How To Attack Smaller PPR Leagues

Photo: Tim Heitman, USA Today Sports

Small leagues are a lot of fun.  There is something about the eight or ten team leagues that make them enjoyable.  The size makes them much different than the standard twelve teamers.  So does scoring one point per reception (PPR).  As with any other unique league, it is a losing proposition to use standard draft strategies.  An entirely different strategy is required to make the most of the draft.  This article will specifically look at ten team leagues using PPR scoring.  We will examine strategies specially designed for the smaller leagues rewarding a point per reception in order to best attack the draft and get the most from the roster.  This will help you form a new strategy for your small-sized league.  

Down to basics, what are the differences I should know about the small leagues? 

a.  Since there are no scarcity issues, everything is about the studs.   The whole draft is focused on how to draft enough elite players to win.  It is only through the studs that an owner can gain an edge over his leaguemates.  The top two or three players at each position outscore the rest by tremendous amounts each and every year. 

b.  Knowing how to best attack the quarterback position is one of the biggest keys to small leagues?  Is it necessary to select a passer early in the draft like in the bigger leagues? 

c.  The running back position is one where the drop-off in expected production comes earlier in 2016 than in years gone by.  With the emphasis on receivers, how can I take advantage of this phenomena?

d.  With only fifty wide receivers rostered, on average, how do we gain an edge? 

e.  Is there is a valid reason to take a kicker or team defense early? 

How do I best address these questions above?

a.  Since we need studs in order to gain advantages over the other teams in the league, how best do I go about drafting these players?  The top players at every position give their owners a huge edge each week.  The best way to get these studs is to be proactive in your draft.  When the value stagnates at one position, look for studs at another.  In the table below, we can see how a top-five wideout has a similar value to a large group of backs.  So, why not gain an edge at receiver and select a similar rusher next round?  It pays to be proactive and look for talent plateaus and drop-offs.  Look for studs.  A top kicker or defense might be a great pick earlier than you would think, especially if giving you an extra two or three points per game each week. 

b. In smaller (eight or ten teams) leagues which start only one passer, there is no reason to address the position before the seventh round unless you get a stud at an outstanding value.  There will be great fantasy quarterbacks available later.  In smaller leagues, owners want to wait on the quarterback position (because there are so many good options) which makes the good passers drop further.  The results below bear out this very important point.  Cam Newton, the top-ranked passer, is only ranked 24th overall.  So, wait on selecting a quarterback and try to find studs at other positions.  Maybe the best strategy is to wait until at least eight quarterbacks are drafted before even looking at the position.  The depth at the quarterback position is enough that the risk-taking fantasy owners might be able to wait until other teams begin taking backups (which means ten or twelve passers are off the board), and then select two of Tom Brady, Eli Manning, or even Philip Rivers. In fact, we very much love the idea of pairing Brady with either Manning or Rivers to address the quarterback position.  The suspension is causing Brady to be drafted at a huge discount. 

c.  We will look a little later at how weighted the values are slanted toward the wide receivers (seven of the top ten player VBDs are wide receivers).  Even with this phenomena, after the top two receivers (Antonio Brown and Julio Jones) are off the board, we advise taking one of the top running backs because the scarcity at the position will soon catch up.  The difference between RB1 (David Johnson) and RB10 (Doug Martin) is roughly four points per game.  That is huge.  The expected fantasy production for all positions has definite tiers.  It is best to look for tier drop-offs as you evaluate players across positions. 

d.  Unless going after super stud (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, or Dez Bryant), it is best to wait on the wide receiver position until ten or fifteen are off the board.  There is very little difference in expected production so you might as well stock up on the position (running back) where you gain an advantage.  The difference between WR6 (Jordy Nelson) and WR20 (Randall Cobb) is approximately two points per game. 

e.    There are at least ten good kickers and team defenses so every team can have a good option.  You should employ one of two strategies for the kicker position.  Either take a stud earlier than you would think, or wait until ten are gone.  The stud gives you an extra few points a game so it is a viable strategy.  For the team defense position, it is best to play matchups with a smaller league.  There will be plenty of good options available on the waiver wire each week from which to choose.  Many times, it is better to have a mediocre defense with a great matchup than a good defense with a mediocre matchup. 

When we look at the VBD (Value Based Drafting) application, we quickly realize how valued the running backs are when compared to the other positions.  The VBD accounts for positional scarcity and available options at other positions using the Footballguys.com projections.  It is amazing that just no quarterback and only one tight end (Rob Gronkowski) were valued in the first two rounds.  This may be a surprise to you, but the reason is that there are several good options at both positions.  Even in PPR scoring, more than half of the first two rounds (14 of first 20 picks) are wider receivers.  The reason?  There are so few quality fantasy backs.  The league variables used were ten teams, sixteen roster spots, PPR scoring, and starting requirements of 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 3 Wide Receivers, 1 Tight End, 1 Flex, 1 Kicker, and 1 Team Defense.  The depth at the quarterback and wide receiver positions means that a fantasy owner can afford to wait on those positions while stocking up on rushers.  It is obvious looking at the table of top fifty players below that smaller leagues dictate a strong nucleus of running backs. 

The table above represents the Top 50 players in terms of VBD.  There are a few things that jump out.  As we discussed, the value of studs – especially at the receiver position - is immense.  Notice the VBD values for the three top players overall in comparison to the rest of the players, even very good players.  Also, as we progress to the 50^th overall player, the receivers account for more than half of the table.

When looking at the VBD spots from player 51 through 100, the wide receivers still have a huge advantage over running backs, and the value at quarterback and tight end is still lagging.  This is why it is acceptable to wait on the wide receiver position for filling out your fantasy bench.  There are plenty of great options after round five in a fantasy draft.  As discussed above, having studs is the only way to gain an advantage.  For this reason, an owner who loads up on wide receivers and running backs early on can still get studs at the other positions through the first ten rounds.  The chart illustrates why the kickers are actually a decent play when the value running back and wideout plateaus. 

Every league is different but this article should help you form a winning strategy in smaller PPR leagues. 

Please feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with any questions or comments. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIN, and Google+ so feel free to connect where most convenient.