With the DFS showdown currently going on in New York, it appears FanDuel anticipated a lower participation rate this week. They shrunk the NFL Sunday Million down to 114,942 chairs with a first place payout of $300,000. We love contests of this size, especially when they pay 19 percent of the field.
This is also a good week where offensive matchups are concerned. We have five games with over/under totals of at least 47 points. On top of that, we have five backup quarterbacks under center, six if you count the situation in San Francisco, due to injuries or poor play. The net result gives us lots of affordable options and mixes in an added dose of uncertainty.
Uncertainty is our friend. It scatters ownership percentages effectively leaving some players under-owned and some over-owned. We’ll follow our weekly process to identify those players and take advantage of situations the crowd is ignoring.
Per usual, the numbers presented below are taken from a Thursday night GPP. They, in no way, are meant to be used as the basis of your strategy. We use them to get a snapshot of groupthink. Even without the tangible data provided by Thursday GPPs, we’d still be able to project ownership percentages with a high level of accuracy. These numbers simply serve as confirmation.
Again, this data isn’t meant to be the foundation of our tournament strategy for the weekend. For that matter, fading any player based solely on ownership percentage is never part of the strategy. Think of this as more of a guide to tiebreakers and pivot plays. In this space, we’ll use that guide to identify a few players that should be faded and few that are worth their chalk-heavy projections. There will be a follow up piece focusing on the contrarian side of things.
Quarterbacks
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Derek Carr | $7700 | OAK@DET | 16.1 | Alex Smith | $6200 | KC@SD | 2.1 |
Cam Newton | $8600 | WAS@CAR | 11.7 | Tony Romo | $8000 | DAL@MIA | 2 |
Tom Brady | $9200 | BUF@NE | 9.3 | Russell Wilson | $7600 | SF@SEA | 2 |
Matt Ryan | $7800 | IND@ATL | 5.2 | Mark Sanchez | $6400 | TB@PHI | 1.8 |
Matthew Stafford | $7000 | OAK@DET | 4.7 | Aaron Rodgers | $8900 | GB@MIN | 1.4 |
Carson Palmer | $8200 | CIN@ARI | 4.3 | Tyrod Taylor | $7200 | BUF@NE | 1.4 |
Brock Osweiler | $6000 | DEN@CHI | 4 | Ryan Tannehill | $7000 | DAL@MIA | 1.4 |
Philip Rivers | $8300 | KC@SD | 3.3 | Andy Dalton | $7900 | CIN@ARI | 1.1 |
Case Keenum | $4800 | STL@BAL | 2.5 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | $7400 | NYJ@HOU | 0.2 |
This year's No. 10 overall quarterback in FanDuel scoring is our most popular heading into Week 11. Derek Carr is averaging 276 passing yards per game and his 21 touchdowns is tied with Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers for third most. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions’ 20.3 FanDuel points per game allowed ranks as third most. The matchup for Carr is ideal and his salary doesn’t choke the rest of your lineup. The only reason to consider a fade is the fact that the Raiders’ running attack is quite good and will be in full form on Sunday. No team has allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Lions. Quality running backs are crushing this team. So while Carr might be good for his usual yards and maybe a score, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Latavius Murray absorb a large share of the Raiders scoring potential.
Here is Cam Newton’s value returned by week: 1.61x, 3.69x, 3.78x, 1.93x, 2.72x, 2.08x, 2.38x, 4.38x, 2.56x. On average, he is returning 2.79x thanks mostly to his six rushing touchdowns and 366 rushing yards, both of which lead all quarterbacks. This week his salary got a $400 bump as he hosts a Washington team that has allowed 20th most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Newton has effectively been matchup proof, having scored a rushing touchdown in six of his nine games. But Washington’s defense isn’t a push-around group bleeding fantasy points. They’ve yet to allow a 300-yard passer and their 76 rushing yards ranks 26th. Obviously, they haven’t faced someone as gifted as Newton, and he’ll be good for his usual rushing attempts and probable rushing scores. But it’s worth noting that his $8,600 salary—third highest among quarterbacks—requires a return of 25.8 points in order to qualify as a tournament option. We think, unless Washington comes in and threatens an upset, he falls well short of that in a low-scoring game.
