Matchup Analysis: Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Titans 21, Falcons 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Tennessee Titans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Titans Offense22.3 (-0.0) (15)112 (+3) (12)195 (-52) (28)
Falcons Defense25.0 (+2.7) (21)100 (-8) (12)211 (-35) (8)

Atlanta Falcons Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Falcons Offense20.0 (-2.3) (21)74 (-34) (27)295 (+48) (6)
Titans Defense17.3 (-5.0) (8)119 (+10) (21)190 (-57) (3)

Titans Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Falcons defense.

Derrick Henry has been the heart of a run-first Titans offense to start the season. He is averaging 17 rushes per game with a rushing touchdown in each outing as Henry has, for the most part, looked very much the part of a workhorse running back. He is still splitting snaps with Dion Lewis, but Henry is the clear go-to back on first and second down while also providing some limited upside in the passing game. Lewis is a non-factor from a rushing perspective, while Marcus Mariota will continue to be a threat with his legs as he is averaging 30 rushing yards per game. The Titans offensive line looked terrible last week, particularly as Derick Henry struggled to find a rhythm against the stout Jaguars defense. However, run blocking has been the strong suit of this unit as they can provide competent protection for Henry. Taylor Lewan remains out for just one more game, and right guard Kevin Pamphile continues to be sidelined with a knee injury. Backup right guard Jamil Douglas had one of the worst games an offensive lineman can have last week as he was simply dominated on a play by play basis by Calais Campbell. While Pamphile isn’t elite himself, his return would represent an upgrade to this group’s chances on Sunday.

The Falcons defense has been inconsistent against the run this season as their stats net out to right around league average. They ran into the run-heavy Vikings offense in Week 1 where Dalvin Cook hammered them for 111 yards and two touchdowns. They followed up in Week 2 with a dominant performance over a stout Eagles offensive line, limiting their running backs to just 46 rushing yards. Then, last week, Marlon Mack was held in check for most of the game until breaking off a 26-yard run late in the fourth quarter to pad his stat line. The Falcons had a scare when Grady Jarrett was forced from last week’s game with a toe injury, but he is expected to suit up this week as the injury was relatively minor. Jarrett, along with Tyeler Davison, has been very impressive on the interior of this defensive line. Linebacker Deion Jones has also made some great plays against the run, including a couple of tackles for loss last week against the Colts. The front seven has and should continue to be a strength of this unit, however, they suffered a big loss in the secondary as safety Keanu Neal will miss the rest of the season with an Achilles injury. His absence will leave a big gap over the top, making this defense even more susceptible to a big run from Derrick Henry if he can make it to the second level.

Titans Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Falcons defense.

The Titans passing offense looked bad last week against the Jaguars. While Marcus Mariota did pass for over 300 yards, he was far from graceful in the moment. Mariota was constantly under pressure and wild passing the ball, as nearly a third of his passes were completely uncatchable. He has been indecisive with the football in all three games this season, and it came to a head last week as the indecisiveness combined with a breakdown on the offensive line resulted in Mariota being sacked nine times while. Ryan Tannehill remains the backup, but that situation will be worth monitoring if poor play from Mariota continues. The only reliable offensive weapon in the Titans passing offense has been Delanie Walker, who has been targeted at least six times in all three games while averaging just over five receptions and 53 receiving yards per game with two touchdowns on the season. Those stats are not eye-popping, but the usage is consistent for such a low floor passing offense. Corey Davis continues to disappoint while A.J. Brown’s production has trended in the wrong direction since Week 1. Adam Humphries did see a huge bump in usage last week as he came close to 100 receiving yards with six receptions, but he too is tough to trust after amassing three receptions for four yards in the first two games of the season.

