Matchup Analysis: Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Chargers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Packers 25, Chargers 22

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Green Bay Packers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Packers Offense26.9 (+4.4) (7)102 (-9) (18)272 (+32) (8)
Chargers Defense19.6 (-2.8) (10)123 (+11) (23)217 (-21) (6)

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chargers Offense19.6 (-2.8) (23)70 (-41) (28)281 (+41) (6)
Packers Defense20.4 (-2.1) (12)124 (+12) (24)252 (+12) (19)

Packers Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Chargers defense.

The Packers rushing offense may not be putting up big numbers, but they look to be a solid unit led by the tandem of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Jones is the lead back here and has played more snaps with more carries than Williams in all but two games this season, and he has looked good running the ball in each of his last four games. Jones accounted for just 67 rushing yards last week as he did most of his damage through the air, but he was elusive when in the open field and did a great job making reads behind his offensive line. Jones did suffer a shoulder injury that sidelined him for a quarter of play last week, but he returned to the game showing no signs of limitation. Williams has played more of a limited role on the ground with just three and seven carries in his past two games, but he did score his first rushing touchdown of the season last week on a goal-line opportunity vultured from Jones. The Packers offensive line also has been playing very well recently as they sport a pair of solid tackles along with rookie left guard Elgton Jenkins, who had a very nice game last week to compliment what has been a solid debut thus far in his NFL career. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga did suffer a hand injury in last week’s game, but reports indicate he plans to play with a protective brace despite the injury.

The Chargers continued to underperform against the rush last week as they gave up over 100 yards and a touchdown to a lead running back for the third time this season. In fact, lead running backs have scored in four straight games with three of them rushing for 90 or more yards as this group has given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game (non-PPR) to running backs since Week 5. The only success this unit has found has been against subpar offensive lines earlier in the season. This is a tough pill to swallow for a defense with such talented defensive ends in Joey Bosa and the now healthy Melvin Ingram, but their interior lineman and linebackers have played poorly enough to bring this group down. It doesn’t help that both starting defensive tackles Brandon Mebane and Justin Jones have missed the past two games, especially considering rookie Jerry Tillery still needs time to develop as he has played quite poorly with the additional snaps in recent weeks. The stout Packers offensive line should have the advantage here regardless of whether Mebane and/or Jones are healthy enough to start, and these Chargers linebackers should present little challenge compared to the open-field talent Jones has displayed this season.

Packers Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Chargers defense.

Aaron Rodgers continues to make his job look easy as he passed for over 300 yards and three or more touchdowns for the second straight week despite still being without top wide receiver Davante Adams, who has been sidelined since Week 5. Rodgers has been leveraging a variety of weapons as he spreads the ball around in this offense. Last week, it was Aaron Jones who led the team in the receiving category with 159 yards and two receiving touchdowns from seven receptions. Jones has been heavily involved in the passing game out of the backfield, as he has garnered at least seven targets in four of his last five games while hauling in at least four receptions in all five outings with three receiving touchdowns in his past two games. Wide receiver has been tough to pin down for the Packers, as Rodgers has spread the ball around to multiple names in recent weeks. It has been Allen Lazard who has led this group in snaps for two straight weeks, but the top-performing wide receiver has changed each week without Davante Adams on the field. Adams could very well return this week though, so keep an eye on his status leading into Sunday.

The Chargers defense continues to rely on strong performances from its key playmakers as they held all but two quarterbacks to fewer than 260 passing yards this season. While they have an average number of sacks as a team (18), this defensive front is applying pressure at one of the highest rates in football thanks primarily to the excellent play from Joey Bosa. His partner Melvin Ingram just returned from injury last week as well, which is a huge plus to this unit and should help bring up that sack number. The Packers do have a strong pass-protecting offensive line though, so they should hold up relatively well in this one. Casey Hayward remains the rock of this secondary as he has been routinely locking down receivers with his physical playing style. If Davante Adams does return, it will be to a very tough matchup as Hayward is likely to limit the production of any receiver he lines up against in this one. Kevin King has also been strong in coverage from the slot, which should dampen expectations for Geronimo Allison. The Chargers have also done a decent job defending against pass-catching running backs as only one running back has hauled in more than four receptions and finished with over 50 receiving yards in a game.

Chargers Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Packers defense.