Falling all the way to third most popular, Tom Brady enters the week as our No. 1 overall quarterback. He has been an automatic start most weeks thanks to a historic pace of passing yards and passing touchdowns. But there are concerns worth monitoring going forward. The Patriots offensive line is battered with injuries causing a weekly shuffle (though they look to be a lot better off this week in returning a few key players). Touchdown Tom recently lost two of his favorite targets in Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman. Losing Edelman is especially challenging considering his route tree and role in this offense. Fantasy points aside, Edelman was a key element Bill Belichick’s game plan, lining up all over the formation and running a variety of patterns not asked of most wide receivers. His role is not something any player can just step up and fill. So betting on Brady to continue ripping apart defenses and racking up the box score is ill-advised. That’s not to say the sky is falling. But our process is to identify popular plays that might underperform based on salary expectations. Brady is a candidate this week. Note, that the Bills have allowed just .45 fantasy points per attempt, which ties them with the Chiefs for ninth fewest. All things considered, we have enough evidence to fade his $9,200 tax.
Running Backs
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Charcandrick West | $7100 | KC@SD | 34.1 | Karlos Williams | $5700 | BUF@NE | 1.6 |
Devonta Freeman | $9100 | IND@ATL | 25 | Chris Johnson | $6800 | CIN@ARI | 1.3 |
Lamar Miller | $7400 | DAL@MIA | 18.3 | Ronnie Hillman | $6200 | DEN@CHI | 1.2 |
Todd Gurley | $9200 | STL@BAL | 13.5 | Justin Forsett | $6900 | STL@BAL | 0.9 |
Adrian Peterson | $8900 | GB@MIN | 11.7 | Matt Jones | $6100 | WAS@CAR | 0.9 |
Jeremy Langford | $6700 | DEN@CHI | 10.9 | Giovani Bernard | $6300 | CIN@ARI | 0.8 |
Christopher Ivory | $7200 | NYJ@HOU | 8.9 | Darren Sproles | $5400 | TB@PHI | 0.4 |
DeMarco Murray | $7600 | TB@PHI | 8.6 | C.J. Anderson | $5700 | DEN@CHI | 0.3 |
Darren McFadden | $6800 | DAL@MIA | 7.6 | Jay Ajayi | $5200 | DAL@MIA | 0.3 |
Danny Woodhead | $6400 | KC@SD | 7.3 | Jeremy Hill | $6500 | CIN@ARI | 0.2 |
Jonathan Stewart | $7000 | WAS@CAR | 7 | Melvin Gordon | $6000 | KC@SD | 0.2 |
Latavius Murray | $6800 | OAK@DET | 7 | Theo Riddick | $5100 | OAK@DET | 0.2 |
LeGarrette Blount | $7300 | BUF@NE | 6.5 | Matt Forte | $7800 | DEN@CHI | 0.1 |
Marshawn Lynch | $8100 | SF@SEA | 4.8 | Brandon Bolden | $5900 | BUF@NE | 0.1 |
LeSean McCoy | $7500 | BUF@NE | 4.7 | Eddie Lacy | $5600 | GB@MIN | 0.1 |
Frank Gore | $6600 | IND@ATL | 3 | Thomas Rawls | $5600 | SF@SEA | 0.1 |
Doug Martin | $6600 | TB@PHI | 2.8 | Alfred Morris | $5400 | WAS@CAR | 0.1 |
James Starks | $6200 | GB@MIN | 2.2 | Charles Sims | $5200 | TB@PHI | 0.1 |
Only three running backs have scored more fantasy points than Charcandrick West since Week 7, which is even more impressive when you consider those three have played four games to his three over that timespan. His first start in relief of Jamaal Charles was, in a word, horrible. But he has destroyed every defense he has faced since in true Charles fashion. Last week cemented the fact that he may be the best running back to own going forward. The Broncos, though easier to run on than common thought, issue a tough defense that we typically avoid when analyzing matchups. West clocked them with 161 total yards and two scores. This week he travels to face another division rival. This time, there is no threat defensively. The Chargers, when faced with even mediocre running talent, have been blasted. Their league-leading 27.3 FanDuel points allowed per game is a whole point more than second ranked Miami. There’s no reason to overthink West’s $7,100 salary. He is the loss leader of the week, so ignore his ownership and jump on the bandwagon.
We’re not as confident in Devonta Freeman. The Atlanta Falcons offense has been sputtering as of late. They’ve scored just 46 points over their last three contests, despite facing nonthreatening defenses. Freeman has averaged 18.6 points per game over that timespan, which wouldn’t be terrible if his average salary wasn’t $8,900. He’s back to costing north of $9,000 this week, but coming off of a bye should help his offense return to their early season form. A date with the Colts defense should also help. Only four teams have allowed more fantasy points per rush and their 10 total touchdowns is tied with two other teams for seventh most. His salary is almost prohibitive, but this may be a good week to side with the crowd and pay up for Freeman.
