Matchup Analysis: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Patriots 25, Bills 18

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

New England Patriots Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Patriots Offense35.3 (+13.0) (2)98 (-11) (20)311 (+64) (2)
Bills Defense15.7 (-6.7) (5)88 (-20) (8)212 (-35) (9)

Buffalo Bills Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bills Offense22.0 (-0.3) (17)151 (+42) (5)240 (-7) (19)
Patriots Defense5.7 (-16.7) (1)37 (-72) (1)162 (-84) (1)

Patriots Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Bills defense.

2019 has been a rough start for Sony Michel as he is averaging just 2.4 yards per carry so far this season and saw just 9 carries last week against the Jets. The issue is not all Michel’s fault as he is a downhill runner and with the offensive line issues the Patriots are having with center David Andrews out, Yodny Cajuste out, and Isaiah Wynn out, this Patriots offensive line has been decimated with injuries so far this season. The good news is that the team is expected to get left tackle Marcus Cannon who had been out with a shoulder injury. All the offensive line issues have caused Bill Belichick to call out the offensive line in defense of Sony Michel stating that they simply need to block better. At the moment, Rex Burkhead’s slashing off-tackle running style better suits this offense as it can hide the inefficiencies on the offensive line.

The Bills rushing attack so far this season has been an up and down unit as it struggled in containing Saquon Barkley, but for the most part, has kept defenses in check throughout the season. Last week, the team held Joe Mixon to 4.0 yards per carry and the team has only allowed one rushing touchdown this season which was to Barkley. This is a unit that took a significant hit this past week as defensive tackle Harrison Phillips tore his ACL, which will put a significant amount of pressure on Ed Oliver who has looked good so far this season but has only taken four snaps at the nose tackle position. This will likely force Star Lotulelei into a bigger role at nose tackle which could cause issues as he has had consistency issues throughout his career and has been a rotational player the past few seasons. This is a unit that is likely an average unit until it can prove that it can get back to its strengths without Harrison Phillips.

Patriots Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Bills defense.

Tom Brady continues to show at age 42 that he is largely matchup proof. Brady has thrown for 300 yards in two of his three games so far this season and has thrown for 7 touchdowns on the season. Even without Julian Edelman for half the game, and without James White for the entire game, this was an offense that seemingly did not miss a beat as Jakobi Meyers stepped into his first meaningful role of the year catching two passes. This is a unit that will continue to be one of the best in the league for most of the season even without Antonio Brown who the team cut before last week.

The Bills passing offense continues to be a nightmare for opposing defenses for the second straight season. This past week, the Bills were suffocating the Bengals but did show some vulnerability in the second half in garbage time allowing Andy Dalton to lead a comeback which ultimately fell just a little bit short due to a late score from the Bills. This is a unit that is led by Tre’Davious White who is one of the most underrated corners in the league as he added two interceptions this past week. At the safety position, the Bills have two of the best pass defenders in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer which make it difficult for opponents to have consistent success throwing the deep ball. This is the most difficult matchup that Brady and the Patriots have faced so far this season and the Bills pass defense is a big reason they are off to a 3-0 start.

Bills Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

Frank Gore at age 36 is defied logic this past week rushing for 5.6 yards per carry and scoring a late touchdown to seal the win against the Bengals. Gore has never been a flashy runner but continues to be a smart runner who can find the hole if it is available. With Devin Singletary likely still out, Gore will continue to see the bulk of the carries for this offense although we could see T.J. Yeldon see an enhanced role as he had eight carries in his first week seeing the field with his new team as the team may look to get more explosive off-tackle carries against this tough Patriots defense.

The Patriots defense might be the best all-around defense that the NFL has to offer so far this season. Some of it may be schedule related as they have faced opponents with a combined record of 0-9, but the defense has suffocated the opponents thus far holding them to just 36 rushing yards per game and 2.3 yards per carry. This is a team that has talent at all levels of the defense led by the defensive tackle rotation of Adam Butler and Danny Shelton who have done a tremendous job of keeping blockers off of Kyle Van Noy, D’onta Hightower and Jamie Collins who is having a re-emergence. Patrick Chung continues to be one of the best safeties against the run. Chung is a special player in that he allows the team to play essentially a Nickel or Dime defense without losing the run integrity with him serving essentially as a linebacker. This is a unit that essentially has pitched back to back shutouts if not for special teams and an interception late in the game returned for a touchdown. They have only allowed 3 offensive points on the year.

Bills Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Patriots defense.

