Matchup Analysis: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Vikings 18, Bears 21

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Minnesota Vikings Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Vikings Offense26.0 (+3.7) (7)194 (+84) (2)165 (-82) (31)
Bears Defense13.0 (-9.3) (3)69 (-40) (5)245 (-2) (14)

Chicago Bears Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Bears Offense16.7 (-5.7) (26)96 (-12) (21)179 (-68) (29)
Vikings Defense15.7 (-6.7) (6)102 (-7) (13)226 (-21) (11)

Vikings Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bears defense.

The Vikings backfield continued to roll last week as both Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison combined for 168 yards and two touchdowns rushing the ball. This has proven to be one of the most potent backfields in football through the first three games, as the Vikings now rank second with 193.7 rushing yards per game. Cook has been nothing short of tremendous in these first three games. He is being used as a true bell-cow running back in a run-heavy offense, and Cook is finding massive success with high levels of volume. He has averaged over five yards per rush in all three games while rushing for at least 110 yards and a touchdown in each outing. Even Mattison has seen quite a heavy workload as the clear backup to Cook. In any other offense, Mattison’s volume could be concerning for someone like Cook--but with as run-heavy of a scheme as this Vikings team appears to be planning towards, there will be plenty of opportunities to share between Cook and Mattison. The offensive line was in much better shape last week as left guard Pat Elflein returned to the lineup, however, they lost right guard Josh Kline midway through the game due to a concussion--so his status in question will shed doubt on what has been a decent, yet banged-up offensive line to start the season.

The Bears run defense continued to impress with another dominant performance against the Redskins last week, holding Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson to an average of 3.6 yards per carry and no touchdowns. This defense has yet to allow a running back to exceed 54 rushing yards as opposing backfields are finding no room to run. Akiem Hicks has started strong this season and had a great performance last week despite not finishing the game as he exited early with a knee injury. His injury is not believed to be serious, but his status is worth monitoring as this defensive line would be downgraded without the presence of Hicks. Eddie Goldman will have a premium matchup against rookie center Garrett Bradbury, who has struggled to start his NFL career. Linebacker continues to be the position to improve upon for the Bears run defense, but their excellent defensive line and safeties have helped to make up for any inadequacies Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith have presented in run defense. This will be a challenging matchup for the league’s #2 rushing offense, especially with Akiem Hicks likely to suit up.

Vikings Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Bears defense.

The Vikings passing offense had an easy time last week as their ground game did most of the heavy lifting in a big win over the Raiders. Kirk Cousins cruised to 174 passing yards and a touchdown with just 21 pass attempts. After averaging just short of 38 pass attempts per game in 2018, Cousins is averaging just 21 attempts per game to start this season in what has proven to be one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. While some weeks will certainly require more from Cousins, the Vikings will be perfectly content with another 21-attempt game if their rushing offense can keep up the current pace. Both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs have had rough starts to the season from a fantasy perspective, but at least one of them has found the end zone in all three weeks with Thielen grabbing a touchdown in Weeks 1 and 3 and Diggs scoring in Week 2. Thielen has consistently led the team in targets on a weekly basis, but Diggs will still remain a boom or bust big-play threat--as we saw from his Week 2 long touchdown. Slot receiver Chad Beebe is injured and likely to miss this week, but he was not a big factor in this offense regardless. Rookie tight end Irv Smith had somewhat of a breakout game in Week 3, catching three passes for 60 yards. However, his low snap share in an already low ceiling passing offense will limit his reliability on a weekly basis.

The Bears defense continues to look like one of the best in the league as they had another strong performance against the Redskins last week. While they did allow Case Keenum to exploit their zone defense on a few drives late in the game last week, this opportunistic defense earned that ability to play soft based on their strong first-half showing. Safety Ha-Ha Clinton Dix grabbed his first two interceptions of the season, one of which he returned for a touchdown. Cornerback Kyle Fuller locked down his side of the field and also finished with an interception, marking his second in the past two games. He will present a challenging matchup for both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. This Bears defensive front will also present a challenge for the Vikings offensive line. While the Vikings didn’t give up a single sack in their last game, this offensive line is still vulnerable in pass protection and should have a hard time against the likes of Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks.

