Matchup Analysis: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Jets 23, Dolphins 19

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New York Jets Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jets Offense11.1 (-11.3) (31)64 (-46) (31)146 (-93) (32)
Dolphins Defense34.0 (+11.6) (32)161 (+49) (31)254 (+14) (20)

Miami Dolphins Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Dolphins Offense11.0 (-11.4) (32)66 (-45) (30)189 (-50) (30)
Jets Defense26.4 (+4.0) (25)95 (-15) (10)262 (+23) (24)

Jets Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Le’Veon Bell may ultimately go down as one of the biggest free agency flops in NFL history. Suffice it to say that his lengthy Pittsburgh hold hasn’t done him any favors. Through 7 games as a Jet, Bell has reached 70 yards on the ground only once, with just a single touchdown along the way. Unsurprisingly, his 3.2 yards per rush is the worst of his six-season career. It’s an open secret that coach Adam Gase wasn’t a proponent of bringing him in at $53 million, and the football world is now seeing why. Bell simply hasn’t looked capable of overcoming the Jets’ shaky offense and producing at a high level. He works behind one of the league’s worst front lines, which badly needs a talent infusion in the offseason. And with the pass game struggling so badly, defenses are focusing extra attention on Bell, pinching off the running lanes he saw so often in Pittsburgh. All told, he’s only a volume-dependent RB2 in fantasy right now, and it’s hard to find much optimism for a turnaround. His new situation just isn’t nearly as attractive as his old one.

Unsurprisingly, the Dolphins have fielded one of football’s weakest run defenses here in 2019. Mired in a full-on rebuild, they’re mostly just experimenting with potential future pieces at this point. As a result, they’ve allowed the league’s second-most yards on the ground, with 5 opposing runners already topping 100. Apart from breakout middle linebacker Raekwon McMillan, this is a front seven that demands serious personnel attention in the offseason. The team’s line rotation lacks a stout, run-stuffing presence, which makes life even harder on the subpar linebacker group. That leads to far too many running lanes opening through the line, and lots of open-field room to turn solid gains into big ones. Le’Veon Bell has produced next to nothing thus far as a Jet, but this week presents his best chance yet at a breakout.

Jets Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Dolphins defense.

Another week, another shaky, inefficient showing from 22-year-old Sam Darnold. Four starts into his second NFL season, Darnold has posted one fantastic game (338 yards and 2 touchdowns against Dallas) and three thoroughly ineffective ones (4.7 yards per attempt, 160 per game). The youngster continues to flash a live arm, driving hard throws downfield with a willingness to make things happen. But he’s yet to develop any poise against pressure, which results in far too many limp and off-target throws into traffic. At the moment, it’s hard to trust him to do anything well but occasionally put the ball up for deep threat Robby Anderson. In fact, the pair should have hooked up for a 92-yard score last week, but Jaguars cornerback Tre Herndon interfered intentionally to stop it. There’s definitely a hint of upside in that connection, which has topped 75 yards in 4 of their last 8 games together. But beyond that, there’s little reason to look at this passing game for fantasy purposes. Even against the Dolphins’ bottom-tier defense, there’s a terrifying floor in play.

The Dolphins pass defense was in the running for league’s worst even with franchise cornerstones Minkah Fitzpatrick and Xavien Howard on the field. With Fitzpatrick in Pittsburgh and Howard now on injured reverse, they’ll likely take the trophy home. The talent-starved secondary lacks speed and ball skills, with a wide variety of bodies taking up snaps but providing little resistance. (New trade acquisition Aqib Talib remains on injured reserve and won’t be eligible to suit up until Week 15.) Opposing passers are completing 67% of their throws in this matchup, good for a stout 8.9 yards per attempt, with 18 touchdowns across 7 games. And they get little help from the pass rush, which sits 31st in pressure rate and rarely disrupts anyone. It’s hard to see any form of help on the way, so this looks like a prime breakout spot for the struggling Sam Darnold and company.

Dolphins Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Jets defense.

