Matchup Analysis: Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Ravens 25, Chiefs 31

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Baltimore Ravens Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Ravens Offense41.0 (+19.2) (1)224 (+114) (1)318 (+69) (4)
Chiefs Defense18.0 (-3.8) (9)105 (-3) (13)262 (+13) (20)

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chiefs Offense34.0 (+12.2) (4)72 (-36) (26)406 (+156) (1)
Ravens Defense13.5 (-8.3) (4)20 (-88) (1)254 (+5) (18)

Ravens Rushing offense

Great matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

Last year, the Ravens ran the ball 45 times a game over Lamar Jackson’s 7 starts under center. That’s a wild number to project, and it won’t be reached often. But this remains an offense rooted in the run; it’s built to block for it, and there are plenty of productive options to use. On Sunday, it was quarterback Jackson’s turn to dominate on the ground, and by game’s end he had tallied 120 explosive yards. Jackson hardly ran in the opener, and this served as a reminder that he’s among the league’s most dynamic open-field players. But even when one runner excels, whenever game flow is in the Ravens’ favor, there’s room for another to produce simultaneously. In Week 1, both Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards topped 14 carries and 50 yards - Ingram blasted well past those marks, in fact. Sledding was tougher last week against the Cardinals’ improved run defense: Ingram put up a 16-yard run in the first quarter, but managed just 31 on his other 12 attempts. He did, however, play well ahead of Edwards, who saw just 16 snaps and 3 rushes. There may always be a “hot hand” aspect to this backfield, but in general, Ingram is currently the clear-cut lead runner. There’s a place for Edwards’ power, which is truly impressive, though he’s not versatile enough to work in much. The same goes for explosive rookie Justice Hill, who’s taken just eight carries thus far, but brings 4.4 speed to the table.

For all of their recent success, the Chiefs still field one of football’s worst run defenses. Dating back to last season, no unit has allowed more yards per rush or a higher first-down rate on the ground. They’re often able to short-circuit the run with big leads - though that wasn’t the case in Week 2, when Raiders rookie Josh Jacobs ripped off chunk run after chunk run. Simply put, this is a defense assembled primarily to stop the pass, and not necessarily to wear down the run game. The biggest problems are found on the second level, where linebackers Anthony Hutchens and Damien Wilson make for a mediocre duo. Neither is particularly athletic or adept in pursuit, and top reserve Darron Lee remains as inconsistent as he was in New York. Too often, the team relies on support from safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill. Both are strong contributors and playmakers, but shouldn’t be needed this much. If the Chiefs are going to contain the Ravens’ dominant run game, they’ll likely need one of their patented big leads to slow things down.

Ravens Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

Against the Cardinals, Lamar Jackson followed up his dazzling Week 1 with another dynamic showing. Shedding the “runner only” tag way ahead of schedule, Jackson has averaged a league-best 12.9 adjusted yards per attempt and 7 touchdowns through the air. He’s shining, and he’s doing it with a clear focus on his two main playmakers, rookie Marquise Brown and tight end Mark Andrews. Last week, Brown and Andrews accounted for 22 of Jackson’s 37 targets, combining for 16 receptions and 198 yards. (No other Raven topped 30 on the day.) Brown’s Week 1 eruption was eye-opening, and it came over just 15 snaps of action. He’s being managed, but it’s clear how much the team wants to feature him when he’s in. Brown’s snap and usage rates skyrocketed in Week 2; he’s being moved around and utilized in different ways to win with his elite speed and quickness. Andrews has all the markings of an in-his-prime Jimmy Graham, fast down the seams and deceptively powerful in the open field. He beat the Arizona secondary repeatedly, both on downfield routes and on tough, contested catches over the middle. Beyond those two, the receiving corps is mostly a situational bunch. Miles Boykin and Willie Snead have combined for just 62 yards on their 9 targets, and the running backs don’t factor in much with Jackson at the helm. He’s more interested in big, tide-shifting plays down the field than checking down. Armed with a pair of weapons as potent as Brown and Andrews, it’s no surprise he’s succeeding early on.