Melvin Gordon plodded along to another mediocre showing with just 31 rushing yards in last week’s game. Gordon did find the end zone for the first time this season on a 19-yard run, but that one play accounted for over half his yards on an otherwise highly uninspiring day that depicted much of what Gordon has shown us since his return from the holdout. He lacks explosiveness and has struggled to find his running lanes in all four games he has played in. Nevertheless, Gordon continues to out-snap and out-touch Austin Ekeler, who is having a similar lack of success rushing the ball with just 31 yards from 16 rushing attempts over his last four games. It doesn’t help that this offensive line is a low-tier unit that has been plagued by injuries all season long. They did receive a big boost from the return of left tackle Russell Okung last week, but Okung’s presence was a minimal help to the rushing offense due to how ineffective the interior of this offensive line remains.

The Packers run defense has struggled with consistency all season, and they had a mediocre outing last week as they allowed Chiefs running backs to combine for 80 rushing yards and a touchdown from 18 attempts. This group has talent upfront with Kenny Clark anchoring their interior defensive line, but they also have a liability in the likes of Montravius Adams, who seems to be losing favor on rushing downs due to his poor performance. The Packers linebackers have also proven they can be beaten, as they played big roles in giving up huge games to the likes of Dalvin Cook in Week 2 and Josh Jacobs two weeks ago. This week, however, the Chargers offensive line simply does not match up well against this Packers front--particularly on the interior as Chargers guards and centers have struggled all season long. This relative mismatch should allow Kenny Clark to significantly disrupt anything the Chargers try to run between the tackles.

Chargers Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Packers defense.

The Chargers offense will be under new leadership after the firing of coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. Despite this move, it is tough to expect much of a change to what has been a decent passing offense to start the season--ranking sixth with 281.1 passing yards per game and 16 touchdowns. Philip Rivers struggled in a tough matchup on the road in Chicago last week, but he has overall been solid for his 14th season in charge of this offense. He has already matched his number of 300+ yard games from 2018 and should continue spreading the ball around to a multitude of weapons. Last week, Keenan Allen saw double-digit targets for the second straight week and fifth time this season but is still going through a relative lull in performance averaging just 42.6 yards per game with no touchdowns over the last five weeks. Mike Williams continues to be targeted with big-play opportunities downfield, but his conversion of those chances has been inconsistent all season. Tight end Hunter Henry remains a big part of this offense despite putting up a season-low 47 yards last week. Austin Ekeler also saw a season-low three targets last week but found the end zone as he continues to see over 50 percent of the snaps from the backfield due to his pass-catching ability.

The Packers passing defense continues to struggle in recent weeks, allowing a league-leading 331 passing yards per game over the past four weeks. While this group looked stout to start the season, that was more a factor of low-quality opponents rather than a high-caliber passing defense. This group does have some strengths, particularly on the edge of its defensive line as pass rushers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith have combined for 15 sacks on the season--the most among any edge-rushing duo in the league. While the Chargers did get tackle Russell Okung back, this offensive line still has a disadvantage against these stout Packers edge rushers. In the secondary, the Packers roll out some strong young talent--however, that youth has proven to cost them at times as the inexperience has forced some costly mistakes in coverage. Still, Jaire Alexander should be a pretty even matchup for the likes of Mike Williams, while Keenan Allen should have a slight nod over veteran slot cornerback Tramon Williams. These Packers safeties and linebackers have had a tough couple of weeks covering tight ends though, as Travis Kelce amassed 63 yards and a score last week while Darren Waller exploded for 126 yards and two touchdowns (along with a touchdown from Foster Moreau) in Week seven. Hunter Henry has a significant size advantage over safety Chandon Sullivan and should have a good chance at matching a similar stat line as Travis Kelce from last week.

