Now that bye weeks have come and gone, we’ll have a full slate of games to choose from. In general, this means ownership percentages will be a little more spread out except in the cases of truly obvious plays. It also means we’ll have a gaggle of contrarian options each week. More choices don’t translate to better choices. But with the season past the halfway mark, we have a good lock on offensive and defensive trends. As such, we can identify under-owned players and build unique rosters with confidence.
Just like with fades, we’ll never advocate going contrarian for the sake contrarianism. There is a method to uniqueness. Throwing darts at low-floor, bottom depth chart players is not a part of that method. Taking advantage of injury situations and over/under point totals from Vegas is.
Going forward, we’ll have to leave our comfort zones a little bit. So be sure to protect your bankrolls and limit how much you invest as a contrarian.
The numbers presented in the tables below are taken from a $2 Thursday night GPP. We can use these exposure percentages to assist our ownership projections for Sunday/Monday GPPs. Doing so increases our accuracy and provides a clearer picture of groupthink—something we’ll almost always try to avoid.
Quarterbacks
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Cam Newton | $9000 | CAR@NO | 18.8 | Blake Bortles | $7400 | JAC@TEN | 1.9 |
Andy Dalton | $8000 | CIN@CLE | 7 | Marcus Mariota | $7100 | JAC@TEN | 1.8 |
Ben Roethlisberger | $8100 | IND@PIT | 6.9 | Russell Wilson | $7800 | SEA@MIN | 1.7 |
Tom Brady | $9400 | PHI@NE | 5.8 | Brock Osweiler | $6900 | DEN@SD | 1.7 |
Jay Cutler | $7000 | SF@CHI | 4.5 | Derek Carr | $7700 | KC@OAK | 1.6 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | $7500 | NYJ@NYG | 3.2 | Alex Smith | $6600 | KC@OAK | 1.6 |
Carson Palmer | $7900 | ARI@STL | 3 | Matt Hasselbeck | $6500 | IND@PIT | 1.6 |
Kirk Cousins | $6600 | DAL@WAS | 3 | Eli Manning | $7600 | NYJ@NYG | 1.4 |
Ryan Tannehill | $7300 | BAL@MIA | 2.1 | Jameis Winston | $7200 | ATL@TB | 1.4 |
There is no better contrarian play this week than Eli Manning. He is hosting a defense that is currently doing the cornerback shuffle with Darrelle Revis out. The Giants don’t have a running game so their wins and losses are on Manning’s arm. They also don’t have a defense, which suggests this game could end up being a shootout. $7,600 isn’t a lot to pay for a quarterback accompanied by one of the best receivers in the game. A Giants stack is in play this week.
Matt Hasselbeck is in an intriguing option. Though he gets a game manager rep, he’ll need to do a lot more than that against the Steelers. Thankfully, the Steelers pass defense is one of the worst in the league. They’ve allowed the second most passing yards and sixth most touchdowns. For $6,500, you can get a quarterback that has been efficient in relief of Andrew Luck this year and build a nice looking roster as a result.
We’d feel a lot more confident in Alex Smith, also a game manager, if he had some better receiving options. That said, Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin do enough to keep defenses honest, and both Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware are effective pass-catchers. The over/under of the Chiefs/Raiders tilt is set at 44 points, which feels low to us. Neither of these defenses can defend the pass and both teams are still in the hunt for a Wild Card.
Running Backs
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
DeAngelo Williams | $7200 | IND@PIT | 25.4 | Darren McFadden | $7300 | DAL@WAS | 3.5 |
Jonathan Stewart | $7200 | CAR@NO | 16.4 | Shaun Draughn | $5900 | SF@CHI | 3.4 |
Doug Martin | $7600 | ATL@TB | 14.1 | Todd Gurley | $8400 | ARI@STL | 3.2 |
David Johnson | $5900 | ARI@STL | 12.2 | Spencer Ware | $6500 | KC@OAK | 2.6 |
Adrian Peterson | $9100 | SEA@MIN | 9 | Charcandrick West | $6700 | KC@OAK | 2.3 |
LeSean McCoy | $7800 | HOU@BUF | 9 | T.J. Yeldon | $6100 | JAC@TEN | 2.3 |
C.J. Anderson | $6800 | DEN@SD | 9 | Jeremy Langford | $6400 | SF@CHI | 2.2 |
Christopher Ivory | $7100 | NYJ@NYG | 7.8 | Jeremy Hill | $6600 | CIN@CLE | 1.9 |
Thomas Rawls | $7000 | SEA@MIN | 7.6 | Ronnie Hillman | $6300 | DEN@SD | 1.6 |
Matt Forte | $7600 | SF@CHI | 6.7 | Latavius Murray | $6400 | KC@OAK | 1.2 |
Javorius Allen | $6800 | BAL@MIA | 6.1 | Mark Ingram | $7200 | CAR@NO | 1.1 |
LeGarrette Blount | $6900 | PHI@NE | 5.5 | DeMarco Murray | $7400 | PHI@NE | 0.9 |
Lamar Miller | $6700 | BAL@MIA | 4.7 | Danny Woodhead | $5700 | DEN@SD | 0.9 |
Devonta Freeman | $9000 | ATL@TB | 4.1 | Frank Gore | $6200 | IND@PIT | 0.4 |
Giovani Bernard | $6200 | CIN@CLE | 3.7 | Antonio Andrews | $5600 | JAC@TEN | 0.2 |
As a general rule, we like to avoid running backs that are smothered by a committee approach. Such is the case for Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Bernard has played far more snaps than Hill and appears to be a better fit for the Bengals offensive scheme. But Hill is still getting enough work to justify a spot as a contrarian option in Week 13. The Browns are one of the worst rushing defenses in the league and will likely get blown out. As a result, Hill could be asked to close the game and should find the endzone. He was having a solid game last week before leaving with injury and scored twice in the week before. He is not on the injury report going into Sunday. We like his $6,600 salary and touchdown upside.
