Cracking FanDuel: Week 2

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 2 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 2 Price
  • The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • Las Vegas has set the over/under of the DAL/PHI game at 55. Based on what we saw HC Chip Kelly attempt to do last week regarding tempo, this number feels about right. Penalties halted a lot of the uptempo effectiveness, but when it was rolling it was impressive. I think nearly every skilled player is in play in this contest. Unfortunately a lot of these guys will be widely owned as well. I like all of these players in this one: QBs: Sam Bradford, Tony Romo. RBs: none, Recs: WR Jordan Matthews, WR Terrance Williams, and TEs Zach Ertz and Jason Witten. Both kickers should also be productive.
  • The blowout of the week looks like it will be New Orleans at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Vegas has set the line at 9.5 points and that might be kind. Drew Brees represents a great (and safe) cash game option and he has a history of putting up huge games at home. Mark Ingram becomes a MUST-play if CJ Spiller scratches. He is still an OK option even if Spiller is a go. WR Brandon Coleman makes an interesting GPP stack who should be able to torch the TB corners. If the game gets out of hand early, some TB players could rack up good garbage-time stats. TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins ($4,500) fits the role of a great-priced punt option.
  • The RB position is priced efficiently this week. I only project two RBs to get twice their value. The two I am centering most of my cash game action around are Detroit's Ameer Abdullah and San Francisco's Carlos Hyde. RB Carlos Hyde shredded the Minnesota running defense on Monday night. I don't sense the Vikings defense will have all their issues ironed out in the short week to handle a similar shifty Ameer Abdullah. At $6,400 he is soft on the cap which should help your rosters elsewhere. Carlos Hyde draws the Steelers defense. I don't like that he is playing on a short week, is a road underdog, and has to travel East for an early game. But this Steelers team is not like any of the past decade. They are soft on defense and saw Patriots RB Dion Lewis run circles around them. I suspect Carlos Hyde creates enough space and easily justifies his $7,000 tag.
  • I am having a hard time not just penciling in top WR options Julio Jones and Antonio Brown this week. Both have plus-matchups and are expected to have large roles in their offenses. Julio Jones is not 100%, but he was never in jeopardy of missing time. Among cheaper options I like Steve Smith and Larry Fitzgerald. They both draw inferior cornerback play and could be in for huge nights. Pierre Garcon is intriguing as Washington has just a few guys to catch the ball. He sould see a high number of targets.
  • As much as it's impossible to ever feel good fading Rob Gronkowski, I think this is the week to do it. Buffalo locked down QB Andrew Luck for much of week 1's game and has already promised to double and triple team Gronkowski on most plays. His increase in price and significantly tougher matchup opens the door for some cheap punt options at TE. TE Heath Miller ($5,400), Jordan Reed ($5,000) and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins ($4,500) all look like good bets to achieve twice their salary. Of these three, Reed is the most likely to falter in my opinion as he is not 100% and the St. Louis defensive front could cause massive problems for Kirk Cousins and his depleted receiving core.
  • Two cheap PK options are available at $4,500. Zach Hocker (NO) and Josh Brown (NYG) are both just $4,500 in home games. I also like PK Dan Bailey (Dal) in the expected shootout. I think this is a good week to diversify your kickers.
  • Two defenses are in play for me this week. I like St. Louis and Miami units and will have exposure to both of them this weekend. St. Louis was able to sack Russell Wilson six times in week 1. Washington will be without DeSean Jackson and I suspect the St. Louis front gets Kirk Cousins to make a lot of mistakes. I see a lot of sacks, hurries, and likely interceptions and fumbles. Carolina recorded 5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 2 interceptions, and a defensive TD against the Jaguars. The Jaguars face Miami this week with arguably a lot better pass rush.

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 128.3

  • QB Andrew Luck, IND - $8,900
  • RB Carlos Hyde, SF $7,000
  • RB Ameer Abdullah, DET $6,400
  • TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TB - $4,500
  • WR Julio Jones, ATL - $8,800
  • WR Antonio Brown, PIT - $9,200
  • WR Pierre Garcon, WAS - $5,400
  • TD St. Louis Rams - $4,900
  • PK Josh Brown, NYG - $4,500

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Projected Points = 126.0

  • QB Sam Bradford, PHI - $7,500
  • RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA - $8,500
  • RB Carlos Hyde, SF $7,000
  • TE Heath Miller, PIT - $5,400
  • WR Julio Jones, ATL - $8,800
  • WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI - $5,900
  • WR Jordan Matthews, PHI - $7,000
  • TD St. Louis Rams - $4,900
  • PK Dan Bailey, DAL - $5,000

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