Matchup Analysis: Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Browns 22, Broncos 19

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Cleveland Browns Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Browns Offense19.0 (-3.4) (25)125 (+14) (12)220 (-19) (20)
Broncos Defense18.9 (-3.6) (8)110 (-1) (19)195 (-44) (4)

Denver Broncos Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Broncos Offense15.6 (-6.8) (28)110 (+0) (16)203 (-36) (27)
Browns Defense25.9 (+3.4) (22)143 (+32) (29)222 (-17) (7)

Browns Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

What Nick Chubb is doing is remarkable this season as he seemingly is getting better as the season progresses. Last week, Chubb in a difficult matchup against New England ran for 131 yards on 20 carries which is now the third time in four games that Chubb has run for over 120 yards. This is an offensive line that is built from the inside out as the strength is behind center J.C. Tretter and left guard Joel Bitonio and the Browns are running behind the two veterans. If there is a concern for Chubb and this rushing attack it is the recent trend of fumbling for Chubb who now has three lost fumbles over the last two games. Chubb had not fumbled in a game since his junior season at Georgia in 2016, so whether it is him trying to do too much to help this team or just random variance it is something to keep an eye on for a player who has no history of fumbling issues.

Denver’s run defense is a tough one to gauge as it is difficult to get past the Jaguars game in which they allowed Leonard Fournette to rush for 225 yards and Ryquell Armstead to add another 42 yards rushing. However, everything before that game and everything since that game has this pegged as a unit that is average to slightly above average. They have not allowed a 100-yard rusher outside of Fournette, and have allowed just one rushing touchdown since Week 4. While it is a defense that is designed to stop the pass and A.J. Johnson has been a tackling machine at middle linebacker for the Broncos stepping in for Josey Jewell who was benched after the Leonard Fournette game. Nick Chubb will get his yards, but do not expect this defense to be as bad as they were when they faced Jacksonville.

Browns Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

At this point, things can only go up for the Browns passing offense. Discipline continues to be the issue for this team as the Browns lead the NFL in penalties, interceptions, and are second to last in completion percentage. Part of the blame can be on the schedule as the Browns have faced the two best defenses the past three games in New England and San Francisco, but part of it is Mayfield’s inability to go through progressions. Teams are doubling both Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry taking away his top options which has forced Mayfield to panic. The offensive line continues to be an issue for the Browns as Mayfield was sacked five times last week against New England as while the team replaced Greg Robinson with Justin McCray at left tackle, it made no significant difference. The right side of the line remains a mess with Eric Kush and Chris Hubbard both playing at below league average levels.

Despite losing Bradley Roby in the offseason, and prized free-agent signing Bryce Callahan has been injured for most of the season, Vic Fangio’s pass defense has stood up to the test for most of the season so far this year. Chris Harris continues to play at an elite level and the safeties Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons have been two of the best safeties in the NFL this season. This is a team that since Week 2, has not allowed more than 235 yards passing and has allowed just four passing touchdowns and the team has faced some great quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Patrick Mahomes before he left with an injury. Even in Week 1, Derek Carr threw for just 259 yards and one touchdown. Outside of San Francisco and New England, this is the best pass defense in the NFL. If there is a weakness, it is on the outside opposite Chris Harris as the team utilizes Davontae Harris who has struggled this season with speed receivers which could open up an opportunity for Antonio Callaway on the outside as the slower Yiadom who runs a mid-4.5 40 time will be at a speed disadvantage.

Broncos Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Browns defense.

The Broncos rushing attack is going to be heavily relied upon throughout the rest of the season with Joe Flacco missing significant time due to a neck injury. Both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman have been tremendously consistent both averaging over 4.0 yards per carry. What is even more amazing about that is that Freeman has just one carry over 15 yards on the year, and Lindsay who is a speedster has just three carries over 11 yards and no carry over 32 yards. To have a 4.5 yards-per-carry average with only three carries over 11 yards indicates that when you’re touching the ball, you’re gaining yards. While a below-average pass-blocking offensive line, the run blocking is much better and did get Right Tackle Jawaun James back last week, but did re-aggravate it and while miss this week once again. If there is one area of concern it is that Lindsay was added to the injury report with a wrist injury and was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. We still expect that the usage will be somewhat split for this game, but if Lindsay were to be out, expect a significant usage upgrade for Freeman.

