Matchup Analysis: New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Patriots 24, Ravens 21

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New England Patriots Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Patriots Offense31.2 (+8.8) (1)96 (-15) (23)275 (+35) (7)
Ravens Defense22.3 (-0.1) (16)84 (-26) (2)265 (+26) (26)

Baltimore Ravens Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Ravens Offense30.6 (+8.1) (2)204 (+93) (1)231 (-8) (18)
Patriots Defense7.6 (-14.8) (1)85 (-25) (4)148 (-90) (2)

Patriots Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

New Englandís rushing offense continues to be inconsistent in 2019. Even in a great matchup, Sony Michel averaged just 3.5 yards per carry which has been the trend this year as he has just one game over 4.0 yards per carry and is now averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on the season. The issue for Michel is that there are too many plays that go for no yardage as he looks to make a big play. This led running backs coach Ivan Fears to come out and say on Tuesday that he needs to be more consistent which will lead to him being more productive overall. The good news for Michel is that the Patriots remain committed to him as both James White and Rex Burkhead played a non-factor in the rushing game with Burkhead having just 3 carries and White having just 2 compared to Michelís 21 carries.

Outside of a fantastic performance by Nick Chubb in which he ran for 165 yards and three touchdowns, Baltimoreís defense has been a solid run-stopping unit. Over the last three weeks, Baltimore held Chris Carson to 65 yards on 21 carries, Joe Mixon to just 10 yards, and James Conner to 55 yards. While they no longer have the elite middle linebacker in C.J. Mosley but should get Patrick Onwuasor back who has been out since Week 5. Replacement Josh Bynes has played tremendously and has earned playing time for the Ravens as Onwuasor played a big role in Nick Chubbís breakout game. The weakness on this defense is at the outside linebacker position in Matthew Judon and rookie Jaylon Ferguson who have both struggled as they are both better pass rushers than run stoppers. While not the elite Ravens defense that we have become accustomed to as they are only allowing 4.3 yards-per-carry which is about league average, the Ravens have allowed the fewest rushing attempts so far this season as they play ball control with their offense and drive a game script that forces opponents to throw the ball.

Patriots Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

Even with no Josh Gordon, the Patriots passing attack continues to be a consistent unit that can beat you in so many different ways. While Julian Edelman remains the top target in this offense, the Patriots continue to distribute the ball efficiently to the rest of their offense. New addition Mohamed Sanu played a limited role in the offense as he caught just two of his five targets in a limited role that kept him on the field for just 54% of the plays as he still is learning the offense. The good news for the Patriots is that they should become even deeper as first-round pick NíKeal Harry is eligible to return from the IR this week. The Patriots do have a bye week next week so while Harry is practicing the Patriots may utilize the bye week to get him right next week. When he returns, expect Jakobi Meyers snaps to be the most impacted by the move and depending on how he produces possibly Phillip Dorsett.

The Ravens secondary is one that was horrendous to start the year when they lost Jimmy Smith allowing three straight quarterbacks to throw for 342 yards or more. They recognized the issue and went out and acquired Marcus Peters who played great last week against the Seahawks to play alongside Marlon Humphrey. The Ravens also got some great news this past week in that they are getting Jimmy Smith back from injury. Smith is likely going to be eased back into what is now a crowded secondary with veteran Brandon Carr also playing well. At the safety position, there is a slight concern for star Earl Thomas who did not practice on Wednesday with a knee injury and coming off a bye is a potential cause for concern, if he would be out that would be a major hit for this secondary. All signs are pointing toward this being a defense that is improving and we started to see it last week in their first real test since their early-season struggles as they held Russell Wilson to just 241 yards and a touchdown prior to their Week 8 bye as the team will no longer need to rely on Maurice Canady who had struggled for most of this season.

