Cracking FanDuel: Week 12

A look into the finer points of Week 12 NFL games on FanDuel

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 12 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 12 Price
  • The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • The Kansas City Defense has played great football after their bye stifling both the Broncos (13 points scored) and Chargers (3 points scored) on the road in successive weeks. They draw a much easier matchup at home that they should be able to dominate against. QB Tyrod Taylor isn't 100% and it shows on the field. There are a few other solid defensive matchups, but I think the Chiefs offer up the most upside.
  • Watch the news about Charcandrick West. If he is inactive on Sunday, I like RB Spencer Ware's prospects. The Chiefs use the RB a lot and he will be the workhorse back in a game I expect them to dominate. Buffalo's once feared defense has given up an average of 106 yards (and 1 rushing TD) on the ground over the last 4 weeks. At $6,100, Ware becomes a high-upside low-cost RB ($6,100) that will be in the majority of my lineups.
  • RB Thomas Rawls, SEA ($6,300) is the largest mispriced player on this week's slate. He is now the workhorse back for the Seahawks with Lynch out. Although the Steelers are yielding just 77 yards (and 0.3 TDs) per contest over the last 4 weeks, I think roling with Rawls and his safe floor is the way to construct your lineup this week.
  • For the season, the Saints are yielding 308 yards and 2.8 TDs per contest in the air. Over the last 4 weeks, those numbers have been even worse (348 yards and 4.7 TDs). Just pencil in Deandre Hopkins into your lineup. Even at $9,400, he is nearly impossible to fade here. And I would not fault anyone for playing QB Brian Hoyer ($7,100) here especially in GPPs. In fact my favorite GPP stack would include Hoyer/Hopkins and Cook (NO) as the Saints try and make this a track meet.
  • I can't imagine a scenario where the Arizona Cardinals don't CRUSH the San Francisco 49ers. But what I can see happening is that the Cardinals getting ahead and effectively grind out the game with the plethora of quality backs (and improved offensive line). For this reason, I am looking to fade Arizona offensive players (Fitzgerald is hard to fade because he is priced way too cheaply at $7,400) and instead lock into their PK Chandler Catanzaro.
  • WR Steve Johnson ($5,500) against JAC screams easy 2X value to me. Malcom Floyd returns in this game which should allow Philip Rivers a bit more options this week. Johnson likely does not have a great ceiling, but he should be targeted often enough to make the $5,500 price tag a no-brainer.

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 125.6

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Projected Points = 125.4

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