Matchup Analysis: Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Eagles 20, Packers 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Philadelphia Eagles Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Eagles Offense25.3 (+3.0) (9)100 (-9) (17)265 (+18) (12)
Packers Defense11.7 (-10.7) (2)131 (+22) (25)197 (-49) (5)

Green Bay Packers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Packers Offense19.3 (-3.0) (24)89 (-19) (24)197 (-49) (27)
Eagles Defense26.0 (+3.7) (23)57 (-51) (2)294 (+46) (29)

Eagles Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Packers defense.

Philadelphia's running-back-by-committee approach continued for yet another week against Detroit in week three. All three of Miles Sanders, Darren Sproles, and Jordan Howard played between 33 and 36-percent of offensive snaps for the team. Of the three, Sanders carried the ball most, as he has in each of the team's first three games. Sanders tallied 13 carries for 53 yards (with 2 fumbles, 1 of which was lost,) Howard ran the ball 11 times for 37 yards and a touchdown, and Sproles ran the ball just 2 times for 4 yards. Sanders' issues with vision and decision-making as a ballcarrier stood out as a problem once again in week three, but he still tops the depth chart as the Eagles' favored back on the ground. Jordan Howard received the bulk of the short-yardage work for Philadelphia, including his first-quarter touchdown run that came from just one-yard out. After three full games of Philadelphia struggling to get the ground game going, there may be cause for concern here. Left guard Isaac Seumalo, specifically, has stood out as a weak-link on the offensive line. His poor performance has held back the Eagles' rushing attack when he goes up against elite interior defenders, and week four against the Packers will offer no reprieve.

Aside from one single run by Dalvin Cook in week two, the Packers have one of the league's strongest run defenses. Dalvin Cook broke off a 75-yard touchdown against the Packers in week two, but aside from this long run, the Packers have allowed just 4.0-yards-per-carry on the season. It is unfair to evaluate a defense based on only its best plays, but this represents Green Bay's run defense far better than the recorded 4.9-yards-per-carry mark that's currently on the books. On the defensive line, Kenny Clark has emerged as one of the most-impactful interior linemen in the NFL. Clark will likely line up across from the struggling Isaac Seumalo, and unless the Eagles plan to give Seumalo help throughout the game, this matchup has the potential to get ugly quickly. At linebacker, Blake Martinez is one of the league's most consistent defenders. The fourth-year player out of Stanford has not missed a single snap on defense yet this season, and he is by far the team-leader in tackles and run-stops. Overall, the Packers have a very balanced and deep defense spearheaded by one of the league's most disruptive interior defensive linemen. Philadelphia's struggles to run the football have been well-documented to this point in the season, and there is little hope that they right the ship here in week four against the Green Bay Packers.

Eagles Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Packers defense.

The absence of significant pieces in the Philadelphia passing game played a massive role in the Eagles 24-27 loss at home to the Lions in week three. Mack Hollins and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside unsuccessfully replaced Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson in Philadelphia's starting lineup while Jeffery and Jackson recovered from injury. Jackson is unlikely to play in week four, while Jeffery is hopeful to return for this matchup in Green Bay. Philadelphia's backup pass-catching unit performed miserably in week three, compiling 7 drops on 36 pass attempts. Quarterback Carson Wentz turned in an impressive performance in spite of the weakness on the outside, as he finished completing 19 passes for 259 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions against the Detroit Lions. Look for Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz to command the majority of the targets in week four, as these two are clearly the most reliable and established pass-catchers in this offense. On the offensive line, one of the league's best units enters week four as a mostly-healthy group. While both Andre Dillard and Jason Peters missed periods of last week's game, neither appear on Philadelphia's injury report ahead of the team's Thursday night clash with the Green Bay Packers. Isaac Seumalo stands out as the only cause for concern along this otherwise-impressive offensive line. Through three games, Seumalo's performance has been troubling, and he will have to face off with one of the league's best interior rushers here in week four.

The Green Bay Packers have opened the season with three straight victories, in large part, thanks to their defense. The Packers have yet to allow an opposing quarterback to surpass 250-yards passing in a game yet this season. Through three games, opposing quarterbacks have totaled just one passing touchdown to four interceptions against Green Bay's stout pass defense. The strength against the pass starts up front with a pass rush that ranks amongst the league's best. Kenny Clark, Preston Smith, and Za'Darius Smith make up, arguably, the league's best pass-rushing trio. With Clark playing on the interior and Za'Darius and Preston Smith rushing the passer on the edge, the Packers can seamlessly slot their top-three pass-rushers onto the field at any time. The strong pass rush is backed up by one of the league's most versatile secondaries. At cornerback, Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, and Tramon Williams all possess the rare ability to move all over the field as the matchups dictate, without seeing a drop-off in production. The impressive group of corners is backed up by two strong coverage safeties, Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage. Savage, a rookie out of Maryland, was explicitly drafted because of his prowess in coverage, and Amos, a recent free-agent acquisition, also consistently tops the charts as one of the NFL's best safeties in coverage. The depth on Green Bays defense is daunting, and beating this team through the air has proved to be exceptionally difficult early in the 2019 season.