For all the Chiefs’ surprising 2018 success, the pass defense was mostly a liability. Through two weeks of this season, though, a noticeable turnaround has emerged. New coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has installed an aggressive, turnover-seeking unit that pressures both quarterback and receiver for the ball. Up front, pass rushers Chris Jones and Frank Clark make for a dynamic pass-rush duo. Jones has been nothing short of ferocious on the interior: he lived in the Raiders’ backfield Sunday, knocking Derek Carr down four times. It’s exceptionally tough for opposing passers to throw from a clean pocket in this matchup. There are some questions on the back end, where outside cornerbacks Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward remain hit-or-miss. Both were burned badly on deep balls by the Jaguars’ D.J. Chark in Week 1. But Kendall Fuller remains solid in the slot, and rookie safety Juan Thornhill has injected new playmaking chops into this unit. There could be major help on the horizon, too, as some reports this week have connected the team to disgruntled Jaguars star Jalen Ramsey. As it stands, though, this unit may no longer be the pushover it was for much of last season.

Chiefs Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

The Chiefs haven’t been effective on the ground thus far in 2019, with their running backs averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. But they demand fantasy attention, if only due to the dynamism of the Kansas City offense. As a result, the statuses of Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy should be monitored closely - both left Week 2 early with injuries that have yet to be clarified. If one or both can’t suit up, rookie Darwin Thompson, who dazzled in all phases of the offense throughout training camp, will dominate the backfield. If his preseason was any indicator, he could equal or top Williams’ production from late last season. All of the Chiefs’ backs benefit greatly from Patrick Mahomes’ brilliance, which keeps defenses honest and provides plenty of scoring opportunity. They also operate behind a strong run-blocking line, led by All-Pro right tackle Mitchell Schwartz. The team might get left tackle Eric Fisher back this week, though backup Cameron Erving is solid in relief.

The Baltimore run defense remained its usual, dominant self in Week 2, holding the Cardinals to a total of 20 ground yards on the day. That came on the heels of giving up just 21 yards to the Dolphins in Week 1. The competition hasn’t been robust, but it’s still been impressive to see the Ravens smother these two attacks. Even with major offseason turnover - C.J. Mosley, Terrell Suggs, and Eric Weddle all left town - they still dominate in the trenches and fill effectively in the box. The second level benefits greatly from the play of an elite line, led by Michael Pierce and Brandon Williams. New middle linebacker Patrick Onwuasor isn’t on Mosley’s talent level but has stepped in commendably thus far. When runners test the edges, they’re pursued by rising star Matt Judon and a strong-tackling secondary. The Chiefs present far more of a challenge than they’ve faced thus far, but this unit has earned its reputation as a prohibitive fantasy matchup.

Chiefs Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

At this point, it’s safe to project video-game numbers for Patrick Mahomes just about every week. The phenom has opened 2019 with performances of 378 and 443 yards, with 7 touchdowns and no turnovers along the way. Week 3 will bring a much stiffer test than the Raiders did last Sunday, but that’s not prohibitive at all. Against a similar Baltimore pass defense in Week 14 of last year, Mahomes racked up 377 and 2 scores. He’s as matchup-proof a QB1 as the fantasy world has ever seen; a bad statistical day for Mahomes would probably resemble a strong one for 20-25 others. His cannon arm is a perfect match for the Chiefs’ explosive receiving corps, which is packed with elite foot-speed and playmaking ability. Of course, tight end Travis Kelce remains the league’s best, capable of excelling both underneath and up the seams. Linebackers and tight ends make for noticeable mismatches when Kelce gets moving upfield. He’s caught 10 of his 17 targets thus far and has turned them into 195 yards and a score. (Mahomes also just missed him on a wide-open touchdown in Week 1.) And each week, even with Tyreek Hill sidelined, at least one Kansas City wideout makes sure to erupt. In Week 1, Sammy Watkins totaled 198 yards and 3 scores against the Jaguars’ elite cornerback duo. He’s been largely forgotten behind Kelce and Hill, but remains a deadly downfield weapon, winning with both speed and underrated power. Watkins was held in check Sunday, but speedy reserve Demarcus Robinson picked up the slack and then some (6 for 172 and 2 touchdowns). Explosive rookie Mecole Hardman also made his presence felt last week, with 61 yards and a touchdown of his own. All told, it’s wise not to overthink this unit in fantasy. Mahomes is performing on his level of football right now, and every receiver on the roster has a weekly path to big value.