It’s hard to have faith in Shaun Draughn considering the offense he plays for. There’s nothing particularly special about the way he runs, either. He’s just kind of a guy who gets the benefit of no competition for carries. The Bears defense is beatable on the ground and even though the 49ers have been one of the worst offenses, Draughn’s usage and $5,900 salary makes him a contrarian candidate.
While the crowd flocks to C.J. Anderson licking their recency bias chops, Ronnie Hillman wants us to remember that he’s also good at football and has been a consistent option for the Broncos. This is another “hot hand” situation that we like to stay away from. But the Chargers are bad enough that it’s conceivable both Anderson and Hillman have big days. He may be a risky longshot, but his $6,300 salary, consistent usage and top-five matchup make his services worth consideration.
Wide Receivers
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Alshon Jeffery | $7700 | SF@CHI | 22.8 | Demaryius Thomas | $7600 | DEN@SD | 4.8 |
Antonio Brown | $9000 | IND@PIT | 19.1 | Doug Baldwin | $6200 | SEA@MIN | 4.8 |
A.J. Green | $8400 | CIN@CLE | 14.2 | Danny Amendola | $6700 | PHI@NE | 4.2 |
Odell Beckham Jr. | $9400 | NYJ@NYG | 10.9 | Mike Evans | $7900 | ATL@TB | 3.9 |
Julio Jones | $9200 | ATL@TB | 10.4 | Kamar Aiken | $6100 | BAL@MIA | 3.8 |
Jeremy Maclin | $6500 | KC@OAK | 10 | Travis Benjamin | $5900 | CIN@CLE | 3.2 |
Brandon LaFell | $6600 | PHI@NE | 9.7 | Dez Bryant | $7200 | DAL@WAS | 2.9 |
Jarvis Landry | $7400 | BAL@MIA | 9 | Donte Moncrief | $6400 | IND@PIT | 2.3 |
Brandon Marshall | $8100 | NYJ@NYG | 8.8 | DeVante Parker | $5200 | BAL@MIA | 2.2 |
Allen Robinson | $8000 | JAC@TEN | 8.8 | Brandin Cooks | $7100 | CAR@NO | 1.7 |
Martavis Bryant | $6900 | IND@PIT | 8.7 | Steve Johnson | $6200 | DEN@SD | 1.3 |
Sammy Watkins | $7000 | HOU@BUF | 8.5 | Marvin Jones | $5200 | CIN@CLE | 1.1 |
T.Y. Hilton | $7300 | IND@PIT | 8.2 | Stefon Diggs | $6200 | SEA@MIN | 1 |
Larry Fitzgerald | $7300 | ARI@STL | 6.6 | Tavon Austin | $6100 | ARI@STL | 1 |
Eric Decker | $7200 | NYJ@NYG | 6.4 | Anquan Boldin | $6000 | SF@CHI | 1 |
DeSean Jackson | $6500 | DAL@WAS | 6.3 | Kendall Wright | $5200 | JAC@TEN | 1 |
Amari Cooper | $7000 | KC@OAK | 6 | Vincent Jackson | $6300 | ATL@TB | 0.7 |
Michael Crabtree | $6600 | KC@OAK | 5.9 | Rueben Randle | $5800 | NYJ@NYG | 0.5 |
DeAndre Hopkins | $8900 | HOU@BUF | 5.4 | Jordan Matthews | $6200 | PHI@NE | 0.4 |
Emmanuel Sanders | $7300 | DEN@SD | 5 | Dorial Green-Beckham | $5100 | JAC@TEN | 0.1 |
The best way to be contrarian is to roster elite talent when the crowd is shy. Dez Bryant is as healthy as he has been all season. This week he gets a Monday night tilt against Washington, who have allowed the fifth most FanDuel points to receivers including the third most touchdowns. Matt Cassel is the only thing standing in his way. But his $7,200 salary and low exposure are too good to pass on. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him visit the endzone a few times Monday night.
