Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Last week, Todd Gurley demonstrated the importance of knowing when to be a contrarian and when to join the crowd. We have to pick our spots and remember that there’s a difference between roster uniqueness and simply chasing players with low ownership. It’s possible to draft highly owned players and still create uniqueness within our rosters by using lesser owned combinations. This is where stacking a quarterback with two or more of his receivers can be so valuable.
In addition to roster uniqueness, it’s important to note the difference between being unique and selecting under-owned players. Maurile Tremblay wrote at length about that difference over on the Cracking FanDuel blog, in which he argues uniqueness, in terms of ownership percentages, doesn’t even matter.
Seeking out under-owned plays has been our practice all season long and we’ll continue in our stubborn ways. Just like with fades, we’ll never advocate going contrarian for the sake contrarianism. That said, we’ll have to leave our comfort zones a little bit. So be sure to protect your bankrolls and limit how much you invest as a contrarian.
The numbers presented in the tables below are taken from a $2 Thursday night GPP. We can use these exposure percentages to assist our ownership projections for Sunday/Monday GPPs. Doing so increases our accuracy and provides a clearer picture of groupthink—something we’ll almost always try to avoid.
Quarterbacks
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Philip Rivers | $8500 | SD@BAL | 10.2 | Teddy Bridgewater | $6900 | MIN@CHI | 2.3 |
Andy Dalton | $8100 | CIN@PIT | 8.5 | Ben Roethlisberger | $8200 | CIN@PIT | 2.1 |
Cam Newton | $8000 | IND@CAR | 8.3 | Aaron Rodgers | $9000 | GB@DEN | 1.9 |
Carson Palmer | $8100 | ARI@CLE | 6.6 | Jay Cutler | $7300 | MIN@CHI | 1.6 |
Matt Ryan | $8000 | TB@ATL | 5.1 | Joe Flacco | $7400 | SD@BAL | 1.1 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | $7400 | NYJ@OAK | 4.7 | Peyton Manning | $7600 | GB@DEN | 1 |
Eli Manning | $7300 | NYG@NO | 3.9 | Russell Wilson | $7800 | SEA@DAL | 0.9 |
Drew Brees | $7900 | NYG@NO | 2.4 | Andrew Luck | $8800 | IND@CAR | 0.6 |
Over the last two weeks the Jets have faced a pair of exploitable defenses. Ryan Fitzpatrick ranks as QB5 during that span, reaching 4.3x and 2.9x value with FanDuel scores of 26.22 and 20.7. His salary has climbed for a third straight week but still provides value as the 12th most expensive quarterback. His offensive line has been one of the best in the league, allowing just four total sacks (the fewest), the net result of which is the sixth highest passer rating in the redzone. The Raiders aren’t a cake matchup, but they are easier to throw on than run on. Outside of Peyton Manning and Jay Cutler, they’ve allowed 21.4 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and haven’t faced a duo like Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. Fitzpatrick might not set the world on fire this weekend, but he makes for a nice tournament play.
For a $100 less and an equal amount of risk we have Eli Manning. We generally avoid players that have scored 26 percent of their fantasy points in one game, and have otherwise failed to crack more than 14 points per game. His floor is about as scary as it gets. But his outlier Week 5 performance where he thrashed a bad 49ers’ secondary for 441 yards and three touchdowns is why he’s a great contrarian play this week. The Saints, though tougher at home, are allowing a wonderful combination of yards and touchdowns to quarterbacks. Only the Ravens have allowed more FanDuel points per game. Manning’s salary is the lowest it has been all season; his matchup is the best it has been all season. Stack him with Odell Beckham Jr, and remember that outliers win tournaments.
Staying with the all-risk team, Joe Flacco might want to put on some Derek Carr tape and take down some notes on how to beat the Chargers. The Ravens have a huge advantage in this game with a west coast team traveling east after getting their tails handed to them by a division rival. We’ve seen Flacco and his receivers put up huge numbers more than once this season. This week lacks a solid bargain bin quarterback unless you want to take a chance on Nick Foles, so Flacco represents good value and the crowd won’t even consider him.