Since Dan Campbell took over as the head coach in Week 6, Lamar Miller is our No. 1 scoring running back with 622 total yards and seven touchdowns in five games. This week he gets a Cowboys defense that, even if surprising at times, has allowed 165.6 yards per game to running backs over their last three. Their 560 receiving yards ranks as third most and their 901 rushing yards ranks ninth. Tony Romo is expected to make his first start, so it’s possible the game script gets away from the Dolphins, should the Cowboys offense return to the form expected of them when healthy. As such, expecting Miller to see a ton of carries is foolish. But his contributions as a receiver protect his floor. His 22 targets over the last three weeks are tied for second most on the team, and even if Jay Ajayi is slowly eating into snap counts, we’re far from considering this to be a committee approach. But matchup aside, the Dolphins offense might be the biggest reason to consider Miller a fade. Over their last three games they’ve averaged just 318.6 total yards, including just 220 rushing yards over that timespan. In general, their offensive production is pointing downward and the trickledown effect will eventually reach Miller.
Wide Receivers
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Danny Amendola | $6100 | BUF@NE | 27.1 | Rishard Matthews | $6400 | DAL@MIA | 2.4 |
Julio Jones | $9100 | IND@ATL | 25.8 | Doug Baldwin | $5400 | SF@SEA | 2.2 |
Amari Cooper | $7200 | OAK@DET | 22.9 | Michael Floyd | $6400 | CIN@ARI | 1.7 |
Michael Crabtree | $6500 | OAK@DET | 19.8 | Golden Tate | $6200 | OAK@DET | 1.7 |
Mike Evans | $8000 | TB@PHI | 12.1 | John Brown | $5700 | CIN@ARI | 1.7 |
Larry Fitzgerald | $7400 | CIN@ARI | 12.1 | Ted Ginn Jr. | $5200 | WAS@CAR | 1.7 |
Jarvis Landry | $7200 | DAL@MIA | 11.1 | Marvin Jones | $5400 | CIN@ARI | 1.3 |
Eric Decker | $7000 | NYJ@HOU | 8.9 | Donte Moncrief | $6100 | IND@ATL | 1.2 |
Steve Johnson | $5600 | KC@SD | 8.9 | Cole Beasley | $5400 | DAL@MIA | 1 |
Calvin Johnson | $8100 | OAK@DET | 8 | Nate Washington | $5600 | NYJ@HOU | 0.9 |
Brandon LaFell | $6900 | BUF@NE | 7.3 | James Jones | $5200 | GB@MIN | 0.9 |
Stefon Diggs | $6700 | GB@MIN | 6.7 | DeSean Jackson | $6100 | WAS@CAR | 0.8 |
Dez Bryant | $8400 | DAL@MIA | 6.5 | Wes Welker | $5200 | STL@BAL | 0.8 |
Demaryius Thomas | $7700 | DEN@CHI | 6.5 | Terrance Williams | $5300 | DAL@MIA | 0.6 |
Sammy Watkins | $6600 | BUF@NE | 6.1 | Jamison Crowder | $5800 | WAS@CAR | 0.5 |
Tavon Austin | $6000 | STL@BAL | 4.8 | Andre Johnson | $5400 | IND@ATL | 0.5 |
Randall Cobb | $7100 | GB@MIN | 4.2 | Pierre Garcon | $6000 | WAS@CAR | 0.4 |
Davante Adams | $6800 | GB@MIN | 4.1 | Chris Givens | $4500 | STL@BAL | 0.4 |
T.Y. Hilton | $7200 | IND@ATL | 4 | Emmanuel Sanders | $7600 | DEN@CHI | 0.3 |
DeAndre Hopkins | $8900 | NYJ@HOU | 3.8 | Roddy White | $5400 | IND@ATL | 0.3 |
Brandon Marshall | $7900 | NYJ@HOU | 3.8 | Dontrelle Inman | $5000 | KC@SD | 0.3 |
Jordan Matthews | $6300 | TB@PHI | 3.8 | Torrey Smith | $5500 | SF@SEA | 0.2 |
A.J. Green | $8200 | CIN@ARI | 3.6 | Cecil Shorts | $5400 | NYJ@HOU | 0.2 |
Jeremy Maclin | $6300 | KC@SD | 3.5 | Mike Wallace | $5200 | GB@MIN | 0.2 |
Alshon Jeffery | $7500 | DEN@CHI | 3.2 | Robert Woods | $5100 | BUF@NE | 0.2 |
Kamar Aiken | $5900 | STL@BAL | 2.6 | Kenny Britt | $5300 | STL@BAL | 0.1 |
We’ve already briefly touched on what the loss of Edelman means to the Patriots. The next man up is Danny Amendola. His 27.1 percent exposure the second highest of all Thursday players. The crowd has identified his role as the next Edelman but at a major discount. The fault in that logic is that Amendola isn’t as athletic and won’t be asked to run the same routes initially. That said, he should see a carload of targets, especially underneath as the Patriots attempt to keep the Bills defensive line away from Brady. For $6,100, we almost have to ignore his ownership and buy a share of the Patriots offense at a discount.