Top Falcons safety Keanu Neal was carted off with an Achilles injury last week and will be expected to miss the remainder of the season. Neal’s absence will mark a huge gap to fill for this Falcons secondary that has been trending in the wrong direction. While Week 1 was an outlier since the Vikings attempted just 10 passes, Week 2 was solid performance against an injury-laden Eagles offense missing two of its top targets on offense. Week 3, however, was more of a struggle as they allowed Jacoby Brissett to pass for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. Of the 310 passing yards, 114 of those went to tight ends last week--an encouraging sign for Delanie Walker, especially considering the absence of Neal in this secondary. Walker should have a positive matchup this week. Corey Davis should see tough coverage from Desmond Trufant, while Adam Humphries should have an advantageous matchup from the slot against Damontae Kazee. With all that said, the success of the Titans offense will lean heavily on how their offensive line performs. The Falcons pass rush has been impressive as they can bring strong pressure from both the interior and edges. The Titans pass protection has been absolutely abysmal, especially after their nine-sack outing last week. At this point, matchups in the secondary may be trivial if this Titans offensive line and Marcus Mariota cannot make significant improvements.

Falcons Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The Falcons rushing offense has yet to exceed 100 rushing yards in a game this season, but last week against the Colts was certainly an improvement as Devonta Freeman had a season-high 16 carries for 88 yards. Freeman’s usage has steadily increased since Week 1, which could be seen as encouraging if not for the fact that he actually had no competition for touches last week with Ito Smith getting knocked out with a concussion early in the first quarter. Smith is in the concussion protocol, and his status will be in question until he clears through the protocol. Leading into Week 3, Smith was nearly splitting snaps evenly with Freeman while eating into his rushing workload. While Freeman is still the lead back and should get most of the workload, a healthy Smith will continue to eat into his workload. However, with both Smith and third running back Kenjon Barner questionable for this week, Freeman could be in for a massive workload. The offensive line looked decent last week as they were fortunate to have right tackle Kaleb McGary suit back up after suffering a knee injury in Week 2. This should be an above-average unit if everyone remains healthy.

The Titans run defense was suffocating for 55 minutes of last week’s game until Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette broke off a long run late in the fourth quarter. Up to that point, the Titans hed held Fournette to negative yardage on 12 carries. The Titans have given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, and if not for the two long runs by Fournette and Jordan Wilkins (in Week 2), this run defense would easily rank within the top-5. DaQuan Jones and Jurrell Casey offer a nice one-two punch on the interior. Linebacker Rashaan Evans has shown improvement against the run over the first three games, while Jayon Brown continues to play well in running situations. The big plays this defense has allowed can’t be totally ignored though, as they certainly have shown susceptibility to being worn down due, in part, to how terrible the Titans offense has played at times. The Falcons have a competent offensive line that should be at a slight, but not insurmountable disadvantage here.

Falcons Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Titans defense.

Matt Ryan has had an up and down start to his 2019 campaign in charge of this Falcons passing offense. While he has passed for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns in all three starts, he has also racked up six interceptions--just one short of his season-long mark of seven interceptions in 2018. Some of these picks have been extremely bad looks, including an interception in the end zone from last week’s game. On the flip side, Ryan has looked prodigious in pockets of play--including during the second half of last week when he threw for three touchdowns while completing 22-of-23 pass attempts. Two of those touchdowns went to tight end Austin Hooper, who has been a consistent target for this offense. The other went to Julio Jones, who has averaged 10 targets per week, has at least one touchdown in every game, and is coming off back-to-back outings with over 100 receiving yards. Calvin Ridley was on a similar pace until he was absolutely forgotten last week, finishing with just one catch from one target for six yards.

This Titans passing defense has some talent, but they were hamstrung by poor play from their offense and special teams in last week’s loss to the Jaguars. This defense has looked good to start the season. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging just 212 passing yards per game while this secondary has racked up four interceptions, all coming in the first two games. Logan Ryan has been the best player amongst Titans defensive backs as he has rarely given up a big gain to opposing slot receivers. Malcolm Butler has been the weaker cornerback to start the year though, as he has been susceptible to a few big plays thus far. Look for Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones to both see advantageous looks when lining up against Butler. While this secondary has held tight ends relatively in check from a yardage perspective, they have also allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end in all three games to start the season. Red zone weapon Austin Hooper will be a viable threat to continuing that streak this week. Running backs have not been so lucky though, as linebacker Jayon Brown’s impressive coverage has led to no running back amassing more than 26 receiving yards in any of the first three games.