Running Backs
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Todd Gurley | $8100 | SF@STL | 40.2 | Adrian Peterson | $8900 | MIN@CHI | 2.1 |
Devonta Freeman | $9100 | TB@ATL | 17.1 | Ronnie Hillman | $6100 | GB@DEN | 1.8 |
Justin Forsett | $6900 | SD@BAL | 16.3 | Latavius Murray | $6900 | NYJ@OAK | 1.7 |
Chris Johnson | $7300 | ARI@CLE | 16.2 | Eddie Lacy | $6700 | GB@DEN | 1.6 |
Danny Woodhead | $6100 | SD@BAL | 11.4 | Jeremy Hill | $6300 | CIN@PIT | 1.6 |
Doug Martin | $7500 | TB@ATL | 10 | Antonio Andrews | $5300 | TEN@HOU | 1.2 |
Jonathan Stewart | $6600 | IND@CAR | 8.6 | Frank Gore | $6700 | IND@CAR | 0.9 |
Christopher Ivory | $7700 | NYJ@OAK | 5.7 | Duke Johnson | $5800 | ARI@CLE | 0.5 |
Le\'Veon Bell | $8900 | CIN@PIT | 5 | Charles Sims | $5100 | TB@ATL | 0.5 |
Matt Forte | $8200 | MIN@CHI | 4.8 | Shane Vereen | $5500 | NYG@NO | 0.4 |
Darren McFadden | $6400 | SEA@DAL | 4.4 | Orleans Darkwa | $5100 | NYG@NO | 0.3 |
Mark Ingram | $8000 | NYG@NO | 3.6 | C.J. Anderson | $6300 | GB@DEN | 0.2 |
Giovani Bernard | $6700 | CIN@PIT | 3.2 | Melvin Gordon | $6200 | SD@BAL | 0.2 |
Marshawn Lynch | $8300 | SEA@DAL | 2.7 | Dexter McCluster | $5200 | TEN@HOU | 0.2 |
Alfred Blue | $6500 | TEN@HOU | 2.4 |
It’s strange to consider that Mark Ingram has been the third highest scoring running back since Week 3 but yet the mass public has an aversion to him. He is easily doubling the amount of snaps Khiry Robinson is playing, and tripling that of C.J. Spiller. He leads the team in redzone looks by a wide margin. The problem, on the surface, is that Robinson eats into goal-to-go situations with Ingram getting just 50 percent of team carries inside the 5. Despite that, his five rushing touchdowns ties him with Jeremy Hill for the second most, he is 10th in rushing yards and sixth in receiving yards. The Giants were initially tough against the run but have given up 24.8 fantasy points per game over their last three.
The Cowboys defense has allowed more fantasy points per touch than all but two other teams. This despite having allowed only 566 rushing yards. Marshawn Lynch looked a lot like Marshawn Lynch last week with 27 carries for 122 yards and a touchdown. We always want elite players, with no threat to their workload, when their salaries and exposure are down.
We haven’t done the research on this, but there’s likely a psychological connection between fantasy owners that drafted a bust player in season-long and their aversion to using that player in daily. Jeremy Hill may or may not be experiencing some of that aversion given his ownership percentages over the year. Cleary, he has been a disappointment. The good news for us is that the crowd is off of him and his salary is as low as it has been since Week 9 of last year (the week he took over as the starter and tore apart the Jaguars). The Steelers have been tough to run on but Charcandrick West proved anything can happen when he pounded them for 110 yards and a score last week. Here’s the thing we need to consider with this game: the Bengals have a great offense and will move the ball without issue. Hill has out-snapped Giovani Bernard two of the last three weeks (Bernard still has more snaps in total over that time span). Hill has received nine redzone looks to Bernard’s 13. That looks like a slanted offense in favor of Bernard, but for $6,300, Hill is a sneaky, albeit risky, GPP play in a game with a lot of volume. Bernard, for $400 more, is definitely in play as well, especially if you think the Bengals will fall behind and forced to pass.
Along those same lines, C.J. Anderson has been one of the biggest busts of the football season. Some of his lack of production can be blamed on the offensive line, the rest of it falls on him. Regardless, he is consistently getting the most snaps at running back and has seen twice as many redzone looks over the last four games in comparison to Ronnie Hillman. It may be a longshot, but is it possible that a game between the Packers and Broncos turns into a defensive showdown? Maybe not. But the Packers can be exploited by pass-catching running backs, of which both Anderson and Hillman fit the bill. Anderson benefits as the goal line option so he makes for a risky GPP play.
