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Welcome to backup week in the NFL. We have five quarterbacks, ones that normally spend Sundays on the sideline, stepping into a lead role thanks to injuries or poor play. Chances are that at least of these five quarterbacks is going to have a solid game and return tournament value, especially considering they all come at a discount. All we have to do is pick the right one.
That, of course, has been our process in the space all season. Said backups are all going to have low exposure simply because the crowd is either unaware of their value, or too afraid to risk their rosters with a player that’s on the team for nothing more than depth. As a result, we’re provided with more contrarian options than usual. Just like with fades, we’ll never advocate going contrarian for the sake contrarianism. That said, we’ll have to leave our comfort zones a little bit. So be sure to protect your bankrolls and limit how much you invest as a contrarian.
The numbers presented in the tables below are taken from a $2 Thursday night GPP. We can use these exposure percentages to assist our ownership projections for Sunday/Monday GPPs. Doing so increases our accuracy and provides a clearer picture of groupthink—something we’ll almost always try to avoid.
Quarterbacks
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Derek Carr | $7700 | OAK@DET | 16.1 | Alex Smith | $6200 | KC@SD | 2.1 |
Cam Newton | $8600 | WAS@CAR | 11.7 | Tony Romo | $8000 | DAL@MIA | 2 |
Tom Brady | $9200 | BUF@NE | 9.3 | Russell Wilson | $7600 | SF@SEA | 2 |
Matt Ryan | $7800 | IND@ATL | 5.2 | Mark Sanchez | $6400 | TB@PHI | 1.8 |
Matthew Stafford | $7000 | OAK@DET | 4.7 | Aaron Rodgers | $8900 | GB@MIN | 1.4 |
Carson Palmer | $8200 | CIN@ARI | 4.3 | Tyrod Taylor | $7200 | BUF@NE | 1.4 |
Brock Osweiler | $6000 | DEN@CHI | 4 | Ryan Tannehill | $7000 | DAL@MIA | 1.4 |
Philip Rivers | $8300 | KC@SD | 3.3 | Andy Dalton | $7900 | CIN@ARI | 1.1 |
Case Keenum | $4800 | STL@BAL | 2.5 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | $7400 | NYJ@HOU | 0.2 |
There are two competing narratives to buy into regarding the Cardinals/Bengals throw down: Carson Palmer returning to destroy the team that refused to trade him back in 2010; the team that refused said trade handing him an ugly loss. We’re going to buy into the Palmer side. This has the makings of a revenge game in which the Cardinals will make every attempt to run up the score. And it shouldn’t be hard for them to do so. Palmer is surrounded by wealth of weapons and deep offensive depth chart to cover up injuries. The Bengals have a stingy defense that’s allowed only 11 passing touchdowns to nine interceptions and rank seventh in the fewest FanDuel points allowed to quarterbacks. As such, the crowd is staying away. We’ll be happy to fade the crowd and jump all over the Cardinals in one of the highest over/under totals of the week. Also, let’s remember that Joe Flacco and Alex Smith dropped 362 and 386 yards respectively on this secondary earlier this season, so we shouldn’t overcompensate when analyzing this matchup.
Down in the bargain bin and barely making an appearance on Thursday rosters is Mark Sanchez. Basically, if not for Chip Kelly, we’d start whichever defense Sanchez is facing. But he has put together some excellent games as an Eagle. He wasn’t great in relief last week, especially considering the horrible endzone interception. But he also had a beautiful touchdown pass to Zach Ertz called back thanks to Riley Cooper getting called for an offensive penalty. Sanchez looked decent coming off the bench. Now with a full week of practices under his belt, we like him to layout a susceptible Buccaneers secondary that has allowed the third most passing touchdowns and seventh most fantasy points per attempt. It’s also worth noting that Sanchez is a good runner and Kelly plays to those strengths by utilizing more of read-option approach. Feel free to pay the $6,400 and pimp out your roster elsewhere.
There are seven kickers priced higher than Case Keenum. Look, we know what we’re getting: we’re getting a bad offense on the road with a backup quarterback that hasn’t started a game since Week 17 of 2014. By the way, he scored 17 FanDuel points in that game. The Ravens have allowed 21.7 points per game to quarterbacks, second most, and their 18 touchdowns rank fifth. But none of that matters. All that matters is that Keenum will cost you just $4,800. He’ll return greater than 2x value with 150 yards and a touchdown. Should he luck into a pair of touchdowns and avoid that many interceptions, he’ll return 3x value with ease. That, of course, still means only 14.4 points. But since you’ll be charged just eight percent of the cap to acquire his services, the rest of your pimped out roster will make up for it.