Chargers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-3.0)6 (-3.0)7 (-3.1)7 (-3.2)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-5.6)4 (-5.6)4 (-5.9)4 (-5.8)
5Joe Flacco6114201821137012.812.89.010.0
6Devlin Hodges6015201321138010.410.49.19.1
7Ryan Tannehill6423293122157023.323.320.223.2
8Mitchell Trubisky82233525301410012.712.78.19.1

Aaron Rodgers (FanDuel: $8100, DraftKings: $6900)

6vs DET74243928321310022.222.219.319.3
7vs OAK5425314295026148.148.143.846.8
8@ KC69233330530629030.
9PROJ-Dodds24362761.70.43140. (H=53)22.2 (H=62)
9PROJ-Tremblay24382781.70.93120.121.621.621.6 (H=50)21.6 (H=59)
9PROJ-Bloom23322532.40.53170. (H=61)24.1 (H=71)

Chargers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+2.3)21 (+1.8)24 (+2.6)22 (+2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+6.6)26 (+7.1)27 (+7.2)27 (+8.0)
5Phillip Lindsay281511414433020.724.722.727.7
5Royce Freeman331361022606.
6James Conner30164117778123.930.927.430.9
6Benny Snell2917750111408.
7Derrick Henry48229011118016.817.817.317.8
7Dion Lewis1712010000.
8David Montgomery602713515412020.724.722.727.7
8Tarik Cohen17490333704.

Aaron Jones (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $7000)

6vs DET361147074.01306106.09.0
7vs OAK341250044.033114.318.316.318.3
8@ KC441367087.0159234.641.638.144.6
9PROJ-Dodds14650.64.4400.215.319.717.5 (H=36)19.7 (H=49)
9PROJ-Tremblay11460.54.4400.212.817.215.0 (H=28)17.2 (H=39)
9PROJ-Bloom12520.54.0230.312.316.314.3 (H=26)16.3 (H=35)

Jamaal Williams (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $5900)

6vs DET3914104054.032119.623.621.626.6
7vs OAK2435054.02619.
8@ KC32722133.014115.618.617.118.6
9PROJ-Dodds9350.22.9200.27.910.89.4 (H=17)10.8 (H=20)
9PROJ-Tremblay8310.23.0230.27.810.89.3 (H=17)10.8 (H=20)
9PROJ-Bloom7270.23.0200.37.710.79.2 (H=17)10.7 (H=20)

Dan Vitale (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

6vs DET1000000.000000.00.0
7vs OAK1700022.04304.
8@ KC1400000.000000.00.0
9PROJ-Dodds0000.6600.61.20.9 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)
9PROJ-Tremblay0000.5400.40.90.6 (H=0)0.9 (H=0)

Chargers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-2.4)9 (-3.0)8 (-2.5)8 (-3.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-4.1)9 (-5.5)10 (-4.6)9 (-6.5)
5Courtland Sutton517492100015.
5Emmanuel Sanders3911900000.
6Diontae Johnson42221400001.
6Donte Moncrief14211100001.
7Corey Davis487680100014.
7Tajae Sharpe25321910007.
8Anthony Miller42336700006.
8Allen Robinson73756200006.211.28.711.2

Davante Adams (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $7100)

6vs DET000.000000000.00.0
7vs OAK000.000000000.00.0
8@ KC000.000000000.00.0
9PROJ-Dodds3.2460.30006.49.68.0 (H=9)9.6 (H=14)
9PROJ-Tremblay3.4500.20006.29.67.9 (H=8)9.6 (H=14)
9PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5600)

6vs DET5722.04801905.
7vs OAK2032.0133100019.321.320.324.3
8@ KC4321.0400000.
9PROJ-Dodds2.8420.20005.48.26.8 (H=8)8.2 (H=13)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.4230.10203.14.53.8 (H=3)4.5 (H=4)
9PROJ-Bloom3.0500.40007.410.48.9 (H=13)10.4 (H=20)

Allen Lazard (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3900)

6vs DET1754.065100012.516.514.516.5
7vs OAK5143.04200004.
8@ KC4655.04200004.
9PROJ-Dodds3.0360.20004.87.86.3 (H=9)7.8 (H=17)
9PROJ-Tremblay2.0270.20003.95.94.9 (H=6)5.9 (H=11)
9PROJ-Bloom4.0470.30006.510.58.5 (H=16)10.5 (H=30)

Geronimo Allison (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4200)

6vs DET3273.0400000475.57.0
7vs OAK3454.03300003.
8@ KC4431.0700000.
9PROJ-Dodds2.8320.20004.47.25.8 (H=7)7.2 (H=14)
9PROJ-Tremblay2.8350.20004.77.56.1 (H=8)7.5 (H=15)
9PROJ-Bloom3.0340.30005.28.26.7 (H=9)8.2 (H=18)

Jake Kumerow (FanDuel: $5100, DraftKings: $3400)