Ravens Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

The Ravens rushing offense continues to go through Lamar Jackson who has now rushed for 66 yards or more in each of the last four games and the last two games he has been even more impressive rushing for 152 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals and 116 yards and a touchdown last week against the Ravens. He is averaging 15.7 carries per game over the last three weeks compared to Mark Ingram who is averaging just 14.7. Ingram has cooled off since his hot start over the first three weeks as he is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry in his last three games. With the Ravens coming off a bye, Jackson and the rushing game will once again look to be a major part of this game as they have been all season.

New Englandís run defense is one that is tough to get a gauge on as they have faced an incredibly poor schedule that has led them to outscore their opponents by an average of 23 points per game which has forced teams to abandon their running game. For teams that have remained committed to the run, they have had success as we saw last week where the Browns ran Nick Chubb 20 times for 131 yards. On the season the Patriots have allowed 4.6 yards-per-carry which is the 12th worst in the NFL even though they have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game. The real question will be once the Patriots are in a close game, how does their run defense hold up, as they have been playing a lot of Dime defense with their run-stopping tackles Danny Shelton and Lawrence Guy off the field. This is a defense that is built to get the lead and shut your offense down against the pass, but it still has all the makings of a good run-stopping unit when it needs to be as Jamie Collins, Dontía Hightower and Elandon Roberts are all tremendous linebackers in the base 4-3 defense.

Ravens Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

The Ravens should get a significant piece of their passing attack back this week as Marquise Brown is expected to return after being injured since Week 5. This will be a major upgrade to a passing offense that struggled mightily last week against the Seahawks who have given up the third-most passing yards on the season. Jackson completed just 9 of his 20 passes last week as the team mostly relied on its rushing attack in the win. Even with Brown back, this is an offense that is going to rely on the run and have a low volume of attempts as they have thrown the ball for the third-fewest per game and the lowest percentage of passing plays compared to total offensive plays throwing the ball just 46% of the time.

The Patriots secondary continues to impress almost every week. Since Week 1, which was a blowout against the Steelers that Ben Roethlisberger accumulated garbage time production, the Patriots have not allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 200 yards, and lead the league with 19 interceptions which is 9 more than the next closest team. For reference, only two teams last season had more interceptions than 19 and the Patriots have only played 8 games. The Patriots secondary is incredibly fundamentally sound with all veterans who know their roles led by the McCourty brothers, Stephon Gilmore, and Jonathan Jones who has been one of the best slot corners in football this season.

Ravens vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-1.6)9 (-1.6)14 (-1.1)12 (-1.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-3.5)8 (-3.5)8 (-2.9)8 (-4.0)
5Mason Rudolph3313201311000010.610.69.29.2
6Andy Dalton6221392350112117.017.014.614.6
7Russell Wilson72204124111327017.817.815.315.3

Tom Brady (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $6300)

6vs NYG8231413340176228.328.323.027.0
7@ NYJ7731452491100015.515.513.013.0
8vs CLE69203625920000212118.418.4
9PROJ-Dodds24372701.60.7120.1202020.0 (H=45)20.0 (H=56)
9PROJ-Tremblay25382661.51230. (H=42)19.2 (H=53)
9PROJ-Bloom24352301.81110.118.418.418.4 (H=39)18.4 (H=49)

Ravens vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.7)7 (-2.9)9 (-2.0)8 (-2.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-10.1)1 (-12.0)2 (-10.7)1 (-12.6)
5James Conner4814551000011.511.511.511.5
5Jaylen Samuels15320431100.
6Joe Mixon308100322903.
6Giovani Bernard33440322002.
7Chris Carson642165053907.410.48.910.4
7C.J. Prosise6117000001.