The Dolphins continued to wave the white flag this week, trading away explosive yet limited running back Kenyan Drake. In doing so, they’re handing over most of the run game to second-year man Mark Walton, who’s looked serviceable in his brief audition. He’s averaged 4.2 yards per rush, well ahead of what Drake and Kalen Ballage were producing before. Still, Walton’s upside is firmly capped in this toothless offense. He runs behind arguably the league’s worst front line (currently ranked 29th by our Matt Bitonti), and he’s done no favors by the team’s anemic passing game. And when the Dolphins do work their way into scoring position, Walton cedes goal-line work to Ballage, who’s vultured two recent touchdowns. All told, neither projects to much further production, even with the modest boost in volume. There are simply too many factors working against their chances at week-to-week fantasy value.

New coordinator Gregg Williams, as he so often does, has instantly brought serious life to the Jets run defense. Williams bounces around the league as much as anyone, but routinely creates top-10 rushing units out of whole cloth wherever he goes. These Jets have allowed the league’s 10th-fewest ground yards and just the second-fewest per carry. Only Ezekiel Elliott has cleared 80 yards in this matchup, and last Sunday, Leonard Fournette was mostly neutralized on his way to just 76. Still, at the moment, there’s transition in the air. The team traded away former No. 6 pick Leonard Williams this week, and while he’d long underachieved as a Jet, he leaves a new hole in the depth chart up front. Even worse, prized free agent linebacker C.J. Mosley has been shut down for the next 5-6 weeks with his recurring groin injury. This group has gotten by nicely thus far on scheme, but replacements Blake Cashman and James Burgess have been shaky at best. The pressure is on tackles Quinnen Williams and Steve McClendon to control the trenches and keep the second level clean, or this impressive unit could backslide quickly.

Dolphins Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Jets defense.

To be fair, Ryan Fitzpatrick has looked somewhat passable over the past two weeks, throwing for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns. But this is still very much an “attack” that’s merely running out the clock on 2019. Fitzpatrick is rarely given time to throw downfield, forcing far too many rushed and off-target throws. Historically speaking, he tends to bleed turnovers and drive-killing misfires when that happens - he’s already thrown 7 picks over just 139 attempts this year. For many reasons, it’s unwise to project a breakout for the 36-year-old and his uninspiring group of weapons. If there’s any upside in this offense, it’s found in rookie wideout Preston Williams, who’s emerged as the clear-cut No. 1 option. The 6-foot-5 youngster has flashed impressive ball skills and leads the team with 51 targets. But he’s turned them into just 51 yards a game, and he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1. He’s the best and brightest this unit offers, but is no more than a desperation flex play in this near-hopeless situation.

The Jets pass defense isn’t exactly a prohibitive matchup, but it’s certainly tightened up over the past four weeks. Over that span, opposing quarterbacks have averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt, and only 2 receivers (both last week) have cleared 70 yards on the day. They’ve been especially strong up the slots and seams, where Brian Poole has broken out as one of 2019’s strongest cover men. He gets quality help from safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye, who make up arguably the league’s best young duo. There are vulnerabilities on the outside, though, as Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts have underperformed for much of the year. Last week, the Jaguars’ Chris Conley (4 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown) and D.J. Chark (6 for 79 and 1) sprang open for numerous downfield plays. That’s where opposing offenses have had success attacking, so it’s safe to assume Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins will concentrate their attention there. But recent play suggests there won’t be much success elsewhere. The inside stays mostly locked down, and opposing passers are struggling against the Jets’ stunt-heavy pass rush, which makes good use of marginal talent. This has quietly become a less-than-attractive fantasy date, and certainly doesn’t look like a breakout spot for the pitiful Dolphins.

Dolphins vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+5.1)28 (+5.1)29 (+5.8)29 (+5.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.0)14 (-1.0)20 (+0.5)15 (-0.7)
6Case Keenum59132516620410017.317.315.615.6
7Josh Allen56162620220432021.321.321.321.3
8Mason Rudolph7720362512100019.619.617.017.0

Sam Darnold (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5900)

6vs DAL62233233821510242420.623.6
7vs NE61113286042-100.20.2-2.7-1.7
8@ JAX612130218231-1015.815.815.615.6
9PROJ-Dodds20322411.51390.118.618.618.6 (H=43)18.6 (H=53)
9PROJ-Tremblay19322181.51.1240.116.816.816.8 (H=36)16.8 (H=44)
9PROJ-Bloom21332321.80.700018.118.118.1 (H=41)18.1 (H=51)

Dolphins vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+7.0)29 (+5.8)29 (+6.4)30 (+7.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-2.3)10 (-3.8)13 (-2.7)14 (-2.4)
6Adrian Peterson372311802218013.615.614.618.6
6Chris Thompson13312032802.
7Frank Gore3011550111106.
7Patrick DiMarco9140112703.
8James Conner64231451435021.024.022.527.0
8Benny Snell11513000001.