The Ravens’ vaunted pass defense was solid against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals last Sunday. They registered nine hits on the rookie, sacking him three times and forcing more check-downs than Murray is used to. Most importantly, they limited the Cardinals when game flow forced them to pass. Big plays were their only undoing, with 4 different Cardinals recording at least one catch of 20+ yards. Still, this is one of football’s most talented units, and there’s no cause for concern. The Air Raid attack stretches defenses thin with four- and five-wide sets, and NFL teams are still learning how to work against this iteration. The secondary’s depth chart is locked in, with Marlon Humphrey and Anthony Averett on the outside and Brandon Carr in the slot. Averett is the clear weak point here; he boasts far less of a track record than the others and finds himself picked on often. Humphrey is a rising star but had a handful of lapses last week against the Cardinals’ spread attack. To be fair, he was playing after missing the week’s practices with a back injury. Going forward, it’s safe to assume this group will remain among fantasy’s toughest matchups.

Chiefs vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18 (+0.3)18 (+0.3)20 (+0.5)16 (-0.7)
1Gardner Minshew4722252752116021.421.418.618.6
2Derek Carr65233819812218013.713.711.711.7

Lamar Jackson (FanDuel: $8500, DraftKings: $7000)

1@ MIA5417203245036036.836.833.636.6
2vs ARI7924372722016120033.633.630.933.9
3PROJ-Dodds20332491.60.79480.324.824.824.8 (H=61)24.8 (H=74)
3PROJ-Tremblay22362531.51.19520.324.624.624.6 (H=60)24.6 (H=73)
3PROJ-Bloom202825620.57410.326.226.226.2 (H=67)26.2 (H=81)

Chiefs vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-5.9)7 (-7.1)4 (-7.3)5 (-8.0)
1Leonard Fournette5013660642809.413.49.412.4
1Ryquell Armstead817010000.
2Josh Jacobs301299000009.
2DeAndre Washington15390222603.

Mark Ingram (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $5700)

1@ MIA2514107200.00022.722.722.725.7
2vs ARI461347022.03007.
3PROJ-Dodds13590.51.31009.911.210.6 (H=16)11.2 (H=23)
3PROJ-Tremblay11510.30.9707.68.58.1 (H=10)8.5 (H=14)
3PROJ-Bloom13610.81.0100.112.513.513.0 (H=23)13.5 (H=31)

Gus Edwards (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ MIA291756000.0005.
2vs ARI16311000.0001.
3PROJ-Dodds7300.20.0004.24.24.2 (H=4)4.2 (H=8)
3PROJ-Tremblay8390.20.0005.15.15.1 (H=6)5.1 (H=11)
3PROJ-Bloom5180.10.0002.42.42.4 (H=1)2.4 (H=3)

Justice Hill (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3300)

1@ MIA23727000.0002.
2vs ARI1614021.01001.
3PROJ-Dodds3120.10.8702.53.33.0 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
3PROJ-Tremblay3140.10.9702.73.63.2 (H=3)3.7 (H=5)
3PROJ-Bloom1501.01101.62.62.2 (H=1)2.7 (H=3)

Chiefs vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+4.9)23 (+4.3)25 (+4.7)21T (+4.3)
1D.J. Chark4144146100020.624.622.627.6
1Chris Conley447697100015.721.718.721.7
2Tyrell Williams617546100010.615.613.115.6
2Hunter Renfrow49843000003.