Running Backs
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Charcandrick West | $7100 | KC@SD | 34.1 | Karlos Williams | $5700 | BUF@NE | 1.6 |
Devonta Freeman | $9100 | IND@ATL | 25 | Chris Johnson | $6800 | CIN@ARI | 1.3 |
Lamar Miller | $7400 | DAL@MIA | 18.3 | Ronnie Hillman | $6200 | DEN@CHI | 1.2 |
Todd Gurley | $9200 | STL@BAL | 13.5 | Justin Forsett | $6900 | STL@BAL | 0.9 |
Adrian Peterson | $8900 | GB@MIN | 11.7 | Matt Jones | $6100 | WAS@CAR | 0.9 |
Jeremy Langford | $6700 | DEN@CHI | 10.9 | Giovani Bernard | $6300 | CIN@ARI | 0.8 |
Christopher Ivory | $7200 | NYJ@HOU | 8.9 | Darren Sproles | $5400 | TB@PHI | 0.4 |
DeMarco Murray | $7600 | TB@PHI | 8.6 | C.J. Anderson | $5700 | DEN@CHI | 0.3 |
Darren McFadden | $6800 | DAL@MIA | 7.6 | Jay Ajayi | $5200 | DAL@MIA | 0.3 |
Danny Woodhead | $6400 | KC@SD | 7.3 | Jeremy Hill | $6500 | CIN@ARI | 0.2 |
Jonathan Stewart | $7000 | WAS@CAR | 7 | Melvin Gordon | $6000 | KC@SD | 0.2 |
Latavius Murray | $6800 | OAK@DET | 7 | Theo Riddick | $5100 | OAK@DET | 0.2 |
LeGarrette Blount | $7300 | BUF@NE | 6.5 | Matt Forte | $7800 | DEN@CHI | 0.1 |
Marshawn Lynch | $8100 | SF@SEA | 4.8 | Brandon Bolden | $5900 | BUF@NE | 0.1 |
LeSean McCoy | $7500 | BUF@NE | 4.7 | Eddie Lacy | $5600 | GB@MIN | 0.1 |
Frank Gore | $6600 | IND@ATL | 3 | Thomas Rawls | $5600 | SF@SEA | 0.1 |
Doug Martin | $6600 | TB@PHI | 2.8 | Alfred Morris | $5400 | WAS@CAR | 0.1 |
James Starks | $6200 | GB@MIN | 2.2 | Charles Sims | $5200 | TB@PHI | 0.1 |
We’ll need to check in on his injury status before committing, but the fact that Marshawn Lynch, at a reasonable price tag of $8,100, was only on 4.8 percent of Thursday rosters means he might the GPP play of the week. He’s listed as questionable, just as he was last week, but we doubt he sits this one out. It’s also possible they keep him on pitch-count and pull him if the game, predictably, gets out of control. Of course, if the game gets out of control, as in a multiple score lead by the Seahawks, it’s likely thanks to Lynch.
One running back that’s guaranteed to get a full workload with no threat to his snap counts is Latavius Murray. It’s strange that the Thursday crowd would rather roll with someone like Danny Woodhead when, for just $400 more, you get an RB1 playing for a team that ranks 10th in both points scored and total yards. Coincidently, Murray ranks 10th overall among running backs in FanDuel scoring. He hasn’t reached the endzone in three straight weeks; luckily for him, the Lions have allowed more rushing touchdowns than any team in the league and pose no threat to slowing him down. For $6,800, there may not be a better value available in Week 11. Also, there’s this:
Latavius Murray leads the league in percentage of team red zone carries inside-20 (79.2%), inside-10 (100%), and inside-5 (100%).
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 19, 2015
In the bargain bin we have Theo Riddick, who should have had more impact last week but the Lions somehow kept the game in check and his services weren’t needed. The game script this week promises the same thing only we believe the Raiders will control the lead and Riddick will benefit from added passing downs. The Raiders have allowed 60 receptions (third most) to running backs and 462 receiving yards to go along with three touchdowns. There are a lot of good options this week in the running back department, but if you’re looking to cut against the crowd while reserving your cap space, Riddick’s $5,100 is worth consideration.