The Falcons are coming off of a much needed bye and we’re hoping they’ve sorted out some of the offensive issues that have crept over the past few weeks. Here’s the tricky thing heading into Week 11: do you buy Julio Jones, or do you buy Freeman? This isn’t the kind of game where we’re comfortable in paying up for both and risking the negative correlation associated with that type of lineup, especially considering the cost to do so (30 percent of the salary cap). But it’s seems almost certain that one of these two players is going to have a monster game. They are priced identically so salary isn’t a factor. The Colts defense is beatable at nearly every angle, both though running backs and receivers. The over/under total in this one is a healthy 47.5 points, indicating that perhaps a decent amount of scoring is in the cards (maybe starting both is a good play). But the Colts are featuring a backup quarterback, who is effective but not the type to trigger a high-scoring shootout. The deciding factor, if you’re in the business of choosing at least one Falcons player, is positional opportunity. And by that we mean, the opportunity to select other players with similar matchups. There are lot of good running back options this week. We’ve mentioned three of them with West, Freeman and Miller. Digging deeper you find Adrian Peterson at home against the Packers, Marshawn Lynch at home against the 49ers, and even if Todd Gurley has a tough matchup, he’s a lock for 25 or more touches. There, of course, are always lots of good-to-great receiving options. But Jones is an elite option every week and especially elite when facing a forgiving defense. Fire him up as a loss leader.
Teammates Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree rank as our third and fourth most popular per Thursday data. You’d think by now that their salaries would reflect their production. Both are great plays against a Lions defense that has allowed the ninth most receiving yards. This game could and should feature lots of scoring, so we might be tempted to roll out a Raiders power stack with Carr, Cooper and Crabtree. If you’re into just one of those two receivers, the sharp move would be to fade Cooper and take the Crabtree discount. He ranks 13th in targets among all receivers, and his 37 over the last four weeks are just two fewer than Cooper’s. It’s worth noting that FootballOutsiders.com ranks Detroit 16th against WR1s and 28th against WR2s. Crabtree, per ProFootballReference, has seven targets inside the 20 compared to Cooper’s three, and three targets inside the 10 compared to zero. It’s also worth noting that Murray, as mentioned, may soak up a couple of touchdowns leaving few for other players. The Lions have allowed only eight touchdowns to wide receivers this season.
The Buccaneers’ offense is a bit schizophrenic. Some games, like in Week 5 and Week 7, they explode and dump 30-some points on their opponents. Then there are other games, like in Week 3 and Week 10, where they score 10 points or fewer. This week they are on the road to take on a secondary that has allowed the fifth most FanDuel points to receivers. Be sure to check out their defensive game logs and note how they’re getting killed by WR1s. With that in mind, despite the uncertainty of the Buccaneers offense, Mike Evans has a beautiful Week 11 matchup on paper. He should be littered with targets (he has seen 32 over the last two games) and there’s a high propensity for him to rack up eight catches, just as he has done three times out his last four games, in route to his fifth 100-yard box score. But there’s also the propensity for Jameis Winston to throw more interceptions than touchdowns and spend a good part of the game getting harassed by the Eagles’ pass rush. So expecting 3x value from Evans’ $8,000 salary might be asking a lot.
Tight Ends
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Greg Olsen | $6400 | WAS@CAR | 20.3 | Jacob Tamme | $5300 | IND@ATL | 2.2 |
Rob Gronkowski | $8400 | BUF@NE | 14.4 | Richard Rodgers | $5400 | GB@MIN | 1.3 |
Travis Kelce | $5700 | KC@SD | 6.9 | Martellus Bennett | $5200 | DEN@CHI | 1.3 |
Jordan Reed | $5800 | WAS@CAR | 6.7 | Crockett Gillmore | $5300 | STL@BAL | 1.1 |
Antonio Gates | $5900 | KC@SD | 5.5 | Coby Fleener | $5000 | IND@ATL | 0.8 |
Tyler Eifert | $6200 | CIN@ARI | 5.2 | Charles Clay | $5200 | BUF@NE | 0.8 |
Jason Witten | $5500 | DAL@MIA | 4.8 | Zach Ertz | $5200 | TB@PHI | 0.7 |
Eric Ebron | $5400 | OAK@DET | 3.9 | Brent Celek | $5300 | TB@PHI | 0.3 |
Jimmy Graham | $5800 | SF@SEA | 3.3 | Vernon Davis | $5000 | DEN@CHI | 0.3 |
Greg Olsen enters the week as TE4 per FanDuel scoring. Since he’s basically a wide receiver, he leads all tight ends in targets and his five touchdowns rank fifth. This week he is at home against a Washington defense that has allowed only 408 yards to tight ends and only one touchdown. Olsen, of course, is matchup proof thanks to the Panthers lack of other options. However, this contest looks like it could be one of the lowest scoring this week should the Panthers defense down Kirk Cousins and Co. Let’s look elsewhere.