Bears Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

David Montgomery continues to lead the Bears backfield as he finished with 13 carries for 67 yards compared to just four carries for negative yards from Tarik Cohen, and just one carry for two yards from Mike Davis. Montgomery’s performance last week left a lot to be desired though. Despite the hot start from this Bears passing offense that led to a 28-3 halftime advantage, Montgomery never really got going on the ground until what was a meaningless final drive to burn clock. The offensive line for Chicago grades out as a top tier unit, but they were not making much room for Montgomery for most of last week’s game. Despite his questionable stats to start the season, Montgomery does look impressive when he has a decent hole to run through. If his offensive line can pick up the pace and Montgomery actually be afforded the opportunity to find a rhythm, he could be in store for a big performance in the near future.

The Vikings run defense had a decent outing in Week 3, limiting Raiders running backs to 81 yards and no touchdowns on 18 carries. This was a nice bounceback after Aaron Jones ran for 116 yards and a touchdown against them in Week 2. On the season, the Vikings are hovering around an average mark of 4.4 rushing yards per attempt allowed to running backs. They have a number of strong pieces on this defense, but the interior defensive line has struggled compared to what has historically been expected on a Vikings team. Linebacker has also been somewhat of a challenge, particularly now that Anthony Barr is sidelined with a groin injury. Barr had been struggling before the injury, regardless, but the depth behind him is an issue that will weaken this overall group if he remains out this week. Eric Wilson did have a very nice game in Week 3 though, finishing with a couple of tackles for loss as he stuffed his fair share of runs. With these minor spots, the Vikings have plenty of strengths to offset them as their edge defenders and defensive backs have all been impressive defending against the run--notably Anthony Harris coming up from safety to make numerous plays against the run.

Bears Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Vikings defense.

Mitchell Trubisky left himself plenty of room to improve after some abysmal outings in Weeks 1-2, and he partially delivered last week as he made a few nice throws to Taylor Gabriel for three touchdowns in his last game. Trubisky did have his best game of the season, but he was propped up by excellent play from the Bears defense to set him up in great field position with minimal pressure on the scoreboard. Trubisky was not accurate and made some poor decisions, including an interception in the red zone that cost his team a scoring opportunity. Taylor Gabriel had a surprise performance last week as he racked up 75 yards and three touchdowns from six receptions. Prior to last week, Gabriel was targeted just seven times and had three receptions for 35 yards. In 2018, he had one big multi-touchdown game but was minimally involved other than that. He will remain a boom or (primarily) bust option. Allen Robinson should be more dependable as he has led or tied for the lead in targets for the Bears in all three games this season. Tarik Cohen saw the field for 50 percent of snaps last week, but his role out of the backfield will continue to be game script dependent with limited upside considering the presence of both Mike Davis and David Montgomery.

The impressive Vikings passing defense may have shown some slight vulnerability last week despite an overall impressive showing against the Raiders offense. Their pass rush continues to impress as Everson Griffen and Daniel Hunter both finished with a sack and multiple hurries last week. They have combined for five sacks on the season and should pose a challenge for Bears tackles this week. Play from the Vikings cornerbacks has also been decent to start the year, but the absence of Mackensie Alexander may cause continued concern. The combination of Mike Hughes and Jayron Kearse has filled in from the slot. Kearse is a safety by trade but has done an excellent job in coverage--whereas Mike Hughes has played pretty poorly and would be a better matchup for Taylor Gabriel in this one. Xavier Rhodes, on the other hand, has done a decent job holding up to tough competition as he limited production from both Julio Jones and Tyrell Williams. He should present a challenge to Allen Robinson. Where this defense was exploited last week is at tight end, as Darrel Waller for the Raiders had his will over the middle of the field, hauling in 13 of 14 targets for 134 yards. The Vikings safeties and linebackers have historically been pretty strong in coverage against tight ends, but they also allowed a big game to Austin Hooper earlier this season. With continued strong play by the Vikings cornerbacks, production may continue to be funneled to tight ends against this defense. This could lead to some upside for the likes of Trey Burton this week.

