 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 | Introducing the 5-Second Primer - FootballguysAdam Harstad - September 18, 2018The 5-Second Primer will help you spend less time and win more games. You can set it up in just five minutes. Here's how. |
 | Introducing the Waiver & Trade Dominator - FootballguysAdam Harstad - September 18, 2018The Waiver & Trade Dominator will help you manage your roster quicker and better than ever. Here's how. |
 |
|
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
 |
|
 | Regression Alert: Longer TimescalesAdam Harstad - December 30, 2017I've said often that regression operates best over longer timescales. Let's see that in action. |
 | Fantasy, in Theory: May the Best Team WinAdam Harstad - December 30, 2017Musings on the unlikelihood of success. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Buy Good PlayersAdam Harstad - December 23, 2017Is a certain position the key to success in dynasty? Only if "talented" is a position. |
 | Regression Alert: Do Quarterbacks Regress?Adam Harstad - December 23, 2017After a poor showing this year, I'm forced to ask... are quarterbacks immune to the forces of regression? |
 | Fantasy, in Theory: Flawed MetricsAdam Harstad - December 16, 2017Some measures of player quality are terrible, awful, no good, very bad. Other measures are worse. |
 | Regression Alert: A Temporary ReprieveAdam Harstad - December 16, 2017Beginning to close the books as the season winds down. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Sometimes It's Wrong to be RightAdam Harstad - December 9, 2017Sometimes it's wrong to be right. Or, depending on your perspective, perhaps it's right to be wrong. |
 | Regression Alert: Special PlayersAdam Harstad - December 9, 2017Does regression really come for everyone eventually? Or are some players immune? |
 | Regression Alert: Massive SamplesAdam Harstad - December 2, 2017Regression operates more consistently the more chances you give it. So let's give it a ton of chances and see what happens. |
 | Fantasy, in Theory: The Law of PowerAdam Harstad - December 2, 2017Winning isn't a matter of having good players. It's a matter of having great ones. |
 | Regression Alert: Betting Against WentzAdam Harstad - November 25, 2017Regression Alert revisits the site of its greatest defeat in search of redemption. |
 | Regression Alert: Weighted CoinsAdam Harstad - November 18, 2017You know what fantasy football needs? More coin-flip analogies! |
 | Fantasy, in Theory: It's Okay Not to Know ThingsAdam Harstad - November 18, 2017A lot of knowledge can get you in trouble where a little knowledge would go a long way. |
 | Regression Alert: Picking Up the PiecesAdam Harstad - November 11, 2017What does it mean when things go wrong? |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Roster DecompositionAdam Harstad - November 11, 2017Fantasy football is not just about your starters. Your bench deserves some attention, too. |
 | Fantasy, in Theory: Elliott Will Play (And That's Probably Bad)Adam Harstad - November 4, 2017Unfortunately for Ezekiel Elliott owners, Ezekiel Elliott will play this week. |
 | Regression Alert: Once More Unto The BreachAdam Harstad - November 4, 2017Yards per touchdown ratios. I'm pretty sure they're meaningful despite early evidence to the contrary! |
 | Regression Alert: Still Wary of Yards Per CarryAdam Harstad - October 28, 2017Has nearly half a season given yards per carry time to stabilize a little bit? I bet not! |
| Dynasty, in Theory: The Most Accurate Rankings. Ever.Adam Harstad - October 28, 2017I personally guarantee that this will prove to be the most accurate set of dynasty quarterback rankings you have ever seen. |
 | Fantasy, in Theory: This Is Not Amari CooperAdam Harstad - October 21, 2017A representation of a thing is not the thing it represents. |
 | Regression Alert: Touch-Ups and TouchdownsAdam Harstad - October 18, 2017Regression affects everything, but it does not affect everything equally. This week: touchdowns follow yards, (but yards don't follow back). |
| Regression Alert: Passing Touchdowns, Too, Must PassAdam Harstad - October 14, 2017Even Hall of Famers can only throw so many touchdowns per yard gained. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: You're Older Than You've Ever BeenAdam Harstad - October 14, 2017How are rebuilding teams supposed to deal with the fact that their best assets are older than they've ever been... and now they're even older? |
 | Regression Alert: Revisiting Preseason ExpectationsAdam Harstad - October 7, 2017At what point should we stop caring about what we thought about players before the season began? |
 | Fantasy, in Theory: If We Aren't All Playing, Then What's The Point?Adam Harstad - October 7, 2017Measuring the quality of measurements of quality. |
 | Regression Alert: When Yards Per Target is Off TargetAdam Harstad - September 30, 2017A lot of the deviation in yards per target is explained by a receiver's role. Most of the rest of it is explained by random chance. That last bit is ripe for regression. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Value is BasicAdam Harstad - September 30, 2017What is at the base of player value, and how does it impact the way we run our team? |
