Matchup Analysis: Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Rams 27, Browns 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Los Angeles Rams Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Rams Offense28.5 (+6.7) (7)140 (+31) (7)224 (-24) (21)
Browns Defense23.0 (+1.2) (19)108 (+0) (14)192 (-56) (5)

Cleveland Browns Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Browns Offense18.0 (-3.8) (24)86 (-22) (23)274 (+25) (13)
Rams Defense18.0 (-3.8) (10)92 (-16) (9)202 (-47) (7)

Rams Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Browns defense.

Todd Gurley is not running at the volumes that we had seen in 2018, but he is still effective. Averaging 5.3 yards per carry, against two historically good run defenses in the Panthers and Saints. He has been an inconsistent runner relying on long runs with Malcolm Brown being the more consistent yet less explosive of the two running backs as the two share carries in this run-heavy offense. On the offensive line, while it is not the elite unit it was last year with the losses to Rodger Saffold and John Sullivan, but Brian Allen and Joseph Noteboom have been more than serviceable so far this season. The team did lose Austin Blythe at the guard position, and if he is out will be a sizable loss as he was replaced by Jamil Demby who is noted as a versatile offensive lineman, but not really effective at any position.

The Browns defense has been thoroughly tested so far this year facing two run heavy offenses in the Titans and Jets, and for the most part, has been serviceable allowing 4.2 yards per carry and 108 yards per game. This is a unit that is going to continue to get better with two new defensive linemen in Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson to pair with Larry Ogunjobi and defensive end, Myles Garrett. If there is a weakness on this defense it is at the linebacker and safety positions as they are incredibly banged up with injuries. Safeties Morgan Burnett (quad) and Damarious Randall (concussion) both missed practice on Wednesday along with linebacker Christian Kirksey (chest). While none of these are of major concern yet as the team just played on Monday, these are three key pieces in the run defense that if they were to miss would be a significant downgrade for the Browns.

Rams Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Browns defense.

Jared Goff rebounded after a rough first game against the Panthers as he completed 68% of his passes in the win against the Saints last week. This was a unit that seemed more comfortable last week as he only threw the ball 28 times instead of the 39 that he threw against the Panthers. When the Rams pass offense is the most effective is when they can establish the run and beat you with the play-action pass. Cooper Kupp seems to be back to 100% health after the ACL injury in 2018 as he is leading the team in targets with 19 and broke through with a 66-yard reception outrunning the Saints safeties. This continues to be one of the more dangerous passing units when it is firing on all cylinders.

The Browns secondary is one that on paper looks great, but has yet to really be tested this year facing Marcus Mariota and a combination of Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk last week. On the season, this is a unit that has allowed just 192 yards passing per game. At the corner position, this is the youngest unit in football led by 22-year-old Pro Bowler Denzel Ward and 21-year-old rookie Greedy Williams who has been excellent so far this season. This is a unit that is setup by the pass rush as Myles Garrett is on a mission to backup his statements of winning the Defensive Player of the Year as the defensive end has five sacks through two games. This pace won’t continue as they were against backup left tackle Dennis Kelly and Kelvin Beachum who has seen better days. This week the matchup and key to this game will be Garrett against 37-year-old Andrew Whitworth who has made the Pro Bowl four times throughout his career.

Browns Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Rams defense.

The Browns rushing attack has been a consistent unit even if it has not broken out the big plays that we became accustomed to from Nick Chubb last season. Chubb is averaging 3.9 yards per carry but does not have a carry longer than 20 yards so far this season. Those long yard runs will come from the electric running back who has big-play potential any time he touches the ball. The offensive line of the Browns is one that is continuing to evolve with the loss of Kevin Zeitler as they traded him to the Giants in the offseason. Joel Bitonio after the game said that the line will continue to improve as it is just their second game together as they added Eric Kush and Chris Hubbard in the offseason.