LeVeon Bell (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $7700)

6vs DAL511450111.03011.312.311.812.3
7vs NE571570041.0607.
8@ JAX52923053.01203.
9PROJ-Dodds20850.64.3300.216.320.618.5 (H=44)20.6 (H=49)
9PROJ-Tremblay19740.54.5320.114.218.716.5 (H=36)18.7 (H=41)
9PROJ-Bloom19720.53.0150.212.915.914.4 (H=28)15.9 (H=31)

Ty Montgomery (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $4500)

6vs DAL600033.01701.
7vs NE729010.0000.
8@ JAX600000.000000.00.0
9PROJ-Dodds170.11.070232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=2)
9PROJ-Tremblay1600.9701.32.21.8 (H=1)2.2 (H=1)
9PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bilal Powell (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

6vs DAL1215010.0000.
7vs NE413000.0000.
8@ JAX10411000.0001.
9PROJ-Dodds290.10.0001.51.51.5 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
9PROJ-Tremblay2110.10.2201.92.12.0 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
9PROJ-Bloom4130.10.0001.91.91.9 (H=1)1.9 (H=2)

Dolphins vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+5.1)23 (+3.3)26 (+4.3)24 (+3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+5.5)20 (+3.3)23 (+4.5)21 (+4.2)
6Terry McLaurin5774100200022.
6Kelvin Harmon1211800000.
7John Brown536583100014.319.316.819.3
7Cole Beasley31631610007.610.69.110.6
8JuJu Smith-Schuster5795103100016.321.318.824.3
8Diontae Johnson347584100014.419.416.919.4

Robby Anderson (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5500)

6vs DAL5785.0125100018.523.521.026.5
7vs NE5681.0100000121.52.0
8@ JAX5564.04300004.
9PROJ-Dodds3.4570.40008.111.59.8 (H=16)11.5 (H=24)
9PROJ-Tremblay3.5500.30006.810.38.6 (H=13)10.3 (H=20)
9PROJ-Bloom4.0640.50009.413.411.4 (H=21)13.4 (H=32)

Demaryius Thomas (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4000)

6vs DAL5054.06200006.
7vs NE4493.04200004.
8@ JAX3855.06300006.311.38.811.3
9PROJ-Dodds3.7540.30007.210.99.1 (H=19)10.9 (H=31)
9PROJ-Tremblay4.1560.4000812.110.1 (H=22)12.1 (H=37)
9PROJ-Bloom4.0520.30007119.0 (H=18)11.0 (H=31)

Jamison Crowder (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $5300)

6vs DAL5096.09800009.815.812.815.8
7vs NE4754.02600002.
8@ JAX4453.02400002.
9PROJ-Dodds4.5520.3000711.59.3 (H=16)11.5 (H=25)
9PROJ-Tremblay3.5400.30005.89.37.6 (H=11)9.3 (H=17)
9PROJ-Bloom5.0450.30006.311.38.8 (H=14)11.3 (H=25)

Vyncint Smith (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

6vs DAL811.0500000.
7vs NE1610.000000000.00.0
8@ JAX2542.010011302.
9PROJ-Dodds1.0110.1130232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
9PROJ-Tremblay0.9120.11302.132.6 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
9PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Dolphins vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.6)13 (-0.7)14 (-0.7)16 (-0.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-4.2)4 (-5.7)3 (-5.0)4 (-5.9)
6Jeremy Sprinkle54322402.
7Dawson Knox29522202.
8Vance McDonald60431901.

