Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Buffalo | -7 | 48 | 27.5 | +++ | +++ | |
| Atlanta | Indianapolis | -5.5 | 47.5 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Carolina | Washington | -7.5 | 45 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | ++ |
| Arizona | Cincinnati | -4.5 | 48 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
| Seattle | San Francisco | -12.5 | 40 | 26.25 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
| Philadelphia | Tampa Bay | -5.5 | 45.5 | 25.5 | + | + | |
| Oakland | Detroit | -1.5 | 48 | 24.75 | + | + | |
| Dallas | Miami | 0 | 47.5 | 23.75 | |||
| Kansas City | San Diego | -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | |||
| Miami | Dallas | 0 | 47.5 | 23.75 | |||
| Detroit | Oakland | 1.5 | 48 | 23.25 | |||
| Jacksonville | Tennessee | -3 | 43 | 23 | |||
| Minnesota | Green Bay | -1 | 45 | 23 | |||
| Green Bay | Minnesota | 1 | 45 | 22 | |||
| NY Jets | Houston | -2.5 | 41 | 21.75 | + | ||
| Cincinnati | Arizona | 4.5 | 48 | 21.75 | |||
| Baltimore | St. Louis | -1.5 | 41.5 | 21.5 | |||
| Chicago | Denver | -1.5 | 41.5 | 21.5 | |||
| Indianapolis | Atlanta | 5.5 | 47.5 | 21 | + | ||
| San Diego | Kansas City | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||
| Buffalo | New England | 7 | 48 | 20.5 | + | ||
| Tennessee | Jacksonville | 3 | 43 | 20 | |||
| St. Louis | Baltimore | 1.5 | 41.5 | 20 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Philadelphia | 5.5 | 45.5 | 20 | |||
| Denver | Chicago | 1.5 | 41.5 | 20 | |||
| Houston | NY Jets | 2.5 | 41 | 19.25 | |||
| Washington | Carolina | 7.5 | 45 | 18.75 | |||
| San Francisco | Seattle | 12.5 | 40 | 13.75 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Brandon LaFell/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: Seahawks
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Cam Newton (Panthers), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman (Falcons), Jonathan Stewart (Panthers), Chris Johnson (Cardinals)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Leonard Hankerson/Jacob Tamme (Falcons), Ted Ginn Jr/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd/John Brown (Cardinals), Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks)
- Defense: Panthers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Mark Sanchez (Eagles), David Carr (Raiders), Matt Hasselbeck (Colts), Tyrod Taylor (Bills)
- Running Back: DeMarco Murray/Ryan Mathews (Eagles), Latavius Murray (Raiders)
- Receivers: Jordan Matthews/Josh Huff/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree (Raiders), T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief/Coby Fleener (Colts), Sammy Watkins/Robert Woods/Charles Clay (Bills)
- Defense: Jets
