Cracking FanDuel: Week 4

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 4 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 3 Price
  • The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

A Chalk Week?

This week seems a bit more obvious to me than some others in the recent past. The high scoring New England Patriots are on bye. The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are playing in London super early so it's removed from the slate.This is also the first week where I am no waiting on a lot of late-breaking info to set my lineups.

I suppose Andrew Luck could scratch Sunday morning and make us all pause as contemplate playing a 40 year-old Matt Hasselbeck against Jacksonville for $4,800. RB Thomas Rawls, SEA would also get a big boost if Marshawn Lynch were to scratch. But since the Seattle game is on Monday night, I am not expecting enough clarity to roster Rawls this week.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • The SF secondary is beyond pathetic. Carson Palmer was able to torch them at will last week and would have done even more had the game script required it. Ben Roethlisberger completed 21 of 27 passes for 369 yards and 3 TDs in week 2 against this hapless defensive unit. So what happens when a top 3 QB gets to play against it? Sky is the limit here for Aaron Rodgers and his WRs. Aaron is among the safest plays you are ever going to find this week. He is not cheap at $9,200, but he still should easily yield 2X+ production. His WRs are among the best values at the position. And although it may seem crazy to do this in a cash game, I am strongly suggesting you play the double-stack of Randall Cobb and James Jones with Aaron Rodgers. I am going all-in that San Francisco can't fix their defensive woes this week.
  • The Chicago Bears also look like a team imploding in front of our eyes. Their offense is without Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery and got shutout last week in Seattle. But as bad as their offense has been, their defense might be worse. They have allowed 8 passing TDs in the first 3 games. To make matters worse, they traded away a pair of pass rushers for two 6th round picks. If the corners thought their job was hard before, let;s see how it goes with no pass rush. Derek Carr is the recipient this week. If you want to hedge your cash game strategy, I would suggest centering it around Derek Carr ($7,000) and WR Amari Cooper ($7,200).
  • LeSean McCoy's scratch makes Karlos Williams ($6,300) a MUST-PLAY for both GPP and Cash games. Don't overthink this.
  • Martellus Bennett at $5,500 is among the safest plays at TE that I can remember. OAK has given up 297 yards and 5 TDs to TEs this year. Until Oakland shows they can defend the TE, I think this is a situation worth exploiting. Additionally, Chicago will likely be playing from behind which could yield a lot of targets to Martellus Bennett.

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 133.4 

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Projected Points = 134.3

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