Josh Allen is a player who is difficult to figure out, as he’s been better as a passer this season, but he’s a player who still at times shows his inconsistency. While on the season he’s been incredibly consistent in his first three games as all three games have been between 63.3% and 64.9% completion percentage and between 243 and 254 yards, he’s a player who has halves of football where he looks fantastic and other halves where he struggles as evidenced by his first-half struggles in week 1 and his second-half struggles in weeks 2 and 3 which almost caused the Bengals to come back for the win last week. A big issue for the Bills is the lack of receiving talent outside of John Brown who has been fantastic so far this season, but the team lacks another downfield option as Zay Jones, Robert Foster, and Isaiah McKenzie have all failed to step up so far this year.

The Patriots defense has been one that so far this season has been one of the best in football. Stephon Gilmore appears to be challenging for the best cornerback in football in 2019 as he has been dominant in each of his three games and the McCourty brothers continue to play at an extremely high level. This is a unit that has allowed just 3 points on the season and pitched two back to back shutouts, but a large portion of that has been schedule related as outside of Week 1 against the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger, the team has largely been untested. The Patriots pass rush was one of the primary concerns heading into the season, but they have been one of the best units in football as they have 13 sacks so far this season which leads the NFL and they have gotten them from levels on their defense as no player has more than 2.5 sacks on the year. So far this season, this is the best unit in football and the only question will be whether these stats will normalize as they face stiffer competition, but until then, they are a team to avoid starting players against.

Bills vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-5.3)5 (-5.4)6 (-3.9)5 (-5.2)
1Sam Darnold7228411751010012.812.813.013.0
2Eli Manning7026452501212014.714.712.212.2
3Andy Dalton6120362491211120.620.618.118.1

Tom Brady (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $6600)

1vs PIT7024363413000029.129.125.628.6
2@ MIA7220282642021127.327.324.724.7
3vs NYJ732842306202-1023.
4PROJ-Dodds23362701.90.7120. (H=50)21.2 (H=60)
4PROJ-Tremblay23372611.61130.119.419.419.4 (H=43)19.4 (H=51)
4PROJ-Bloom22312392.10.7110.120.320.320.3 (H=47)20.3 (H=55)

Bills vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.7)13T (-1.4)17 (-0.2)17T (-0.1)
1LeVeon Bell72176009632115.
1Ty Montgomery524000000.
2Saquon Barkley611810717328019.522.521.025.5
2Rod Smith000000000.
3Joe Mixon35156102234115.517.516.517.5
3Giovani Bernard2635022701.

Sony Michel (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $5500)

1vs PIT231514000.0001.
2@ MIA352185100.00014.514.512.513.5
3vs NYJ17911110.0007.
4PROJ-Dodds16640.50.5409.810.310.0 (H=17)10.3 (H=20)
4PROJ-Tremblay15580.50.22099.29.1 (H=15)9.2 (H=16)
4PROJ-Bloom14440.70.0008.68.68.6 (H=13)8.6 (H=15)

Rex Burkhead (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $4400)

1vs PIT32844085.04108.513.511.013.5
2@ MIA17521022.04706.
3vs NYJ571147176.022012.918.915.918.9
4PROJ-Dodds7260.23.7300.17.411.19.3 (H=16)11.1 (H=29)
4PROJ-Tremblay8320.24.3320.18.212.510.4 (H=20)12.5 (H=36)
4PROJ-Bloom7340.23.0220.28119.5 (H=17)11.0 (H=28)

James White (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4900)

1vs PIT33426075.05608.213.210.713.2
2@ MIA22310043.01918.911.910.411.9
3vs NYJ000000.000000.00.0
4PROJ-Dodds4160.13.6300.26.4108.2 (H=12)10.0 (H=22)
4PROJ-Tremblay2100.12.8210. (H=6)7.1 (H=12)
4PROJ-Bloom3120.14.0370.37.311.39.3 (H=15)11.3 (H=27)

Brandon Bolden (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs PIT117000.0000.
2@ MIA000000.000000.00.0
3vs NYJ222-2032.02101.
4PROJ-Dodds1300.7600.91.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
4PROJ-Tremblay1400.7500.91.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)

Bills vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-5.4)15T (-1.8)5 (-5.5)10 (-4.1)
1Jamison Crowder65171499014010.324.317.324.3
1Robby Anderson69732300002.
2T.J. Jones30433810009.812.811.312.8
2Bennie Fowler5510551012007.112.19.612.1
3Auden Tate541068800008.814.89.813.8
3Tyler Boyd551166700006.712.79.712.7

Julian Edelman (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6500)

1vs PIT67116.083018010.716.713.416.4
2@ MIA6644.05101105.
3vs NYJ39107.062100012.219.215.719.2
4PROJ-Dodds5.5650.41309.214.712.0 (H=21)14.7 (H=32)
4PROJ-Tremblay4.4560.41408.412.810.6 (H=17)12.8 (H=25)
4PROJ-Bloom6.0580.60009.415.412.4 (H=22)15.4 (H=35)

