just something about the holiday spirit that’s infectious, and even those that don’t completely buy-in can get caught up in the magic of the season. The gifts are ancillary in my mind, but I do love spreading some joy by nailing something on another’s wishlist. That was a lot easier when my kids were smaller, but I’ve still become known for nailing it pretty well.

Thanksgiving may be my favorite individual day of the year, and it hits all the right notes when it comes to a holiday. We have family, friends, plenty of food, conversation, and some football for good measure. I’ve handled the Thanksgiving cooking duties for the last several years, and I genuinely look forward to putting together a great meal for everyone to enjoy. In addition to the traditional feast, I always like to whip up a few surprise dishes for the first course. I’m usually pretty tired and couch bound by the time the final guests leave, and that’s a perfect time to unwind with a little more football or a solid flick.

It's always fun to get together with friends to ring in the New Year, but New Year’s Day is typically a pretty relaxing day around my house. It’s usually the last chance for everyone to relax a little bit before getting back to the grind of work or school, and the day sets up really well for some quality couch time, good eats, and generally chilling with those closest to you.

Easter has lost a little of its luster as my kids have grown, but it still deserves a spot on my roster. Back in the day, I’d be looking forward to taking a few extra days off work to spend with the kids for spring break, but that’s evolved as they’ve gotten older. We may still put together a special day or two if everyone’s schedules align, but we’ll definitely take the time to get together with the family no matter what.

Mother’s Day and Father’s Day go hand in hand on the family front, and it’s another fantastic opportunity to spend some extra time with the kids and bring everyone closer together. As I mentioned earlier, family is the backbone of everything in my eyes, and that starts at the top by being the best parent you possibly can be. There are no specific traditions that we hold in place for these days, and it can be as simple as heading to the beach, taking in a movie or going out to grab a bite to eat, but the bottom line is that we take a day to spend a little extra time with each other. Kids enjoy the concept of giving back as well, and it’s always nice to feel a little special and know that they appreciate all that you’ve done for them.

Grant: Go with the chalk play right to anchor the lineup.

This year has been crazy with all of the election stuff. Tensions run high in many families, and people are still very sensitive to the outcome of what happened. Christmas is that time of year when people all smile a little more, they celebrate with family, and if only for one day, they put aside all of their petty stuff and just enjoy being with each other. It's really a wonderful time of year. Christmas Eve is big at our house as well, and we invite friends and family over for a big Christmas Eve Feast. It's a long day of cooking and preparing, but when everyone sits down to dinner, I literally would not care if the rest of the world disappeared. It's just a great time for everyone.

I chose Memorial and Veteran's Day because even though I'm not a veteran, my father is, and I have several friends who have served in active combat. Their bravery can not be thanked enough, and their sacrifices can't be honored enough. These days are the "value plays" of the lineup where no matter what the salary, they have already delivered 4x value.

Thanksgiving is food, family, friends, and football. What more can you ask for? Recency Bias? Probably. But my love of football includes Thanksgiving Day, growing up in Detroit and being a Cowboys fan. Seeing the Lions and the Cowboys play every year was just icing on the cake. The chance to make some DFS cash now doesn't hurt either. This is the high-floor option of the lineup.

I love Labor Day for what it represents – the beginning of fall. Not only does it signal the start of the football regular season, it also means kids go back to school, and the hot summer days are just about over. In just a few months, the heavy hitters from above will come into play, and here in the Midwest, the cooler days mean the trees will change into those great fall colors. Taking a Monday off work? Even better. Another floor, high-ceiling option.

Super Bowl Sunday represents the "swing for the fence" roster spot. Hopefully, the culmination of a great football season and the two best teams face off in a winner-take-all event. If you're reading this article and you don't like the Super Bowl, it's probably because either New England is there again or your hated rival (like Washington for me) is. #NarrativeStreet at a season high for this game with every possible football story on everyone's mind.

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Cincinnati Shifting

Stay tuned for the conversation on this topic later this week.

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Weather Watching

Stay tuned for the conversation on this topic later this week.

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Chris Feery

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