The Browns rushing attack held strong against the Patriots last week, but on the season have been a disaster since Christian Kirksey’s season was ended with a torn pectoral. The issue for the Browns has been gap discipline and an overall lack of production up the middle. Rookie Mack Wilson continues to struggle at middle linebacker and Larry Ogunjobi at defensive tackle is not your traditional space-eating run stopper and has done a poor job keeping offensive lineman from getting to the second level. Since Week 3 which was the first week without Kirksey, the Browns have allowed the third-most yards to running backs and are allowing 4.9 yards per carry to the position.

Broncos Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Browns defense.

Denver’s passing offense is in a state of transition. Joe Flacco will miss significant time with a neck injury leaving Brandon Allen to make his first career start. Looking at his pre-season stats, they were nothing to write home about for the quarterback in his fourth NFL season. Allen completed just 63% of his passes with little upside at just 6.2 yards per attempt and had no touchdowns compared to three interceptions. Allen will also be with a changing wide receiving group that is still trying to find its identity without Emmanuel Sanders who was traded to San Francisco two weeks ago. Last week, outside of Courtland Sutton who had 3 receptions for 72 yards, no receiver had more than 18 yards and DaeSean Hamilton who many thought would see an uptick in production saw just one target.

Cleveland got both Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back as it was the first time the two starting corners had played since Week 2 as they were out with hamstring injuries. Ward mostly contained Phillip Dorsett, while Williams was fantastic against Mohamed Sanu holding the newly acquired Patriots receiver to just two receptions. Ward did struggle and has struggled when he had to move to the slot in the base defense as he allowed Julian Edelman for a big gain last week. All-in-all, this is a unit that is an average unit, as they have not allowed a 300-yard passer all season, but have allowed an average of 250 yards per game over the last five games. Expect the Browns to continue to be without Damarious Randall, who is dealing with a hamstring injury and did not practice on Wednesday.

Broncos vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-7.2)3 (-7.3)3 (-6.6)3 (-7.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-8.4)3 (-8.4)3 (-8.1)3 (-9.0)
5Philip Rivers703248211021-308.
6Ryan Tannehill301316144011606.
7Matt Moore411019117101-
8Jacoby Brissett64152520200634013.513.59.510.5

Baker Mayfield (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $5100)

6vs SEA692237249134351232322.522.5
8@ NE68203119411118014.514.512.612.6
9PROJ-Dodds19332261.2128015.915.915.9 (H=33)15.9 (H=47)
9PROJ-Tremblay20332321.31.215016.116.116.1 (H=34)16.1 (H=48)
9PROJ-Bloom21322111.31.1230.115.515.515.5 (H=32)15.5 (H=45)

Broncos vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (-0.1)17 (+0.2)16 (+0.1)16 (-0.1)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-7.0)11 (-3.7)9 (-5.6)9 (-4.6)
5Austin Ekeler4637016158609.324.314.823.3
5Melvin Gordon321231064703.
6Derrick Henry371528031503.
6Dion Lewis291-10332001.
7LeSean McCoy2612640221207.
7Anthony Sherman1227000000.
8Marlon Mack39197611114015.016.015.516.0
8Nyheim Hines184120333404.