Packers Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Eagles defense.

Following a 23-carry game in week two against the Minnesota Vikings, Packers' head coach Matt LaFleur made it clear that he believed the Packers were going to overwork Aaron Jones at that rate, and he intended to use Jamaal Williams more often in the coming weeks to prevent that from happening. LaFleur put his proverbial money where his mouth is in week three by playing Jamaal Williams 61-percent of the time, compared to Aaron Jones' mark for just 39-percent. Williams carried the ball 12 times to Jones' 10, and Williams outgained Jones 59 to 19 in week two. Jones, however, did find the end zone twice against the Broncos, both times on handoffs inside the 10-yard line. Green Bay's offensive line is one of the NFL's strongest run-blocking units, but the schedule has been daunting in the opening weeks of 2019. Following matchups with divisional-rivals Chicago and Minnesota, Green Bay played host to Denver as they took on Vic Fangio's new-look Broncos defense. In the long-term, Green Bay's run offense is likely to be one of the NFL's most productive. However, in the short-term, the distribution of carries is unclear from week-to-week. Aaron Jones is clearly the favored back for Matt LaFleur in this offense, but his cautious approach to the situation may limit Jones' involvement. Additionally, a week four clash with the Philadelphia Eagles' run defense makes for yet another difficult matchup to open up the season.

Philadelphia has allowed just 2.9-yards-per-carry through the first three weeks of the 2019 season. The team's success against the run is largely thanks to the bruisers up front. Brandon Graham has taken his play to a level many did not know he possessed in the early weeks of the 2019 season. This, coupled with the talent of Fletcher Cox and Derek Barnett, makes for one of the league's best defensive lines defending the run. Behind the stout defensive line, free-agent signing, Zach Brown's sure-tackling at linebacker has been critical to Philadelphia's success at preventing big plays on the ground. Through three games, the most rushing yards for any starting running back against Philadelphia is just 36 yards (on 20 carries) by Kerryon Johnson in week three. The Packers have yet to face off against anything except a top-tier run defense in 2019, and this trend will continue for at least one more week. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams will have their work cut out for them on Thursday night as they each will attempt to be the first running back to surpass 50-rushing yards on Philadelphia in the 2019 season.

Packers Passing offense

Great matchup vs. the Eagles defense.

The Green Bay passing attack has been underwhelming to open the 2019 season, relative to the expectations accompanying Matt LaFleur's appointment as the new head coach and play-caller. Through three games, Aaron Rodgers has yet to eclipse 250-yards passing in a game this season. Rodgers has excelled at avoiding negative plays this season, with 4-touchdown passes to 0-interceptions to this point in the season, which has been vital to the team's 3-0 start to the 2019 campaign. Much like years past, Davante Adams has been Aaron Rodgers' favorite target through the air, although the volume is substantially less than previous seasons. Adams has seen just 7-targets-per-game in 2019, down from a mark of over 11.25-targets-per-game in 2018. This decline in involvement can partially be attributed to the emergence of Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Green Bay's offense. Valdes-Scantling has matched Adams' 7-target-per-game mark through 3 games, a significant increase from just 4.6-targets-per-game in 2018. Much like the primary pass-catchers, Green Bay's offensive line has impressed to start the 2019 season. The Packers sport one of the best pairs of offensive tackles in the NFL with David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga keeping opposing edge-rushers from disrupting the pocket. On the interior, rookie Elgton Jenkins will replace Lane Taylor at left guard. Taylor was placed on the injured reserve following a biceps injury, forcing second-round pick Elgton Jenkins into a starting role. In limited work in 2019, Jenkins has impressed in pass protection, but this sample size is not yet large enough to draw any definitive conclusions of the impact he will have on the unit as a whole. As a whole, the Packers have failed to light up the scoreboards or stuff the stat sheet through the air, but they have been successful enough to win games, which matters most in the NFL. Thursday night against a depleted Philadelphia secondary offers the Packers their first chance for an offensive outburst in the 2019 season.