6vs DET6532.01700001.
7vs OAK4322.054100011.413.412.413.4
8@ KC3542.04800004.
9PROJ-Dodds1.8260.10003.254.1 (H=4)5.0 (H=9)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.4200.10002.643.3 (H=3)4.0 (H=6)
9PROJ-Bloom2.0350.20004.76.75.7 (H=7)6.7 (H=15)

Chargers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.6)11 (-1.8)11 (-1.2)11 (-2.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.2)5 (-5.2)6 (-4.2)5 (-5.4)
5Jeff Heuerman37312602.
6Vance McDonald3911500.
7Jonnu Smith53336406.
8Trey Burton49411601.

Jimmy Graham (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4300)

6vs DET5452.01701.
7vs OAK3344.065112.516.514.516.5
8@ KC4253.0200253.55.0
9PROJ-Dodds3.2340. (H=9)8.4 (H=18)
9PROJ-Tremblay3.1340. (H=9)8.3 (H=18)
9PROJ-Bloom3.0340. (H=11)9.4 (H=22)

Marcedes Lewis (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

6vs DET2922.0500576.07.0
7vs OAK2400.000000.00.0
8@ KC4311.01101.
9PROJ-Dodds1.3140.123.32.7 (H=2)3.3 (H=6)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.1130.11.932.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
9PROJ-Bloom1.0100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)

Jace Sternberger (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $--)

9PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0
9PROJ-Tremblay0.5600.61.10.8 (H=0)1.1

Chargers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-1.5)6 (-1.5)6 (-1.7) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.5)18 (+0.5)18T (+0.5) (+0.0)
5Brandon McManus23228810.010.0
6Chris Boswell1133666.06.0
7Cody Parkey1123556.06.0
8Eddy Pineiro3511101010.010.0

Mason Crosby (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

6vs DET3322111112.012.0
7vs OAK0066666.06.0
8@ KC1144777.07.0

Chargers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (-0.2)18 (-0.2)16T (-0.7)16T (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+0.8)23 (+0.8)19T (+0.0)19T (+0.0)
5Denver Broncos1324602100668.08.0
6Pittsburgh Steelers1734812101191914.014.0
7Tennessee Titans2036510100334.04.0
8Chicago Bears1723111000334.04.0

Green Bay Packers (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $3400)

6vs DET22.0029930000333.03.0
7vs OAK24.0048401100442.02.0
8@ KC24.0033720100444.04.0
9PROJ-Dodds21.703612.410.700. (H=18)8.3 (H=22)
9PROJ-Tremblay22.003522.310.600. (H=19)8.6 (H=24)

Packers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-1.5)10 (-1.5)9 (-2.0)8 (-2.4)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+3.2)24 (+3.1)23 (+2.2)22 (+2.0)
5Dak Prescott72274446323427030.930.926.229.2
6Matthew Stafford5918322650039014.214.211.511.5
7Derek Carr5922282932120021.721.716.717.7
8Matt Moore5924362672013021.721.719.019.0

Philip Rivers (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $5100)

6vs PIT62264432022100222216.820.8
7@ TEN6424383292000024.524.521.224.2
8@ CHI4519292011100013.
9PROJ-Dodds24372861.5111019.419.419.4 (H=47)19.4 (H=66)
9PROJ-Tremblay23362671.6113019.119.119.1 (H=45)19.1 (H=64)
9PROJ-Bloom223623721110191919.0 (H=45)19.0 (H=64)

Packers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+3.0)26 (+3.3)26 (+3.2)26 (+3.5)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-3.1)9 (-4.3)10 (-3.9)10 (-4.4)
5Ezekiel Elliott67126214229015.
5Tony Pollard5419000001.
6Kerryon Johnson43133414227012.
6J.D. McKissic1434032701.
7Josh Jacobs372112403310013.416.414.919.4
7DeAndre Washington146290111204.
8Damien Williams25730100009.
8LeSean McCoy239400442306.310.36.39.3

Melvin Gordon (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5000)

6vs PIT37818043.03004.
7@ TEN341632032.0-318.910.97.99.9
8@ CHI25831132.0309.411.410.411.4
9PROJ-Dodds15620.42.6180.11113.612.3 (H=24)13.6 (H=36)
9PROJ-Tremblay14580.42.3170.110.512.811.7 (H=22)12.8 (H=33)
9PROJ-Bloom13510. (H=20)12.1 (H=30)

