Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the third edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
Trends are beginning to emerge as we survey the damage after an injury-riddled Week 2. Certain teams, in the immortal words of Dennis Green, are who we thought they were and will continue to provide reasonably predictable week to week value. Some others are still in the feeling out process.
I say this every year in my column, but it bears repeating. No matter what record your team has right now, don’t get too down in the dumps or too high on your horse. It’s a long season and, as we saw in Week 2, injuries can derail your plans in a moment. Keep active on the waiver wire and read the great content provided by John Norton, Jene Bramel and the rest of the IDP team to stay on top of things.
With two sets of data points now at our disposal, predicting matchups and where the value lies is becoming an easier task, but sometimes the statistics can be misleading, so a healthy dose of watching film can provide some context.
So without further ado, let’s get to the best and worst matchups of Week 3.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Pressure Percentage is calculated as sacks plus quarterback hits per game divided by pass attempts faced by game and expressed as a percentage.
New York Jets front seven vs. Philadelphia
Re-watching the tape from the Jets’ demolition of the Indianapolis Colts showed me one thing: Todd Bowles has a knack for confusing quarterbacks. Andrew Luck looked, for one of the first times in his career, totally dumbstruck. And when he had time to throw, defensive backs were disciplined and stuck in the hip pocket of receivers. Bowles will not fear the Eagles offense after its poor display in the first two games; expect more pressure packages, with Revis, Cromartie and company entrusted to cover man-to-man. This could get ugly fast for the Eagles, unless they can turn this offense back into the juggernaut it used to be – but don’t count on it. Jets - pressure applied (league average in brackets): 22.2% (12.1%)Eagles - pressure allowed: 10%
New England front seven vs. Jacksonville
The Tom Brady Revenge Tour 2015 continues this week with Jacksonville coming to town, and there’s no reason to expect a let-up. The Patriots, thanks to a mauling of the Buffalo Bills, lead the league in sacks. The Jaguars have some pieces to exploit along the offensive line, notably Sam Young at left tackle. The game script in Foxboro should mean an early and comfortable lead for New England, allowing the pass rushers to pin their ears back and harass Blake Bortles. Patriots – pressure applied (league average in brackets): 19% (12.1%)Jaguars – pressure allowed: 11.5%
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Baltimore front seven vs. Cincinnati
It would be unwise to overreact to the Raiders loss for Baltimore’s defense, but let’s not simply sweep it under the rug either. John Harbaugh tends to get his players riled up for divisional games, so this is a nice spot for a bounceback, but Cincinnati has allowed the lowest pressure percentage in the league thus far (5%). Andy Dalton is yet to be sacked and has produced back-to-back outstanding games. The Bengals offensive line looks like a top tier unit, and without Terrell Suggs this Ravens pass rush has had to readjust on the fly. The smart play here might be to eschew your Ravens players for better options. Ravens – pressure applied: 9.9%Bengals – pressure allowed: 5%
Sack Opportunity Chart
| Team | Team Defense | Team Offense | ||||||
| Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |
| Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 |
| 2009 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 |
| 2010 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 |
| 2011 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 |
| 2012 NFL Average | 12.8% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 37 | 12.8% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 37 |
| 2013 NFL Average | 13.5% | 2.5 | 5.1 | 38 | 13.5% | 2.5 | 5.1 | 38 |
| 2014 NFL Average | 13.7% | 2.4 | 5.1 | 37.3 | 13.7% | 2.4 | 5.1 | 37.3 |
| 2015 NFL Average | 12.1% | 2.1 | 4.5 | 37.2 | 12.1% | 2.1 | 4.5 | 37.2 |
| Team | Team Defense | Team Offense | ||||||
| Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |
| Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 10.7% | 2 | 4.5 | 42 | 12.5% | 0 | 3.5 | 28 |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 13.8% | 1 | 6.5 | 47 | 13.3% | 1.5 | 5.5 | 41.5 |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 9.9% | 2.5 | 4.5 | 45.5 | 12.7% | 1 | 5 | 39.5 |
| BUFFALO Bills | 8.9% | 2 | 5 | 56 | 17.5% | 4 | 5 | 28.5 |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 9.6% | 3 | 5 | 52 | 9.7% | 2 | 3.5 | 36 |
| CHICAGO Bears | 12.8% | 0 | 3 | 23.5 | 13.9% | 2 | 5 | 36 |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 13.2% | 3 | 5 | 38 | 5% | 0 | 1.5 | 30 |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 17.6% | 3.5 | 6 | 34 | 15.4% | 2.5 | 4 | 26 |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 6.7% | 1 | 2.5 | 37.5 | 6.1% | 1.5 | 2.5 | 41 |