There’s going to be more work put on Rob Gronkowski’s shoulders given the fact that the Patriots just lost their most targeted player. You can pretty much ignore the Bills success against tight ends this season, and ignore his exposure as well. Gronkowski is in for a big Monday night. The challenge, as always, is designing a lineup around his $8,400 salary.
That said, if you’re looking for a pivot play, Travis Kelce has you covered. His exposure was the third highest per Thursday night data, but not fade-level high. He has been an unreliable option this year, but we love his $5,700 salary against the Chargers, who have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends thus far.
Kickers
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Stephen Gostkowski | $5100 | BUF@NE | 15.8 | Brandon McManus | $4800 | DEN@CHI | 3.3 |
Cairo Santos | $5000 | KC@SD | 7.5 | Connor Barth | $4800 | TB@PHI | 3.1 |
Chandler Catanzaro | $4700 | CIN@ARI | 6.4 | Matt Bryant | $5000 | IND@ATL | 2.4 |
Dan Bailey | $4600 | DAL@MIA | 6.4 | Josh Lambo | $4700 | KC@SD | 2.1 |
Graham Gano | $4800 | WAS@CAR | 5.6 | Greg Zuerlein | $4600 | STL@BAL | 2.1 |
Blair Walsh | $4900 | GB@MIN | 5.1 | Randy Bullock | $4500 | NYJ@HOU | 1.7 |
Sebastian Janikowski | $4600 | OAK@DET | 4.7 | Mason Crosby | $4900 | GB@MIN | 1.5 |
Steven Hauschka | $5000 | SF@SEA | 4.5 | Caleb Sturgis | $4800 | TB@PHI | 1.1 |
Justin Tucker | $4900 | STL@BAL | 3.4 | Andrew Franks | $4700 | DAL@MIA | 0.4 |
As always, we don’t want to overthink this position. Stephen Gostkowski should have plenty of opportunities and will likely be the highest scoring kicker of the week. We’re not as confident in Cairo Santos, even if the matchup says otherwise. In general, it’s hard to suggest any kicker priced higher than $4,700.
Defense
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Seattle Seahawks | $5400 | SF@SEA | 20 | New England Patriots | $4800 | BUF@NE | 3.9 |
Carolina Panthers | $4900 | WAS@CAR | 11.6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | $4000 | TB@PHI | 3.7 |
New York Jets | $4700 | NYJ@HOU | 9.3 | Arizona Cardinals | $4800 | CIN@ARI | 2.9 |
Philadelphia Eagles | $4900 | TB@PHI | 6.2 | Atlanta Falcons | $4600 | IND@ATL | 2.6 |
Kansas City Chiefs | $4400 | KC@SD | 4.9 | Miami Dolphins | $4700 | DAL@MIA | 1.5 |
St Louis Rams | $5000 | STL@BAL | 4.8 | Oakland Raiders | $4500 | OAK@DET | 1.4 |
Chicago Bears | $4200 | DEN@CHI | 4.3 | Dallas Cowboys | $4400 | DAL@MIA | 1 |
Denver Broncos | $5300 | DEN@CHI | 4.2 | Green Bay Packers | $4600 | GB@MIN | 0.8 |
Houston Texans | $4500 | NYJ@HOU | 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | $4700 | CIN@ARI | 0.5 |
The chalk Seattle Seahawks are a must-roster for us. It’s hard to imagine them not scoring a defense touchdown or allowing more than 10 points at home to one of the worst offenses in the league.
We’ve already mentioned the Panthers defense will likely swallow Cousins whole. But we also don’t want undersell the fact that Washington’s offense is just now getting healthy and can compete. Perhaps fading Carolina’s $4,900 salary and heavy exposure is a good idea.
The Jets defense has looked vulnerable over the last few weeks, but they should right the ship against a bad Texans offense pushing out a backup quarterback. If you’re looking for Seahawks pivot, the Jets are your best bet.