Falcons vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-1.3)12 (-1.3)16 (+0.2)14 (-0.1)
1Kirk Cousins53810981064115.315.314.314.3
2Carson Wentz7525432311233119.919.919.519.5
3Jacoby Brissett7128373102034023.923.920.823.8

Marcus Mariota (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $5100)

1@ CLE59142424830324026.826.824.324.3
2vs IND60192815410532014.914.913.413.4
3@ JAX80234030400634018.618.615.618.6
4PROJ-Dodds19302141.20.85250.117.817.817.8 (H=42)17.8 (H=57)
4PROJ-Tremblay14231540.90.65220.113.513.513.5 (H=26)13.5 (H=35)
4PROJ-Bloom18291751.10.65270.115.915.915.9 (H=34)15.9 (H=47)

Falcons vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.0)15 (-0.7)15 (-0.8)14 (-0.4)
1Dalvin Cook36211112229024.
1Alexander Mattison12949000004.
2Miles Sanders351028043903.
2Jordan Howard18818011802.
3Marlon Mack44167413214014.816.815.816.8
3Nyheim Hines18230432602.

Derrick Henry (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $6300)

1@ CLE361984121.075127.928.928.428.9
2vs IND301581132.012015.317.316.317.3
3@ JAX381744121.02010.611.611.111.6
4PROJ-Dodds18760.71.6150.113.915.514.7 (H=30)15.5 (H=36)
4PROJ-Tremblay18730.61.712012.113.813.0 (H=24)13.8 (H=29)
4PROJ-Bloom16600. (H=22)12.9 (H=26)

Dion Lewis (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ CLE2637043.0601.
2vs IND3039011.0501.
3@ JAX42313011.070232.53.0
4PROJ-Dodds4150.11.81203.35.14.2 (H=4)5.1 (H=9)
4PROJ-Tremblay3120.11.51102.94.43.7 (H=3)4.4 (H=7)
4PROJ-Bloom3901.0601.52.52.0 (H=1)2.5 (H=2)

Falcons vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12 (-3.1)8T (-4.8)10 (-3.9)8 (-5.1)
1Adam Thielen473343100010.313.311.813.3
1Stefon Diggs32223700003.
2Nelson Agholor78118107100016.724.720.727.7
2Mack Hollins69855000005.010.07.510.0
3T.Y. Hilton3710865100012.520.516.520.5
3Zach Pascal313253100011.313.312.313.3

Corey Davis (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4200)

1@ CLE4530.000000000.00.0
2vs IND5053.03800003.
3@ JAX5943.04400004.
4PROJ-Dodds3.1410.20005.38.46.9 (H=10)8.4 (H=18)
4PROJ-Tremblay2.2300.20004.26.45.3 (H=6)6.4 (H=11)
4PROJ-Bloom4.0520.30007119.0 (H=17)11.0 (H=30)

A.J. Brown (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ CLE2643.01000000101311.516.0
2vs IND2753.02500002.
3@ JAX4051.0400000.
4PROJ-Dodds2.6360.20004.87.46.1 (H=9)7.4 (H=17)
4PROJ-Tremblay2.5330.20004.575.8 (H=8)7.0 (H=15)
4PROJ-Bloom2.0210.10002.74.73.7 (H=4)4.7 (H=7)

Adam Humphries (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4000)

1@ CLE2211.0500000.
2vs IND3422.0-10110021.02.0
3@ JAX5496.09300009.315.312.315.3
4PROJ-Dodds2.9300.20004.27.15.7 (H=7)7.2 (H=15)
4PROJ-Tremblay2.5280.20204.26.75.5 (H=7)6.8 (H=13)
4PROJ-Bloom3.0200.10002.65.64.2 (H=4)5.7 (H=10)

Tajae Sharpe (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ CLE3020.000000000.00.0
2vs IND3222.02400002.
3@ JAX3932.0700000798.09.0
4PROJ-Dodds1.3180.10002.43.73.1 (H=2)3.7 (H=6)
4PROJ-Tremblay1.3160.10002.23.52.9 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
4PROJ-Bloom2.0240.1000354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=10)

Darius Jennings (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ CLE500.000000000.00.0
2vs IND111.01100001.
3@ JAX620.000000000.00.0
4PROJ-Dodds0.3300000.30.60.5 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
4PROJ-Tremblay0.5700000.71.21.0 (H=0)1.3 (H=1)

Falcons vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)12T (-0.8)16 (+0.1)18 (+0.3)19 (+0.5)
1Irv Smith2600000.
2Zach Ertz811687207.
3Eric Ebron36434704.