Josh Gordon (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5900)

1vs PIT4743.073100013.316.314.816.3
2@ MIA5752.01900001.
3vs NYJ68116.08301108.414.411.414.4
4PROJ-Dodds4.4670.40009.113.511.3 (H=21)13.5 (H=30)
4PROJ-Tremblay4.5620.40208.813.311.1 (H=20)13.3 (H=29)
4PROJ-Bloom5.0710.500010.115.112.6 (H=25)15.1 (H=37)

Phillip Dorsett (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $4700)

1vs PIT6144.095200021.525.523.525.5
2@ MIA3533.03900003.
3vs NYJ7176.0531212012.518.515.518.5
4PROJ-Dodds3.6510.41207.711.39.5 (H=16)11.3 (H=28)
4PROJ-Tremblay3.4460.31406.810.28.5 (H=13)10.2 (H=23)
4PROJ-Bloom4.0510.50008.112.110.1 (H=18)12.1 (H=31)

Jakobi Meyers (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3500)

1vs PIT811.02200002.
2@ MIA000.000000000.00.0
3vs NYJ4932.03800003.
4PROJ-Dodds1.5210.10002.74.23.5 (H=3)4.2 (H=6)
4PROJ-Tremblay2.0260.20003.85.84.8 (H=6)5.8 (H=12)
4PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bills vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-4.4)6 (-5.5)5 (-4.9)6 (-5.7)
1Ryan Griffin68431001.
2Evan Engram55864804.810.87.810.8
3Tyler Eifert29111801.

Ryan Izzo (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs PIT4521.0300.
2@ MIA3100.000000.00.0
3vs NYJ5111.04104.
4PROJ-Dodds1.7190. (H=3)4.2 (H=9)
4PROJ-Tremblay0.660. (H=0)1.8 (H=2)

Matt LaCosse (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2700)

1vs PIT000.000000.00.0
2@ MIA4222.03303.
3vs NYJ000.000000.00.0
4PROJ-Dodds1.0110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)
4PROJ-Tremblay0.4500.50.90.7 (H=0)0.9 (H=0)
4PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Bills vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3 (-3.9)3 (-3.9)3 (-4.3) (+0.0)
1Chandler Catanzaro0000000.00.0
2Aldrick Rosas0122222.02.0
3Randy Bullock1122556.06.0

Stephen Gostkowski (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs PIT4433151516.016.0
2@ MIA1246777.07.0
3vs NYJ1134666.06.0

Bills vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24T (+1.6)24T (+1.6)26 (+1.4)26 (+1.4)
1New York Jets1737012201151518.018.0
2New York Giants2838830000332.02.0
3Cincinnati Bengals2141611100555.05.0

New England Patriots (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs PIT3.00308110003310.010.0
2@ MIA0.0018474002272737.037.0
3vs NYJ14.00105510007714.014.0
4PROJ-Dodds15.403372.310.800.511.511.511.5 (H=28)11.5 (H=37)
4PROJ-Tremblay17.753482.110.900.510.610.610.6 (H=24)10.6 (H=32)

Patriots vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-13.6)1 (-13.6)1 (-12.5)1 (-13.8)
1Ben Roethlisberger6927472760117013.513.510.710.7
2Josh Rosen2471897010003.
3Luke Falk51122298010003.

Josh Allen (FanDuel: $7400, DraftKings: $5600)

1@ NYJ692437254121038124.524.518.020.0
2@ NYG76193025310721124.824.822.222.2
3vs CIN78233624311946019.819.819.319.3
4PROJ-Dodds19332301.21.18360.320.620.620.6 (H=50)20.6 (H=67)
4PROJ-Tremblay2033231118310.319.519.519.5 (H=46)19.5 (H=61)
4PROJ-Bloom23381951.11.510360.519.319.319.3 (H=45)19.3 (H=60)

Patriots vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-10.6)2 (-10.3)2 (-10.2)2 (-10.7)
1James Conner3210210444406.510.58.510.5
1Jaylen Samuels2324021200.
2Kenyan Drake346190652904.
2Mark Walton103150211202.
3LeVeon Bell5118350442806.310.38.310.3
3Ty Montgomery821010000.