Nick Chubb (FanDuel: $8100, DraftKings: $7300)

6vs SEA5920122265.017025.930.926.432.9
8@ NE4320131011.07013.814.810.315.8
9PROJ-Dodds211000.73.1210.116.92018.4 (H=38)20.0 (H=49)
9PROJ-Tremblay21970.73.0200.116.519.518.0 (H=36)19.5 (H=47)
9PROJ-Bloom21910.93.0170.116.819.818.3 (H=37)19.8 (H=48)

Dontrell Hilliard (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4400)

6vs SEA1000032.01701.
8@ NE26110044.02403.
9PROJ-Dodds2701.2901.62.82.3 (H=1)2.9 (H=2)
9PROJ-Tremblay1501.31001.52.82.3 (H=1)2.9 (H=2)
9PROJ-Bloom0002.01301.33.32.4 (H=1)3.4 (H=3)

DErnest Johnson (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

6vs SEA100000.000000.00.0
8@ NE000000.000000.00.0
9PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
9PROJ-Tremblay1300.8600.91.71.3 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
9PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Broncos vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-7.3)1 (-10.4)2 (-8.7)1 (-11.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-8.5)3 (-11.9)3 (-10.0)2 (-12.9)
5Mike Williams621367400007.413.410.413.4
5Keenan Allen69641800001.
6Adam Humphries43664700004.710.77.710.7
6Corey Davis60533600003.
7Tyreek Hill535374100013.416.414.916.4
7Mecole Hardman29322810008.810.89.810.8
8T.Y. Hilton60625400005.
8Chester Rogers4021700000.

Odell Beckham (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $6600)

6vs SEA68116.0101000010.
8@ NE6875.05200005.210.27.710.2
9PROJ-Dodds5.3670.41309.414.712.1 (H=21)14.7 (H=31)
9PROJ-Tremblay5.0680.40309.514.512.0 (H=21)14.5 (H=31)
9PROJ-Bloom6.0730.40009.715.712.7 (H=23)15.7 (H=35)

Jarvis Landry (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4500)

6vs SEA6653.03600003.
8@ NE62105.06500006.511.59.011.5
9PROJ-Dodds4.3590.30007.7129.9 (H=17)12.1 (H=33)
9PROJ-Tremblay4.4630.30008.112.510.4 (H=18)12.6 (H=35)
9PROJ-Bloom4.0580.30007.611.69.7 (H=16)11.7 (H=31)

Damion Ratley (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

6vs SEA000.000000000.00.0
8@ NE000.000000000.00.0
9PROJ-Dodds3.3420.20005.48.77.1 (H=13)8.7 (H=28)
9PROJ-Tremblay0.4500000.50.90.7 (H=0)0.9 (H=0)
9PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Antonio Callaway (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3300)

6vs SEA4742.02200002.
8@ NE5332.01100001.
9PROJ-Dodds1.7210.20003.354.2 (H=4)5.0 (H=9)
9PROJ-Tremblay2.0260.20003.85.84.8 (H=6)5.8 (H=12)
9PROJ-Bloom2.0160.10002.24.23.2 (H=2)4.2 (H=7)

Rashard Higgins (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

6vs SEA000.000000000.00.0
8@ NE1421.0200000.
9PROJ-Dodds0.7800000.81.51.2 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
9PROJ-Tremblay0.5600000.61.10.8 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)
9PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Broncos vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.3)12 (-0.8)12 (-1.1)12 (-1.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.9)14 (-1.6)12 (-1.8)14 (-1.8)
5Virgil Green5411500.
6Delanie Walker40634304.
7Travis Kelce55864404.410.47.410.4
8Jack Doyle46546106.

Ricky Seals-Jones (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $2900)

6vs SEA4763.047110.713.712.213.7
8@ NE3100.000000.00.0
9PROJ-Dodds1.5210. (H=3)4.2 (H=8)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.5140.123.52.8 (H=2)3.5 (H=6)
9PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=4)5.3 (H=12)

Demetrius Harris (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

6vs SEA1900.000002.02.0
8@ NE1432.03319.311.310.311.3
9PROJ-Dodds1.1120. (H=1)2.9 (H=4)
9PROJ-Tremblay0.9100. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
9PROJ-Bloom2.0130. (H=3)4.5 (H=9)

