The Contrarian: FanDuel Week 1

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As an answer to “The Fade,” this space will be dedicated to identifying unpopular plays that can still be profitable. And just like with fades, there’s a method to being contrarian. We’ll never advocate going against the grain in the name of being different. Doing so is bad process, which is laid out in the introduction to both of these ideologies.

The value of going against the grain in tournaments exists solely in roster uniqueness. Without uniqueness, it is virtually impossible to win a large GPP. It’s also impossible to win a GPP without lots of points. In what follows we’ll take ownership percentages from FanDuel’s $100K Thursday NFL Snap. This data gives us an idea of which players the early crowd is favoring. In turn, we can pivot towards lesser owned players with similar potential, in the hopes of spacing ourselves from the majority.

Quarterbacks

Per usual, Carson Palmer is being ignored by the crowd. His salary of $7,700 is certainly a turnoff, as his is injury history. But a healthy Palmer is a one we want in our lineups. Last year, from Week 6 to Week 10, he was the 10th highest scoring quarterback. He opens up against a bad Saints defense, with several playmakers at his disposal. His exposure and potential ceiling is exactly what we’re looking for in tournaments.  

We always want a part of high-scoring games, especially between division rivals on opening night. Eli Manning isn’t cheap but the fact that the crowd is off of him means he’s valuable. The Cowboys defense won’t show much improvement from last year, at least not in the early stages of the season, and with Orlando Scandrick out Manning will have no trouble finding an opening. Vegas likes this game enough to give an over/under of 51.5 points. There will be no shortage of scoring on Sunday night.

While Tyrod Taylor and his discounted service has everyone’s eye, Jameis Winston, and his $6,900 salary, is flying under the radar. The Titans secondary is one we’ll target every week. Even if there’s some uncertainty surrounding Winston and how he’ll will perform in his first start as a rookie, he has a trio of large targets and a collection of pass-catching running backs to bail him out. He’s the ultimate contrarian play, assuming the crowd ignores him on Sunday like they did on Thursday.  

Running Backs

If you choose to stay away from Palmer, you might want to consider Andre Ellington. There will always be workload concerns, along with goal line concerns, but he should benefit as a pass-catcher who is always a threat for a big play. Conversely, the Saints defense is always a threat to allow a big play.

In that same game, the crowd appears to be afraid of Mark Ingram. Perhaps the threat of a negative game script has them squeamish, which is fair. But he is still going to get the majority of carries and there’s no obvious threat of him losing goal line touches. The Interactive Value Chart projects him to be as the 11th-highest scoring running back for Week 1.

The crowd will be eternally spooked by injuries. LeSean McCoy was on just 0.8 percent of rosters. That may change for Sunday but we’re willing to bet he’s one of the least owned, and highly talented, running backs in DFS this week. Let’s not forget that his situation has a positive correlation for running back production. The Bills defense is one of the best in the league and they are playing at home. McCoy is going to see a ton of volume both as a runner and a pass-catcher, meaning he won’t be erased by games script. Mixing him with Taylor could make for a fun Sunday, especially considering the Colts inability to stop running backs. His salary is less desirable, and all the more reason to believe the crowd will stay away.

Risky plays win tournaments. Rashad Jennings, despite his friendly salary, is a risky play. We always want to avoid crowded backfields, and there may be none more crowded than the Giants backfield, but Jennings is at least listed as the starter. The crowd is going to fade him despite his matchup. We think he finds the end zone and sees plenty of work up and down the field in a high-scoring contest.

In the bargain bin, we find Ryan Mathews. You’ll want a piece of the Eagles offense in just about every week. The crowd is going to chase DeMarco Murray, as they should, but Mathews proved in the preseason that he has plenty of snaps coming his way. He looks to be the goal line back while Murray carries the team down the field. And since Chip Kelly runs a no huddle more often than not, it’s always possible Mathews stays on the field for an entire series. All he needs to hit tournament value of 3x is 17.7 points. That may look like a tall order, but with this offense, it’s well within reach.

If you’re into base jumping, then you’ll love Benny Cunningham. The matchup is tough but the price and opportunity are there. We won’t expect the greatest show on turf against the Seahawks on Sunday, but we won’t expect Nick Foles to Peyton Manning his way to a victory either. Okay, that’s a terrible example. And Cunningham is a tough play, but he doesn’t need much to hit value thanks to a $5,100 price tag.