The Philadelphia Eagles have struggled mightily to defend the pass thus far in 2019. The Eagles had hoped that the unit would enter the 2019 season healthy, which would subsequently solve the issues of yesteryear. That has been far from the case to start the season, as Philadelphia ranks in the bottom-third in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, passing touchdowns allowed, and net-yards-per-attempt allowed. The Eagles pass-rush has failed to make a consistent impact in 2019 following a pair of injuries on the interior. Malik Jackson and Timmy Jernigan, two of the team's top three defensive tackles, both went down with injuries over the team's first two games, and neither will be returning to action for quite some time. In their absence, Hassan Ridgeway and Akeem Spence have failed to disrupt the pocket whatsoever. Without an impactful pass rush, the shortcomings in Philadelphia's secondary have been magnified. An already-struggling unit will enter Thursday night's game even weaker. Starting cornerback Ronald Darby is expected to miss a few games due to a hamstring injury. Darby had not performed well in the opening weeks of the season, but his replacement, Rasul Douglas, has not been any better. Philadelphia's pass defense has been miserable to start the 2019 season, allowing 4 different 100+ yard receivers through just 3 games. A matchup against Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, one of the league's best quarterback-wide receiver duos, will offer no reprieve for a reeling pass defense.

Packers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-9.1)3 (-9.1)2 (-9.6)2 (-10.3)
1Mitchell Trubisky73264522801311011.511.59.29.2
2Kirk Cousins65143223012217015.215.210.911.9
3Joe Flacco7320292130125010.

Carson Wentz (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $5600)

1vs WAS7528393133045028.
2@ ATL7525432311233119.919.919.519.5
3vs DET76193625920433024.324.321.721.7
4PROJ-Dodds22372661.61.13100. (H=47)20.2 (H=65)
4PROJ-Tremblay23382551.41.13110.118.918.918.9 (H=42)18.9 (H=58)
4PROJ-Bloom22342301.81.34220.220.820.820.8 (H=49)20.8 (H=68)

Packers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+6.4)29 (+10.0)30 (+8.4)30 (+10.6)
1Tarik Cohen510001084904.912.98.912.9
1David Montgomery286180112704.
2Dalvin Cook472015413337025.128.126.631.1
2Alexander Mattison8425000002.
3Phillip Lindsay41218125449025.
3Royce Freeman3615630541007.311.39.311.3

Miles Sanders (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4500)

1vs WAS361125021.0202.
2@ ATL351028043.0903.
3vs DET261353042.073012.614.611.613.6
4PROJ-Dodds11450.22.3210.18.410.79.6 (H=17)10.8 (H=27)
4PROJ-Tremblay9380.22.2170. (H=14)9.6 (H=22)
4PROJ-Bloom10340.32.0210. (H=15)10.0 (H=23)

Jordan Howard (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4600)

1vs WAS17644032.01105.
2@ ATL18818011.0802.
3vs DET251137110.0009.
4PROJ-Dodds8330.20.8605.15.95.5 (H=6)5.9 (H=9)
4PROJ-Tremblay7270.21.1804.75.85.3 (H=6)5.8 (H=9)
4PROJ-Bloom9370.40.0006.16.16.1 (H=8)6.1 (H=9)

Darren Sproles (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3500)

1vs WAS23947033.01606.39.39.811.3
2@ ATL2800032.0500.
3vs DET2724010.0000.
4PROJ-Dodds3140.11.8130. (H=6)5.8 (H=12)
4PROJ-Tremblay3140.11.5120. (H=6)5.4 (H=10)
4PROJ-Bloom250.12.0160. (H=5)5.4 (H=10)

Packers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-8.9)2 (-13.9)3 (-12.0)2 (-14.6)
1Allen Robinson70137102000010.217.213.720.2
1Taylor Gabriel67522400002.
2Stefon Diggs587149100010.911.99.410.9
2Adam Thielen64857500007.512.510.012.5
3Courtland Sutton65858700008.713.711.213.7
3Emmanuel Sanders58421000001.