Sony Michel (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5600)

6vs NYG412286032.027011.313.312.313.3
7@ NYJ311942321.0-8021.422.421.922.4
8vs CLE282174000.0007.
9PROJ-Dodds18660.50.96010.211.110.6 (H=18)11.1 (H=23)
9PROJ-Tremblay17630.50.2109.49.69.5 (H=14)9.6 (H=17)
9PROJ-Bloom18670.71.05011.412.411.9 (H=22)12.4 (H=27)

James White (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4900)

6vs NYG312-1099.04604.513.59.013.5
7@ NYJ4450087.05905.912.99.412.9
8vs CLE2824054.07507.911.99.911.9
9PROJ-Dodds3100.14.9440.16.611.59.1 (H=15)11.5 (H=28)
9PROJ-Tremblay280.14.4350. (H=11)9.9 (H=21)
9PROJ-Bloom250.16.0470.37.613.610.6 (H=19)13.6 (H=37)

Rex Burkhead (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3900)

6vs NYG000000.000000.00.0
7@ NYJ000000.000000.00.0
8vs CLE1334011.0901.
9PROJ-Dodds5170.12.1170. (H=8)6.7 (H=13)
9PROJ-Tremblay6230.13.3260. (H=14)9.4 (H=24)
9PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Brandon Bolden (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3300)

6vs NYG12323122.022010.512.511.512.5
7@ NYJ1812044.03904.
8vs CLE300010.000000.00.0
9PROJ-Dodds2600.8601.221.7 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
9PROJ-Tremblay1400.86011.81.5 (H=0)1.9 (H=1)

Ravens vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+1.6)21 (+2.5)20 (+1.6)21 (+2.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)17 (-0.1)18 (+1.7)16 (-0.3)16 (+0.0)
5JuJu Smith-Schuster557775100013.520.515.019.5
5James Washington33635200005.
6Auden Tate561259100009.114.111.614.1
6Alex Erickson496447011706.410.48.410.4
7Tyler Lockett71756111-3011.816.814.316.8
7Jaron Brown43636000006.

Julian Edelman (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $7000)

6vs NYG73159.0113000011.320.315.823.3
7@ NYJ73127.047032006.713.710.213.7
8vs CLE66118.07821-3019.527.523.527.5
9PROJ-Dodds6.1730.415010.216.313.3 (H=24)16.3 (H=35)
9PROJ-Tremblay5.8670.41809.915.712.8 (H=23)15.7 (H=33)
9PROJ-Bloom7.0670.50009.716.713.2 (H=24)16.7 (H=37)

Phillip Dorsett (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4000)

6vs NYG000.000000000.00.0
7@ NYJ7243.046100010.613.612.113.6
8vs CLE6463.04300004.
9PROJ-Dodds2.9430.40006.79.68.2 (H=13)9.6 (H=25)
9PROJ-Tremblay3.0410.30005.98.97.4 (H=11)8.9 (H=22)
9PROJ-Bloom3.0440.50007.410.48.9 (H=15)10.4 (H=28)

Mohamed Sanu (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $4500)

6@ ARI4743.02900002.
7vs LAR4721.0300000.
8vs CLE3752.02300002.
9PROJ-Dodds3.1400.20005.28.36.8 (H=10)8.3 (H=17)
9PROJ-Tremblay3.2420.20005.48.67.0 (H=11)8.6 (H=18)
9PROJ-Bloom4.0360.30005.49.47.4 (H=12)9.4 (H=21)

Jakobi Meyers (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3300)

6vs NYG5744.05400005.
7@ NYJ4255.04700004.
8vs CLE2521.0500000.
9PROJ-Dodds1.4190.10002.53.93.2 (H=3)3.9 (H=6)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.5200.10002.64.13.4 (H=3)4.1 (H=6)
9PROJ-Bloom1.0900000.91.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=1)

NKeal Harry (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3000)

9PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
9PROJ-Tremblay0.5600000.61.10.8 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)

Ravens vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-1.5)7 (-2.3)7 (-1.9)7 (-2.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-4.1)6 (-4.9)5 (-4.6)6 (-5.1)
5Vance McDonald37333403.
6C.J. Uzomah27322602.
7Jacob Hollister37632002.