If you like Hasselbeck you have to love Donte Moncrief. The Steelers, if you’ll remember, are one of the worst passing defenses in the league and were just blasted by Doug Baldwin last week. Moncrief benefits from T.Y. Hilton keeping defenders distracted. This contest could be the highest scoring of the week. In fact, it is our highest over/under point total (49), meaning Vegas expects two bad defenses to collide in a shootout Sunday night. $6,400 is a reasonable price to pay in a fantasy friendly matchup. As it stands, Moncrief has 17 targets over the last two games, most of any Colts receiver, and four redzone looks. He’s a good bet to find the endzone for the first time since Week 6.
Since returning from injury, Anquan Boldin has seen 18 targets of which he’s converted into 13 catches for a combined 186 yards. Blaine Gabbert has been playing decent, if not good, football lately, and he clearly favors Boldin as a check-down. The matchup isn’t sexy and the upside is downright ugly, but the Bears have allowed 15 touchdowns to wide receivers this year—tied for seventh most. It’s not pretty but if you’re looking for a cheap roster option, Boldin’s $6,000 is as about as safe as they come.
Tight Ends
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Greg Olsen | $6600 | CAR@NO | 27.7 | Antonio Gates | $5900 | DEN@SD | 3.7 |
Scott Chandler | $5300 | PHI@NE | 13.9 | Tyler Eifert | $6400 | CIN@CLE | 2 |
Delanie Walker | $6000 | JAC@TEN | 10.5 | Kyle Rudolph | $5100 | SEA@MIN | 1.4 |
Jordan Reed | $5900 | DAL@WAS | 8.5 | Jason Witten | $5600 | DAL@WAS | 1 |
Julius Thomas | $5800 | JAC@TEN | 6.6 | Jacob Tamme | $5200 | ATL@TB | 0.7 |
Travis Kelce | $6200 | KC@OAK | 6.1 | Vernon Davis | $5200 | DEN@SD | 0.4 |
Gary Barnidge | $6100 | CIN@CLE | 4.5 | Charles Clay | $5100 | HOU@BUF | 0.2 |
Based solely on the matchup, Kyle Rudolph makes for an interesting option. The Seahawks have been horrible at covering tight ends. Only three other teams have allowed more yards and more fantasy points per game. Rudolph is second in team targets and has compiled 159 yards and one touchdown over the last two weeks. There isn’t a better low-cost option at tight end in Week 13.
Leonard Hankerson will be out again this week, which means all of Matt Ryan’s check-downs belong, once again, to Jacob Tamme. He is our TE10 since Week 5 and has seen 52 targets during that span. The matchup isn’t the best but the volume should be there as the Buccaneers focus on stopping the combination of Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman.
The crowd is somewhat wise to Julius Thomas, who checks in as our fifth most popular option per Thursday night data. His $5,800 salary isn’t he easiest to swallow, but he has good matchup against the Titans. He found the endzone on one of his five catches the last time these two teams met. Unfortunately, he managed only 28 yards. We expect him to be more involved this time around, especially with Allen Hurns out.
Defense
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Carolina Panthers | $4900 | CAR@NO | 17 | Miami Dolphins | $4500 | BAL@MIA | 2.7 |
Cincinnati Bengals | $5100 | CIN@CLE | 14.3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | $4500 | IND@PIT | 2.2 |
New England Patriots | $4800 | PHI@NE | 10.9 | Buffalo Bills | $4500 | HOU@BUF | 2.1 |
Arizona Cardinals | $5400 | ARI@STL | 6.4 | New York Jets | $4600 | NYJ@NYG | 1.6 |
Denver Broncos | $5300 | DEN@SD | 6 | San Diego Chargers | $4000 | DEN@SD | 0.8 |
Houston Texans | $4900 | HOU@BUF | 3.2 | Atlanta Falcons | $4600 | ATL@TB | 0.5 |
Seattle Seahawks | $4800 | SEA@MIN | 3 | St Louis Rams | $4600 | ARI@STL | 0.5 |
Kansas City Chiefs | $4700 | KC@OAK | 2.9 |
Remember last week when Matt Schaub took over as the starter for the Ravens? Yeah, he was awful and donated a pick-six in true Schaubian fashion. And that was against a really bad Browns defense. This week he travels to take on a Miami team that has been know to harass opposing quarterbacks thanks to Ndamukong Suh. Their price of $4,500 is plenty fair and could easily reach tournament value should Schaub play like he did last Monday night.
If you’re in need of some salary cap flexibility and want to totally punt this position, then the Chargers are for you. Yes, their defense is horrible and have been overly generous to just about every offense they’ve faced. But they are playing Brock Osweiler who can be careless. There’s no stats to back up the claim that they are a good contrarian play. This is simply a punt and pray scenario. Should they luck into a pick-six, they’ll easily return value. Again, if you’re picking up their $4,000 salary, you’re doing it because you’ve pimped out your roster at every other position in hopes that those players will cover the difference.