The Rams are a unit that are beatable if you can get past their vaunted defensive line led by Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald. This is a unit that is built to stop the pass at the second and third levels with linebackers Cory Littleton, and safeties John Johnson and Eric Weddle being better against the pass than the run. This was a unit that was shredded in week 1 by Christian McCaffrey as he was able to get out in space and run for 6.7 yards per carry for 128 yards. Meanwhile, the defensive line dominated the run against the Saints as they stacked the box as they were comfortable with Teddy Bridgewater trying to beat them which essentially shut down Latavius Murray (1.4 yards per carry) and Alvin Kamara 3.5 yards per carry. This is a unit that will be up and down all year and entirely dependent on Brockers and Donald who are two of the best duos in football.

Browns Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Rams defense.

The Browns passing offense while statistically looked great on Monday Night struggled for a large majority of this game. Baker Mayfield was under constant duress as he was sacked three times and held onto the ball for far too long as the Jets defense confused him from time to time. Odell Beckham continues to show why he is one of the top receivers in the NFL as he broke an 89-yard touchdown on a quick slant that greatly inflated the Browns passing numbers as well as a tremendous one-handed catch in the first quarter along the sidelines. The Browns got some good news with Rashard Higgins returning to practice after missing the game against the Jets but will be without tight end David Njoku who suffered a broken wrist. The offensive line continues to be an issue for the Browns as Greg Robinson is not playing at nearly the level that he did last season after being ejected in Week 1 and Kendall Lamm remains doubtful for this game with a knee injury. This is a unit that is going to rely on their offensive line play to throw the deep passes and going up against Aaron Donald and crew will be a major test for the Browns this week.

The Rams defensive line thoroughly dominated the Saints this past week as Drew Brees suffered a thumb injury while under pressure from Aaron Donald. This remains a team that is set up to shut-down your passing attack with outside corners Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters and with Nickell Robey-Coleman out of the slot. This is a unit that through two weeks have not allowed a touchdown so far this season to Cam Newton and the combination of Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater. The Browns will likely get to pick their matchups in this one as they move Odell Beckham into all positions onto the field while the Rams typically do not move their corners which can lead to mismatches as the Saints took advantage of with Michael Thomas catching 10 passes last week. Expect the Browns to test the 33-year old Talib in whether he can keep up with Beckham’s speed.

Browns vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-2.8)13 (-2.8)13 (-2.1)11 (-3.3)
1Marcus Mariota59142424830324026.826.824.324.3
2Luke Falk482025198000009.

Jared Goff (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $6100)

1@ CAR7723391861140012.312.310.410.4
2vs NO701928283104-21242419.120.1
3PROJ-Dodds22362651.80.9260.120.720.720.7 (H=50)20.7 (H=62)
3PROJ-Tremblay23372671.61.1490. (H=48)20.2 (H=59)
3PROJ-Bloom19281971.90.6110.117.517.517.5 (H=37)17.5 (H=46)

Browns vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)27 (+5.1)29 (+8.5)28 (+6.0)28 (+7.6)
1Derrick Henry36198412175127.928.928.428.9
1Dion Lewis2637043601.
2LeVeon Bell6121680101061012.922.915.921.9
2Ty Montgomery243250331504.

Todd Gurley (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $6700)

1@ CAR541497011.04010.111.110.611.1
2vs NO451663143.04012.715.714.215.7
3PROJ-Dodds15660.72.5180.113.215.714.4 (H=29)15.7 (H=35)
3PROJ-Tremblay13610.72.0160.112.514.513.5 (H=26)14.5 (H=30)
3PROJ-Bloom15650. (H=20)12.6 (H=24)

Malcolm Brown (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4500)

1@ CAR211153200.00017.317.317.317.3
2vs NO25637011.01004.
3PROJ-Dodds9420.30.8506.57.36.9 (H=10)7.3 (H=13)
3PROJ-Tremblay8320.20.4304.75.14.9 (H=5)5.1 (H=7)
3PROJ-Bloom12570.60.0009.39.39.3 (H=17)9.3 (H=21)

Browns vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-13.1)1 (-19.2)1 (-16.0)1 (-19.2)
1A.J. Brown2643100000010.013.011.516.0
1Adam Humphries2211500000.
2Robby Anderson67648100008.
2Jamison Crowder67644000004.