Wide Receivers
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Danny Amendola | $6100 | BUF@NE | 27.1 | Rishard Matthews | $6400 | DAL@MIA | 2.4 |
Julio Jones | $9100 | IND@ATL | 25.8 | Doug Baldwin | $5400 | SF@SEA | 2.2 |
Amari Cooper | $7200 | OAK@DET | 22.9 | Michael Floyd | $6400 | CIN@ARI | 1.7 |
Michael Crabtree | $6500 | OAK@DET | 19.8 | Golden Tate | $6200 | OAK@DET | 1.7 |
Mike Evans | $8000 | TB@PHI | 12.1 | John Brown | $5700 | CIN@ARI | 1.7 |
Larry Fitzgerald | $7400 | CIN@ARI | 12.1 | Ted Ginn Jr. | $5200 | WAS@CAR | 1.7 |
Jarvis Landry | $7200 | DAL@MIA | 11.1 | Marvin Jones | $5400 | CIN@ARI | 1.3 |
Eric Decker | $7000 | NYJ@HOU | 8.9 | Donte Moncrief | $6100 | IND@ATL | 1.2 |
Steve Johnson | $5600 | KC@SD | 8.9 | Cole Beasley | $5400 | DAL@MIA | 1 |
Calvin Johnson | $8100 | OAK@DET | 8 | Nate Washington | $5600 | NYJ@HOU | 0.9 |
Brandon LaFell | $6900 | BUF@NE | 7.3 | James Jones | $5200 | GB@MIN | 0.9 |
Stefon Diggs | $6700 | GB@MIN | 6.7 | DeSean Jackson | $6100 | WAS@CAR | 0.8 |
Dez Bryant | $8400 | DAL@MIA | 6.5 | Wes Welker | $5200 | STL@BAL | 0.8 |
Demaryius Thomas | $7700 | DEN@CHI | 6.5 | Terrance Williams | $5300 | DAL@MIA | 0.6 |
Sammy Watkins | $6600 | BUF@NE | 6.1 | Jamison Crowder | $5800 | WAS@CAR | 0.5 |
Tavon Austin | $6000 | STL@BAL | 4.8 | Andre Johnson | $5400 | IND@ATL | 0.5 |
Randall Cobb | $7100 | GB@MIN | 4.2 | Pierre Garcon | $6000 | WAS@CAR | 0.4 |
Davante Adams | $6800 | GB@MIN | 4.1 | Chris Givens | $4500 | STL@BAL | 0.4 |
T.Y. Hilton | $7200 | IND@ATL | 4 | Emmanuel Sanders | $7600 | DEN@CHI | 0.3 |
DeAndre Hopkins | $8900 | NYJ@HOU | 3.8 | Roddy White | $5400 | IND@ATL | 0.3 |
Brandon Marshall | $7900 | NYJ@HOU | 3.8 | Dontrelle Inman | $5000 | KC@SD | 0.3 |
Jordan Matthews | $6300 | TB@PHI | 3.8 | Torrey Smith | $5500 | SF@SEA | 0.2 |
A.J. Green | $8200 | CIN@ARI | 3.6 | Cecil Shorts | $5400 | NYJ@HOU | 0.2 |
Jeremy Maclin | $6300 | KC@SD | 3.5 | Mike Wallace | $5200 | GB@MIN | 0.2 |
Alshon Jeffery | $7500 | DEN@CHI | 3.2 | Robert Woods | $5100 | BUF@NE | 0.2 |
Kamar Aiken | $5900 | STL@BAL | 2.6 | Kenny Britt | $5300 | STL@BAL | 0.1 |
The Buffalo Bills will have 11 days to prepare for their divisional showdown with the Patriots on Monday night. This is a good thing for a healing Sammy Watkins Jr. The Patriots have allowed the fifth most receiving yards and third most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. We expect the Bills to fall behind and be forced into a lot of throwing. Watkins would have had a decent game last week, despite being on Revis island, but clearly he and Tyrod Taylor have some chemistry issues. A long week will surely fix those. For $6,600, it’ll be hard to find a higher ceiling.