Speaking of risk, in the bargain bin we find Antonio Andrews. This is nothing more than a cheap player used for roster-building flexibility, but for $5,300, and the promise of more playing time, Andrews has a decent matchup against the Texans. Be warned, of course, that the Titans offense isn’t reliable, especially with all of their offensive line issues. But all he needs is a couple of successful redzone carries to hit value.
Wide Receivers
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Stefon Diggs | $6700 | MIN@CHI | 29.5 | Amari Cooper | $7500 | NYJ@OAK | 3.8 |
Keenan Allen | $8000 | SD@BAL | 12.8 | Travis Benjamin | $6300 | ARI@CLE | 3.8 |
Steve Smith | $6700 | SD@BAL | 11.7 | Michael Floyd | $4900 | ARI@CLE | 3.8 |
Alshon Jeffery | $7700 | MIN@CHI | 11.2 | Donte Moncrief | $6400 | IND@CAR | 3.6 |
Martavis Bryant | $7200 | CIN@PIT | 11 | Michael Crabtree | $5700 | NYJ@OAK | 3.5 |
Julio Jones | $9200 | TB@ATL | 10.1 | Kendall Wright | $5900 | TEN@HOU | 3.4 |
James Jones | $6200 | GB@DEN | 9.2 | Willie Snead | $5800 | NYG@NO | 3.3 |
Larry Fitzgerald | $7700 | ARI@CLE | 9 | Brandin Cooks | $6800 | NYG@NO | 3 |
Antonio Brown | $8400 | CIN@PIT | 8.9 | Demaryius Thomas | $8100 | GB@DEN | 2.5 |
DeAndre Hopkins | $9000 | TEN@HOU | 7.7 | Randall Cobb | $7600 | GB@DEN | 2.3 |
A.J. Green | $8200 | CIN@PIT | 7.5 | Rueben Randle | $5600 | NYG@NO | 1.7 |
Mike Evans | $7800 | TB@ATL | 7.4 | Steve Johnson | $5900 | SD@BAL | 1.4 |
Brandon Marshall | $8300 | NYJ@OAK | 7 | Emmanuel Sanders | $7800 | GB@DEN | 1.2 |
Eric Decker | $6400 | NYJ@OAK | 6.1 | Anquan Boldin | $6000 | SF@STL | 0.7 |
Nate Washington | $5400 | TEN@HOU | 6.1 | Doug Baldwin | $5500 | SEA@DAL | 0.6 |
John Brown | $6700 | ARI@CLE | 5.7 | Roddy White | $5200 | TB@ATL | 0.6 |
Marvin Jones | $5400 | CIN@PIT | 5.7 | Eddie Royal | $5100 | MIN@CHI | 0.6 |
Ted Ginn Jr. | $5300 | IND@CAR | 4.6 | Mike Wallace | $5300 | MIN@CHI | 0.5 |
Odell Beckham Jr | $8700 | NYG@NO | 4.4 | Davante Adams | $5300 | GB@DEN | 0.4 |
Tavon Austin | $5300 | SF@STL | 4.2 | Marquess Wilson | $5000 | MIN@CHI | 0.2 |
T.Y. Hilton | $7700 | IND@CAR | 4.1 | Kenny Britt | $5000 | SF@STL | 0.1 |
It’s odd that Andy Dalton is the second most popular quarterback on Thursday but A.J. Green falls all the way to 11th among receivers. His salary of $8,200 is anything but prohibitive, and his ceiling against the Steelers is almost impossible to ignore. He’ll likely see more exposure in the Sunday Million, but not enough to warrant a fade. He’s a great tournament play.
Nate Washington exploded in garbage time last week with Cecil Shorts sidelined. Shorts has been ruled out this Sunday, awarding Washington the role as WR2. His 6.1 percent exposure will grow as a result, but it doesn’t matter. The Titans rank 30th against team’s second wide receiver per Football Outsiders. Since taking over in Week 4, Brian Hoyer is our third ranked quarterback in points scored, giving us confidence that he’ll be able to take advantage of single coverage while the Titans’ defense spends all afternoon trying to stop DeAndre Hopkins.