Marquise Brown (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $5900)

1@ MIA1454.0147200026.730.728.733.7
2vs ARI51138.08600008.616.612.616.6
3PROJ-Dodds5.1730.40009.714.812.3 (H=25)14.8 (H=36)
3PROJ-Tremblay5.3760.40001015.312.7 (H=26)15.3 (H=38)
3PROJ-Bloom6.0770.500010.716.713.7 (H=30)16.7 (H=44)

Miles Boykin (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ MIA1811.0510006.
2vs ARI3831.01100001.
3PROJ-Dodds1.9250.10003.154.1 (H=5)5.0 (H=10)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.0260.10003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=11)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0280.30004.66.65.6 (H=8)6.6 (H=17)

Willie Snead (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $4200)

1@ MIA5032.041100010.
2vs ARI4411.0500000.
3PROJ-Dodds1.9220.10002.84.73.8 (H=4)4.7 (H=6)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.2240.100035.24.1 (H=4)5.2 (H=8)
3PROJ-Bloom1.0130.10001.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=3)

Seth Roberts (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ MIA5211.0100000121.52.0
2vs ARI2700.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.6700000.71.31.0 (H=0)1.3 (H=1)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.6700000.71.31.0 (H=0)1.3 (H=1)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Chiefs vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+0.4)27 (+4.1)22 (+2.2)26 (+3.8)
1James OShaughnessy38543203.
2Darren Waller62766306.312.39.312.3

Mark Andrews (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $4600)

1@ MIA3288.0108116.824.820.827.8
2vs ARI4298.0112117.
3PROJ-Dodds5.4690.59.915.312.6 (H=23)15.3 (H=49)
3PROJ-Tremblay6.1700.51016.113.0 (H=24)16.1 (H=53)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0610. (H=19)13.1 (H=37)

Nick Boyle (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2700)

1@ MIA4333.02602.
2vs ARI4931.01401.
3PROJ-Dodds1.9180.234.94.0 (H=5)4.9 (H=11)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.4220. (H=6)5.8 (H=15)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0210. (H=5)5.3 (H=13)

Hayden Hurst (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ MIA4333.04104.
2vs ARI3311.0116.
3PROJ-Dodds2.0200. (H=3)4.6 (H=9)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.6160. (H=2)3.8 (H=6)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0350. (H=11)8.3 (H=25)

Chiefs vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-0.3)13 (-0.3)13 (-1.0) (+0.0)
1Josh Lambo2222888.08.0
2Daniel Carlson1111444.04.0

Justin Tucker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ MIA1188111111.011.0
2vs ARI3322111113.013.0

Chiefs vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-3.8)4 (-3.8)2T (-7.3)2T (-7.3)
1Jacksonville Jaguars404910000000-4.0-4.0
2Oakland Raiders2846420100443.03.0

Baltimore Ravens (FanDuel: $3400, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ MIA10.00200321009913.013.0
2vs ARI17.0034930000334.04.0
3PROJ-Dodds30.604102.10.90.500. (H=9)4.9 (H=12)
3PROJ-Tremblay30.503882.51.10.500. (H=15)6.5 (H=20)

Ravens vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-6.0)8 (-6.0)8 (-4.8)9 (-4.5)
1Ryan Fitzpatrick4514291851118013.
2Kyler Murray6025403490034017.917.916.419.4

Patrick Mahomes (FanDuel: $9200, DraftKings: $7600)

1@ JAX5925333783012031.131.127.330.3
2@ OAK763044443401-1038.138.131.635.6
3PROJ-Dodds25383192.60.92110. (H=65)27.1 (H=79)
3PROJ-Tremblay24392972.31.13120.124.724.724.7 (H=56)24.7 (H=67)
3PROJ-Bloom28363523.10.8280.130.630.630.6 (H=81)30.6 (H=98)

Ravens vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-11.4)1 (-13.5)1 (-12.3)1 (-13.9)
1Kenyan Drake274120321502.
1Kalen Ballage205-10111301.
2David Johnson36714111007.
2Chase Edmonds24120221501.