Ben Watson (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3000)

7@ NYJ6253.01801.
8vs CLE4811.02602.
9PROJ-Dodds1.9220. (H=4)4.7 (H=9)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.5160. (H=2)3.7 (H=6)
9PROJ-Bloom2.0220. (H=5)5.4 (H=12)

Ravens vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+1.7)27 (+1.7)25 (+1.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+1.9)26 (+1.9)24 (+1.5) (+0.0)
5Chris Boswell3322111112.012.0
6Randy Bullock1122555.05.0
7Jason Myers3411101010.010.0

Nick Folk (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)


Ravens vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.4)11 (-1.4)6T (-2.8)6T (-2.8)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.1)19 (+0.1)18 (-0.2)18 (-0.2)
5Pittsburgh Steelers2627753000111111.011.0
6Cincinnati Bengals2349710101999.09.0
7Seattle Seahawks3034010000112.02.0

New England Patriots (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4500)

6vs NYG14.0021313101212127.027.0
7@ NYJ0.0015414200131325.025.0
8vs CLE13.0031051201232321.021.0
9PROJ-Dodds19.503892.410. (H=19)9.4 (H=21)
9PROJ-Tremblay20.504182.110.700. (H=18)9.1 (H=20)

Patriots vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-11.4)1 (-11.5)1 (-10.5)1 (-11.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-12.6)2 (-12.7)2 (-11.7)2 (-12.6)
5Colt McCoy5918271190121406.
6Daniel Jones501531161132809.
7Sam Darnold61113286042-100.20.2-2.7-1.7
8Baker Mayfield68203119411118014.514.512.612.6

Lamar Jackson (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $6200)

6vs CIN81213323600191521333330.633.6
7@ SEA599201430014116124.824.823.326.3
9PROJ-Dodds18322181.2111660.323.123.123.1 (H=57)23.1 (H=74)
9PROJ-Tremblay20322291.1112850.325.225.225.2 (H=66)25.2 (H=86)
9PROJ-Bloom18272031.11.59440.218.718.718.7 (H=39)18.7 (H=51)

Patriots vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-9.1)1 (-10.1)1 (-10.0)1 (-10.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-9.7)2 (-11.3)1 (-11.7)2 (-12.0)
5Chris Thompson324210751703.
5Wendell Smallwood11627000002.
6Jon Hilliman311138022-303.
6Elijhaa Penny2036021000.
7LeVeon Bell571570041607.
7Ty Montgomery729010000.
8Nick Chubb43201310117013.814.810.315.8
8Dontrell Hilliard261100442403.

Mark Ingram (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5900)

6vs CIN311352132.022013.415.414.415.4
7@ SEA301246011.0705.
9PROJ-Dodds13600.61.713010.912.611.8 (H=19)12.6 (H=27)
9PROJ-Tremblay14620.51.511010.311.811.0 (H=17)11.8 (H=24)
9PROJ-Bloom13460.42.0110.18.710.79.7 (H=14)10.7 (H=20)

Gus Edwards (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4000)

6vs CIN33634000.0003.
7@ SEA22835000.0003.
9PROJ-Dodds5260.10.5303.543.8 (H=4)4.0 (H=5)
9PROJ-Tremblay7320.10.4304.14.54.3 (H=5)4.5 (H=6)
9PROJ-Bloom5210.10.0002.72.72.7 (H=2)2.7 (H=2)

Justice Hill (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

6vs CIN17531000.0003.
7@ SEA400000.000000.00.0
9PROJ-Dodds3110.10.7502.22.92.6 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
9PROJ-Tremblay3110.10.8602.33.12.8 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
9PROJ-Bloom270.10.0001.31.31.4 (H=0)1.4 (H=1)

Patriots vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-8.6)2 (-9.5)1 (-9.4)2 (-10.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-6.5)7 (-7.9)7 (-8.0)7 (-8.6)
5Steven Sims343210165112.614.613.614.6
5Terry McLaurin56735100005.
6Golden Tate4996102100016.
6Darius Slayton49833200003.
7Demaryius Thomas44934200004.
7Jamison Crowder47542600002.
8Jarvis Landry621056500006.511.59.011.5
8Odell Beckham68755200005.210.27.710.2