We’ve already plugged a Giants stack featuring Odell Beckham Jr His seasonal rank is disappointing, especially for those that drafted him in the first round last summer. But a date with the Saints is all he needs to stoke is stock. In the meantime, we’ll happily take advantage of his salary while it’s down, and fade the crowd while we’re at it. The Saints passing defense isn’t as exploitable as years past, but Beckham is matchup proof so long as his quarterback can find him.
While the crowd is all over Keenan Allen, Steve Johnson represents the value play. His $5,900 salary buys us a piece of the Chargers offense and what may be the highest scoring game of the week. He ranks fourth in team targets even after missing a pair of games. We especially like his value should Antonio Gates be limited.
Tight Ends
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Tyler Eifert | $6000 | CIN@PIT | 18.5 | Delanie Walker | $5400 | TEN@HOU | 3 |
Greg Olsen | $6400 | IND@CAR | 12.2 | Jimmy Graham | $6100 | SEA@DAL | 2.3 |
Ladarius Green | $5300 | SD@BAL | 9 | Crockett Gillmore | $5000 | SD@BAL | 1.3 |
Martellus Bennett | $5700 | MIN@CHI | 5.8 | Antonio Gates | $5900 | SD@BAL | 1.2 |
Gary Barnidge | $6300 | ARI@CLE | 4.3 | Richard Rodgers | $5000 | GB@DEN | 1.2 |
Benjamin Watson | $5400 | NYG@NO | 3.8 | Kyle Rudolph | $4900 | MIN@CHI | 0.8 |
Jason Witten | $5500 | SEA@DAL | 3.7 | Heath Miller | $5000 | CIN@PIT | 0.5 |
We don’t want to get too carried away with the Titans/Texans contest, but Delanie Walker is, once again, under-owned. Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen and Julius Thomas have shown how exploitable the Texans defense is against tight ends, combining for 19 catches, 254 yards and three touchdowns. Jordan Cameron wasn’t needed last week otherwise he would have further proved the point. Walker may not be on the same level as two of those players, but he trails only Kendall Wright in team targets (by one) and has the most redzone looks over their last three games. We can afford his $5,400 salary.
Crockett Gillmore has the second most team targets since returning from injury. We’re still waiting for him to prove that Week 2 wasn’t an outlier. But like we’ve mentioned, outliers win tournaments. We’re all over this game and want as much exposure as possible. If you choose to fade Chargers’ tight ends, Gillmore makes for a nice pivot.
Defense
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
Player |
Salary |
Game |
Own % |
St Louis Rams | $5100 | SF@STL | 27.2 | Green Bay Packers | $4800 | GB@DEN | 3.6 |
Arizona Cardinals | $5400 | ARI@CLE | 8.1 | Minnesota Vikings | $4700 | MIN@CHI | 2.8 |
Carolina Panthers | $4800 | IND@CAR | 7.7 | Tennessee Titans | $4500 | TEN@HOU | 2.5 |
New York Jets | $4800 | NYJ@OAK | 7.5 | Houston Texans | $4700 | TEN@HOU | 2.4 |
Seattle Seahawks | $5200 | SEA@DAL | 6.8 | New York Giants | $4400 | NYG@NO | 2 |
Atlanta Falcons | $4800 | TB@ATL | 4.1 | San Francisco 49ers | $4000 | SF@STL | 1.7 |
Denver Broncos | $4700 | GB@DEN | 4.1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | $4600 | CIN@PIT | 0.5 |
As usual, fading the chalk play at defense is a tricky look this week. The Texans hosting a bad Titans team that features no running game and virtually no play-makers look like a nice contrarian option, but only if we can confirm that J.J. Watt is active. As mentioned, the Titans offensive line is in shuffle mode so there should be sacks aplenty.
If you want to totally punt the position and save some cap space, the 49ers are for you. They’re on the road against the Rams in clash of horrible offenses. Even though St. Louis is favored by 9.5 points, the over/under of this one is the only below 40. Here’s to hoping Nick Foles makes a few terrible mistakes.