 | Fantasy, in Theory: Newton's Laws, (and I Don't Mean Cam)Adam Harstad - September 23, 2017430 years ago, Sir Isaac Newton published his Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica and gave us a template to dominate our fantasy leagues. |
| Regression Alert: Be Very Wary of Yards per CarryAdam Harstad - September 21, 2017Yards per carry is one of the most-used stats when evaluating running backs. It... shouldn't be. |
| Dynasty, in Theory: Many Happy ReturnsAdam Harstad - September 16, 2017You shouldn't buy low and sell high because we're bad at knowing whose value will go up and whose will go down. Except for this guy. His is definitely going up. |
 | Regression Alert #1: Hunting for OutliersAdam Harstad - September 15, 2017Can we use a knowledge of history and statistics to sell high and buy low on players with minimal risk? We can. And we will. |
 | The Problem with Expert Mock DraftsAdam Harstad - August 24, 2017Expert Mocks, or Industry Mocks, can be fun and insightful tools... if you're careful not to fall for the wrong takeaways. |
| A Quick Guide to the Waiver and Trade DominatorAdam Harstad - August 12, 2017A quick guide to the Waiver and Trade Dominator, from getting it set up to digging into the deepest and most compelling features. |
| Ezekiel Elliott and How to Value Suspended PlayersAdam Harstad - August 7, 2017A quick and dirty trick for adjusting player values on the fly in the face of early-season suspensions or injuries. |
| A Quick Guide to the Lineup DominatorAdam Harstad - August 5, 2017A quick guide to the Lineup Dominator, from getting it set up to digging into the deepest and most compelling features. |
 | Skill, Luck, and ADPAdam Harstad - July 13, 2017Thoughts on how simply being average can be a path to success in fantasy football. |
 | How to Use MyFBGAdam Harstad - July 12, 2017MyFBG is an incredibly powerful and versatile tool for winning your leagues and reclaiming your free time. Here's a step-by-step guide to setting it up so you can start benefiting today. |
 | The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 11Adam Harstad - November 20, 2016A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge. |
 | The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 10Adam Harstad - November 12, 2016A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge. |
 | Fantasy, in Theory: Tiny EdgesAdam Harstad - November 12, 2016A few easy ways to chase extra fractions of a win throughout the season |
| The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 9Adam Harstad - November 6, 2016A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Age is Just a NumberAdam Harstad - November 6, 2016Musings on the importance of avoiding a false sense of certainty. |
 | Fantasy, in Theory: Stop Fixing Your RosterAdam Harstad - October 29, 2016Every team has holes. They probably won't sink you. Don't commit fantasy malpractice in the name of filling them. |
 | The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 8Adam Harstad - October 29, 2016A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge. |
 | The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 7Adam Harstad - October 22, 2016A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: No One is Worth Four FirstsAdam Harstad - October 22, 2016A rule of thumb for valuing top-end stars in dynasty leagues. |
 | Fantasy, in Theory: Bayes and BobAdam Harstad - October 15, 2016Using Bayesian Inference to improve our predictions, (and also: Bob Henry is pretty good). |
 | Dynasty Value Charts: Week 6Adam Harstad - October 15, 2016Dynasty value charts in both Standard and PPR scoring |
| The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 6Adam Harstad - October 14, 2016A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge. |
 | The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 5Adam Harstad - October 8, 2016A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge. |
 | Fantasy, in Theory: Revisiting Preseason ExpectationsAdam Harstad - October 8, 2016Comparing the reliability of early-season performance to average draft position when predicting scoring for the rest of the season. |
 | The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 4Adam Harstad - October 1, 2016A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge. |
| Dynasty, in Theory: A Thought Experiment to Ruin Your DayAdam Harstad - October 1, 2016Are your beliefs mutually incompatible? And if so, what do you do about it? Here's a simple thought experiment to potentially ruin your day. |
| Dynasty Value Charts: Week 4Adam Harstad - October 1, 2016Dynasty value charts in both Standard and PPR scoring |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: What Happens When You Assume?Adam Harstad - September 24, 2016Little changes in our underlying assumptions can result in big changes in our final results. |
 | The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 3Adam Harstad - September 22, 2016A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge. |
 | Fantasy in Theory: Fantasy is WeirdAdam Harstad - September 17, 2016There should be nothing quite as expected as an unexpected result. |
 | Dynasty Value Charts: Week 2Adam Harstad - September 16, 2016Dynasty value charts in both Standard and PPR scoring |