Robert Woods (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $6200)

1@ CAR73138.070021608.616.612.616.6
2vs NO6922.03301904.
3PROJ-Dodds5.1640.41709.514.612.1 (H=21)14.6 (H=33)
3PROJ-Tremblay5.1660.41809.814.912.4 (H=22)14.9 (H=34)
3PROJ-Bloom5.0510.51708.813.811.3 (H=19)13.8 (H=30)

Cooper Kupp (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $6400)

1@ CAR69107.04600004.611.68.111.6
2vs NO6695.0120016012.617.615.120.6
3PROJ-Dodds5.1630.4130914.111.6 (H=20)14.1 (H=30)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.8600.30308.112.910.5 (H=17)12.9 (H=26)
3PROJ-Bloom6.0630.60009.915.912.9 (H=24)15.9 (H=37)

Brandin Cooks (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $6300)

1@ CAR7162.03900003.
2vs NO6843.074112013.616.615.116.6
3PROJ-Dodds4.6680.31308.913.511.2 (H=18)13.5 (H=28)
3PROJ-Tremblay4.9660.30308.713.611.2 (H=18)13.6 (H=29)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0550.515091210.5 (H=16)12.0 (H=23)

Josh Reynolds (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ CAR2520.000000000.00.0
2vs NO300.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.890.10001.52.31.9 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.680.10001.421.7 (H=1)2.0 (H=2)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Browns vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25 (+2.7)18 (+0.9)20 (+1.8)18 (+0.7)
1Delanie Walker296555217.522.520.022.5
2Daniel Brown500000.

Gerald Everett (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ CAR3011.0700.
2vs NO5053.02102.
3PROJ-Dodds2.2200. (H=5)5.4 (H=11)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.1190. (H=5)5.2 (H=10)
3PROJ-Bloom3.0230. (H=7)6.5 (H=15)

Tyler Higbee (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ CAR4054.020181210.012.0
2vs NO2432.02102.
3PROJ-Dodds2.0190. (H=4)5.1 (H=10)
3PROJ-Tremblay2.9290.24.175.6 (H=8)7.0 (H=18)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Browns vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)18T (+0.7)18T (+0.7)20T (+1.5) (+0.0)
1Cairo Santos2255111113.013.0
2Chandler Catanzaro0000000.00.0

Greg Zuerlein (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1@ CAR3433121215.015.0
2vs NO2233999.09.0

Browns vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)30 (+5.2)30 (+5.2)30 (+7.2)30 (+7.2)
1Tennessee Titans1334653001171723.023.0
2New York Jets2337531000555.05.0

Los Angeles Rams (FanDuel: $3600, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ CAR27.0034331200999.09.0
2vs NO9.0024421000448.08.0
3PROJ-Dodds23.903852.31.20.500. (H=22)8.4 (H=25)
3PROJ-Tremblay23.253702.31.20.400. (H=22)8.4 (H=25)

Rams vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-10.1)3 (-9.1)2 (-9.9)2 (-10.1)
1Cam Newton672538239013-2010.810.86.47.4
2Teddy Bridgewater561730165002508.

Baker Mayfield (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $6000)

1vs TEN7325382851300015.315.312.412.4
2@ NYJ6919353251100019.319.316.019.0
3PROJ-Dodds23352671.71.1280.120.520.520.5 (H=49)20.5 (H=62)
3PROJ-Tremblay22362581.61.200018.118.118.1 (H=40)18.1 (H=50)
3PROJ-Bloom21322281.51.1140.117.317.317.3 (H=37)17.3 (H=46)

Rams vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+5.7)27 (+6.6)29 (+6.3)29 (+7.7)
1Christian McCaffrey67191282111081032.942.937.945.9
1Alex Armah1211100006.
2Alvin Kamara4213450311506.
2Latavius Murray23570111602.