Broncos vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21T (+0.9)21T (+0.9)26T (+1.8) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-1.5)5T (-1.5)12T (-1.0) (+0.0)
5Mike Badgley0000000.00.0
6Cody Parkey0000000.00.0
7Harrison Butker3333121212.012.0
8Adam Vinatieri34019914.014.0

Austin Seibert (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

6vs SEA0023222.02.0
8@ NE2211778.08.0

Broncos vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.5)20 (+0.5)23 (+1.6)23 (+1.6)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)26 (+2.1)26 (+2.1)28 (+4.8)28 (+4.8)
5Los Angeles Chargers20350311017714.014.0
6Tennessee Titans1627011000334.04.0
7Kansas City Chiefs620590101232324.024.0
8Indianapolis Colts1327930000337.07.0

Cleveland Browns (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $3100)

6vs SEA32.0045430100554.04.0
8@ NE27.0031830000335.05.0
9PROJ-Dodds19.303352.510.800.4101010.0 (H=25)10.0 (H=34)
9PROJ-Tremblay18.003552.31.10.800.510.810.810.8 (H=28)10.8 (H=39)

Browns vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+1.8)20 (+1.7)21 (+2.0)19 (+0.9)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)23 (+2.8)23 (+2.8)24 (+3.2)23 (+2.1)
5Jimmy Garoppolo762029181204-3016.816.814.914.9
6Russell Wilson83233329520931131.931.928.928.9
8Tom Brady6920362592000021.021.018.418.4

Brandon Allen (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4500)

6vs TEN000000000000.00.0
7vs KC000000000000.00.0
8@ IND000000000000.00.0
9PROJ-Dodds20332211.21.114015.215.215.2 (H=37)15.2 (H=49)
9PROJ-Tremblay22362461.21.116016.616.616.6 (H=43)16.6 (H=57)
9PROJ-Bloom18311350.71.22308.68.68.6 (H=13)8.6 (H=18)

Browns vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.6)23 (+2.5)21 (+2.3)23 (+2.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+9.7)28 (+9.5)29 (+9.2)28 (+10.5)
5Matt Breida261111413315124.927.926.430.9
5Tevin Coleman2616971000015.715.715.715.7
6Chris Carson662412414435021.925.923.928.9
6C.J. Prosise17380311502.
8James White28240547507.911.99.911.9
8Sony Michel282174000007.

Phillip Lindsay (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5300)

6vs TEN291570132.05013.515.514.515.5
7vs KC271136011.0-403.
8@ IND361459055.01707.612.610.112.6
9PROJ-Dodds14640.43.0220.111.614.613.1 (H=27)14.6 (H=39)
9PROJ-Tremblay13570.33.6270.110.814.412.6 (H=25)14.4 (H=38)
9PROJ-Bloom12500.33.0160.191210.5 (H=18)12.0 (H=27)

Royce Freeman (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4900)

6vs TEN381134055.04207.612.610.112.6
7vs KC421035154.032012.716.714.716.7
8@ IND371240121.05010.511.511.011.5
9PROJ-Dodds12500.33.2230.19.712.911.3 (H=21)12.9 (H=34)
9PROJ-Tremblay10450.23.7290.19.212.911.1 (H=21)12.9 (H=34)
9PROJ-Bloom11430.43.0170.191210.5 (H=19)12.0 (H=30)

Andy Janovich (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

6vs TEN2300011.0800.
7vs KC1300011.02202.
8@ IND2800022.0900.
9PROJ-Dodds0000.6500.51.10.8 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)
9PROJ-Tremblay0000.4300.30.70.5 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)

Browns vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15 (+0.3)16 (+0.0)16 (+0.3)16 (+0.3)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+1.4)17 (+1.5)18 (+1.6)17 (+0.5)
5Marquise Goodwin464341011505.
5Kendrick Bourne17222400002.
6Jaron Brown455329200014.917.916.417.9
6Tyler Lockett80557501307.812.810.312.8
8Julian Edelman661187821-3019.527.523.527.5
8Phillip Dorsett64634300004.