| DENVER Broncos | 25.4% | 3 | 8 | 31.5 | 13% | 3.5 | 6 | 46 |
| DETROIT Lions | 7.9% | 1.5 | 2.5 | 31.5 | 12.9% | 1 | 5.5 | 42.5 |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 12.9% | 2 | 4.5 | 35 | 8.6% | 1 | 2.5 | 29 |
| HOUSTON Texans | 10.8% | 2 | 4 | 37 | 8.1% | 3 | 4.5 | 55.5 |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 5.6% | 0.5 | 1.5 | 27 | 18.2% | 1 | 8 | 44 |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 10.1% | 2 | 4 | 39.5 | 11.5% | 2.5 | 4.5 | 39 |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 12% | 4 | 6 | 50 | 15.6% | 3 | 5 | 32 |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 6.2% | 0.5 | 2 | 32.5 | 12% | 2.5 | 5 | 41.5 |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 13.6% | 1 | 5.5 | 40.5 | 16.1% | 3 | 4.5 | 28 |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 19% | 5.5 | 7.5 | 39.5 | 7.4% | 2 | 3.5 | 47.5 |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 10.7% | 1.5 | 3 | 28 | 8.7% | 3 | 4 | 46 |
| NEW YORK Giants | 9.7% | 1 | 4.5 | 46.5 | 11.4% | 1.5 | 4.5 | 39.5 |
| NEW YORK Jets | 22.2% | 1.5 | 8 | 36 | 6.8% | 0.5 | 2 | 29.5 |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 2.5% | 0 | 1 | 39.5 | 7.6% | 1.5 | 3.5 | 46 |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 9.7% | 2 | 3.5 | 36 | 10% | 0.5 | 4.5 | 45 |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 11.8% | 3.5 | 5 | 42.5 | 7.4% | 1.5 | 2.5 | 34 |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 8.8% | 0.5 | 2.5 | 28.5 | 14.7% | 3 | 5.5 | 37.5 |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 12.5% | 2.5 | 4 | 32 | 14.1% | 3 | 5.5 | 39 |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 18.8% | 2 | 6 | 32 | 16.5% | 4 | 6.5 | 39.5 |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 19.7% | 4 | 7.5 | 38 | 17.7% | 1.5 | 5.5 | 31 |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 10% | 3 | 3 | 30 | 18% | 3.5 | 5.5 | 30.5 |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 16.7% | 3 | 4.5 | 27 | 21% | 4.5 | 6.5 | 31 |
| WASHINGTON | 11.4% | 2 | 4 | 35 | 11.5% | 1.5 | 3.5 | 30.5 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
San Francisco defenders at Arizona
The metrics may not agree through two weeks with this pick, but my gut tells me this could be a long day for San Francisco. Bruce Arians’ offense keys defenses guessing all game long with a multitude of formations and play calls. The Niners came back to earth in a big way in Pittsburgh, and arguably face a tougher test of their mettle in Arizona. Carson Palmer is having a quietly outstanding season, and while the Arizona ground game has been hampered by injuries, there is no reason why Arizona can’t control this game and provide ample tackle opportunity. The Cardinals have a rush percentage of 47.2 after two weeks, so the commitment to the ground game is there. Plug in your Niners defenders this week. Stat crew note: Arizona’s home stat crew is also one of the best for awarding solo tackles in relation to tackle opportunities according to our SVO metric (percentage of Defensive Solo Tackles awarded by Stat Crews in relation to Tackle Opportunities) at 88.2%.
Detroit defenders vs. Denver
The Lions look like a shell of their former selves this season. On defense, they are seeing 60.5 tackle opportunities per game through two weeks and 34.5 rush attempts per game. Not a recipe for success. If, as reports have indicated, Matthew Stafford is to miss this week’s game with the Broncos, it could get even worse. Coming off 10 days’ rest, it will be fascinating to see how Gary Kubiak chooses to run his offense. Either way, I expect this will be a game controlled by Denver. We have no data available for the Lions’ home stat crew, but last year they were middle of the pack in terms of tackles awarded per tackle opportunity.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Atlanta defenders at Dallas
The Cowboys, despite Jerry Jones pronouncing his admiration for incumbent Brandon Weeden, have traded for Matt Cassel. The presumption is that Weeden will get the start, but Cassel will be a decent option should Weeden go down. In either case, I can’t see the Dallas offense staying on schedule against a feisty Atlanta defense. The one saving grace for the Cowboys might be their ground game and offensive line, but I can envisage problems on third down, especially if Jason Witten isn’t playing as reported.
Seattle defenders vs. Chicago
The Jimmy Clausen-led Bears head to Seattle in perhaps the worst possible week to play the Seahawks in some time. The Bears have actually been a decent tackle matchup for the first two weeks, but this one may not go to that script. In the limited action Clausen has had under John Fox, he has shown competence at executing certain aspects of the offense, but you would have to think Fox will keep a tight leash on him. All this adds up to a quiet day for Seattle defenders. You might be tempted to play the likes of Bobby Wagner, Michael Bennett and Richard Sherman in big play formats; I wouldn’t blame you for that. This one could be over before it gets started.