Frank Gore (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4400)

1@ NYJ191120000.000222.02.0
2@ NYG451968122.015014.316.315.316.3
3vs CIN491476122.013014.916.915.916.9
4PROJ-Dodds14550.31.51108.49.99.2 (H=16)9.9 (H=24)
4PROJ-Tremblay13490.31.613089.68.8 (H=15)9.6 (H=22)
4PROJ-Bloom13370.32.01206.78.77.7 (H=12)8.7 (H=19)

T.J. Yeldon (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ NYJ200000.000000.00.0
2@ NYG500000.000000.00.0
3vs CIN29830032.01904.
4PROJ-Dodds5190.11.8150. (H=8)6.4 (H=13)
4PROJ-Tremblay7280.12.4190. (H=12)8.3 (H=21)
4PROJ-Bloom3100.13.02003.66.65.1 (H=7)6.6 (H=14)

Patriots vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-12.9)1 (-14.3)1 (-13.5)1 (-15.6)
1JuJu Smith-Schuster62867800007.813.810.813.8
1James Washington36625100005.
2Preston Williams42646300006.310.38.310.3
2Jakeem Grant38732201-401.
3Braxton Berrios30622900002.
3Jamison Crowder46522500002.

John Brown (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $5300)

1@ NYJ59107.0123100018.325.321.828.3
2@ NYG6087.07200007.214.210.714.2
3vs CIN7054.05101405.
4PROJ-Dodds4.5690.30008.713.211.0 (H=22)13.2 (H=32)
4PROJ-Tremblay4.7630.30108.212.910.6 (H=21)12.9 (H=31)
4PROJ-Bloom6.0560.400081411.0 (H=22)14.0 (H=36)

Cole Beasley (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4700)

1@ NYJ4895.0400000496.59.0
2@ NYG3744.08300008.312.310.312.3
3vs CIN47108.04800004.812.810.814.8
4PROJ-Dodds4.5500.20006.210.78.5 (H=15)10.7 (H=25)
4PROJ-Tremblay4.6560.20006.811.49.1 (H=17)11.4 (H=28)
4PROJ-Bloom6.0490.30006.712.79.7 (H=19)12.7 (H=34)

Zay Jones (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ NYJ2942.01800001.
2@ NYG4531.01400001.
3vs CIN4032.03300003.
4PROJ-Dodds1.6220.10002.84.43.6 (H=3)4.4 (H=8)
4PROJ-Tremblay1.8220.10002.84.63.7 (H=4)4.6 (H=9)
4PROJ-Bloom2.0230.10002.94.93.9 (H=4)4.9 (H=10)

Isaiah McKenzie (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

2@ NYG1722.040114010.412.411.412.4
3vs CIN1911.09031001.
4PROJ-Dodds0.91301501.82.72.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)
4PROJ-Tremblay0.91001701.72.62.2 (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
4PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Robert Foster (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ NYJ1500.000000000.00.0
2@ NYG2720.000000000.00.0
3vs CIN1810.000000000.00.0
4PROJ-Dodds0.610000011.61.3 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
4PROJ-Tremblay0.6900000.91.51.2 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)
4PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Patriots vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-4.3)2 (-7.1)3 (-5.7)2 (-7.3)
1Vance McDonald49424004.
2Durham Smythe25112402.
3Ryan Griffin4711500.

Dawson Knox (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $2900)

1@ NYJ3821.0100.
2@ NYG4141.01801.
3vs CIN4443.067113.616.615.116.6
4PROJ-Dodds1.9230. (H=4)4.8 (H=10)
4PROJ-Tremblay2.1220. (H=4)4.9 (H=10)
4PROJ-Bloom3.0310. (H=8)7.3 (H=21)

Tommy Sweeney (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ NYJ2322.03503.
2@ NYG2110.000000.00.0
3vs CIN2331.0300.
4PROJ-Dodds1.1120. (H=2)2.9 (H=5)
4PROJ-Tremblay1.3130. (H=2)3.2 (H=5)
4PROJ-Bloom1.040.1121.5 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)

Lee Smith (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ NYJ2700.000000.00.0
2@ NYG4111.0800.
3vs CIN3910.000000.00.0
4PROJ-Dodds0.5400.40.90.6 (H=0)0.9 (H=0)
4PROJ-Tremblay0.5400.40.90.6 (H=0)0.9 (H=0)

Patriots vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-4.6)1T (-4.6)1T (-5.3) (+0.0)
1Chris Boswell1100333.03.0
2Jason Sanders0000000.00.0
3Sam Ficken0022222.02.0

Steve Hauschka (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ NYJ1122556.06.0
2@ NYG0044444.04.0
3vs CIN2311778.08.0

Patriots vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29T (+3.2)29T (+3.2)13T (-0.6)13T (-0.6)
1Pittsburgh Steelers3346510000110.00.0
2Miami Dolphins4338120100443.03.0
3New York Jets3038111102232316.016.0

Buffalo Bills (FanDuel: $3400, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ NYJ16.00223401108810.010.0
2@ NYG14.0037012000556.06.0
3vs CIN17.0030622200101011.011.0
4PROJ-Dodds23.003632.410.600. (H=21)7.9 (H=27)
4PROJ-Tremblay24.753802.410.600. (H=19)7.5 (H=25)