Nelson Agholor (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5500)

1vs WAS6052.01100001.
2@ ATL78118.0107100016.724.720.727.7
3vs DET75128.0502000172519.024.0
4PROJ-Dodds3.7510.40007.511.29.4 (H=15)11.2 (H=23)
4PROJ-Tremblay4.0460.30006.410.48.4 (H=12)10.4 (H=21)
4PROJ-Bloom5.0390.50006.911.99.4 (H=15)11.9 (H=26)

Alshon Jeffery (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $6100)

1vs WAS6075.049112117.122.119.622.1
2@ ATL600.000000000.00.0
3vs DET000.000000000.00.0
4PROJ-Dodds3.7500.30006.810.58.7 (H=12)10.5 (H=19)
4PROJ-Tremblay4.6590.30207.912.510.2 (H=16)12.5 (H=26)
4PROJ-Bloom4.0430.50007.311.39.3 (H=14)11.3 (H=21)

Mack Hollins (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3500)

1vs WAS1000.000000000.00.0
2@ ATL6985.05000005107.510.0
3vs DET7574.06200006.
4PROJ-Dodds2.2320.20004.46.65.5 (H=7)6.6 (H=15)
4PROJ-Tremblay2.1270.10003.35.44.4 (H=5)5.4 (H=10)
4PROJ-Bloom3.0400.20005.28.26.7 (H=10)8.2 (H=21)

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4000)

1vs WAS500.000000000.00.0
2@ ATL7541.0400000.
3vs DET5531.0100000121.52.0
4PROJ-Dodds1.0140.1000232.5 (H=1)3.0 (H=3)
4PROJ-Tremblay1.4180.10002.43.83.1 (H=2)3.8 (H=5)
4PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Packers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-4.8)4 (-6.2)1 (-6.2)3 (-6.8)
1Adam Shaheen3421600.
2Kyle Rudolph6553900.
3Noah Fant46333703.

Zach Ertz (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $6200)

1vs WAS6275.05405.410.47.910.4
2@ ATL81168.07207.
3vs DET7674.06406.410.48.410.4
4PROJ-Dodds5.9680. (H=23)15.1 (H=35)
4PROJ-Tremblay5.0520.37129.5 (H=14)12.0 (H=23)
4PROJ-Bloom6.0710.49.515.512.5 (H=24)15.5 (H=37)

Dallas Goedert (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2800)

1vs WAS4132.01601.
2@ ATL000.000000.00.0
3vs DET910.000000.00.0
4PROJ-Dodds1.8200.23.254.1 (H=5)5.0 (H=11)
4PROJ-Tremblay1.5140.123.52.8 (H=2)3.5 (H=6)
4PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Packers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6T (-2.6)6T (-2.6)5 (-3.3) (+0.0)
1Eddy Pineiro1100333.03.0
2Dan Bailey1212444.04.0
3Brandon McManus1112444.04.0

Jake Elliott (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs WAS1133666.06.0
2@ ATL2200667.07.0
3vs DET1133666.06.0

Packers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7T (-2.4)7T (-2.4)7 (-1.9)7 (-1.9)
1Chicago Bears1021350000559.09.0
2Minnesota Vikings2133520200666.06.0
3Denver Broncos2731200000000.00.0

Philadelphia Eagles (FanDuel: $3300, DraftKings: $2900)

1vs WAS27.0039810000111.01.0
2@ ATL24.0036713000777.07.0
3vs DET27.0028700000002.02.0
4PROJ-Dodds23.503572.50.90.600. (H=23)8.2 (H=26)
4PROJ-Tremblay24.753642.41.10.600. (H=23)8.3 (H=26)

Eagles vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.1)25 (+2.1)25 (+2.1)24 (+2.8)
1Case Keenum6730443803000031.
2Matt Ryan6627433203323025.325.322.125.1
3Matthew Stafford6418322011031014.

Aaron Rodgers (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $6000)

1@ CHI64183020310380151512.912.9
2vs MIN7422342092010018.518.514.415.4
3vs DEN571729235101-1015.715.713.313.3
4PROJ-Dodds23362711.80.52110.121.921.921.9 (H=54)21.9 (H=69)
4PROJ-Tremblay23372701.71.1180.120.620.620.6 (H=49)20.6 (H=62)
4PROJ-Bloom20282281.90.52100.220.720.720.7 (H=49)20.7 (H=63)

Eagles vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-5.1)5 (-4.1)5 (-4.4)5 (-4.5)
1Chris Thompson4331001076807.814.811.314.8
1Derrius Guice2410180332003.
2Devonta Freeman4111220434206.
2Ito Smith254320321304.
3Kerryon Johnson4820361117010.311.310.811.3
3J.D. McKissic6144000004.