Bears vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-3.2)9 (-3.2)8 (-3.6)10 (-3.3)
1Aaron Rodgers6418302031038015.015.012.912.9
2Joe Flacco8235502921100017.617.616.716.7
3Case Keenum7930433322323021.921.914.619.6

Kirk Cousins (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $5000)

1vs ATL53810981064115.315.314.314.3
2@ GB65143223012217015.215.210.911.9
3vs OAK61152117410416014.314.312.612.6
4PROJ-Dodds19312081.10.93100.115.515.515.5 (H=33)15.5 (H=46)
4PROJ-Tremblay22352311.11.13100.116.516.516.5 (H=37)16.5 (H=51)
4PROJ-Bloom13221771.40.83120.2161616.0 (H=35)16.0 (H=48)

Bears vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-5.8)4 (-5.2)4 (-5.3)4 (-5.6)
1Aaron Jones381339011003.
1Jamaal Williams26500221501.
2Royce Freeman43115407548010.215.212.715.2
2Phillip Lindsay3913360743006.610.68.610.6
3Chris Thompson4072905479010.814.812.814.8
3Adrian Peterson371237031-303.

Dalvin Cook (FanDuel: $8300, DraftKings: $8300)

1vs ATL3621111222.090242625.029.0
2@ GB4720154133.037025.128.126.631.1
3vs OAK3816110154.033020.324.322.327.3
4PROJ-Dodds18910.63.6260.115.919.517.7 (H=34)19.5 (H=41)
4PROJ-Tremblay13590.44.2320.112.116.314.2 (H=23)16.3 (H=30)
4PROJ-Bloom20820.73.0250.115.518.517.0 (H=32)18.5 (H=37)

Alexander Mattison (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3900)

1vs ATL12949000.0004.
2@ GB8425000.0002.
3vs OAK191258100.00011.811.811.811.8
4PROJ-Dodds7260.10.3203.43.73.6 (H=3)3.7 (H=4)
4PROJ-Tremblay6230.10.0002.92.92.9 (H=2)2.9 (H=3)
4PROJ-Bloom7270.20.0003.93.93.9 (H=4)3.9 (H=5)

C.J. Ham (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs ATL2200000.000000.00.0
2@ GB2500030.000000.00.0
3vs OAK2600021.000010.51.0
4PROJ-Dodds0001.0700.71.71.2 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
4PROJ-Tremblay0002.11501.53.62.6 (H=2)3.6 (H=6)

Ameer Abdullah (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs ATL428000.0000.
2@ GB712000.0000.
3vs OAK100010.000000.00.0
4PROJ-Dodds0000.000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)
4PROJ-Tremblay1300.4300.610.9 (H=0)1.1 (H=0)

Bears vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-2.6)19 (-0.0)17 (-0.6)19 (-0.7)
1Marquez Valdes-Scantling42645201005.
1Davante Adams62843600003.
2Emmanuel Sanders76131198100015.826.823.328.8
2Courtland Sutton78744000004.
3Paul Richardson679883100014.322.318.322.3
3Terry McLaurin708670100013.

Adam Thielen (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $6600)

1vs ATL4733.043100010.313.311.813.3
2@ GB6485.07500007.512.510.012.5
3vs OAK5553.055111117.620.619.120.6
4PROJ-Dodds5.1710.40109.614.712.2 (H=21)14.7 (H=31)
4PROJ-Tremblay5.3750.40101015.312.7 (H=23)15.3 (H=34)
4PROJ-Bloom4.0630.60009.913.911.9 (H=20)13.9 (H=28)

Stefon Diggs (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $5500)

1vs ATL3222.03700003.
2@ GB5871.049100010.911.99.410.9
3vs OAK4433.01500001.
4PROJ-Dodds4.4540.30007.211.69.4 (H=15)11.6 (H=25)
4PROJ-Tremblay4.3470.30006.510.88.7 (H=13)10.8 (H=22)
4PROJ-Bloom3.0540.50008.411.49.9 (H=17)11.4 (H=24)

Chad Beebe (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs ATL1411.0900000.
2@ GB1621.06100006.
3vs OAK1400.000000000.00.0
4PROJ-Dodds1.1120.10001.82.92.4 (H=1)3.0 (H=4)
4PROJ-Tremblay0.000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)
4PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.1 (H=0)0.1 (H=0)

Bears vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21 (+0.9)23 (+2.5)22 (+1.7)23 (+2.2)
1Jimmy Graham35633019.012.010.512.0
2Noah Fant54443303.
3Vernon Davis56423003.