Delanie Walker (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4800)

1@ CLE2965.055217.522.520.022.5
2vs IND3464.03903.
3@ JAX4697.06406.413.49.913.4
4PROJ-Dodds4.6480. (H=17)11.8 (H=29)
4PROJ-Tremblay4.4440.46.811.29.0 (H=15)11.2 (H=27)
4PROJ-Bloom5.0470. (H=17)12.1 (H=31)

Jonnu Smith (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2800)

1@ CLE3711.0701.
2vs IND2900.000000.00.0
3@ JAX4132.0200243.04.0
4PROJ-Dodds1.1100. (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
4PROJ-Tremblay0.8100. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
4PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Falcons vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13T (+0.1)13T (+0.1)16 (+0.0) (+0.0)
1Dan Bailey0044444.04.0
2Jake Elliott2200667.07.0
3Adam Vinatieri22339910.010.0

Cairo Santos (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ CLE2255111113.013.0
2vs IND1222556.06.0
3@ JAX0011111.01.0

Falcons vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15T (+0.2)15T (+0.2)21T (+0.7)21T (+0.7)
1Minnesota Vikings1234542100101014.014.0
2Philadelphia Eagles2436713000777.07.0
3Indianapolis Colts2439701000222.02.0

Tennessee Titans (FanDuel: $3500, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ CLE13.0034653001171723.023.0
2vs IND19.0028831100778.08.0
3@ JAX20.0029200000001.01.0
4PROJ-Dodds22.703602.510.600. (H=23)8.6 (H=31)
4PROJ-Tremblay24.753662.51.30.600. (H=24)8.8 (H=33)

Titans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-2.7)10 (-2.7)10 (-2.5)9 (-3.4)
1Baker Mayfield7325382851300015.315.312.412.4
2Jacoby Brissett72172814631725020.820.817.318.3
3Gardner Minshew54203020420418020.

Matt Ryan (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $5900)

1@ MIN78334630422224023.623.620.623.6
2vs PHI6627433203323025.325.322.125.1
3@ IND6129343043123026.526.523.526.5
4PROJ-Dodds25382811.90.9290. (H=54)22.2 (H=72)
4PROJ-Tremblay24392771.91.3290.121.621.621.6 (H=51)21.6 (H=69)
4PROJ-Bloom23342672.41230.122.922.922.9 (H=57)22.9 (H=76)

Titans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-2.8)11 (-2.6)9 (-2.5)9 (-2.9)
1Nick Chubb5117750431008.511.510.011.5
1Dontrell Hilliard13141211407.
2Jordan Wilkins11582011408.
2Marlon Mack4920510321206.
3Leonard Fournette5415660862609.
3Ryquell Armstead000000000.

Devonta Freeman (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ MIN39819043.01203.
2vs PHI411122043.04206.
3@ IND551688043.0709.512.511.012.5
4PROJ-Dodds14570.42.8190.110.613.412.0 (H=23)13.4 (H=35)
4PROJ-Tremblay13570.42.8210.110.813.612.2 (H=24)13.6 (H=36)
4PROJ-Bloom15500.43.0140.19.412.410.9 (H=20)12.4 (H=31)

Ito Smith (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ MIN39631011.090454.55.0
2vs PHI25432032.01304.
3@ IND310000.000000.00.0
4PROJ-Dodds6250.11.41004.15.54.8 (H=6)5.5 (H=10)
4PROJ-Tremblay4170.11.070343.5 (H=3)4.0 (H=5)
4PROJ-Bloom6190. (H=6)5.3 (H=9)