| The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 2Adam Harstad - September 16, 2016A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge. |
 | Getting the Most Out of a Footballguys SubscriptionAdam Harstad - August 31, 2016So you subscribed to Footballguys... now what? Here's a quick guide to getting the most out of your subscription. |
| Troubleshooting MyFBGAdam Harstad - August 31, 2016Simple steps for resolving issues with MyFBG, and contact information for support in case they fail. |
 | On Le'Veon Bell, Risk, and Substances of AbuseAdam Harstad - August 25, 2016Le'Veon Bell's recent suspension and appeal give us plenty of information about what kind of risks he presents going forward. But are we taking away the appropriate lessons? |
 | Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 16Adam Harstad - December 26, 2015Dynasty Value Charts for PPR and Standard scoring for both likely and unlikely 2016 Playoff Teams |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Random is RandomAdam Harstad - December 26, 2015On Finding the Noise in the Signal |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: Ageification, YouthificationAdam Harstad - December 26, 2015A long-term look at aging patterns at running back and wide receiver, and a discussion of expectations going forward. |
| Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 15Adam Harstad - December 19, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
| Dynasty, in Practice: If Not Streaming, Then What?Adam Harstad - December 19, 2015In real-world situations, playing matchups doesn't result in increased production. So what is the alternative? |
| Dynasty, in Theory: You'll Never Stand in the Same Stream TwiceAdam Harstad - December 19, 2015How effective is starting second-tier players against favorable matchups? |
| Dynasty, in Theory: On Being the Right SizeAdam Harstad - December 12, 2015Or: "Why You Shouldn't Drop Mike Evans Down a Mine Shaft" |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: Conditional Lineup RequestsAdam Harstad - December 12, 2015Discussing my favorite rule in fantasy football. |
 | Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 14Adam Harstad - December 11, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
 | Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 13Adam Harstad - December 5, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: Coaches are SmartAdam Harstad - November 29, 2015A defense of a profession that is frequently under fire. |
 | Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 12Adam Harstad - November 28, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: How to Buy a Championship at the Trade DeadlineAdam Harstad - November 26, 2015A step-by-step look at a foolproof method for buying a dynasty championship before the trade deadline. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: WYSINATIAdam Harstad - November 21, 2015In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. |
 | Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 11Adam Harstad - November 20, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
 | Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 10Adam Harstad - November 14, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Some Statistics are Better than OthersAdam Harstad - November 14, 2015When evaluating player performance, it's only natural to emphasize some statistics over others. Let's make sure that we're emphasizing the right ones. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Trash Money RecordsAdam Harstad - November 7, 2015A look at DeAndre Hopkins and other garbage-time superstars. |
| Dynasty, in Practice: Dented Aluminum CansAdam Harstad - November 7, 2015A case for buying your groceries at a discount. |
 | Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 9Adam Harstad - November 6, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Stop Buying Low and Selling HighAdam Harstad - October 31, 2015There are better ways to build your roster. |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: Touchdowns Really Do Follow Yards. (Yards Still Don't Follow Back.)Adam Harstad - October 31, 2015A re-examination of the hypothesis that touchdowns follow yards. |
| Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 8Adam Harstad - October 30, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: A Trading TriptychAdam Harstad - October 24, 2015A trio of trade questions that serve as a launching point for a discussion of trading philosophies. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Where Analytics FailAdam Harstad - October 23, 2015Analytics is a very powerful way to gain new insight into the world. Sometimes it goes wrong. |
 | Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 7)Adam Harstad - October 22, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: Touchdowns Follow Yards, (But Yards Don't Follow Back)Adam Harstad - October 17, 2015A real-world example of "regression to the mean" at work. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Playing to Win the Game?Adam Harstad - October 16, 2015Herm Edwards famously said that you play to win the game. Do you? Should you? |
| Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 6)Adam Harstad - October 15, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Revisiting Preseason ExpectationsAdam Harstad - October 10, 2015Comparing the predictive power of preseason ADP to early-season performance. |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: Predicting Stretch PerformancesAdam Harstad - October 10, 2015Making predictions about order of finish over the final twelve weeks to evaluate after the season. |
 | Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts (Week 5)Adam Harstad - October 9, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: Power Laws. (They're Not What They Sound Like.)Adam Harstad - October 3, 2015Examining the distribution of player performance and making another case for concentrating value. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Pay Attention. Focus. Concentrate.Adam Harstad - October 3, 2015A simple mantra to aid in building a dominant team. |
| Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts (Week 4)Adam Harstad - October 1, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Winning the Informational Arms RaceAdam Harstad - September 26, 2015How to overcome fixed roster limits and increase the odds that you're holding tomorrow's breakout player today. |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: Creating a Cohesive Vision for Your RosterAdam Harstad - September 26, 2015How to use intentional roster management techniques to ensure that every part of your team is working in harmony. |
 | Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts (Week 3)Adam Harstad - September 24, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: Six Simple Rules for Trading Draft PicksAdam Harstad - September 18, 2015A look at six easy-to-apply heuristics for how to maximize value in trades involving rookie draft picks. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: So Money (and They Don't Even Know It)Adam Harstad - September 18, 2015Discussing the existence of a universal currency hidden inside superficially barter-based dynasty leagues. |
 | Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value ChartsAdam Harstad - September 18, 2015Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring. |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: How to Value Players in DynastyAdam Harstad - September 12, 2015A new method for estimating long-term player value in dynasty leagues. |
| Dynasty, in Theory: The Difference Between Contending and RebuildingAdam Harstad - September 8, 2015Using game theory and economics to explain the different preferences of rebuilding and contending teams. |
| Dynasty, in Practice: How do Quarterbacks Age?Adam Harstad - September 6, 2015An attempt to model quarterback aging patterns based on 30 years of historical data. |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: How do Tight Ends Age?Adam Harstad - September 6, 2015An attempt to model tight end aging patterns based on 30 years of historical data. |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: How Do Wide Receivers Age?Adam Harstad - September 5, 2015An attempt to model wide receiver aging patterns based on 30 years of historical data. |
 | Dynasty, in Practice: How Do Running Backs Age?Adam Harstad - September 5, 2015An attempt to model running back aging patterns based on 30 years of historical data. |
 | Unconventional Draft Strategy: The Week 1 ByeAdam Harstad - August 29, 2015A counterintuitve, (and borderline crazy), draft strategy to help boost your chances of winning a championship. |
 | Getting the Most Out of a Footballguys SubscriptionAdam Harstad - August 16, 2015So you subscribed to Footballguys... now what? Here's a quick guide to getting the most out of your subscription. |
| We're Probably Thinking about Age the Wrong WayAdam Harstad - August 10, 2015Do current aging models accurately depict what really happens in the NFL? Is there perhaps a better way? |
 | How Much Does Tougher Coverage Impact a Receiver?Adam Harstad - August 7, 2015A look at how tougher coverages impact a receiver's production, with a special eye towards DeAndre Hopkins in the wake of the Arian Foster injury news. |
 | Another Perspective on Running Back WorkloadsAdam Harstad - August 6, 2015Examining historical evidence to see if there's any hope for high-workload running backs going forward. |
 | Calculating New Positional BaselinesAdam Harstad - August 4, 2015Taking real-world worst starter baselines and generalizing them to other league setups. |
 | Dynasty, in Theory: Is PPR Scoring Suitable for Dynasty?Adam Harstad - August 2, 2015Does PPR scoring do a good job of rewarding good players at the expense of bad ones in dynasty leagues? |
 | A Better Way to Determine VBD BaselinesAdam Harstad - July 31, 2015A rigorous analysis of what, exactly, "worst starter" really means in actual fantasy leagues. |
| Rethinking VBDAdam Harstad - July 29, 2015Revisiting the method in which we calculate a player's value. |
 | Lies, Damned Lies, and Big ReceiversAdam Harstad - April 8, 2015Understanding statistical inference and applying that knowledge to the WR size debate. |
 | It's Not the Size, (It's How You Use It)Adam Harstad - March 4, 2015Some opening thoughts on the importance of size when evaluating receivers. |
Win. Your. League.