Damien Williams (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5200)

1@ JAX451326166.039012.518.515.518.5
2@ OAK3998053.04805.
3PROJ-Dodds8340.43.7280.29.813.511.7 (H=22)13.5 (H=34)
3PROJ-Tremblay9350.42.6220.18.711.310.0 (H=16)11.3 (H=25)
3PROJ-Bloom7220.45.0450.310.915.913.4 (H=27)15.9 (H=46)

LeSean McCoy (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ JAX201081011.01209.310.39.810.3
2@ OAK311123033.0002.
3PROJ-Dodds9360.21.3110. (H=11)7.8 (H=14)
3PROJ-Tremblay8290.21.0704.85.85.3 (H=6)5.8 (H=8)
3PROJ-Bloom5240.10.000333.0 (H=2)3.0 (H=2)

Darwin Thompson (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ JAX200011.0300.
2@ OAK411000.0000.
3PROJ-Dodds3120.11.5120. (H=5)5.1 (H=11)
3PROJ-Tremblay4150.12.3190. (H=9)6.9 (H=18)
3PROJ-Bloom3110.11.0110. (H=4)4.4 (H=8)

Ravens vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+0.4)20 (+2.3)18T (+1.4)21T (+4.3)
1Preston Williams21532410008.411.49.911.4
1DeVante Parker38737500007.510.59.010.5
2Christian Kirk5686114000011.417.414.420.4
2Larry Fitzgerald57115104000010.415.412.918.4

Sammy Watkins (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $6800)

1@ JAX65119.0198300037.846.842.349.8
2@ OAK70136.04900004.910.97.910.9
3PROJ-Dodds5.3820.600011.817.114.5 (H=28)17.1 (H=40)
3PROJ-Tremblay5.4810.600011.717.114.4 (H=28)17.1 (H=40)
3PROJ-Bloom6.0770.700011.917.914.9 (H=30)17.9 (H=43)

Demarcus Robinson (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5200)

1@ JAX4321.000000010.51.0
2@ OAK6966.0172200029.
3PROJ-Dodds3.3470.40007.110.48.8 (H=12)10.4 (H=22)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.4420.40006.6108.3 (H=11)10.0 (H=20)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0640.50009.413.411.4 (H=20)13.4 (H=34)

Mecole Hardman (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ JAX5310.000000000.00.0
2@ OAK5664.061100012.
3PROJ-Dodds3.0450.30006.39.37.9 (H=11)9.4 (H=19)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.8390.30005.78.57.2 (H=9)8.6 (H=16)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0560.51709.313.311.4 (H=21)13.4 (H=35)

DeAnthony Thomas (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ JAX000.000000000.00.0
2@ OAK411.0600000.
3PROJ-Dodds0.8800000.81.61.3 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.4500000.50.90.8 (H=0)1.0 (H=0)
3PROJ-Bloom1.0110.10001.72.72.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)

Ravens vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-4.0)4 (-6.8)4 (-5.4)4 (-7.0)
1Mike Gesicki34623103.
2Maxx Williams14112102.

Travis Kelce (FanDuel: $8000, DraftKings: $7100)

1@ JAX5083.08808.811.810.311.8
2@ OAK6597.0107116.723.720.226.7
3PROJ-Dodds6.0800.712.218.215.2 (H=27)18.2 (H=42)
3PROJ-Tremblay5.6740.61116.613.8 (H=23)16.6 (H=36)
3PROJ-Bloom7.0880.813.620.617.1 (H=34)20.6 (H=53)

Blake Bell (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ JAX3311.0700.
2@ OAK2510.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.9700.71.61.2 (H=0)1.6 (H=1)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.670. (H=1)1.9 (H=2)

Ravens vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14T (+0.2)14T (+0.2)19 (+0.5) (+0.0)
1Jason Sanders1111446.06.0
2Zane Gonzalez3300999.09.0

Harrison Butker (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ JAX4444161617.017.0
2@ OAK0044444.04.0

Ravens vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2T (-4.3)2T (-4.3)2T (-7.3)2T (-7.3)
1Miami Dolphins596431000011-3.0-3.0
2Arizona Cardinals2344020000222.02.0

Kansas City Chiefs (FanDuel: $3500, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ JAX26.0042811100555.05.0
2@ OAK10.00307320007711.011.0
3PROJ-Dodds24.304032.20.80.500. (H=16)6.9 (H=22)
3PROJ-Tremblay24.004092.31.10.600. (H=20)7.8 (H=28)