Chris Herndon (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4000)

6vs DAL000.000000.00.0
7vs NE000.000000.00.0
8@ JAX000.000000.00.0
9PROJ-Dodds1.7200. (H=3)4.3 (H=6)
9PROJ-Tremblay0.8100. (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
9PROJ-Bloom2.0270. (H=5)5.9 (H=10)

Ryan Griffin (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3400)

6vs DAL5233.02818.811.810.311.8
7vs NE5121.0100.
8@ JAX5844.066218.622.622.624.6
9PROJ-Dodds1.7170.12.343.2 (H=2)4.0 (H=6)
9PROJ-Tremblay0.880. (H=1)2.2 (H=2)
9PROJ-Bloom3.0290. (H=9)7.7 (H=20)

Dolphins vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23T (+2.2)23T (+2.2)31 (+2.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+1.6)23 (+1.6)26 (+2.2) (+0.0)
6Dustin Hopkins1222555.05.0
7Steve Hauschka3322111113.013.0
8Chris Boswell23339911.011.0

Sam Ficken (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

6vs DAL1133666.06.0
7vs NE0000000.00.0
8@ JAX0011111.01.0

Dolphins vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30T (+4.8)30T (+4.8)31 (+7.8)31 (+7.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.7)27 (+3.7)27 (+3.8)27 (+3.8)
6Washington Redskins16271520009910.010.0
7Buffalo Bills2138111101111111.011.0
8Pittsburgh Steelers1423042200121213.013.0

New York Jets (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3500)

6vs DAL22.0039810000111.01.0
7vs NE33.0032301010441.01.0
8@ JAX29.0038920100443.03.0
9PROJ-Dodds18.103012.21.10.800.510.710.710.7 (H=26)10.7 (H=34)
9PROJ-Tremblay18.752841.910.80.10.610.610.610.6 (H=25)10.6 (H=34)

Jets vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.2)18 (+0.2)16 (-0.4)15 (-0.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.7)16 (-0.7)15 (-0.8)14 (-1.7)
5Carson Wentz6317291891025014.
6Dak Prescott82284027700311121.
7Tom Brady7731452491100015.515.513.013.0
8Gardner Minshew76223427930828028.828.824.025.0

Ryan Fitzpatrick (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $4800)

6vs WAS2712181321025011.
7@ BUF73233528211613124.424.421.621.6
8@ PIT60213419022517017.217.213.314.3
9PROJ-Dodds20332281.21.33100.116.516.516.5 (H=36)16.5 (H=53)
9PROJ-Tremblay18292021.21390.115.415.415.4 (H=32)15.4 (H=47)

Jets vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.7)27 (+3.5)25 (+2.6)25 (+3.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+2.8)23 (+4.7)22 (+3.6)23 (+4.5)
5Jordan Howard2913621000012.
5Miles Sanders299150544906.410.48.410.4
6Ezekiel Elliott752810516547021.226.223.729.2
6Tony Pollard7313000001.
7Sony Michel311942321-8021.422.421.922.4
7James White44500875905.912.99.412.9
8Leonard Fournette60197607760013.620.617.120.6
8Ryquell Armstead1667000000.

Mark Walton (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4500)

6vs WAS32632065.04307.512.510.012.5
7@ BUF381466011.0-805.
8@ PIT521135063.01905.
9PROJ-Dodds15530.23.4260.19.713.111.4 (H=23)13.1 (H=38)
9PROJ-Tremblay15580.44.5340.112.216.714.5 (H=36)16.7 (H=58)
9PROJ-Bloom14550.23.0170.191210.5 (H=20)12.0 (H=32)

Kalen Ballage (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4000)

6vs WAS437100.0006.
7@ BUF537100.0006.
8@ PIT1038011.01101.
9PROJ-Dodds5160.21.2803.64.84.2 (H=4)4.8 (H=7)
9PROJ-Tremblay4160.10.8602.83.63.2 (H=3)3.6 (H=4)
9PROJ-Bloom380.50.0003.83.83.8 (H=4)3.8 (H=5)