Marquise Brown (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4800)

6vs CIN000.000000000.00.0
7@ SEA000.000000000.00.0
9PROJ-Dodds3.8550.30007.311.19.2 (H=17)11.1 (H=26)
9PROJ-Tremblay4.3590.30007.7129.9 (H=20)12.0 (H=30)
9PROJ-Bloom4.0530.3170.18.412.410.4 (H=21)12.4 (H=32)

Willie Snead (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $4000)

6vs CIN5453.01800001.
7@ SEA3710.0001200.
9PROJ-Dodds1.9250.10003.154.1 (H=5)5.0 (H=8)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.8250.10003.14.94.0 (H=4)4.9 (H=7)
9PROJ-Bloom2.0270.20003.95.94.9 (H=6)5.9 (H=10)

Seth Roberts (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

6vs CIN3322.02300002.
7@ SEA1941.0900000.
9PROJ-Dodds1.2140.100023.22.6 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.2140.100023.22.6 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
9PROJ-Bloom1.01100001.12.11.6 (H=0)2.1 (H=2)

Miles Boykin (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3300)

6vs CIN4532.02800002.
7@ SEA3222.05500005.
9PROJ-Dodds1.11400001.42.52.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=2)
9PROJ-Tremblay0.91100001.121.6 (H=0)2.0 (H=2)
9PROJ-Bloom1.0130.10001.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=3)

Patriots vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-3.7)1 (-6.2)2 (-4.9)1 (-6.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.7)3 (-6.1)4 (-4.9)3 (-6.3)
5Jeremy Sprinkle27321701.
6Rhett Ellison50733003.
7Ryan Griffin5121100.
8Demetrius Harris14323319.311.310.311.3

Mark Andrews (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $4900)

6vs CIN3986.09909.915.910.914.9
7@ SEA3482.03903.
9PROJ-Dodds4.6580.37.612.29.9 (H=16)12.2 (H=31)
9PROJ-Tremblay5.4610.37.913.310.6 (H=18)13.3 (H=36)
9PROJ-Bloom5.0560.37.412.49.9 (H=16)12.4 (H=31)

Hayden Hurst (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2500)

6vs CIN3211.0400.
7@ SEA2721.0100121.52.0
9PROJ-Dodds1.7180. (H=3)4.1 (H=9)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.8180. (H=3)4.2 (H=9)
9PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=4)4.7 (H=11)

Nick Boyle (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

6vs CIN5442.01801.
7@ SEA4011.0200232.53.0
9PROJ-Dodds1.5170. (H=3)3.8 (H=8)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.8200. (H=4)4.4 (H=10)
9PROJ-Bloom1.01101.12.11.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)

Patriots vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-4.2)1 (-4.2)1 (-4.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-4.3)2 (-4.3)2 (-4.7) (+0.0)
5Dustin Hopkins0011111.01.0
6Aldrick Rosas0022222.02.0
7Sam Ficken0000000.00.0
8Austin Seibert2211778.08.0

Justin Tucker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

6vs CIN3322111113.013.0
7@ SEA3333121212.012.0

Patriots vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23T (+1.1)23T (+1.1)11 (-1.9)11 (-1.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+1.1)24 (+1.1)14 (-1.8)14 (-1.8)
5Washington Redskins3344241000665.05.0
6New York Giants3542731101191912.012.0
7New York Jets3332301010441.01.0
8Cleveland Browns2731830000335.05.0

Baltimore Ravens (FanDuel: $3200, DraftKings: $2300)

6vs CIN17.0025021000445.05.0
7@ SEA16.0034711102232318.018.0
9PROJ-Dodds23.603672.20.90.600. (H=19)7.3 (H=27)
9PROJ-Tremblay24.003752.510.600. (H=24)8.4 (H=34)