Aaron Jones (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6300)

1@ CHI381339011.0003.
2vs MIN4323116164.0340212523.028.0
3vs DEN221019211.04014.315.314.815.3
4PROJ-Dodds14610.62.2160.111.914.113.0 (H=24)14.1 (H=31)
4PROJ-Tremblay14540.52.4180.110.813.212.0 (H=21)13.2 (H=27)
4PROJ-Bloom16700.72.0100.112.814.813.8 (H=27)14.8 (H=33)

Jamaal Williams (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $4300)

1@ CHI2650022.01501.
2vs MIN35928043.013110.113.111.613.1
3vs DEN351259022.02708.610.69.610.6
4PROJ-Dodds8290.12.6200. (H=11)8.7 (H=19)
4PROJ-Tremblay8310.22.5190. (H=13)9.3 (H=22)
4PROJ-Bloom10410.32.0160. (H=16)10.1 (H=25)

Eagles vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+7.7)29 (+9.3)29 (+8.6)29 (+12.0)
1Terry McLaurin6275125100018.523.521.026.5
1Trey Quinn65643310009.313.311.313.3
2Julio Jones54105106200022.627.625.130.6
2Calvin Ridley42108105100016.524.520.527.5
3Marvin Jones5396101100016.
3Danny Amendola23543700003.

Davante Adams (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $7500)

1@ CHI6284.03600003.
2vs MIN7197.0106000010.617.614.120.6
3vs DEN5244.05600005.
4PROJ-Dodds5.8800.600011.617.414.5 (H=25)17.4 (H=37)
4PROJ-Tremblay5.2700.40009.414.612.0 (H=18)14.6 (H=27)
4PROJ-Bloom6.0880.800013.619.616.6 (H=32)19.6 (H=46)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4800)

1@ CHI4264.05201005.
2vs MIN6563.01900001.
3vs DEN50106.099100015.921.918.921.9
4PROJ-Dodds4.7650.40008.913.611.3 (H=22)13.6 (H=38)
4PROJ-Tremblay5.3710.502010.315.613.0 (H=28)15.6 (H=48)
4PROJ-Bloom5.0710.500010.115.112.6 (H=26)15.1 (H=45)

Geronimo Allison (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4500)

1@ CHI3200.000000000.00.0
2vs MIN3454.02510008.512.58.511.5
3vs DEN2631.0-10000-
4PROJ-Dodds2.2280.200046.25.1 (H=6)6.2 (H=10)
4PROJ-Tremblay2.0280.2000465.0 (H=6)6.0 (H=9)
4PROJ-Bloom1.050.10001.12.11.6 (H=0)2.1 (H=1)

Eagles vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.7)14 (-1.1)14 (-0.9)14 (-1.4)
1Vernon Davis557459111.915.913.915.9
2Austin Hooper50643403.
3Logan Thomas19111501.

Jimmy Graham (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ CHI3563.030191210.512.0
2vs MIN5420.000000.00.0
3vs DEN2410.000000.00.0
4PROJ-Dodds2.5300. (H=8)6.7 (H=14)
4PROJ-Tremblay2.3270. (H=7)6.2 (H=12)
4PROJ-Bloom2.0150. (H=4)4.7 (H=7)

Marcedes Lewis (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ CHI3432.01401.
2vs MIN3110.000000.00.0
3vs DEN3121.01901.
4PROJ-Dodds1.2150. (H=2)3.3 (H=6)
4PROJ-Tremblay1.5180.234.53.8 (H=5)4.5 (H=10)
4PROJ-Bloom1.0130. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)

Robert Tonyan (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ CHI2011.02802.
2vs MIN2200.000000.00.0
3vs DEN1731.0400.
4PROJ-Dodds0.8100. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
4PROJ-Tremblay1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
4PROJ-Bloom1.0100121.5 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)

Eagles vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22T (+1.7)22T (+1.7)26 (+2.4) (+0.0)
1Dustin Hopkins22339911.011.0
2Matt Bryant1233668.08.0
3Matt Prater2333999.09.0

Mason Crosby (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ CHI1111444.04.0
2vs MIN0033333.03.0
3vs DEN23339911.011.0

Eagles vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24T (+1.6)24T (+1.6)21T (+0.7)21T (+0.7)
1Washington Redskins3243610000110.00.0
2Atlanta Falcons20286321009910.010.0
3Detroit Lions2437330201131313.013.0

Green Bay Packers (FanDuel: $3800, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ CHI3.00254510007714.014.0
2vs MIN16.00421122009910.010.0
3vs DEN16.0031061200121213.013.0
4PROJ-Dodds19.103412.510.700.510.410.410.4 (H=30)10.4 (H=37)
4PROJ-Tremblay20.253462.51.10.800.510.510.510.5 (H=30)10.5 (H=37)