Nick Chubb (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $6500)

1vs TEN511775043.01008.511.510.011.5
2@ NYJ421862144.036015.819.817.819.8
3PROJ-Dodds19870.73.1240.115.91917.4 (H=38)19.0 (H=50)
3PROJ-Tremblay21950.73.0230.116.619.618.1 (H=41)19.6 (H=53)
3PROJ-Bloom16650.63.0220.112.915.914.4 (H=27)15.9 (H=37)

DErnest Johnson (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs TEN9113022.02303.
2@ NYJ2738043.0420586.58.0
3PROJ-Dodds2100.11.7120. (H=5)5.1 (H=11)
3PROJ-Tremblay2110.12.2170.146.25.1 (H=7)6.2 (H=15)
3PROJ-Bloom0000.000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Dontrell Hilliard (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs TEN1314121.01407.
2@ NYJ000000.000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds1401.31001.42.72.2 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
3PROJ-Tremblay1300.7600.91.61.4 (H=0)1.7 (H=1)
3PROJ-Bloom390.13.0310. (H=11)8.3 (H=23)

Rams vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-11.9)3 (-12.5)2 (-13.1)2 (-14.5)
1D.J. Moore631077600007.614.69.113.6
1Curtis Samuel62433200003.
2Michael Thomas6413108900008.918.913.918.9
2TreQuan Smith38334900004.

Odell Beckham (FanDuel: $8100, DraftKings: $7700)

1vs TEN73117.07100007.114.110.614.1
2@ NYJ63106.0161100022.
3PROJ-Dodds6.4910.600012.719.115.9 (H=29)19.1 (H=42)
3PROJ-Tremblay6.1910.600012.718.815.8 (H=29)18.8 (H=41)
3PROJ-Bloom7.0850.700012.719.716.2 (H=30)19.7 (H=45)

Jarvis Landry (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $5300)

1vs TEN7374.067011007.711.79.711.7
2@ NYJ6873.03200003.
3PROJ-Dodds4.3520.31307.311.69.5 (H=15)11.6 (H=26)
3PROJ-Tremblay3.9480.3140710.99.0 (H=14)10.9 (H=23)
3PROJ-Bloom4.0480.41507.711.79.7 (H=16)11.7 (H=26)

Damion Ratley (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3200)

1vs TEN3522.01700001.
2@ NYJ4232.0500000576.07.0
3PROJ-Dodds2.0230.10002.94.93.9 (H=4)4.9 (H=9)
3PROJ-Tremblay1.5190.10002.543.3 (H=3)4.0 (H=6)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0250.10003.15.14.1 (H=5)5.1 (H=10)

Rashard Higgins (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs TEN3232.04600004.
2@ NYJ000.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds1.1160.10002.23.32.8 (H=2)3.3 (H=4)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.9130.10001.92.82.4 (H=2)2.8 (H=3)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Taywan Taylor (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs TEN000.000000000.00.0
2@ NYJ1810.000000000.00.0
3PROJ-Dodds0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.3400000.40.70.6 (H=0)0.7 (H=0)
3PROJ-Bloom0.000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Rams vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-3.8)6 (-5.6)6 (-4.7)6 (-5.9)
1Greg Olsen63943603.
2Jared Cook44722502.

Demetrius Harris (FanDuel: $4000, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs TEN1310.000000.00.0
2@ NYJ5411.0400.
3PROJ-Dodds1.1110. (H=2)2.8 (H=4)
3PROJ-Tremblay0.670. (H=1)1.9 (H=2)
3PROJ-Bloom2.0170. (H=3)4.3 (H=10)

Rams vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+2.7)25T (+2.7)28T (+5.0) (+0.0)
1Joey Slye23339912.012.0
2Wil Lutz33009912.012.0

Austin Seibert (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)

1vs TEN0012111.01.0
2@ NYJ3322111113.013.0

Rams vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-1.8)11 (-1.8)7 (-3.3)7 (-3.3)
1Carolina Panthers3034911000332.02.0
2New Orleans Saints2738030100555.05.0

Cleveland Browns (FanDuel: $3900, DraftKings: $2800)

1vs TEN43.0033940010660.00.0
2@ NYJ3.00262401006613.013.0
3PROJ-Dodds27.003972. (H=11)5.9 (H=15)
3PROJ-Tremblay26.253832.41.10.600. (H=16)7.4 (H=22)