Wide Receivers

There are few things we need to watch for Sunday morning. The first is whether or not Mike Evans is going to play. If the answer is yes, it’s likely the crowd still forgets about him and nothing changes. If the answer is no, then we should have Vincent Jackson in every lineup. In fact, if Evans is cleared, it’s possible Jackson ends up being less owned, despite what the Thursday numbers say. Either way, one of these two players should be in your lineup.

Odell Beckham Jr. is going to get all the attention from DFS players and NFL defenders alike. Meanwhile, Rueben Randle will be quietly soaking up targets and probably a touchdown or two. His $5,300 salary makes him one of the best values in Week 1.

Guess who’s back together again? Yeah, James Jones and Aaron Rodgers. While the crowd has made Davante Adams the highest owned player, Jones is floating third on the depth chart with a bottom floor salary of $4,500. Remember that time he scored 14 touchdowns in a season? Yeah.

Of all the receiving options Marcus Mariota has at his disposal, none may see more targets and receptions than Kendall Wright on Sunday. He’ll be forgotten by almost everyone but we can’t ignore how his well his skill-set blends with Mariota’s. There are a lot of good options within the $5,500-$6,000 price range. None may see more volume than Wright. Touchdowns aren’t his specialty, to be sure, but if he slips in for one he’ll easily come close to tournament value.

Roddy White is just a few weeks removed from surgery but is practicing in full. Where Julio Jones’s production may suffer due to the pressure sure to be allowed by the offensive line, White will thrive. Matt Ryan is going to have defenders in his face all night so he’ll be looking for quick throws and dump-offs. White’s age dictates short-to-medium yardage routes, perfect for said quick throws and dump-offs. Since the Falcons will have to utilize their tight ends as blockers, that leaves him as the primary receiver, especially in the red zone. We’d be a lot happier if his salary wasn’t $7,600, but considering he might catch eight passes, we’ll be happy to plug him in as a fine and dandy contrarian play.

Tight Ends

Injuries to the Vikings offensive line are cause for concern. In Teddy we trust, of course, but should the pressure come tumbling down, he’ll need a quick answer. Enter Kyle Rudolph. Without question the 49ers defense is as vulnerable as it has ever been. Rudolph, though in a crowded mix of receiving options, stands out as an end zone threat and mid-field check-down for Bridgewater.

The same can be said for Larry Donnell. We’re expecting lots of points between the Cowboys and Giants, and even though Manning has no shortage of weapons, Donnell has proven he is a reliable end zone target. His $5,300 salary will keep the crowds away for the most part.  

The Baltimore Ravens primary receiver is 36-years-old and barely 5’9”. No offense to Steve Smith, but his best days are behind him. Their next best receiver is Justin Forsett, who will benefit greatly from Marc Trestman’s offense. So too, should Crockett Gillmore. Whether or not he gets the Martellus Bennett treatment remains to be seen. But he does get the benefit of TE1 on the Ravens depth chart. We get the benefit of the crowd not even knowing who he is, and his salary being just $4,700. It wouldn’t take much for him to score 14.1 points and reach tournament value.

The threat of Evans not being able to play provides an immediate and underappreciated boost to Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The 6’5” 262 pound phenom will be relied upon by Winston throughout the game should Evans not play. Even if he does play, Seferian-Jenkins still checks in as one of the best offensive weapons the Buccaneers have and will always be a touchdown threat. You could do a lot worse for $4,700.

Defense

If you’re not going to play the Jets or the Dolphins defense, and are keen enough to not pay up for the Seahawks, you should consider the Eagles. Obviously, we’d rather target games with lower point totals, but the front seven of Philly will get to Ryan a lot. Sacks should be in high order. And where there are a lot of sacks there are sure to be a few turnovers.

For $4,200, you can get a home team and an over/under of 41 points. There’s nothing sexy about the Jaguars. They are, in fact, expected to lose. But the Panthers offense is in shambles. An upset in Jacksonville wouldn’t be surprising. Upsets of this nature usually require a defensive score, and always require turnovers and sacks.

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