Courtland Sutton (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5800)

6vs TEN5884.07600007.611.69.611.6
7vs KC6486.08700008.714.711.714.7
8@ IND6863.07200007.210.28.710.2
9PROJ-Dodds4.6740.40009.814.412.1 (H=23)14.4 (H=34)
9PROJ-Tremblay5.0760.4000101512.5 (H=24)15.0 (H=37)
9PROJ-Bloom5.0570.30007.512.510.0 (H=16)12.5 (H=27)

DaeSean Hamilton (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3700)

6vs TEN4022.02500002.
7vs KC4452.0400000.
8@ IND4510.000000000.00.0
9PROJ-Dodds2.5290.20004.16.65.4 (H=7)6.6 (H=14)
9PROJ-Tremblay2.8370.20004.97.76.3 (H=10)7.7 (H=18)
9PROJ-Bloom2.0110.10001.73.72.7 (H=2)3.7 (H=5)

Diontae Spencer (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3100)

6vs TEN500.000000000.00.0
7vs KC111.0500000.
8@ IND722.01801502.
9PROJ-Dodds1.3160.10002.23.53.0 (H=2)3.6 (H=5)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.1150.10102.23.32.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
9PROJ-Bloom1.0600000.61.61.2 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)

Fred Brown (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

6vs TEN911.0500000.
7vs KC600.000000000.00.0
8@ IND4621.01600001.
9PROJ-Dodds1.0140.1000232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=4)
9PROJ-Tremblay1.1150.10002.13.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
9PROJ-Bloom1.0800000.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=1)

Browns vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+0.4)16 (-0.5)17 (-0.1)14 (-0.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-1.0)13 (-1.8)15 (-1.4)13 (-1.9)
5George Kittle738670114.820.817.820.8
6Luke Willson56321601.
8Ben Watson48112602.

Noah Fant (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

6vs TEN4032.01601.
7vs KC4851.0700.
8@ IND6085.02602.
9PROJ-Dodds2.8290. (H=8)6.9 (H=18)
9PROJ-Tremblay3.3330. (H=10)7.8 (H=23)
9PROJ-Bloom3.0200. (H=5)5.6 (H=13)

Jeff Heuerman (FanDuel: $4200, DraftKings: $2500)

6vs TEN3200.000000.00.0
7vs KC2200.000000.00.0
8@ IND2011.01101.
9PROJ-Dodds0.990. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
9PROJ-Tremblay0.880. (H=1)2.2 (H=3)
9PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Andrew Beck (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

6vs TEN1100.000000.00.0
7vs KC910.000000.00.0
8@ IND1400.000000.00.0
9PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
9PROJ-Tremblay0.4400.40.80.6 (H=0)0.8 (H=0)

Browns vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.7)20 (+0.7)20 (+1.0) (+0.0)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+1.2)22 (+1.2)22 (+0.9) (+0.0)
5Robbie Gould1444778.08.0
6Jason Myers2223888.08.0
8Mike Nugent2433999.09.0

Brandon McManus (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

6vs TEN3311101013.013.0
7vs KC0100000.00.0
8@ IND2211777.07.0

Browns vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+3.8)28 (+3.8)30 (+4.7)30 (+4.7)
Last 4 weeks FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+7.4)30 (+7.4)31 (+8.8)31 (+8.8)
5San Francisco 49ers318042200121219.019.0
6Seattle Seahawks2840603100889.09.0
8New England Patriots1331051201232321.021.0

Denver Broncos (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2900)

6vs TEN0.0020473000131323.023.0
7vs KC30.0027110000111.01.0
8@ IND15.0031840100667.07.0
9PROJ-Dodds20.803422.51.20.600. (H=22)9.5 (H=34)
9PROJ-Tremblay21.003442.21.20.500.4999.0 (H=20)9.0 (H=31)