Cracking FanDuel: Week 15

A look into the finer points of Week 15 NFL games on FanDuel

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games. It also does not include Saturday's Jets/Cowboys game.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 15 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 15 Price
  • The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • The redhot Seattle Seahawks draw the struggling (3 wins, 10 losses) Cleveland Browns at home. Over the last 4 weeks the Seahawks are averaging 295 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 162 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD per contest. With the Seahawks down to scraps at RB, look for QB Russell Wilson to again be the catalyst in this contest. Although there are some other juicy matchups on this NFL slate, Russell will be anchoring my cash game plays at quarterback.
  • RB David Johnson is so incorrectly priced at $6,500, it's not worth trying to determine the scenarios where it could be worth fading him. The Eagles have been giving up 162 yards on the ground (over the last 4 weeks) and also have been shredded in the air. David Johnson projects to be active in the passing game as well. Not worth overthinking things. Just pencil him in.
  • At the other RB spot, there are a lot of solid options. If Spencer Ware (KC) scratches, I will play Charcandrick West. If Ware is active, I will look to play combinations of Latavius Murray, DeAngelo Williams, Adrian Peterson, and Lamar Miller. The second RB is more of a fill in for me with so many other players / situations that I have to have in my lineups.
  • WRs Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr Jr. have been on fire as of late, but they draw tough defensive matchups this week. Best to avoid both in cash games. Julio Jones (on the road against JAC), and Calvin Johnson against the leaking New Orleans defense seem primed for big weeks.
  • Doug Baldwin (40 targets, 23 receptions, 381 yards and 8 TDs over the last 4 weeks will be among the most popular choices at WR for the same reasons I love Russell Wilson above. Some regression seems in order though and I could see teammate Tyler Locket outscoring him in this contest. The Lockett/Seattle defense stack is among my favorite plays of week 15.

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 134.8 - 135.5

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Projected Points = 132.5

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