Kyle Rudolph (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3500)

1vs ATL5310.000000.00.0
2@ GB6553.0900.
3vs OAK5511.01101.
4PROJ-Dodds2.0210. (H=4)4.7 (H=8)
4PROJ-Tremblay2.8280.246.85.4 (H=8)6.8 (H=15)
4PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.4 (H=2)

Irv Smith (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2900)

1vs ATL2600.000000.00.0
2@ GB2721.0-10-
3vs OAK3133.0600697.59.0
4PROJ-Dodds1.4150. (H=2)3.5 (H=6)
4PROJ-Tremblay1.7180. (H=3)4.1 (H=7)
4PROJ-Bloom2.0270. (H=5)5.3 (H=12)

Bears vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-1.9)8 (-1.9)8T (-2.3) (+0.0)
1Mason Crosby1111444.04.0
2Brandon McManus2200667.07.0
3Dustin Hopkins1200333.03.0

Dan Bailey (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs ATL0044444.04.0
2@ GB1212444.04.0
3vs OAK2244101012.012.0

Bears vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-2.1)10T (-2.1)15T (-0.3)15T (-0.3)
1Green Bay Packers3254510007714.014.0
2Denver Broncos1627300000001.01.0
3Washington Redskins3129831000555.05.0

Minnesota Vikings (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $3400)

1vs ATL12.0034542100101014.014.0
2@ GB21.0033520200666.06.0
3vs OAK14.0030241000667.07.0
4PROJ-Dodds19.103312. (H=26)10.0 (H=31)
4PROJ-Tremblay20.253462.210.700. (H=26)9.8 (H=30)

Vikings vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.0)13 (-1.0)12 (-1.2)12 (-1.1)
1Matt Ryan78334630422224023.623.620.623.6
2Aaron Rodgers7422342092010018.518.514.415.4
3Derek Carr5927342422110019.119.116.716.7

Mitchell Trubisky (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5000)

1vs GB73264522801311011.511.59.29.2
2@ DEN611627120001806.
3@ WAS6625312313112022.822.820.420.4
4PROJ-Dodds22332251.313160.117.617.617.6 (H=42)17.6 (H=57)
4PROJ-Tremblay21332221.312110.1171717.0 (H=39)17.0 (H=54)
4PROJ-Bloom21381691.31.2260.113.613.613.6 (H=27)13.6 (H=36)

Vikings vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.1)12 (-2.5)8 (-2.7)10 (-2.2)
1Ito Smith39631011904.
1Devonta Freeman398190431203.
2Aaron Jones432311616434021.
2Jamaal Williams3592804313110.113.111.613.1
3Josh Jacobs251044020004.
3Jalen Richard292150331402.

David Montgomery (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $5300)

1vs GB28618011.02704.
2@ DEN271862131.06012.813.813.313.8
3@ WAS441367033.01408.111.19.611.1
4PROJ-Dodds16600.42.01409.811.810.8 (H=20)11.8 (H=27)
4PROJ-Tremblay15640.42.0160.1111312.0 (H=24)13.0 (H=32)
4PROJ-Bloom12400.42.0110. (H=15)10.1 (H=20)

Tarik Cohen (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $4600)

1vs GB51000108.04904.912.98.912.9
2@ DEN23418052.0702.
3@ WAS324-2042.02602.
4PROJ-Dodds3140.14.4340.1610.48.3 (H=13)10.5 (H=25)
4PROJ-Tremblay4150.14.4340. (H=13)10.6 (H=25)
4PROJ-Bloom390.13.0270. (H=10)8.5 (H=17)

Mike Davis (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs GB41519076.01703.
2@ DEN1531000.0000.
3@ WAS112000.0000.
4PROJ-Dodds4150.11.690. (H=5)5.2 (H=10)
4PROJ-Tremblay3130.11.1802.73.83.3 (H=3)3.8 (H=6)
4PROJ-Bloom1300.0000.30.30.3 (H=0)0.3 (H=0)

Vikings vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+0.8)21 (+2.8)21 (+1.2)21 (+2.1)
1Calvin Ridley616464100012.416.414.416.4
1Julio Jones531163110009.
2Davante Adams7197106000010.617.614.120.6
2Geronimo Allison34542510008.512.58.511.5
3J.J. Nelson46543610009.613.611.613.6
3Tyrell Williams57332910008.911.910.411.9