Jets vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.5)25 (+3.8)25 (+3.0)25 (+3.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.9)15 (-0.3)15 (-0.4)15 (-0.6)
5Alshon Jeffery63865200005.
5Nelson Agholor61312000002.
6Tavon Austin76656400006.411.48.911.4
6Michael Gallup79744800004.
7Phillip Dorsett724346100010.613.612.113.6
7Julian Edelman7312747032006.713.710.213.7
8Chris Conley5674103100016.320.318.323.3
8D.J. Chark5612679110013.919.916.919.9

DeVante Parker (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4400)

6vs WAS6743.02810008.811.810.311.8
7@ BUF62105.055100011.516.514.016.5
8@ PIT4786.05900005.911.98.911.9
9PROJ-Dodds3.5500.30006.810.38.6 (H=14)10.3 (H=25)
9PROJ-Tremblay3.4470.30006.59.98.2 (H=13)9.9 (H=24)
9PROJ-Bloom5.0610.50009.114.111.6 (H=24)14.1 (H=44)

Preston Williams (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4200)

6vs WAS6762.03100003.
7@ BUF6686.08200008.
8@ PIT5374.04200004.
9PROJ-Dodds3.7500.20006.29.98.1 (H=13)9.9 (H=25)
9PROJ-Tremblay3.2440.20005.68.87.2 (H=11)8.8 (H=20)
9PROJ-Bloom4.0490.30006.710.78.7 (H=15)10.7 (H=28)

Albert Wilson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3500)

6vs WAS2965.01500001.
7@ BUF1721.02200002.
8@ PIT1821.0510006.
9PROJ-Dodds2.3220.20003.45.74.6 (H=6)5.7 (H=11)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.7240.20003.65.34.5 (H=6)5.3 (H=10)
9PROJ-Bloom2.0130.20002.54.53.5 (H=3)4.5 (H=7)

Allen Hurns (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3000)

6vs WAS2722.01600001.
7@ BUF2633.05300005.
8@ PIT2011.01210007.
9PROJ-Dodds1.2180.10002.43.63.0 (H=2)3.6 (H=6)
9PROJ-Tremblay0.9130.10001.92.82.4 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
9PROJ-Bloom1.0110.10001.72.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)

Jakeem Grant (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

6vs WAS000.000000000.00.0
7@ BUF700.000000000.00.0
8@ PIT1432.03200003.
9PROJ-Dodds1.3150.10002.13.42.9 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
9PROJ-Tremblay0.5600000.61.11.0 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)
9PROJ-Bloom2.0250.10003.15.14.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=11)

Jets vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.8)5 (-3.8)5 (-3.3)5 (-4.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-1.4)17 (-0.8)16 (-1.1)16 (-1.0)
5Zach Ertz587557111.716.714.216.7
6Jason Witten72755705.710.78.210.7
7Ben Watson62531801.
8Seth DeValve45111101.

Mike Gesicki (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2800)

6vs WAS4473.05105.
7@ BUF3344.04104.
8@ PIT3832.0100132.03.0
9PROJ-Dodds2.3270. (H=5)5.6 (H=14)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.9190. (H=3)4.4 (H=9)
9PROJ-Bloom3.0270. (H=7)6.9 (H=20)

Jets vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.5)26 (+1.5)27T (+2.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27T (+2.0)27T (+2.0)27 (+2.5) (+0.0)
5Jake Elliott1144777.07.0
6Brett Maher3411101014.014.0
7Mike Nugent1144777.07.0
8Josh Lambo3323111112.012.0

Jason Sanders (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

6vs WAS1111444.04.0
7@ BUF0033333.03.0
8@ PIT0022222.02.0

Jets vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+5.6)32 (+5.6)32 (+9.1)32 (+9.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+9.3)32 (+9.3)32 (+12.2)32 (+12.2)
5Philadelphia Eagles6128102102343435.035.0
6Dallas Cowboys2438221000444.04.0
7New England Patriots015414200131325.025.0
8Jacksonville Jaguars1521383000141415.015.0

Miami Dolphins (FanDuel: $3600, DraftKings: $2700)

6vs WAS17.0031100000001.01.0
7@ BUF31.0030520000221.01.0
8@ PIT27.0039421000444.04.0
9PROJ-Dodds22.603192.31.10.600. (H=23)8.6 (H=30)
9PROJ-Tremblay21.753172.11.10.700. (H=26)9.4 (H=35)