Titans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-3.6)7 (-5.4)7 (-4.4)6 (-6.7)
1Jarvis Landry737467011007.711.79.711.7
1Odell Beckham731177100007.114.110.614.1
2T.Y. Hilton656443100010.314.312.314.3
2Parris Campbell18111210007.
3D.J. Chark385476100013.617.615.617.6
3Dede Westbrook43954601405.010.07.510.0

Julio Jones (FanDuel: $8500, DraftKings: $7800)

1@ MIN53116.03110009.
2vs PHI54105.0106200022.627.625.130.6
3@ IND4698.0128100018.826.822.829.8
4PROJ-Dodds6.2860.600012.218.415.3 (H=26)18.4 (H=39)
4PROJ-Tremblay5.6770.500010.716.313.5 (H=21)16.3 (H=32)
4PROJ-Bloom6.0880.900014.220.217.2 (H=32)20.2 (H=46)

Calvin Ridley (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ MIN6164.064100012.416.414.416.4
2vs PHI42108.0105100016.524.520.527.5
3@ IND4611.0600000.
4PROJ-Dodds4.2520.50008.212.410.3 (H=19)12.4 (H=31)
4PROJ-Tremblay3.3440.30006.29.57.9 (H=12)9.5 (H=19)
4PROJ-Bloom4.0660.600010.214.212.2 (H=26)14.2 (H=39)

Mohamed Sanu (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4100)

1@ MIN6665.05700005.710.78.210.7
2vs PHI5574.01600001.
3@ IND5066.07501207.713.710.713.7
4PROJ-Dodds4.0450.31206.510.58.5 (H=14)10.5 (H=28)
4PROJ-Tremblay3.7450.30206.510.28.4 (H=13)10.2 (H=27)
4PROJ-Bloom5.0510.30006.911.99.4 (H=17)11.9 (H=35)

Justin Hardy (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ MIN2254.04100004.
2vs PHI1110.000000000.00.0
3@ IND511.0600000.
4PROJ-Dodds1.0120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
4PROJ-Tremblay1.3160.10002.23.52.9 (H=2)3.5 (H=5)
4PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Russell Gage (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ MIN1321.01301-
2vs PHI910.000000000.00.0
3@ IND900.000000000.00.0
4PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
4PROJ-Tremblay0.5700200.91.41.2 (H=0)1.4 (H=1)

Titans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+2.5)22 (+1.7)24 (+2.1)21 (+1.4)
1David Njoku66643719.713.711.713.7
2Eric Ebron34432518.511.510.011.5
3James OShaughnessy42321817.

Austin Hooper (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $4300)

1@ MIN6299.07707.716.712.216.7
2vs PHI5064.03403.
3@ IND5476.066218.624.621.624.6
4PROJ-Dodds5.0480. (H=15)12.2 (H=35)
4PROJ-Tremblay4.8460.4711.89.4 (H=15)11.8 (H=33)
4PROJ-Bloom4.0420.46.610.68.6 (H=12)10.6 (H=27)

Luke Stocker (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ MIN2210.000000.00.0
2vs PHI3011.0400.
3@ IND2343.01201.
4PROJ-Dodds1. (H=1)2.4 (H=3)
4PROJ-Tremblay1.3130. (H=2)3.2 (H=5)
4PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Titans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-2.9)5 (-2.9)6T (-3.0) (+0.0)
1Austin Seibert0012111.01.0
2Adam Vinatieri0013111.01.0
3Josh Lambo22228810.010.0

Matt Bryant (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ MIN0000000.00.0
2vs PHI1233668.08.0
3@ IND1133666.06.0

Titans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20T (+0.9)20T (+0.9)15T (-0.3)15T (-0.3)
1Cleveland Browns4333940010660.00.0
2Indianapolis Colts1724240000445.05.0
3Jacksonville Jaguars734090100111115.015.0

Atlanta Falcons (FanDuel: $3900, DraftKings: $2900)

1@ MIN28.0026910000110.00.0
2vs PHI20.00286321009910.010.0
3@ IND27.0037910000111.01.0
4PROJ-Dodds21.703142. (H=20)8.3 (H=26)
4PROJ-Tremblay20.753071.80.80.700. (H=22)8.8 (H=29)