Allen Robinson (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5600)

1vs GB70137.0102000010.217.213.720.2
2@ DEN5574.04100004.
3@ WAS5976.06000006129.012.0
4PROJ-Dodds5.1700.30008.813.911.4 (H=19)13.9 (H=34)
4PROJ-Tremblay4.7620.3000812.710.4 (H=16)12.7 (H=29)
4PROJ-Bloom6.0580.30007.613.610.6 (H=17)13.6 (H=32)

Taylor Gabriel (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs GB6752.02400002.
2@ DEN5321.011011402.
3@ WAS4976.075317026.
4PROJ-Dodds2.5330.11504.46.95.7 (H=8)6.9 (H=15)
4PROJ-Tremblay3.1350.21405.18.26.7 (H=11)8.2 (H=20)
4PROJ-Bloom3.0310.30004.97.96.4 (H=10)7.9 (H=19)

Cordarrelle Patterson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3600)

1vs GB2031.0301-
2@ DEN1500.0002500555.05.0
3@ WAS911.0604140232.53.0
4PROJ-Dodds0.880.121002.43.22.9 (H=2)3.3 (H=4)
4PROJ-Tremblay0.790.131603.13.83.5 (H=3)3.9 (H=5)
4PROJ-Bloom1.0403130. (H=2)3.4 (H=4)

Anthony Miller (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $3700)

1vs GB1610.000000000.00.0
2@ DEN3211.0200000.
3@ WAS3431.01500001.
4PROJ-Dodds1.2130.10001.93.12.5 (H=1)3.1 (H=3)
4PROJ-Tremblay1.1150.10002.13.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
4PROJ-Bloom1.070.10001.32.31.8 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)

Javon Wims (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3400)

1vs GB2120.000000000.00.0
2@ DEN1800.000000000.00.0
3@ WAS1711.0800000.
4PROJ-Dodds0.6800000.81.41.1 (H=0)1.4 (H=1)
4PROJ-Tremblay0.5700000.71.21.0 (H=0)1.2 (H=0)

Vikings vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.1)25 (+3.0)21 (+1.6)25 (+3.8)
1Austin Hooper62997707.716.712.216.7
2Robert Tonyan2200000.
3Darren Waller531413134014.127.120.630.1

Trey Burton (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3800)

1vs GB000.000000.00.0
2@ DEN2632.0500.
3@ WAS4044.0200264.06.0
4PROJ-Dodds2.5240. (H=6)6.1 (H=12)
4PROJ-Tremblay2.0210. (H=5)5.3 (H=9)
4PROJ-Bloom4.0250. (H=8)7.7 (H=18)

Adam Shaheen (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

1vs GB3421.0600.
2@ DEN2133.02402.
3@ WAS2311.0700.
4PROJ-Dodds1.0100. (H=1)2.6 (H=3)
4PROJ-Tremblay0.990. (H=1)2.4 (H=2)
4PROJ-Bloom1. (H=1)2.2 (H=2)

Ben Braunecker (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2900)

1vs GB1000.000000.00.0
2@ DEN1532.02402.
3@ WAS300.000000.00.0
4PROJ-Dodds0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
4PROJ-Tremblay0.5500.510.8 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)

Vikings vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-4.6)1T (-4.6)1T (-5.3) (+0.0)
1Matt Bryant0000000.00.0
2Mason Crosby0033333.03.0
3Daniel Carlson0122222.02.0

Eddy Pineiro (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs GB1100333.03.0
2@ DEN3311101015.015.0
3@ WAS1244777.07.0

Vikings vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-2.8)5T (-2.8)4 (-3.9)4 (-3.9)
1Atlanta Falcons2826910000110.00.0
2Green Bay Packers16421122009910.010.0
3Oakland Raiders343850000000-1.0-1.0

Chicago Bears (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3400)

1vs GB10.0021350000559.09.0
2@ DEN14.0037221000445.05.0
3@ WAS15.0035643201202021.021.0
4PROJ-Dodds17.503162.20.90.800.711.511.511.5 (H=29)11.5 (H=40)
4PROJ-Tremblay17.753292.31.10.900.611.611.611.6 (H=29)11.6 (H=41)