We expect Dez Bryant’s exposure to be higher on Sunday than it was on Thursday. With Tony Romo back healthy, Bryant is back in the conversation as one of the best wide receivers available. The Dolphins look tough on paper but that’s more due to quality of competition than quality cornerback play. Let’s not forget that Allen Robinson, Brandon Marshall and Watkins have all had their way with this secondary. Another words, true WR1s slay them. It’s possible there’s a little rust in Romo’s first game back but Bryant is going to be the focal point. This might be the last week to get him on the cheap.
It doesn’t yield the results you would expect, but Golden Tate ranks 24th in targets among receivers. Obviously, Calvin Johnson is still the man on that offense, so while the Raiders attempt to figure him out, Tate should benefit from his usual single coverage against a secondary that has allowed the seventh most receiving yards and third most receptions to wide receivers. They’ve been stingy in the touchdown department but are otherwise an exploitable defense. This game features our highest/over under of the week at 49.5 points. Tate’s $6,200 is worth tournament consideration.
Tight Ends
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Greg Olsen | $6400 | WAS@CAR | 20.3 | Jacob Tamme | $5300 | IND@ATL | 2.2 |
Rob Gronkowski | $8400 | BUF@NE | 14.4 | Richard Rodgers | $5400 | GB@MIN | 1.3 |
Travis Kelce | $5700 | KC@SD | 6.9 | Martellus Bennett | $5200 | DEN@CHI | 1.3 |
Jordan Reed | $5800 | WAS@CAR | 6.7 | Crockett Gillmore | $5300 | STL@BAL | 1.1 |
Antonio Gates | $5900 | KC@SD | 5.5 | Coby Fleener | $5000 | IND@ATL | 0.8 |
Tyler Eifert | $6200 | CIN@ARI | 5.2 | Charles Clay | $5200 | BUF@NE | 0.8 |
Jason Witten | $5500 | DAL@MIA | 4.8 | Zach Ertz | $5200 | TB@PHI | 0.7 |
Eric Ebron | $5400 | OAK@DET | 3.9 | Brent Celek | $5300 | TB@PHI | 0.3 |
Jimmy Graham | $5800 | SF@SEA | 3.3 | Vernon Davis | $5000 | DEN@CHI | 0.3 |
Staying in Detroit, Eric Ebron has seen 18 targets over the Lions’ last three games which is second only to Johnson. This week he gets a Raiders defense that has allowed the third most points per game. Most of that came in the beginning of the season when they faced a slew of stud tight ends. We still like Ebron to find the endzone in a high-scoring contest. Also, between Johnson, Tate and Ebron, Matthew Stafford is worth a GPP bid.
We mentioned Zach Ertz had a touchdown called back last Sunday. He also led the team in targets and was Sanchez’s first look. The matchup doesn’t bode well defensively, as the Buccaneers have been average against tight ends. But with the Eagles offense catering towards a read-option attack, Ertz should be in line for healthy share of targets and scoring opportunities.
Defense
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Seattle Seahawks | $5400 | SF@SEA | 20 | New England Patriots | $4800 | BUF@NE | 3.9 |
Carolina Panthers | $4900 | WAS@CAR | 11.6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | $4000 | TB@PHI | 3.7 |
New York Jets | $4700 | NYJ@HOU | 9.3 | Arizona Cardinals | $4800 | CIN@ARI | 2.9 |
Philadelphia Eagles | $4900 | TB@PHI | 6.2 | Atlanta Falcons | $4600 | IND@ATL | 2.6 |
Kansas City Chiefs | $4400 | KC@SD | 4.9 | Miami Dolphins | $4700 | DAL@MIA | 1.5 |
St Louis Rams | $5000 | STL@BAL | 4.8 | Oakland Raiders | $4500 | OAK@DET | 1.4 |
Chicago Bears | $4200 | DEN@CHI | 4.3 | Dallas Cowboys | $4400 | DAL@MIA | 1 |
Denver Broncos | $5300 | DEN@CHI | 4.2 | Green Bay Packers | $4600 | GB@MIN | 0.8 |
Houston Texans | $4500 | NYJ@HOU | 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | $4700 | CIN@ARI | 0.5 |
This is a tough week to bet against the crowd defensively. The Seahawks, Panthers and Jets all line up in favorable game scripts. The Falcons also have a favorable situation. Matt Hasselbeck is a game manager and won’t take many risks, but it’s unlikely he drives up the score either.
If you want to completely punt this position and grab the cheapest option on the board, the Buccaneers might luck into a few sacks and a possible pick-six. As much as we like Sanchez, he is prone to throwing the ball to defenders.