Photo: Chuck Cook, USA Today Sports
Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.
My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games
In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:
Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:
- Everything is sorted by position
- I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
- The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 9 Price
- The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
- H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
- I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.
General Thoughts
Situations that stand out to me this week.
- Fade the Patriots at your peril - In cash games (H2H, 50/50s, Double Ups), you would have to be crazy to fade Tom Brady. He is on pace for a record-setting season and I don't sense it will let up this week against an over-matched Washington secondary. The Redskins CBs are going to struggle to cover any of the NE pass-catchers. Brady isn't cheap at $9,500, but just plug him in. The Patriots are averaging 344 passing yards and 2.9 passing TDs per contest. Washington, in the last 4 weeks, is giving up yards everywhere yielding 268 through the air and another 196 per game on the ground. Vegas sees this as a blowout and has the Patriots as the highest scoring game of the week. Almost everyone is in play for the Patriots, but I think you can field your best cash lineups by simply taking Brady and (possibly PK Gostkowski) and fading the rest of the players. It's not that I expect Edelman, Gronkowski, LaFell, or Blount to be bad plays. I just can't differentiate which one will exceed his price by enough to make him more compelling than other situations I like. In GPPs, pairing Brady with another player can definitely work as nearly all of their pass catchers have 2 TD potential. The Patriot GPP stack I like the best is Brady / LaFell, because LaFell is so cheap at $5,200. In GPPs in general, I think you have to play at least one Patriot. Someone is going to crush it (besides Brady) this week. It's just tough to spot the exact mismatch that is better than the other.
- I think the OAK/PIT game could yield the type of pass-fest that can win you a lot of money this week. RB DeAngelo Williams takes over for the injured Le'Veon Bell. Based on Thursday ownership percentages, the masses like him to have a great game. I like Williams, but don't love him here. Oakland has been tough to run on. They have yielded just 69 yards and 0 TDs per contest over the last 4 weeks on the ground. Where Oakland is vulnerable is in the air where they have given up 304 yards and 1.7 passing TDs per contest over those same 4 weeks. The Steelers have similar numbers, yielding 317 yards through the air and just 81 on the ground over those same 4 weeks. As for pass catchers, I like nearly all of them. In cash, I will have Michael Crabtree in all of my lineups. At $5,800, he is way under-priced for the target volume he is going to get on Sunday. Both Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant are set up for big games. This is another situation where I think you have to have one or more of these passing options in your GPPs this week. It's likely that at least one player from both of these offenses go nuts.
- Monday Night Football looks to be another high-scoring game this week. The Chargers will be without WR Keenan Allen and TE Ladarius Green, but still have a very good pass attack. Without Allen, the Chargers will look to move the chains with Steve Johnson who should see a major uptick in targets. At $5,400 he is significantly under-priced. He is another player that will be in 100% of my cash lineups this week. Based on Thursday ownership levels, the field seems to prefer Malcom Floyd. I like Floyd as a deep threat and redzone target, but his role remains mostly unchanged with the loss of Keenan Allen. On the other side of the ball, Alshon Jeffery gets a plus matchup and is a solid cash game play. Flying a bit under the radar is RB Jeremy Langford. He will start in the place of injured Matt Forte and has looked the part in limited action this year. The Chargers have given 10 TDs to RBs already this season. With so many other RBs worthy of playing this week, Langford is a sneaky GPP play that should be lesser owned.
- Drew Brees made headlines with his 500+ passing yards and 7 TDs last week. But if there was ever a situation to zig while the field is zagging, it's this week. With the injury to RB Khiry Robinson, RB Mark Ingram should see an uptick in carries in a gamescript where he looks to be heavily involved. Vegas has the Saints winning by 8. Over the last 4 weeks, the Titans have been stingy in the air giving up just 216 yards while they yielded 123 on the ground. If the Saints are smart, they just keep handing it off to Mark Ingram. He has 2 TD potential.
Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 140.0
- QB Tom Brady, NE - $9,500
- RB Devonta Freeman, ATL - $8,900
- RB Mark Ingram, NO - $7,700
- TE Greg Olsen, CAR - $6,400
- WR Steve Johnson, SD - $5,400
- WR Michael Crabtree, OAK - $5,800
- WR Martavis Bryant, PIT - $6,900
- TD New Orleans Saints - $4,200
- PK Stephen Gostkowski - $5,200
Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Projected Points = 140.0
- QB Tom Brady, NE - $9,500
- RB Devonta Freeman, ATL - $8,900
- RB Mark Ingram, NO - $7,700
- TE Antonio Gates, SD - $6,000
- WR Steve Johnson, SD - $5,400
- WR Michael Crabtree, OAK - $5,800
- WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI - $7,900
- TD New Orleans Saints - $4,200
- PK Kai Forbath, NO - $4,200
Sample Roster 3 ($60K) - Projected Points = 140.9
- QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - $8,300
- RB Devonta Freeman, ATL - $8,900
- RB Mark Ingram, NO - $7,700
- TE Antonio Gates, SD - $6,000
- WR Steve Johnson, SD - $5,400
- WR Michael Crabtree, OAK - $5,800
- WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI - $7,900
- TD New York Jets - $4,700
- PK Stephen Gostkowski - $5,200