Tackle Opportunity Chart
| Team | TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | |||||||||
| Tackle | Rush Attempts | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush | ||
| Opportunity | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | Percentage | ||
| 2008 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 54.8% | |
| 2009 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 55.1% | |
| 2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.5% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 54.3% | |
| 2011 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | |
| 2012 NFL Average | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% | 50.6 | 27.2 | 37 | 64.2 | 53.7% | |
| 2013 NFL Average | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% | 51.3 | 27.1 | 38 | 65 | 52.8% | |
| 2014 NFL Average | 51 | 26.7 | 37.3 | 64 | 52.5% | 51 | 26.7 | 37.3 | 64 | 52.5% | |
| 2015 NFL Average | 50.5 | 25.6 | 37.2 | 62.8 | 50.8% | 50.5 | 25.6 | 37.2 | 62.8 | 50.8% | |
| Team | TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | |||||||||
| Tackle | Rush Attempts | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush | ||
| Opportunity | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | Percentage | ||
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 52 | 24 | 42 | 66 | 36.4% | 43 | 25 | 28 | 53 | 47.2% | |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 52 | 19.5 | 47 | 66.5 | 29.3% | 54.5 | 26.5 | 41.5 | 68 | 39% | |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 50.5 | 21 | 45.5 | 66.5 | 31.6% | 50 | 24 | 39.5 | 63.5 | 37.8% | |
| BUFFALO Bills | 48 | 14 | 56 | 70 | 20% | 52.5 | 30 | 28.5 | 58.5 | 51.3% | |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 49.5 | 22 | 52 | 74 | 29.7% | 52.5 | 32.5 | 36 | 68.5 | 47.4% | |
| CHICAGO Bears | 44.5 | 27 | 23.5 | 50.5 | 53.5% | 52.5 | 30.5 | 36 | 66.5 | 45.9% | |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 49 | 20.5 | 38 | 58.5 | 35% | 52 | 31.5 | 30 | 61.5 | 51.2% | |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 54 | 32.5 | 34 | 66.5 | 48.9% | 44 | 28.5 | 26 | 54.5 | 52.3% | |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 43 | 20.5 | 37.5 | 58 | 35.3% | 58.5 | 26.5 | 41 | 67.5 | 39.3% | |
| DENVER Broncos | 46 | 26 | 31.5 | 57.5 | 45.2% | 51.5 | 23 | 46 | 69 | 33.3% | |
| DETROIT Lions | 60.5 | 34.5 | 31.5 | 66 | 52.3% | 42 | 15.5 | 42.5 | 58 | 26.7% | |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 49.5 | 29 | 35 | 64 | 45.3% | 50.5 | 28 | 29 | 57 | 49.1% | |
| HOUSTON Texans | 52.5 | 30.5 | 37 | 67.5 | 45.2% | 51.5 | 22 | 55.5 | 77.5 | 28.4% | |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 48.5 | 30 | 27 | 57 | 52.6% | 44.5 | 20 | 44 | 64 | 31.2% | |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 50.5 | 24.5 | 39.5 | 64 | 38.3% | 49 | 26.5 | 39 | 65.5 | 40.5% | |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 51.5 | 21.5 | 50 | 71.5 | 30.1% | 51 | 29 | 32 | 61 | 47.5% | |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 54 | 34 | 32.5 | 66.5 | 51.1% | 45 | 16.5 | 41.5 | 58 | 28.4% | |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 52 | 26.5 | 40.5 | 67 | 39.6% | 50.5 | 29 | 28 | 57 | 50.9% | |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 56 | 26 | 39.5 | 65.5 | 39.7% | 50.5 | 17 | 47.5 | 64.5 | 26.4% | |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 47.5 | 29.5 | 28 | 57.5 | 51.3% | 53 | 23 | 46 | 69 | 33.3% | |
| NEW YORK Giants | 55.5 | 21.5 | 46.5 | 68 | 31.6% | 48.5 | 23.5 | 39.5 | 63 | 37.3% | |
| NEW YORK Jets | 47 | 26 | 36 | 62 | 41.9% | 50 | 31 | 29.5 | 60.5 | 51.2% | |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 55.5 | 27 | 39.5 | 66.5 | 40.6% | 48.5 | 17 | 46 | 63 | 27% | |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 57.5 | 31.5 | 36 | 67.5 | 46.7% | 46.5 | 16.5 | 45 | 61.5 | 26.8% | |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 59 | 26.5 | 42.5 | 69 | 38.4% | 48 | 23 | 34 | 57 | 40.4% | |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 42.5 | 24.5 | 28.5 | 53 | 46.2% | 57.5 | 26.5 | 37.5 | 64 | 41.4% | |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 43.5 | 19 | 32 | 51 | 37.3% | 62 | 34 | 39 | 73 | 46.6% | |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 50.5 | 27 | 32 | 59 | 45.8% | 57.5 | 28 | 39.5 | 67.5 | 41.5% | |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 65.5 | 34 | 38 | 72 | 47.2% | 38.5 | 19.5 | 31 | 50.5 | 38.6% | |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 49 | 27.5 | 30 | 57.5 | 47.8% | 49 | 30.5 | 30.5 | 61 | 50% | |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 42.5 | 27.5 | 27 | 54.5 | 50.5% | 51 | 29.5 | 31 | 60.5 | 48.8% | |
| WASHINGTON | 36.5 | 15 | 35 | 50 | 30 | 60 | 36.5 | 30.5 | 67 | 54.5% | |
Best of luck with Week 3 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