Austin Ekeler (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $6000)

6vs PIT28514043.01402.
7@ TEN3857087.0118118.525.522.028.5
8@ CHI2433032.01918.
9PROJ-Dodds6250.25.2500.310.515.713.1 (H=26)15.7 (H=39)
9PROJ-Tremblay5220.24.9430.39.514.412.0 (H=22)14.4 (H=33)
9PROJ-Bloom4100.25.0420.59.414.411.9 (H=22)14.4 (H=33)

Packers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.3)8 (-3.4)28T (-2.5)10 (-3.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+6.2)27 (+7.8)28 (+7.1)29 (+9.0)
5Amari Cooper631411226100028.639.634.142.6
5Michael Gallup62147113100017.324.320.827.3
6Kenny Golladay4795121000012.117.114.620.1
6Marvin Hall10115800005.
7Keelan Doss29535400005.
7Marcell Ateman23113600003.
8Mecole Hardman92255100011.513.512.513.5
8Tyreek Hill53967601508.

Keenan Allen (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6400)

6vs PIT6062.03300003.
7@ TEN60114.06100006.
8@ CHI31107.05300005.312.38.812.3
9PROJ-Dodds6.1780.500010.816.913.8 (H=25)16.9 (H=41)
9PROJ-Tremblay7.2920.500012.219.415.8 (H=32)19.4 (H=53)
9PROJ-Bloom6.0650.50009.515.512.5 (H=21)15.5 (H=36)

Mike Williams (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4600)

6vs PIT56105.07200007.212.29.712.2
7@ TEN6164.04700004.
8@ CHI4363.06900006.
9PROJ-Dodds3.5560.30007.410.99.2 (H=16)10.9 (H=27)
9PROJ-Tremblay3.8550.30007.311.19.2 (H=16)11.1 (H=28)
9PROJ-Bloom4.0660.400091311.0 (H=22)13.0 (H=36)

Packers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+2.1)27 (+2.7)27 (+2.1)27 (+2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)32 (+6.1)30 (+7.4)31 (+6.7)31 (+8.0)
5Jason Witten60432902.
6T.J. Hockenson33642102.
7Darren Waller6187126224.631.628.134.6
8Travis Kelce598463112.316.314.316.3

Hunter Henry (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $6000)

6vs PIT4198.01002223026.033.0
7@ TEN5886.09709.715.712.715.7
8@ CHI3964.04704.
9PROJ-Dodds4.9650.48.913.811.4 (H=21)13.8 (H=31)
9PROJ-Tremblay4.0500.36.810.88.8 (H=13)10.8 (H=20)
9PROJ-Bloom5.0560.481310.5 (H=18)13.0 (H=28)

Virgil Green (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

6vs PIT2321.01501.
7@ TEN1211.0900.
8@ CHI1311.0100121.52.0
9PROJ-Dodds0.8900.91.71.3 (H=0)1.7 (H=2)
9PROJ-Tremblay0.780. (H=1)2.1 (H=2)
9PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Packers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-0.5)10 (-0.5)27T (-0.5) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+1.7)25 (+1.7)27T (+2.5) (+0.0)
5Brett Maher1333666.06.0
6Matt Prater5511161621.021.0
7Daniel Carlson1133667.07.0
8Harrison Butker1233666.06.0

Mike Badgley (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

6vs PIT0000000.00.0
7@ TEN0000000.00.0
8@ CHI0000000.00.0

Packers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-2.8)4 (-2.8)3 (-3.9)3 (-3.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-3.2)5 (-3.2)3 (-5.2)3 (-5.2)
5Dallas Cowboys3433520000221.01.0
6Detroit Lions2344711200777.07.0
7Oakland Raiders424811000011-3.0-3.0
8Kansas City Chiefs3137450000554.04.0

Los Angeles Chargers (FanDuel: $3400, DraftKings: $2000)

6vs PIT24.0025601000223.03.0
7@ TEN23.0040321000444.04.0
8@ CHI16.0038841100889.09.0
9PROJ-Dodds23.303732.50.70.600. (H=18)7.4 (H=32)
9PROJ-Tremblay25.003732.40.90.600. (H=18)7.3 (H=31)